Electric drive vehicles, including plug-in hybrids, battery electric vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles, were discussed across three workshops. The workshops addressed the business case for these vehicles, battery technologies, and a roadmap for developing fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen infrastructure. Key conclusions were that different technologies and business models are needed for various consumer groups, policy support is required to establish large markets and make the technologies economically sustainable, and while challenges remain the potential exists for electric drive vehicles to become more cost competitive and disrupt transportation systems over the long term with the right strategies.

1. Electric Drive in the Context of Future Transportation
(includes workshops on Business Case, Batteries and Fuel-Cell
Vehicles)
Challenge Bibendum: Workshops 1.1, 1.2, 1.3
18 May 2011

2. Workshop 1.1: what is a “business case”
for electric-drive vehicles?
Scope: electric drive (e.g. hybrids), plug-in vehicles, fuel cell vehicles
Principles:
company has to make a profit, therefore there must be enough consumers
willing to pay (and thus gain their own “profit”).
This will require a substantial market, to achieve high volume
manufacturing (especially electrical storage)
There are different market segments with different requirements, the
“business case” will vary significantly across consumer groups
Different technology solutions are appropriate for different market
segments; we need a portfolio approach
Business environment matters:
Oil prices, emissions/safety regulations, tax regimes, start-up/investment
costs and risks can strongly affect the case

3. One size does not fit all:
three types of consumers
Top down (early adopters)
high end, emotional purchases
Payback not critical; may be willing to pay a premium; need high quality, image
May be small or very small market share
Bottom up (mass market)
highly cost sensitive; early adopters likely to be high-mileage drivers
First cost probably needs to be comparable to competing technology; identify low
cost applications and niches
New business models: car sharing; pay by kilometre; battery swapping
Price incentives, non-cost incentives needed to grow market, until costs decline
significantly; need soft landing for incentive programs
Commercial, public fleets
Primarily economic decision (assuming duty requirements met)
High turnover vehicles require very short payback times; some submarkets
(buses?) may be able to use longer payback times
Non-cost incentives may be very powerful: weight limit increases, access to city
center, delivery zones

4. Conclusions regarding business case
Electric drive/plug-in/fuel cell vehicles are disruptive
We need to think differently, build a different economic paradigm
Need a long term vision with appropriate short term strategies
Policy packages must be “smart”, holistic, sustainable
Needs to include RD&D, key investments (e.g. infrastructure), purchase
incentives
Performance-based incentives
Self-financing incentive systems
Finally, Is there a business case?
Yes for some situations, applications. Over time there will be more and
better business cases
But we need more information: we need to better understand consumers
and market segments to know if we can achieve large scale, self-sustaining
markets

5. Workshop 1-2 Batteries for EVs
Technology
Different technologies and chemistries are appropriate for different electric
drive configurations
Business case
Up front cost of batteries gives rise to new approaches, i.e., battery leasing,
battery swapping, vehicle to grid (V to G is considered problematic at this stage of
technology)
Capturing residual value of batteries via secondary market use (stationary grid
applications for example)
Factors for success
Safety
Manufacturing scaledemand pull
Connectivity: locating charging on the fly via telematics, charging at night when
prices are low etc
Awareness of the benefits of electricity as a fuel
Continued technological innovatioin to increase performance and enable bi-
directional flow with the grid

6. Workshop 1.3: Roadmap for the development of fuel
cell for EV and hydrogen as an energy carrier
Key Messages
Achievements in Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Technologies
•Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEV) provide zero emission mobility at comparable range
(up to 800 km) and fast refueling times (within 3 minutes).
•Performance of FCEVs fulfill customer needs today (e.g. power, range, refueling time).
•Costs still have to be reduced; companies have cost reduction roadmaps for FCEVs in
place to reach the same Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) compared to ICE by 2020.
The Role of Hydrogen as an Energy Carrier
•Hydrogen is available today. CO2-free hydrogen production capacities (e.g. based on
renewable energies) for mass market deployment need to be scaled-up.
•Hydrogen is needed for the decarbonization of the energy system including
transportation.
Market Introduction of Hydrogen as a fuel and Fuel Cell Vehicles
•OEMs are committed to commercialize FCEV as part of a future powertrain portfolio.
•Industry is working together to harmonize ramp-up of cars and hydrogen infrastructure.
•Appropriate policy and funding mechanisms are needed to facilitate market
introduction.
•Hydrogen infrastructure is doable and in the mid- to long-term economically viable. A
commercial public-private framework for implementation needs to be developed which
shares investments and risks among the key stakeholders.