1. Release Date
September 29, 2015
The GOP Debates Begin
Late Summer 2015
Michael Cornfield
Associate Professor
Lara Brown
Associate Professor
Jamie P. Chandler
Data Scientist

2. Peoria Project
GW’s Graduate School of Political
Management tracks what’s being said
about the 2016 presidential candidates
and their campaigns with Zignal Lab’s
real-time, cross media story-tracking
platform.
• How do campaign words and messages
“play in Peoria?”

3. SHARE OF VOICE
MEASURING ECHOES AS THE DEBATES BEGIN

4. Indicates 3 days before/after each debate; Indicate trend lines
GOP AVERAGES 3X MORE MENTIONS THAN DEMOCRATS

5. Indicates 3 days before/after each debate
TRUMP WINS GOP MENTIONS RACE
Average Mentions per Day
Trump 282,042
Cruz 38,786
Bush 36,123
Fiorina 24,065
Carson 22,701
Walker* 20,306
Rubio 15,467
Kasich 13,277
Huckabee 12,145
Christie 11,490
Paul 11,188

6. SANDERS OVERTAKES CLINTON IN MENTIONS RACE
Average Mentions per Day
Clinton 83,536
Biden 9,987
Sanders 75,920
OMalley 1,978
Webb 668
Chafee 497
Indicates 3 days before/after each debate

7. MAINSTREAM MEDIA EMPHASIZES ESTABLISHMENT CANDIDATES

8. DEBATES CHANGE GOP SHARES OF VOICE

9. SANDERS LEADS CLINTON POST LABOR DAY

10. MAINSTREAM MEDIA DOMINATED BY CLINTON; SANDERS EVEN WITH HER IN SOCIAL

11. SENTIMENT
A POSITIVE UPTURN IN SEPTEMBER?

12. Indicates 3 days before/after each debate; Indicate trend lines
IS THERE A TREND TO THE POSITIVE?

13. GOP SENTIMENT: CARSON AND FIORINA DO BETTER THAN TRUMP

14. SANDERS THE ONLY DEMOCRAT WITH NET POSITIVE SENTIMENT

15. TOP FOX NEWS DEBATE TWEETS
8/7/15 TO 8/9/15

16. TOP 3 RETWEETED RESPONSES TO FOX DEBATE
#2
Donald Trump
6,027 Retweets
#1
Donald Trump
12,304 Retweets
#3
Donald Trump
4,120 Retweets

17. GOP CANDIDATES’ RESPONSES TO FOX DEBATE
#1
#1
Donald Trump
12,304 Retweets
#1
#2
Carly Fiorina
3,006 Retweets
#1
#3
Ben Carson
1,302 Retweets
#1
#4
Ted Cruz
816 Retweets
#1
#5
Marco Rubio
796 Retweets
#1
#6
Rand Paul
691 Retweets

18. GOP CANDIDATES’ RESPONSES TO FOX DEBATE CONT’D
#1
#7
John Kasich
682 Retweets
#1
#8
Scott Walker
596 Retweets
#1
#9
Mike Huckabee
343 Retweets
#1
#10
Jeb Bush
85 Retweets
#1
#11
Chris Christie
35 Retweets

19. DEMOCRATS’ RESPONSE TO FOX DEBATE
#1
Bernie Sanders
32,963Retweets
#1
#2
Hillary Clinton
5,219 Retweets
#1
#3
Joe Biden
432 Retweets

20. TOP CNN NEWS DEBATE TWEETS
9/17/15 TO 9/19/15

21. TOP 3 RETWEETED RESPONSES TO CNN DEBATE
#2
Donald Trump
8,403 Retweets
#1
Jeb Bush
29,929 Retweets
#3
Donald Trump
6,391 Retweets

22. Republicans Response to CNN Debate
#1
#1
Jeb Bush
29,929Retweets
#1
#2
Donald Trump
8,403 Retweets
#1
#3
Ben Carson
2,357 Retweets
#1
#4
Ted Cruz
1,428 Retweets
#1
#5
Carly Fiorina
796 Retweets
#1
#6
Marco Rubio
682 Retweets

23. Republicans Response to CNN Debate cont’d
#1
#7
Scott Walker
135 Retweets
#1
#8
Chris Christie
118 Retweets
#1
#110
Mike Huckabee
110 Retweets
#1
#10
Rand Paul
103 Retweets
#1
#11
John Kasich
93 Retweets

24. DEMOCRATS RESPONSE TO CNN DEBATE
#1
Bernie Sanders
11,673Retweets
#1
#2
Hillary Clinton
6,335 Retweets
#1
#3
Joe Biden
291 Retweets

25. Final Thoughts
Five candidates benefited from the summer
conversation:
1. Trump dominated the conversation, but saw a slight
decline in share of voice after the CNN debate.
2. Sanders passed Clinton in share of voice after
Labor Day and out-performed her in social media.
3. Carson saw a steady increase in mentions but
didn’t see the same growth in his share of voice
after the second Republican debate.
4. Fiorina made her move after the Fox undercard
debate, which positioned her for a big leap post-
CNN debate.
5. Non-candidate Joe Biden had a much larger share
of voice among the mainstream media as opposed
to the social media.