Presentation at the Dresden Nexus Conference

1. www.dafne-project.eu
@dafne_project
DECISION ANALYTIC FRAMEWORK TO EXPLORE THE
WATER-ENERGY-FOOD NEXUS IN COMPLEX TRANSBOUNDARY
WATER RESOURCES OF FAST DEVELOPING COUNTRIES.
Funded under the H2020 Framework
Programme of the EU, GA No. 690268
A decision-analytic framework &
multi-perspective visualization
for participatory WEF nexus analysis
for policy making
Prof. Dr Jasminko Novak
European Institute for Participatory Media
Univ. of Applied Sciences Stralsund

2. 2
The DAFNE project
• The DAFNE (H2020) project
develops models and tools for:
à analysing the impacts and
trade-offs of different policies
in the WEF nexus under
uncertain conditions (future
scenarios)
à identifying sustainable
options for integrated
management of water, energy
and food
• Focus on transboundary
context in fast growing
countries
2
What is DAFNE?
The DAFNE (H2020)
project explores
sustainable and
integrated options for
the management of
water, energy and
food.
Focus on
transboundary context
in fast growing
countries.

3. 3
We need more energy and food …
3500 new dams being planned or
built around the world
Arable land will expand by 70
million ha worldwide by 2030

4. 4
…but this often generates externalities
Deforestation
(Rondonia - Brazil)
1975 2009
Drying up risk
(Lake Urmia – Iran)
Resettlement
(Lower Se San 2– Cambodia)
Invasive Mimosa Pigra
(Kafue flats - Zambia)

5. 5
Transboundary WEF issues in fast developing
countries
Delta
Congo D.R.
Angola
Namibia
Botswana
Zimbabwe
Mozambique
Malawi
Tanzania
Zambia
KA
CB
ITT
KG
U
VF
irr3
irr1
irr2
irr4
irr5
irr6
irr7
Existing
Under Construct
Planned
Omo-Turkana River Basin, Ethiopia Zambezi River Basin, Zambia
+155% of current installed hydropower capacity
(13,809 MW)
+114.3% of current irrigated area (514,641 ha)
+78.5% of current water abstraction (5,836 mln m3/yr)
Future basin development
2 planned dams Gibe III and Koysha
large scale and commercial agriculture expansion
Gibe I
Gibe
II
Gibe
III
Koysha
Wetland
Lake Turkana
Omo
• 80-90 % of annual inflow into Lake Turkana from Omo
• 65% of the Ethiopian installed HP capacity (in 2016)

6. 6
Transboundary WEF issues in fast developing
countries
Omo-Turkana River Basin, Ethiopia
WEF nexus issues and problems
• Large investments in hydropower plants that
can cause problems downstream
• Reduced water quality of Omo river and Lake
Turkana due to irrigation in the basin
• Environmental and cultural conservation
• Deforestation and land degradation
Gibe Dam in Ethiopia, picture from
https://www.wantedinafrica.com/news/ethiopi
a-inaugurates-gibe-iii-dam.html
Omo River Valley, picture from
https://olsonfarlow.com/portfolios/ethiopias-omo-
valley-march-2010-national-geographic-magazine
Zambezi River Basin, Zambia

7. Various stakeholders with conflicting interests
Example: Stakeholder goals in the Omo-Turkana basin
7
Double energy
production and become
exporter of energy
Avoidance of flooding
Sustainable fishing
Food security
Food productivity
Expand irrigation
ENVIRON-
MENT
TOURISM
Stabilization of the
river for navigation
Livelihood and
cultural heritage of
communities
How to understand the trade-offs of different actions and policies
in relation to the perspectives of different sectors?

8. 8
3rd NSL
Selected
pathways
2nd NSL
Selection of
interesting
pathways
Preview of
the WEF
model
Review results
of WEF/DAF
models
WEF
WEF
modelWEF model Evaluation of
extended indicators
set and full model
resultsDAF
strategic
model
1st NSL
Efficient
pathways
Development
pathways
Design
indicators
DAF
Indicators
Actions
Screening Multi-perspective Geoportal
+
TOOLS
Online interaction
PROCESS
Scenarios
DAFNE project: Main results
Decision-Analytic Framework & Visual tools to analyse the WEF nexus
Participatory approach from the outset
NSL = Negotiation Simulation Lab

9. 9
Decision-analytic framework
Participatory modelling with stakeholders from the outset
3rd NSL
Selected
pathways
2nd NSL
Selection of
interesting
pathways
Preview of
the WEF
model
Review results
of WEF/DAF
models
WEF
WEFmodel
WEF model
Evaluation of
extended
indicators set
and full model
results
DAF strategic
model
1st NSL
Efficient
pathway
s
Development
pathways
Design
indicators
DAF
Indicators
Actions
Screening Multi-
perspective
Geoportal
+
TOOLS
Online interaction
PROCE
SS
Scenarios
water
energy
food
society
Actions & indicators
Negotiation simulation lab

10. 10
Decision-Analytic framework
Future scenarios
Future Scenarios
3rd NSL
Selected
pathways
2nd NSL
Selection of
interesting
pathways
Preview of
the WEF
model
Review results
of WEF/DAF
models
WEF
WEFmodel
WEF model
Evaluation of
extended
indicators set
and full model
results
DAF strategic
model
1st NSL
Efficient
pathway
s
Development
pathways
Design
indicators
DAF
Indicators
Actions
Screening Multi-
perspective
Geoportal
+
TOOLS
Online interaction
PROCE
SS
Scenarios
CLIMATE
WATER/ENRGY DEMAND

11. 11
Decision-Analytic framework
Negotiation simulation lab – stakeholder feedback
3rd NSL
Selected
pathways
2nd NSL
Selection of
interesting
pathways
Preview of
the WEF
model
Review results
of WEF/DAF
models
WEF
WEFmodelWEF model
Evaluation of
extended
indicators set
and full model
results
DAF strategic
model
1st NSL
Efficient
pathway
s
Development
pathways
Design
indicators
DAF
Indicators
Actions
Screening Multi-
perspective
Geoportal
+
TOOLS
Online interaction
PROCE
SS
Scenarios
Screening Multi-perspective
11
Decision-Analytic framework
Negotiation simulation lab – stakeholder feedback
3rd NSL
Selected
pathways
2nd NSL
Selection of
interesting
pathways
Preview of
the WEF
model
Review results
of WEF/DAF
models
WEF
WEFmodelWEF model
Evaluation of
extended
indicators set
and full model
results
DAF strategic
model
1st NSL
Efficient
pathway
s
Development
pathways
Design
indicators
DAF
Indicators
Actions
Screening Multi-
perspective
Geoportal
+
TOOLS
Online interaction
PROCE
SS
Scenarios
Screening Multi-perspective

12. 12
3rd NSL
Selected
pathways
2nd NSL
Selection of
interesting
pathways
Preview of
the WEF
model
Review results
of WEF/DAF
models
WEF
WEF
modelWEF model Evaluation of
extended indicators
set and full model
resultsDAF
strategic
model
1st NSL
Efficient
pathways
Development
pathways
Design
indicators
DAF
Indicators
Actions
Screening Multi-perspective Geoportal
+
TOOLS
Online interaction
PROCESS
Scenarios
Multi-perspective visualization tools for the WEF nexus
Visualization tools for stakeholders to analyse results and give feedback
Screening
Visual tools to uncover relationships between different issues, solutions,
indicators & sectors from different perspectives
Multi-perspective

13. 1: Selecting a subset of relevant alternatives
Managing complexity with high-level screening of alternatives
13
• aggregated overview of the effects of
many different solutions on main design
indicators representing each sector
(aggregated)
• collectively selecting a subset of
alternatives from a large set based on
sectoral preferences

14. 1: Selecting a subset of relevant alternatives
14
• …collectively selecting a subset of
alternatives from a large list based
on few design indicators
representing each sector
• … revealing the trade-offs already at
this stage
Managing complexity with high-level screening of alternatives

15. 2: Perspective making
Analysing solutions and defining own preferences
15
Example: trade-off
between the irrigation
agriculture and the impact
on fisheries
- Energy Gibe 1
- Energy Gibe 2
- Energy Gibe 3
- Energy production Gibe 2
- Water deficit for irrigation Kuraz
- Fish yield production Turkana
- Flow positive distance in Omo
- Flow negative distance in Omo
….
Indicators
• …understanding the impact on
indicators specific to a stakeholder
sector
• …exploring the impact of
alternatives on various indicators
and selecting preferred ones
Energy Food Environment

16. 3: Perspective taking
Enabling negotiation between sectors
16
• Getting an understanding of other
sectors’ perspectives and trade-offs
• Developing a shared understanding and
deciding on common preferences
Here one can explore
which alternatives
satisfy both sector
perspectives

17. 17
WEF model
Detailed simulation of pathway impacts over time & space
• disaggregating the the lumped impact from the strategic (optimisation) model to finer temporal and spatial
scales e.g.: water availability (hourly/daily hydrograph) at different points in the basin over time
• larger set of indicators from different sectors and including diff. sub-models (e.g. economic services)

18. 18
WEF model: example results
Detailed simulation of pathway impacts over time & space
Koysha water level (coord. operation in the OTB)
- affects availability of water for downstream irrigation
Irrigation allocation effects on SWC
(soil water saturation metric)
Mean sediment fluxes at the reservoirs Distributed erosion-deposition map

19. 19
Geo-information portal: detailed geo-visual analysis
Detailed geographical analysis of pathway impacts

20. 20
Some findings: Omo-Turkana basin
Alternative development pathways and possible compromises
Baseline
Koysha
Irrigation
Irrigation+koysha
1 2 3 4 5
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Compromise:
- 38% irrigation
+ 80% MT of fish
Preference
• The construction of Koysha is not detrimental for the socio-environmental conditions in the Omo-Turkana
basin if operated taking such interests into account, and it almost doubles HP production (+ 2000
GWh/year).
• Planned irrigation projects seem oversized and may produce severe impacts in lake Turkana - but it is still
possible to find compromise solutions through demand side action.

21. 21
Some findings: Omo-Turkana basin
Policies for operating water infrastructures for different alternatives
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
345
350
355
360
365
Level[masl]
GIBE I
GIBE III
TURKANA
Turkwel Kerio
Omo
GIBE II
Gojeb
Gilgel Gibe
KOYSHA
Agricultural
district
Agricultural
district
Turkana Level
Gibe III Level
Koysha Level
Delta
Agricultural diversion
No irrigation
Extreme irrigation
Max-min operational level
Water demand
Natural delta regime
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
50
100
150
200
Irrigation[m3
/s]
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
620
640
660
680
Level[masl]
Max-min operational level
Jan FebMar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Streamflow[m3
/s]
Jan FebMar AprMay Jun Jul AugSep Oct NovDec
800
850
900
Level[masl]

22. 22
Some findings: Zambezi basin
Alternative development pathways and possible compromises
• Projected population growth in the ZRB signals the need for all dam investments to meet future
hydropower demands.
• Operational preferences of the multi-reservoir system have a larger influence than the timings over the
tradeoffs between hydropower production and environmental flows.

23. 23
Some findings: Econometric modelling
Estimation of Sector Specific Production Functions
25
Case Study: Omo Turkana Basin
Estimation of Sector Specific Production Functions
Focus on the m=5 Core Water-Dependent Economic Sectors:
• Agriculture (including aquaculture)
• Mining (Industry: cooper, coal, cobalt)
• Energy Production
• Tourism
• Residential Water Supply
Natural Capital - Ecosystem Services:
• Provisioning Services: Water, Food
• Regulating Services: Flood prevention, Erosion control
• Supporting (Habitat ) Services: Biodiversity
• Cultural (Recreational) Services: Tourism

24. 24
Some findings: Simulation of actor behaviour
Non-cooperative vs. cooperative water use: downstream
• We find that the cooperative solution is the optimal pathway for both riparian countries and
the sustainable use of the basin.
• We argue that the detail and sophistication of both the mathematical and econometric models
are needed for robust policy recommendations towards sustainable management of
transboundary resources.
Simulation Results: Non cooperative Downstream
37
• The water use becomes zero after a period of time due to the lake exhaustion
both under myopic and non-myopic case
Figure 2
Simulation Results: Cooperative Downstream
40
Figure 4
Non-myopic: U considers river stock, D considers lake stock
Cooperative: U gives hydro and takes food from D

25. 25
Some findings: Multi-perspective visualization
helpful for analyzing trade-offs in the nexus
Facilitating analysis for the policy making and negotiation process
2nd NSL workshop in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, July 2019
“Comparison mode is also very helpful, good visualization, can compare easily,
to make trade-offs, and to have evidence for negotiation” – Stakeholder Omo
2nd NSL workshop in Lusaka, Zambia, July 2019

26. Some findings: User experience and ease of use
E.g. 16 stakeholders in Omo-Turkana
26
à Similar evaluation results in the Zambezi basin

27. Some findings: Visualizing the WEF nexus
Multi-perspective visualization for analysing WEF relationships
• Supporting sustainable policy making can be
facilitated by presenting trade-offs in the WEF
sector and supporting comparative analysis of
alternatives for a wide range of stakeholders
• Capturing and presenting different perspectives
of the involved sectors and stakeholders can
facilitate the understanding of different needs and
possible options for compromises
• Results of scientific models need to be made
understandable for non-technical users
• Reduce information/knowledge asymmetries
• Participatory process in the design of the
models and visual tools essential
• Providing high user experience and ease of use
important for stakeholder acceptance
27
Participatory design
process with
stakeholders
Analysis of
user needs
Design &
implement
Evaluate

28. Some challenges for further research
„Common“ ground, understandability and trustworthiness
Multi-perspective approach and tools adaptable to broader range of
multi-stakeholder and/or multi-criteria scenarios
• Providing stakeholders with guidance for the analysis
• Enabling an easy analysis of trade-offs of alternative solutions
• Supporting the definition of preferences and different perspectives
• Facilitating the understanding of perspectives of others
• Reducing information & knowledge asymmetries
Some (ongoing) challenges:
• How to make results trustworthy and more understandable, especially to
non-technical stakeholders?
• How to connect operational WEF indicators to higher level issues
(e.g. SDGs)?
• Data availability and sharing for modelling and simulation
28

29. www.dafne-project.eu
@dafne_project