Google Trends versus US Election 2016
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Did Google search traffic predict the outcome of the US election in 2016 as it did in 2012? Or was it another upset? Are the parties becoming savvier in manipulating the search space?
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Google Trends versus US Election 2016
- 1. US Election 2016 10 Swing States Google v Results 11.11.2016
- 2. US Search Volume – last 30 days Google Prediction - Trump wins! Actual 47.7% / 47.5% - Clinton wins! Source: Google Trends FBI Investigation ReopensThird TV Debate
- 4. Ohio – last 30 days Google Prediction - Trump wins! Polls – Clinton ahead Actual 44% / 52% - Trump wins! Source: Google Trends
- 5. Florida – last 30 days Source: Google Trends Google Prediction - Trump wins! Polls – Clinton ahead Actual 48% / 49% - Trump wins!
- 6. Virginia – last 30 days Source: Google Trends Google Prediction - Trump wins! Polls – Clinton ahead Actual 50% / 45% - Clinton wins!
- 7. Iowa – last 30 days Source: Google Trends Google Prediction - Trump wins! Polls – Clinton ahead Actual 42% / 52% - Trump wins!
- 8. Wisconsin – last 30 days Source: Google Trends Google Prediction - Trump wins! Polls – Clinton ahead Actual 47% / 48% - Trump wins!
- 9. Colorado – last 30 days Source: Google Trends Google Prediction - Trump wins! Polls – Clinton ahead Actual 47% / 45% - Clinton wins!
- 10. Nevada – last 30 days Google Prediction - Trump wins! Polls – Clinton ahead Actual 48% / 46% - Clinton wins!
- 11. New Hampshire– last 30 days Source: Google Trends Google Prediction - Trump wins! Polls – Clinton ahead Actual 47% / 47% - Not called yet
- 12. North Carolina – last 30 days Source: Google Trends Google Prediction - Trump wins! Polls – Trump ahead Actual 47% / 51% - Trump wins!
- 13. Arizona – last 30 days Source: Google Trends Google Prediction - Trump wins! Polls – Trump ahead Actual 45% / 50% - Trump wins!
- 14. Google’s Verdict
- 15. Trump
- 16. Google versus Polls State Polls Google Ohio Fail Correct Florida Fail Correct Virginia Correct Fail Iowa Fail Correct Wisconsin Fail Correct Colorado Correct Fail Nevada Correct Fail New Hampshire N / A N / A North Carolina Correct Correct Arizona Correct Correct Total 5 6
- 17. Conclusions Google search traffic predicted the outcome of 8/9 swing states in 2012 – 89% but just 6/9 in 2016 - 67% In the swing states the fastest rising searches were – Clinton with FBI, Investigation, Scandal & Wikileaks Trump with Can Win, Rally, Accusers, Iraq & Michael Moore Clinton’s campaign was all about Together / Stronger yet the searches were quite negative while the reverse is true of Trump where his rhetoric was divisive & negative yet the searches were more positive – he definitely won in the search space in these states Nationally Natasha Stoyoff & Jessica Leeds were highly searched with Trump but not in the swing states except Virginia...which may explain why it went Clinton and the others didn’t