An informal talk on the history, state of the art, and future of robots, with some career advice (for humans).

1. Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
Why (Not) to Fear the Impending
Robot Revolution
Nick Morozovsky, PhD
Co-Founder, Accel Robotics
@DrNickMo
February 7, 2017
1

2. Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
XX
Outline
• History
• State of the Art
• Future
• Conclusions
2

3. Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
History
• Rossum’s Universal Robots - 1921
• “Robot” from Czech rabota, meaning
“forced labor”
3
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R.U.R.

4. Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
History
• Science fiction and pop culture have
rapidly outpaced actual development
4

5. Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
History
• Meanwhile, back at the lab…
• Repetitive work in a static
environment
5
Leg Lab

6. Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
State of the Art
Challenges in Robotics
MobilityPerception
Manipulation
“Go get me a beer
from the fridge”
Stairs
Doors
Sand, eggs, clothes
Unstructured
terrain
Where to
grasp object
Localization
Mapping
Identification
6Deep Learning

7. Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
State of the Art
Deformable Objects are Hard (…Soft)
Abbeel Lab, UC Berkeley, 2010, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KKUaVzf3Oqw

8. Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
State of the Art
Walking is Hard
IEEE Spectrum 2015 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0TaYhjpOfo

9. Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
State of the Art
Robotics Landscape
Cost ($)
Functionality
Toys
Service
102 106103 104
Cleaners
101
Medical
Manufacturing
Military
Consumer Commercial Industrial
9
105

10. Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
State of the Art
Drones
• Who wouldn’t want a drone
always following you around?
Chris Anderson, 2015
XX
Zano
Airdog
Lily
Robot
Dragonfly

11. Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
State of the Art
Crowdfunded Social Robots
• Caveat emptor
• Pet peeve: fake robot videos
AidoBuddyAlpha2 Jibo

12. Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
State of the Art
Crowdfunded Social Robots
Alpha2
2015 https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/alpha-2-the-first-humanoid-robot-for-the-family-social#/

13. Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
State of the Art
Crowdfunded Social Robots
Buddy
2015 https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/buddy-your-family-s-companion-robot-family-social#/

14. Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
State of the Art
Crowdfunded Social Robots
Aido
2016 https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/aido-next-gen-home-robot--2#/

15. Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
State of the Art
Crowdfunded Social Robots
Jibo
2014 https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/jibo-the-world-s-first-social-robot-for-the-home#/

16. Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
State of the Art
Crowdfunded Social Robots
Jibo
2016 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YKhVCRbRUS0

17. Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
State of the Art
Consumer Robots are Shit
• Insane cost sensitivity
• Slow manufacturing cycles
• Obsolete before it hits store
shelves
• Incredibly limited functionality vs.
incredibly high expectations
• No killer app

18. Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
State of the Art
Commercial Robots – Robot-as-a-Service
• Robots providing consumer-facing
services in commercial spaces
• Store greeter
• Telepresence
• Product finder
• Security patrol
• Room service delivery
Pepper
SoftBank Robotics
Beam
Suitable Technologies
navii
Fellow Robots
K5
Knightscope
Relay
Savioke

19. Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
Future
Self-Driving Cars
• Tens of thousands of lives saved
• Millions of jobs lost
• Significant contraction in automotive and
related markets (dealers, service, road
construction, parking, insurance, etc.)
• Energy, time, and space savings
• Good-bye traffic and parking
• No organ donors (just 3D print them!)
19

20. Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
Future
Career Advice (for Humans)
• Avoid repetitive work
• Composing pop music, writing sitcoms,
diagnosing patients, legal discovery
• Oldest profession
• Work with robots/AI, not against
• Stick to high-mix physical labor
• Luxury, artisanal goods
• Deformable objects (clothes, cheese making)
20
schoolhouseartisancheese.com

21. Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
Conclusions
• Rossum’s Universal Robots ends in a robot revolution which kills all humans
(save one)
• Life doesn’t have to imitate art
• What happens when robots and AI can perform any task better, safer, and
cheaper than a human?
• Humans have survived (and prospered?) through the agricultural, industrial,
and communications revolutions
21

22. Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
Conclusions
Nick’s Rules of Robotics
1. Never disassemble a working robot.
2. If it works the first time, you’re testing it wrong.
3. When in doubt, lubricate.
4. Never underestimate the estimation problem.
5. If specs for a part are listed differently in two
places, they’re both wrong.
6. Glue, tape, and zip-ties are not engineering
solutions (though they might work in a pinch).
7. Do not leave lithium polymer batteries charging
unattended.
8. Always have a complete CAD model, including
screws and fasteners, before constructing your
robot.
9. Avoid using slip rings if at all possible.
10.Clamping collars are always better than set
screws. If you have to use set screws (e.g. for
cost reasons), use a driving flat and an
appropriate thread-locking agent.
11.Always check polarity before plugging a
component into a power source.
22