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PEORIA Report 3: The GOP Debates Begin, Late Summer 2015

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-WORDS IN EDGEWISE: You can probably guess which candidate dominated the conversation. But you might be surprised at who else has been talked about most.
-BAD, BAD MOOD: We will identify the only candidate for whom mentions with positive sentiments outnumbered those with negative sentiments.
-THE NEW SPIN ROOM: We will display the top three retweets from each party after both debates, and the top retweet from each of the Republican candidates.
-BELTWAY DIFFERENCES: We will distinguish between candidates who got more attention in mainstream than in social media, and vice versa.
-RATINGS: And, as is our custom, we will evaluate how well each candidate’s campaign garnered and leveraged public echoes of what they said during the time period on our scale of 1 to 11.

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PEORIA Report 3: The GOP Debates Begin, Late Summer 2015

  1. 1. Release Date September 29, 2015 The GOP Debates Begin Late Summer 2015 Michael Cornfield Associate Professor Lara Brown Associate Professor Jamie P. Chandler Data Scientist
  2. 2. Peoria Project GW’s Graduate School of Political Management tracks what’s being said about the 2016 presidential candidates and their campaigns with Zignal Lab’s real-time, cross media story-tracking platform. • How do campaign words and messages “play in Peoria?”
  3. 3. SHARE OF VOICE MEASURING ECHOES AS THE DEBATES BEGIN
  4. 4. Indicates 3 days before/after each debate; Indicate trend lines GOP AVERAGES 3X MORE MENTIONS THAN DEMOCRATS
  5. 5. Indicates 3 days before/after each debate TRUMP WINS GOP MENTIONS RACE Average Mentions per Day Trump 282,042 Cruz 38,786 Bush 36,123 Fiorina 24,065 Carson 22,701 Walker* 20,306 Rubio 15,467 Kasich 13,277 Huckabee 12,145 Christie 11,490 Paul 11,188
  6. 6. SANDERS OVERTAKES CLINTON IN MENTIONS RACE Average Mentions per Day Clinton 83,536 Biden 9,987 Sanders 75,920 OMalley 1,978 Webb 668 Chafee 497 Indicates 3 days before/after each debate
  7. 7. MAINSTREAM MEDIA EMPHASIZES ESTABLISHMENT CANDIDATES
  8. 8. DEBATES CHANGE GOP SHARES OF VOICE
  9. 9. SANDERS LEADS CLINTON POST LABOR DAY
  10. 10. MAINSTREAM MEDIA DOMINATED BY CLINTON; SANDERS EVEN WITH HER IN SOCIAL
  11. 11. SENTIMENT A POSITIVE UPTURN IN SEPTEMBER?
  12. 12. Indicates 3 days before/after each debate; Indicate trend lines IS THERE A TREND TO THE POSITIVE?
  13. 13. GOP SENTIMENT: CARSON AND FIORINA DO BETTER THAN TRUMP
  14. 14. SANDERS THE ONLY DEMOCRAT WITH NET POSITIVE SENTIMENT
  15. 15. TOP FOX NEWS DEBATE TWEETS 8/7/15 TO 8/9/15
  16. 16. TOP 3 RETWEETED RESPONSES TO FOX DEBATE #2 Donald Trump 6,027 Retweets #1 Donald Trump 12,304 Retweets #3 Donald Trump 4,120 Retweets
  17. 17. GOP CANDIDATES’ RESPONSES TO FOX DEBATE #1 #1 Donald Trump 12,304 Retweets #1 #2 Carly Fiorina 3,006 Retweets #1 #3 Ben Carson 1,302 Retweets #1 #4 Ted Cruz 816 Retweets #1 #5 Marco Rubio 796 Retweets #1 #6 Rand Paul 691 Retweets
  18. 18. GOP CANDIDATES’ RESPONSES TO FOX DEBATE CONT’D #1 #7 John Kasich 682 Retweets #1 #8 Scott Walker 596 Retweets #1 #9 Mike Huckabee 343 Retweets #1 #10 Jeb Bush 85 Retweets #1 #11 Chris Christie 35 Retweets
  19. 19. DEMOCRATS’ RESPONSE TO FOX DEBATE #1 Bernie Sanders 32,963Retweets #1 #2 Hillary Clinton 5,219 Retweets #1 #3 Joe Biden 432 Retweets
  20. 20. TOP CNN NEWS DEBATE TWEETS 9/17/15 TO 9/19/15
  21. 21. TOP 3 RETWEETED RESPONSES TO CNN DEBATE #2 Donald Trump 8,403 Retweets #1 Jeb Bush 29,929 Retweets #3 Donald Trump 6,391 Retweets
  22. 22. Republicans Response to CNN Debate #1 #1 Jeb Bush 29,929Retweets #1 #2 Donald Trump 8,403 Retweets #1 #3 Ben Carson 2,357 Retweets #1 #4 Ted Cruz 1,428 Retweets #1 #5 Carly Fiorina 796 Retweets #1 #6 Marco Rubio 682 Retweets
  23. 23. Republicans Response to CNN Debate cont’d #1 #7 Scott Walker 135 Retweets #1 #8 Chris Christie 118 Retweets #1 #110 Mike Huckabee 110 Retweets #1 #10 Rand Paul 103 Retweets #1 #11 John Kasich 93 Retweets
  24. 24. DEMOCRATS RESPONSE TO CNN DEBATE #1 Bernie Sanders 11,673Retweets #1 #2 Hillary Clinton 6,335 Retweets #1 #3 Joe Biden 291 Retweets
  25. 25. Final Thoughts Five candidates benefited from the summer conversation: 1. Trump dominated the conversation, but saw a slight decline in share of voice after the CNN debate. 2. Sanders passed Clinton in share of voice after Labor Day and out-performed her in social media. 3. Carson saw a steady increase in mentions but didn’t see the same growth in his share of voice after the second Republican debate. 4. Fiorina made her move after the Fox undercard debate, which positioned her for a big leap post- CNN debate. 5. Non-candidate Joe Biden had a much larger share of voice among the mainstream media as opposed to the social media.

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