University of San Jose - Recoletos COLLEGE OF COMMERCE HRD 2 -- 03:40pm - 05:20pm Ms. Ava-lou Perez (c) 2013 SUMMER SEMESTER

1. Forecasting
• a planning tool that helps
management in its attempts to cope
with the uncertainty of the future.

2. Scientific Methods :
Statistical Method – excellent in extrapolating labor
demand based on historical trends.
Judgmental Method – this qualitative approach
avails of the opinion of department managers on
their future staffing needs.

3. Some managers are prone to be “empire builders”.
In this case, the so-called Delphi technique could be applied.

4. Determining the Future Demand
Forecast of labor demand revolves around identifying job categories and
or types of skills currently existing and needed in the future.
Permanent Temporary
Technicians 80 10
Engineers 8 0
IT Support Staff 8 6
Production Operators 500 20
Production
Supervisors
3 0
Total 599 36
Markov analysis is where staffing tables are a depiction of the jobs within
the organization.

7. Internal Supply Considerations
Turnover rate – is a very important factor to be considered in your
internal manpower supply.
Two kinds of turnover:
RESIGNATION can be due to :
• accepting a job elsewhere
• poor health
• putting one’s own business, taking up further studies or raising a family
• migrating abroad
• accepting a voluntary retrenchment
• relocating to another place

8. DISMISSAL can be due to :
• misconduct
• forcible resignation due to poor performance or other reasons by
paying separation pay or “ex gratia”
• authorized causes under the law such as retrenchment due to
losses or to avoid losses, automation, retirement, or sickness that
will incapacitate the employee
For purpose of “exit interview” to determine and tally the real
causes of resignations for remedial purposes, employees who were
dismissed are not subject to exit interview.

9. formula to determine turnover rate:
Number of staff leaving
--------------------------------------------- x 100
Average number employed in a year
The quotient is the so-called wastage index.
For example, if the number of people leaving in a year is 60
while the average number of employed in the period is 500, the
turnover rate or wastage index is ?

10. Stability index, calculated as follows:
Number of employees with one year
service at 31 December
------------------------------------------------ X 100
Number employed one year ago
For example, if the company employed 500 at the start of 2009
and of these, 440 remain in the company at the end of the year,
then the stability index would be ?

11. Assessment of the Internal Labor Supply
If in the forecast of your demand, you foresee an
excess of your present manpower, then, you will have to
plan how to downsize your staff at the appropriate time
by way of normal attrition, voluntary or compulsory
retrenchment.