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DAFNE Negotiation Simulation Lab Approach & Tools

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Presentation of the DAFNE Negotiation Simulation Lab Tools at the Nexus Workshop in Athens organized by DAFNE, SIM4NEXUS and UNU-FLORES, March 16, 2018

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DAFNE Negotiation Simulation Lab Approach & Tools

  1. 1. www.dafne-project.eu @dafne_project DECISION ANALYTIC FRAMEWORK TO EXPLORE THE WATER-ENERGY-FOOD NEXUS IN COMPLEX TRANSBOUNDARY WATER RESOURCES OF FAST DEVELOPING COUNTRIES. Funded under the H2020 Framework Programme of the EU, GA No. 690268 DAFNE Negotiation Simulation Lab for the WEF Nexus 
 
 Prof. Dr. Jasminko Novak
 
 European Institute for 
 Participatory Media, Berlin Athens 16.03.2018
  2. 2. Water is needed for food production and energy production. Energy is needed for food production and water supply and sanitation. 2 The WEF Nexus and Stakeholders Many interconnected issues – many different perspectives
  3. 3. Investigating the WEF Nexus in the DAFNE Negotiation Simulation Lab (NSL) •  “Safe place” for stakeholders to express, discuss and better understand different perspectives •  To identify potential solution pathways to sustainable resource management in the basins à shared benefits •  To analyse: what works, what doesn’t & why, what could be done differently. Actor analysis identifies stakeholders •  Wide range, different sectors •  Different interests, roles, levels •  Includes: environment (ecosystem services), tourism, cultural heritage… 3
  4. 4. Negotiation Simulation Lab: Integrating stakeholders into WEF nexus analysis What are the issues preven&ng sustainable management in the basin? What indicators for evalua2ng possible solu&ons? What are possible ac2ons & solu2ons ? What are the effects & trade- offs of different solu&ons ? What solu&ons best balance the effects on different sectors? … … … STAKEHOLDERS
  5. 5. Negotiation Simulation Lab: Process Problem defini7on (issues) Possible ac7ons & scenarios Modelling & simula7on Mul7- perspec7ve visualiza7on Geo-info portal Indicators measuring effects Analysis & discussion by stakeholders Compu&ng effects of different solu&ons 5 DAFNE Tools NSL workshop … … … NSL workshop Input from stakeholders
  6. 6. GEO-INFO MODELLING & ANALYSIS •  Modelling / verifying indicators and ac&ons •  Geographical context •  Detailed display and analysis of simula&on results Negotiation Simulation Lab: Tools 6 VISUAL COMPARISON & GROUP DISCUSSION •  Understand impact of different solu&ons on selected indicators •  Express and analyse perspec&ves of different sectors •  Iden&fy trade-offs & nego&a&on opportuni&es
  7. 7. Example: Actions, solution pathways Examples of pathways: actions planned for next 20 years 7 Energy: development in Zambia Energy: development in Mozambique None Low Medium High None Low Medium High Food: development agricultural produc7on in Zimbabwe None Low Medium High Water: Environmental regula7on for Kafue flats Water: Environmental regula7on for Zambezi delta Yes No Yes No Pathway 2: Take measures in different sectors
  8. 8. Example: Indicators Examples of indicators important for different sectors 8 Energy: Zambia Energy: Mozambique Yearly average Energy production from Hydro-power in Zambia (GWh) Yearly average Energy production from Hydro-power in Mozambique (GWh) Food: Wheat Zimbabwe Yearly average potential Winter Wheat Crop in Zimbabwe (tons) Water: Flood Zambezi Delta Water: Environment Kafue Flats Yearly Max. average of February discharge in the Zambezi Delta (m3/ sec) No. of years with the February average flow in the Kafue Flats wetland more than 900 m3/sec Public energy sector E.g. Ministry of Mines, Energy and Water development Zambia Public energy sector E.g. Ministry of Energy Mozambique E.g. Ministry of Agriculture, Zimbabwe Wheat farmers E.g. Ministry of Coordina&on of Environmental Affairs Mozambique E.g. NGOs, Zambian Ministry of Tourism, Environment and Natural Resources
  9. 9. • Understand impact of different solu&on pathways on selected indicators • Express & analyse own perspec&ve and perspec&ves of others • Compare solu&ons • Iden&fy trade-offs & nego&a&on opportuni&es Multi-Perspective Visual Analysis Tool 9 View iden&fied solu&on pathways Evaluate pathways based on a set of indicators
  10. 10. Multi-perspective visual analysis tool 10 …in higher hydropower produc&on …and nega&vely affect the environmental indicators E.g. Pathway 1 would result …
  11. 11. Multi-perspective visual analysis tool 11 Define benchmarks for your sector’s indicators View the perspec&ve of your sector
  12. 12. Multi-perspective visual analysis tool 12 …in higher hydropower produc&on in Mozambique… …but the discharge in the Zambezi Delta would fall below the defined thresholds Pathway 5 would result …
  13. 13. Multi-perspective visual analysis tool 13 compare a pathway to the suggested compromise to understand trade-offs View best compromise for all sector benchmarks
  14. 14. Multi-perspective visual analysis tool 14 Inspect a pathway in more detail Read comments…
  15. 15. DAFNE Geo-portal: detailed analysis Modelling & analysing indicators, actions & pathways •  Detailed analysis of dynamics of the systems in geographical context •  Details of indicators & solu&on pathways and their impact •  Understand and verify the basis of the group visualiza&on 15 •  enhanced form of a Web-GIS
  16. 16. NSL Workshops Online Interaction •  Involve stakeholders who couldn’t participate in the face-to-face meetings •  Explore DAFNE tools in detail on your own •  Use tools to discuss internally in your organization •  Face-to-face group analysis of the visualization of different solutions and indicators •  Discussion of the impact of different solutions Visualising, analysing & discussing impact of different pathways from mul7ple perspec7ves of different WEF sectors … … …
  17. 17. NSL Workshops Online Interaction Visualising, analysing & discussing impact of different pathways from mul7ple perspec7ves of different WEF sectors … … … è increase and inform understanding of different sector’s perspec&ves è iden&fy and understand trade-offs è develop beaer arguments for own posi&on
  18. 18. www.dafne-project.eu @dafne_project

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