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Cpec and reservations
- 2. Why Pak’s Economy is Sinking 1. Budget 2019-20 Pakistan Economic Survey 1. Growth Rate 6.2 to 3.3 percent, next year 2.4% 2. Inflation 13% 3. Loan = IMF Bailout $6 bn 4. Low Resources/High Non- development expenditures/debt servicing(30.7%) 5. 1% tax collection 6. Corruption 7. High Military Expenditures/National Development Council
- 3. Pak’s Economy Woes: The way forward 1. Decreasing Foreign Exchange Reserves 2. Low Export 3. High Inflation 4. Growing Fiscal Deficit and Current Account Deficit
- 4. The Way forward: Steps for the Government 1. To attract more foreign direct investment (FDI) 2. Ease of Doing Business Report 3. Boost international image 4. Ease its visa/E-visa policies 5. Flexible tax policies 6. Build domestic industry 7. Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) 8. Modernize Industrial sector
- 6. “Our relations are based on the shared ideals and principles of mutual trust, mutual benefit and mutual respect”, said Nawaz Sharif. (BBC.2015)
- 7. OBOR CPEC
- 8. What is CPEC? It can best be understood from an interview with Urooj Raza, former Federal Minister for Planning and Development Dr. Ahsan Iqbal described CPEC in these words. One belt One Road Westward integration of china 2025 Vision 7 pillars- Location of Pakistan South Asia, Central Asia, China and East Asia.
- 9. Four different sectors are being selected of which 1. CPEC: Energy 2. Gwadar Port 3. Rail and Road connectivity. 4. ML-1 Upgradation
- 10. Provinces Share: 1. Punjab gets $11 billion. 2. Sindh was $9 billion 3. No mention of Baluchistan
- 12. President Pervez Musharraf said, “If we see this whole region, it is like a funnel. The top of the funnel is this wide area of Central Asia and also China's western region. And this funnel gets narrowed on through Afghanistan and Pakistan and the end of this funnel is Gwadar port. So, this funnel, futuristically, is the economic funnel of this whole region.”
- 15. OBOR CPEC
- 16. Regional Importance of CPEC
- 18. Sector Est. Cost in Billions USD Energy 33.79 Road 5.90 Rail 3.69 Mass transit in Lahore 1.60 Gwadar Port 0.66 China Pakistan fiber Optics 0.04 Total 45.69 Source: Government of Pakistan: SAID
- 20. Indian Reservations 1. The route-through G.B and AJK. 2. How China can pass its corridor route on long term basis. 3. China is enclosing India on Indian Ocean 4. Pakistan can bloc Indian entry towards gulf and Hormuz. 5. Pakistan will free its trading ports
- 21. CPEC and Indian Reservation 1. MILITARY PURPOSE OF GWADAR
- 24. CPEC and Indian Reservation 2. INDIA ON GILGIT & KASHMIR
- 26. CPEC and Indian Reservation 3. INDIAN INVOLVEMENT IN BALUCHISTAN
- 29. US Reservations 1. US could use Gwadar against Iran nuke. 2. It passes through a disputed territory. 3. China is enclosing India on Indian Ocean 4. Diego Garcia 5. Chinese regional influence increasing. 6. China export oil to North Korea
- 30. CPEC and UNITED SATES Reservation 1. Buffer against Iran
- 32. CPEC and UNITED SATES Reservation 2. Short route to CARs after 50 Years
- 34. CPEC and UNITED SATES Reservation 3. Kashmir, unrecognized
- 35. Secretary Mattis, “The One Belt, One Road also goes through disputed territory, and I think that in itself shows the vulnerability of trying to establish that sort of a dictate.” (Anwar, I.2017)
- 36. CPEC and UNITED SATES Reservation 4. Diego Garcia & Guam
- 37. 4. Diego Garcia
- 39. CPEC and UNITED SATES Reservation 5. South China Sea & 9 Dash Line
- 42. South China Sea & 9 Dash Line
Editor's Notes
- June 11 and was only able to pass it on June 28 Growth Rate: −0.4% (19/20f) 5.0% (20/21f) 2. 2017 was 4.09%, 2018 was 5.08%, 2019 was 10.58%, 5. the tax burden in Pakistan falls on the poor 7. 18-23% Military budget every year. 50 commercial entities generating some $1.5bn annually voluntary budget cut by Army, but increase of 17.6% from last year
- 1. F.E.R was measured at 14.4 USD bn in Nov 2020, Foreign Exchange Market: Forex 4. A current account deficit/surplus is when a country imports more goods, services, and capital than it exports. A fiscal deficit/surplus is a shortfall in a government's income compared with its spending.
- 2. Pak ranked 136th out of 190 Countries; ease customs laws, improve the security. 7. 2018, 107/140, & 2019 110/141
- 1. Originally valued at $47 Billion, the value of CPEC projects is worth more than $70 Billion as of 2020.
- National Development of Reforms Commission of China and Planning Commission of Pakistan jointly. 2007 Musharaf held its inauguration and handed the port to Port Singapore Authority For seven years it was used for transshipment of fertilizers. In June 2014, Pakistan cancelled the 40-years contract with PSA-china interest. 2. The idea of CPEC came in Feb, 2013 when Pakistan decided to (PSA) to China Overseas Port Holdings On 28 July 2017 verdict of Supreme Court against Nawaz Sharif
- Our economy cannot flourish without development in Energy sector. 70% of the CPEC project would be invested in Energy 4. Karachi to Peshawar then the speed of this train would be 140 km/h.
- Western route which will start from Gwadar, Sohrab, Quetta, Zob, Dera Ismail Khan and Peshawar to Khunjrab. Central route which will go from Gwadar to Khuzdar, RatoDaro and far and away. Eastern route from Khuzdar, Lahore and Islamabad to Khunjrab.
- On February 1, 2007 government signed forty-year accord with the PSA. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) signed by Hujin Tao and President Musharaf in 2006 provided path for CPEC
- Gwadar has close proximity with Iran, Afghanistan, Hormuz, Oman, Saudi Arabia and it’s on the mouth of Gulf region. Karachi and Bin Qasim ports are over populated and can’t face the burden more Keti, Somiani and other petty-ports have no capacity to dock S-type cargo ships and they are fish harbors First commercial vessel ‘Pos Glory’ called on the port on March 15, 2008.
- In 2050 oil end up in Gulf By 2050 US will import 80% energy requirement from CARs-Gwadar short route TAPI: 1,814 km, 1.2 trillion cubic feet per annum
- 1. Prince Mohamamd bin Salman visited, wished to invest in Ricko Dick’s gold and copper. a bridge of 40 km from Gwadar to Muscat.
- 4. via this it can pressurize India to liberate Kashmir. 5. from the Indian threats as in past India had attacked on Karachi Port.
- Pakistan wants strongest Navy or naval forces against India infrastructure developments of CPEC will enhance the influence of Pakistan on Afghanistan and Central Asian States. China is encircling India from South, East and West. Pakistan wants strongest Navy or naval forces against India infrastructure developments of CPEC will enhance the influence of Pakistan on Afghanistan and Central Asian States. China is encircling India from South, East and West.
- Bangladesh-China-India Myanmar Corridor OBOR including CPEC and Chinese investment in Hambantota in Sri Lanka is clarifying that China has economic reasons in CPEC rather than military. No Chinese and Pakistani army personnel have been deployed, except those personnel (14506) deployed for the security of Chinese official (7036) in all provinces including. Special Security Division consists of 9 infantry battalions and 6 Civil Armed forces to guard CPEC. Pakistan is investing Rs.21. 5 billion for the security CPEC is not individual project but it is part of OBOR
- CPEC is the biggest opportunity for Kashmir; it can be center for India for regional connectivity with Central and South Asia. CPEC would connect India with Silk route via Kashmir India constructing 198 km wall, 135 feet wide and 10 feet high
- India supporting BLA Pakistan successful operations (Zar-i-Azb and Rad ul Fasad) ETIM is also threat to Pakistan. Investing in Chabahar against Gwadar- $8 bn
- World War II (1939-45) – Cold War SEATO, CENTO Afghan Russia war US hugged Pakistan War on Terror 2001 After the cold war US is being monitoring Indian Ocean so closely.
- since 2009 China has surpassed US as the largest partner of the African continent. African countries which only hold 9-10% of the world’s oil China-Africa trade volume 20% reaching $216 billion in 2013 Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) Shortest route for Russia & US to Arabian Sea
- Diego Garcia an island was a part of British Colony 1968 to 1973 Area of 30 km on the India Ocean it is absolutely wrong because the distance between Diego and Gwadar is 3,781 km
- Chinese project signed with Pakistan and Sri Lanka are deemed of growing influence on Indian Ocean and her military footprint to Guam (an US island) 540 km2 Annexation form Spain April 11, 1899 Population 168,485 (2020)
- 11 billion barrel of oil 190 trillion feet of natural gas 10% of world fisheries 30% global trade to other regions
- 200 nautical miles all accept except China per Exclusive Economic Zone Spratly Islands claimed by all states China is building article Islands China doing so, to became super power
- 1. When Malacca Strait will be blocked by U.S, Gwadar would assist Chines trade 2. China will fight for 9 dash line with state, CPEC short route