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A decision-analytic framework & multi-perspective visualization for participatory WEF nexus analysis for policy making

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Presentation at the Dresden Nexus Conference

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A decision-analytic framework & multi-perspective visualization for participatory WEF nexus analysis for policy making

  1. 1. www.dafne-project.eu @dafne_project DECISION ANALYTIC FRAMEWORK TO EXPLORE THE WATER-ENERGY-FOOD NEXUS IN COMPLEX TRANSBOUNDARY WATER RESOURCES OF FAST DEVELOPING COUNTRIES. Funded under the H2020 Framework Programme of the EU, GA No. 690268 A decision-analytic framework & multi-perspective visualization for participatory WEF nexus analysis for policy making Prof. Dr Jasminko Novak European Institute for Participatory Media Univ. of Applied Sciences Stralsund
  2. 2. 2 The DAFNE project • The DAFNE (H2020) project develops models and tools for: à analysing the impacts and trade-offs of different policies in the WEF nexus under uncertain conditions (future scenarios) à identifying sustainable options for integrated management of water, energy and food • Focus on transboundary context in fast growing countries 2 What is DAFNE? The DAFNE (H2020) project explores sustainable and integrated options for the management of water, energy and food. Focus on transboundary context in fast growing countries.
  3. 3. 3 We need more energy and food … 3500 new dams being planned or built around the world Arable land will expand by 70 million ha worldwide by 2030
  4. 4. 4 …but this often generates externalities Deforestation (Rondonia - Brazil) 1975 2009 Drying up risk (Lake Urmia – Iran) Resettlement (Lower Se San 2– Cambodia) Invasive Mimosa Pigra (Kafue flats - Zambia)
  5. 5. 5 Transboundary WEF issues in fast developing countries Delta Congo D.R. Angola Namibia Botswana Zimbabwe Mozambique Malawi Tanzania Zambia KA CB ITT KG U VF irr3 irr1 irr2 irr4 irr5 irr6 irr7 Existing Under Construct Planned Omo-Turkana River Basin, Ethiopia Zambezi River Basin, Zambia +155% of current installed hydropower capacity (13,809 MW) +114.3% of current irrigated area (514,641 ha) +78.5% of current water abstraction (5,836 mln m3/yr) Future basin development 2 planned dams Gibe III and Koysha large scale and commercial agriculture expansion Gibe I Gibe II Gibe III Koysha Wetland Lake Turkana Omo • 80-90 % of annual inflow into Lake Turkana from Omo • 65% of the Ethiopian installed HP capacity (in 2016)
  6. 6. 6 Transboundary WEF issues in fast developing countries Omo-Turkana River Basin, Ethiopia WEF nexus issues and problems • Large investments in hydropower plants that can cause problems downstream • Reduced water quality of Omo river and Lake Turkana due to irrigation in the basin • Environmental and cultural conservation • Deforestation and land degradation Gibe Dam in Ethiopia, picture from https://www.wantedinafrica.com/news/ethiopi a-inaugurates-gibe-iii-dam.html Omo River Valley, picture from https://olsonfarlow.com/portfolios/ethiopias-omo- valley-march-2010-national-geographic-magazine Zambezi River Basin, Zambia
  7. 7. Various stakeholders with conflicting interests Example: Stakeholder goals in the Omo-Turkana basin 7 Double energy production and become exporter of energy Avoidance of flooding Sustainable fishing Food security Food productivity Expand irrigation ENVIRON- MENT TOURISM Stabilization of the river for navigation Livelihood and cultural heritage of communities How to understand the trade-offs of different actions and policies in relation to the perspectives of different sectors?
  8. 8. 8 3rd NSL Selected pathways 2nd NSL Selection of interesting pathways Preview of the WEF model Review results of WEF/DAF models WEF WEF modelWEF model Evaluation of extended indicators set and full model resultsDAF strategic model 1st NSL Efficient pathways Development pathways Design indicators DAF Indicators Actions Screening Multi-perspective Geoportal + TOOLS Online interaction PROCESS Scenarios DAFNE project: Main results Decision-Analytic Framework & Visual tools to analyse the WEF nexus Participatory approach from the outset NSL = Negotiation Simulation Lab
  9. 9. 9 Decision-analytic framework Participatory modelling with stakeholders from the outset 3rd NSL Selected pathways 2nd NSL Selection of interesting pathways Preview of the WEF model Review results of WEF/DAF models WEF WEFmodel WEF model Evaluation of extended indicators set and full model results DAF strategic model 1st NSL Efficient pathway s Development pathways Design indicators DAF Indicators Actions Screening Multi- perspective Geoportal + TOOLS Online interaction PROCE SS Scenarios water energy food society Actions & indicators Negotiation simulation lab
  10. 10. 10 Decision-Analytic framework Future scenarios Future Scenarios 3rd NSL Selected pathways 2nd NSL Selection of interesting pathways Preview of the WEF model Review results of WEF/DAF models WEF WEFmodel WEF model Evaluation of extended indicators set and full model results DAF strategic model 1st NSL Efficient pathway s Development pathways Design indicators DAF Indicators Actions Screening Multi- perspective Geoportal + TOOLS Online interaction PROCE SS Scenarios CLIMATE WATER/ENRGY DEMAND
  11. 11. 11 Decision-Analytic framework Negotiation simulation lab – stakeholder feedback 3rd NSL Selected pathways 2nd NSL Selection of interesting pathways Preview of the WEF model Review results of WEF/DAF models WEF WEFmodelWEF model Evaluation of extended indicators set and full model results DAF strategic model 1st NSL Efficient pathway s Development pathways Design indicators DAF Indicators Actions Screening Multi- perspective Geoportal + TOOLS Online interaction PROCE SS Scenarios Screening Multi-perspective 11 Decision-Analytic framework Negotiation simulation lab – stakeholder feedback 3rd NSL Selected pathways 2nd NSL Selection of interesting pathways Preview of the WEF model Review results of WEF/DAF models WEF WEFmodelWEF model Evaluation of extended indicators set and full model results DAF strategic model 1st NSL Efficient pathway s Development pathways Design indicators DAF Indicators Actions Screening Multi- perspective Geoportal + TOOLS Online interaction PROCE SS Scenarios Screening Multi-perspective
  12. 12. 12 3rd NSL Selected pathways 2nd NSL Selection of interesting pathways Preview of the WEF model Review results of WEF/DAF models WEF WEF modelWEF model Evaluation of extended indicators set and full model resultsDAF strategic model 1st NSL Efficient pathways Development pathways Design indicators DAF Indicators Actions Screening Multi-perspective Geoportal + TOOLS Online interaction PROCESS Scenarios Multi-perspective visualization tools for the WEF nexus Visualization tools for stakeholders to analyse results and give feedback Screening Visual tools to uncover relationships between different issues, solutions, indicators & sectors from different perspectives Multi-perspective
  13. 13. 1: Selecting a subset of relevant alternatives Managing complexity with high-level screening of alternatives 13 • aggregated overview of the effects of many different solutions on main design indicators representing each sector (aggregated) • collectively selecting a subset of alternatives from a large set based on sectoral preferences
  14. 14. 1: Selecting a subset of relevant alternatives 14 • …collectively selecting a subset of alternatives from a large list based on few design indicators representing each sector • … revealing the trade-offs already at this stage Managing complexity with high-level screening of alternatives
  15. 15. 2: Perspective making Analysing solutions and defining own preferences 15 Example: trade-off between the irrigation agriculture and the impact on fisheries - Energy Gibe 1 - Energy Gibe 2 - Energy Gibe 3 - Energy production Gibe 2 - Water deficit for irrigation Kuraz - Fish yield production Turkana - Flow positive distance in Omo - Flow negative distance in Omo …. Indicators • …understanding the impact on indicators specific to a stakeholder sector • …exploring the impact of alternatives on various indicators and selecting preferred ones Energy Food Environment
  16. 16. 3: Perspective taking Enabling negotiation between sectors 16 • Getting an understanding of other sectors’ perspectives and trade-offs • Developing a shared understanding and deciding on common preferences Here one can explore which alternatives satisfy both sector perspectives
  17. 17. 17 WEF model Detailed simulation of pathway impacts over time & space • disaggregating the the lumped impact from the strategic (optimisation) model to finer temporal and spatial scales e.g.: water availability (hourly/daily hydrograph) at different points in the basin over time • larger set of indicators from different sectors and including diff. sub-models (e.g. economic services)
  18. 18. 18 WEF model: example results Detailed simulation of pathway impacts over time & space Koysha water level (coord. operation in the OTB) - affects availability of water for downstream irrigation Irrigation allocation effects on SWC (soil water saturation metric) Mean sediment fluxes at the reservoirs Distributed erosion-deposition map
  19. 19. 19 Geo-information portal: detailed geo-visual analysis Detailed geographical analysis of pathway impacts
  20. 20. 20 Some findings: Omo-Turkana basin Alternative development pathways and possible compromises Baseline Koysha Irrigation Irrigation+koysha 1 2 3 4 5 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Compromise: - 38% irrigation + 80% MT of fish Preference • The construction of Koysha is not detrimental for the socio-environmental conditions in the Omo-Turkana basin if operated taking such interests into account, and it almost doubles HP production (+ 2000 GWh/year). • Planned irrigation projects seem oversized and may produce severe impacts in lake Turkana - but it is still possible to find compromise solutions through demand side action.
  21. 21. 21 Some findings: Omo-Turkana basin Policies for operating water infrastructures for different alternatives 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 345 350 355 360 365 Level[masl] GIBE I GIBE III TURKANA Turkwel Kerio Omo GIBE II Gojeb Gilgel Gibe KOYSHA Agricultural district Agricultural district Turkana Level Gibe III Level Koysha Level Delta Agricultural diversion No irrigation Extreme irrigation Max-min operational level Water demand Natural delta regime Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0 50 100 150 200 Irrigation[m3 /s] Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 620 640 660 680 Level[masl] Max-min operational level Jan FebMar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0 500 1000 1500 2000 Streamflow[m3 /s] Jan FebMar AprMay Jun Jul AugSep Oct NovDec 800 850 900 Level[masl]
  22. 22. 22 Some findings: Zambezi basin Alternative development pathways and possible compromises • Projected population growth in the ZRB signals the need for all dam investments to meet future hydropower demands. • Operational preferences of the multi-reservoir system have a larger influence than the timings over the tradeoffs between hydropower production and environmental flows.
  23. 23. 23 Some findings: Econometric modelling Estimation of Sector Specific Production Functions 25 Case Study: Omo Turkana Basin Estimation of Sector Specific Production Functions Focus on the m=5 Core Water-Dependent Economic Sectors: • Agriculture (including aquaculture) • Mining (Industry: cooper, coal, cobalt) • Energy Production • Tourism • Residential Water Supply Natural Capital - Ecosystem Services: • Provisioning Services: Water, Food • Regulating Services: Flood prevention, Erosion control • Supporting (Habitat ) Services: Biodiversity • Cultural (Recreational) Services: Tourism
  24. 24. 24 Some findings: Simulation of actor behaviour Non-cooperative vs. cooperative water use: downstream • We find that the cooperative solution is the optimal pathway for both riparian countries and the sustainable use of the basin. • We argue that the detail and sophistication of both the mathematical and econometric models are needed for robust policy recommendations towards sustainable management of transboundary resources. Simulation Results: Non cooperative Downstream 37 • The water use becomes zero after a period of time due to the lake exhaustion both under myopic and non-myopic case Figure 2 Simulation Results: Cooperative Downstream 40 Figure 4 Non-myopic: U considers river stock, D considers lake stock Cooperative: U gives hydro and takes food from D
  25. 25. 25 Some findings: Multi-perspective visualization helpful for analyzing trade-offs in the nexus Facilitating analysis for the policy making and negotiation process 2nd NSL workshop in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, July 2019 “Comparison mode is also very helpful, good visualization, can compare easily, to make trade-offs, and to have evidence for negotiation” – Stakeholder Omo 2nd NSL workshop in Lusaka, Zambia, July 2019
  26. 26. Some findings: User experience and ease of use E.g. 16 stakeholders in Omo-Turkana 26 à Similar evaluation results in the Zambezi basin
  27. 27. Some findings: Visualizing the WEF nexus Multi-perspective visualization for analysing WEF relationships • Supporting sustainable policy making can be facilitated by presenting trade-offs in the WEF sector and supporting comparative analysis of alternatives for a wide range of stakeholders • Capturing and presenting different perspectives of the involved sectors and stakeholders can facilitate the understanding of different needs and possible options for compromises • Results of scientific models need to be made understandable for non-technical users • Reduce information/knowledge asymmetries • Participatory process in the design of the models and visual tools essential • Providing high user experience and ease of use important for stakeholder acceptance 27 Participatory design process with stakeholders Analysis of user needs Design & implement Evaluate
  28. 28. Some challenges for further research „Common“ ground, understandability and trustworthiness Multi-perspective approach and tools adaptable to broader range of multi-stakeholder and/or multi-criteria scenarios • Providing stakeholders with guidance for the analysis • Enabling an easy analysis of trade-offs of alternative solutions • Supporting the definition of preferences and different perspectives • Facilitating the understanding of perspectives of others • Reducing information & knowledge asymmetries Some (ongoing) challenges: • How to make results trustworthy and more understandable, especially to non-technical stakeholders? • How to connect operational WEF indicators to higher level issues (e.g. SDGs)? • Data availability and sharing for modelling and simulation 28
  29. 29. www.dafne-project.eu @dafne_project

Presentation at the Dresden Nexus Conference

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