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The Real Open Source Opportunity

                                                  Tim O’Reilly

                                                March 17, 2010




Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Open Source in the Age of the Cloud

                                                     Tim O’Reilly

                                                  March 17, 2010




Wednesday, March 17, 2010
“Major Strasser has been shot...
       Round up the usual suspects”




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Open Source              Web 2.0   Cloud Computing

       “You keep using that word. I do not think it
       means what you think it means.”




Wednesday, March 17, 2010
You may think of me as a book publisher




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Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
What We Really Do At O'Reilly




                      Change the world by spreading the
                          knowledge of innovators




Wednesday, March 17, 2010
O’Reilly Radar Methodology
    “The future is here. It’s just not evenly distributed
     yet.” - William Gibson
    We “watch the alpha geeks” and think about the
     futures they are living in
    We then look for trend data that tells us that a
     particular future is becoming mainstream

    I’m going to tell you some seemingly unconnected
     technology stories from the front lines of
     innovation. Then we’re going to connect the dots.




Wednesday, March 17, 2010
“I’m an inventor.
                             I became interested in
                             long term trends
                             because an invention
                             has to make sense in the
                             world in which it is
                             finished, not the world in
                             which it is started.”
                                         -Ray Kurzweil




Wednesday, March 17, 2010
<1>




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Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
What we see here
    Peer-to-peer credit card payments
    Social networks used for risk evaluation

    The PC is out of the loop
    The phone is a sensor platform
         – Hardware add-on innovation
         – Location based sensing
         – Touch screen UI
    Processing is done in real time in the cloud
         – Allowing processing that can’t be done on the device
         – Big data analysis
         – Building new networks on the back of existing ones
    Reinventing a major industry


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<2>




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The cloud future includes...
    Devices acting as sensors for intelligent data
     collection
    Devices whose UI is on the web rather than the
     device
    Feeding data into multiple online services that will
     turn into a full-on sensor web
    Setting the stage for robotics, augmented reality,
     and the next generation of personal electronics




Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Some of the open source hardware talks at OSCON
    Arduino: Open Source Hardware Hacking from the
     Software Nerd Perspective http://www.arduino.cc/
    Plumbing: Parallel Programming for Artists and
     Makers http://www.concurrency.cc/
    Face detection on the iPhone with OpenCV
    Environmental Monitoring with Arduino and
     compatibles
    Open Source Data Visualization on Open Source
     Hardware
    Software Control of Home Automation Systems
    New Open Source Tools for Creating Embedded
     Linux Devices




Wednesday, March 17, 2010
<3>




Wednesday, March 17, 2010
The smart phone plus local search. Today pizza,




                              Pizelle Pizza, 50 Post Street
                              California Pizza Kitchen, 53 3rd Street
                              Escape from NY Pizza, 333 Bush Street




Wednesday, March 17, 2010
An application running on a
               mobile device whose user
               interface is driven by sensors:

               - Touch screen
               - Motion and proximity sensors
               - Microphone
               - GPS or cell tower triangulation



Wednesday, March 17, 2010
An application that depends on
               cooperating cloud data services:

               - Speech recognition
               - Search
               - Location data

               In real time.



Wednesday, March 17, 2010
<4>




Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
•Search in plain English
                            •Search by voice
                            •Traffic view
                            •Search along route
                            •Satellite view
                            •Street view




Wednesday, March 17, 2010
An application that
               depends on cooperating
               cloud data services:

               - Location
               - Search
               - Speech recognition
               - Live Traffic
               - Imagery

Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Open Source              Web 2.0   Cloud Computing

       “You keep using that word. I do not think it
       means what you think it means.”




Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
The Internet Operating System is
                    A Data Operating System




Wednesday, March 17, 2010
The Internet Operating System is a Data Operating System
    It helps applications find out about
         –   People
         –   Places
         –   Things
         –   Prices
         –   Documents
         –   Images
         –   Sounds
         –   Relationships
         –   ...

    and helps people interact with them through services
         –   Search
         –   Payment
         –   Matching and Recognition
         –   ...

Wednesday, March 17, 2010
In Real Time




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Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
“Augmented Reality”




Wednesday, March 17, 2010
The Yelp Monocle
    Find cafes nearby.




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Wednesday, March 17, 2010
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But how do you decide what data to show?




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Wednesday, March 17, 2010
“We don’t have better algorithms than anyone
       else. We just have more data.”

                            --Peter Norvig, Chief Scientist, Google




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Wednesday, March 17, 2010
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Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
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Wednesday, March 17, 2010
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The underdog is the ally of open source




Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Potential open source supporters
       Search: Microsoft
       Maps: Microsoft, Yelp, Foursquare
       Speech: Nuance, Microsoft
       Social Graph: Google
       Payment: ??
       Cloud infrastructure: VMware
       Smartphones: Google
       Device Operating Systems: Google




Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
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Interoperable web services, open data, and
       standard protocols are at least as important as
       open source




Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Switching tracks (a bit)...




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Wednesday, March 17, 2010
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Wednesday, March 17, 2010
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Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
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Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Open Source and Scientific Data
     “With the very pressing issue of climate change, releasing raw data is vital.
  There can be no excuse not to. Releasing source code is optional, truly
  great for open source review - but very dangerous if everyone just re-runs
  the same code with the same baked-in implicit and explicit assumptions and
  errors.

  In discussion with our Chief Scientist, we have agreed it's much better to
  publish the following:

    - the raw data and the circumstances of its collection
    - the method and assumptions used to process the data (in words and
    equations)
    - the results of the processing
    - the known limitations on the method and significance of the assumptions

  The computer code should be written from scratch as many times as possible
  to reduce the chance that it affected the results in any way.”

                                                        --Gavin Starks, CEO, AMEE




Wednesday, March 17, 2010
AMEE - the world’s energy meter




Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
For more information
   The Open Source Paradigm Shift (2003)
    http://bit.ly/cKLSUP
   What is Web 2.0? (2005)
    http://oreil.ly/a0zT65
   Web Squared: Web 2.0 Five Years On (2009)
    http://bit.ly/kEKgs
   Government as a Platform (2010)
    http://opengovernment.labs.oreilly.com/
   Ongoing commentary
    http://radar.oreilly.com
    http://twitter.com/timoreilly
    http://buzz.google.com/timoreilly


Wednesday, March 17, 2010

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