The past, present and future dynamics of salt intrusion in the Mekong Delta
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Presentation by Sepehr Eslami (Deltares) at the Seminar Models and decision-making in the wake of climate uncertainties, during the Deltares Software Days South-East Asia 2023. Wednesday, 22 February 2023, Singapore.
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The past, present and future dynamics of salt intrusion in the Mekong Delta
- 1. The past, present and future dynamics of salt intrusion in the Mekong Delta Sepehr Eslami1,4 M. van der Vegt, P. Hoekstra 1 F. Roelvink4, R. Nieboer4, K. Sloff4, Dinh Phuong Trang4, B. Stengs4 Nguyen Trung Nam, Tho Tran Quang, Do Duc Dung2 Nguyen Nghia Hung, Quan Le3 Herman Kernkamp, Arthur van Dam4 P. Minderhoud4,5,6, Jannis Hoch1, Edwin Sutanudjaja1 Stephen Darby, Hal Voepel7 Daniel Parsons, Grigorios Vasilopoulos8 Marie-Noelle Woillez9 M. vd Wegen10,4, Vo Thanh10, S. Kantoush11, Doan van Binh11 1 Utrecht University, Utrecht, NL 2 South. Inst. for Water Resources Planning, HCMC, VN 3 South. Inst. of Water Resources and Research, HCMC, VN 4 Deltares, Delft, NL 5 Padova University, Padova, IT 6 Wageningen University, Wageningen, NL 7 Southampton University, Southampton, UK 8 Univeristy of Hull, Hull, UK 9 AFD, Paris, FR 10 IHE-Delft, NL 11 Kyoto University, Japan Dynamics of salt intrusion in the Mekong Delta
- 2. Content Dynamics of salt intrusion in the Mekong Delta • A focus on model applications in the geoscientifically complex system of the Mekong Delta • The context and the trends of salt intrusion • Historical trends • Future projections (integrated modelling) • Other applications: • Operational salinity system • Sand budget of the Mekong Delta
- 3. • 20-160Mt/yr of sediment Milliman & Fransworth (2011), Kummu et al. (2014), Nowacki et al. (2015), Darby et al. (2016), Vo et al. (2017), • 300 - 550 billion m3/yr fresh water • Seasonality NE SW • 13 completed hydropower dams • 170 hydropower, 180 irrigation operational along tributaries 10 Mill. m3/yr Bravard et al. (2013) Dynamics of salt intrusion in the Mekong Delta
- 4. The “rice bowl” of South East Asia! The Mekong Delta Population 22 million 50% of Nation’s Food Dynamics of salt intrusion in the Mekong Delta
- 7. Historical Event Dynamics of salt intrusion in the Mekong Delta
- 8. • Salt intrusion, key to land use in VMD. • More and more reports of saline water intrusion. Dynamics of salt intrusion in the Mekong Delta
- 9. 2016 drought Dynamics of salt intrusion in the Mekong Delta
- 10. 2016 Climate Change in the Mekong 2015 for 2050 Dynamics of salt intrusion in the Mekong Delta
- 11. Dynamics of salt intrusion in the Mekong Delta
- 12. Historical trends Dynamics of salt intrusion in the Mekong Delta
- 13. What is salt intrusion? Ocean Forces • Tides • Water level • Wind Against River Force • Discharge Interaction within a geometry/bathymetry Dynamics of salt intrusion in the Mekong Delta
- 14. Kratie My Thuan Fresh water inflow? Tidal Signal Within the delta? Ocean Forces ? Binh Dai Hung My Dynamics of salt intrusion in the Mekong Delta
- 15. The Mekong Deltaic System Dynamics of salt intrusion in the Mekong Delta
- 16. Climate Change in the Mekong Environmental 5-10% • Salt intrusion • Higher tides • City flooding • Bank erosion Dynamics of salt intrusion in the Mekong Delta
- 17. - 1D/2DV rivers and canals ▪ 1400 channels ▪ 4300 profiles - 54 Movable dams - Observation points - 2DV & 3D - Water demand - Offshore boundary Tidal + subtidal - Discharge upstream Modelling Eslami et al. (2020, 2021) Dynamics of salt intrusion in the Mekong Delta
- 18. The 2016 historical saline water intrusion Eslami et al. (2020, 2021) Dynamics of salt intrusion in the Mekong Delta
- 19. Future projections Dynamics of salt intrusion in the Mekong Delta
- 20. Dynamics of salt intrusion in the Mekong Delta
- 21. Future Scenarios Integrated approach Coastal - Inland Upstream - Downstream Surface water - Groundwater Climate Change - Anthropogenic Subsidence Erosion Upstream Discharge Downstream SLR Dynamics of salt intrusion in the Mekong Delta
- 22. 3D Hydro-Geological Modelling Source: Minderhoud et. al (2017) Dynamics of salt intrusion in the Mekong Delta
- 23. 3D Surface water modelling Eslami et. al (2020 & 2021) Dynamics of salt intrusion in the Mekong Delta
- 24. Environmental pathways Extent of salt intrusion in the delta Dynamics of salt intrusion in the Mekong Delta
- 25. Dynamics of salt intrusion in the Mekong Delta Other applications: 1. Salinity operational system
- 26. Model Adapter Data feed Daily Report Model Salinity forecast Water quality monitoring Meteo-data imports Visualisation Dynamics of salt intrusion in the Mekong Delta FEWS SYSTEM
- 27. Provide relevant data to different users Địa điểm Quan trắc +1 ngày +7 ngày Cổ Chiên (Giao Thanh) 4.9 6.5 3.0 Cống Bắc Trang 3.5 4.4 3.2 … … … … Chú ý: các dự báo chỉ có tính chất tham khảo Web @ Forecaster + IT Manager Public Farmer Webpage to be included in DONRE’s website FEWS GUI Dynamics of salt intrusion in the Mekong Delta
- 28. Dynamics of salt intrusion in the Mekong Delta Other applications: 2. Sand Budget of the Mekong Delta
- 29. Observing movement of sand dunes across the delta Dynamics of salt intrusion in the Mekong Delta
- 30. Observing Sand stock by 550 km of seismic survey across the delta Dynamics of salt intrusion in the Mekong Delta
- 31. 31 Actions: - We developed a 2D variation of the model - Include sand transport in VMD model - Initial bed composition - Sand properties - Calibrate model against observed suspended and bedload transports - Derive the sand budget using the VMD model - Knowledge transfer and training From Vo et al. (2021) Modelling Dynamics of salt intrusion in the Mekong Delta
- 32. Sand Budget Dynamics of salt intrusion in the Mekong Delta
- 33. • Within coastal/deltaic environments, climate impact cannot be addressed independent of local drivers of change. • Addressing environmental challenges in isolation will likely lead to other types of environmental risks. • Impactful climate adaptation measures can only be developed by integrated system understanding. • Integration is more than an engineering exercise. • In light of the challenges imposed by climate change, integrated modelling in multidisciplinary set up is inevitable. • Coupling hydrological-hydrogeological-hydrodynamic-morphodynamic is now more possible than ever. • Computational capacity has provided new opportunities. When it comes to models Dynamics of salt intrusion in the Mekong Delta