1. Can we win the tank-to-tire CO2 challenge?
Phil Gott, Managing Director
IHS Automotive Consulting
Internal Combustion Engine Roundtable
Challenge Bibendum
Rio de Janeiro, May 30, 2010

2. 2
Commercial Viabilities of Most Advanced IC
Engine Technologies Are Reasonably
Probable
Probability of Goals Being Achieved by 2030
NA SI
Diesel
Glossary SI IVT
100% NA = Naturally Aspirated BEV
SI = spark Igntion DISI
Technology & Fuel
80% IVT = Infinitely flexible intake DNSZ SI
Valve throttling
LTE
60% DI = Direct injection
DNSZ = Downsize (about 30%)
and boosted
40%
LTE = Low Temperature Engine
BEV = Battery electric Vehicle
20%
λ = Fuel-air ratio
0%
GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE SEMINAR
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
"Toxic" Emissions Compliance
Copyright © 2010 IHS. All Rights Reserved.

3. 3
Some Are Much More Cost Effective...
Expected Locus of Cost vs Energy & Tailpipe CO2 Benefit
40%
DISI (λ<1)
30%
Benefit
LTE
DNSZ SI (λ1)
20% DNSZ SI (λ<1)
Diesel
SI CNG
10%
DISI (λ1) SI IVT
0% NA SI
0%
GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE SEMINAR
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Cost Penalty
Cost Penalty and Benefit = % difference from NA SI engine
Copyright © 2010 IHS. All Rights Reserved.

4. 4
… But Some of the Most Attractive Are the Most Risky.
The Lowest Risk, Lowest Cost Technologies Will Be Fully
Exploited before More Expensive Types Are Adopted
Risk - Attractiveness
2030
2
Attractiveness Index
DNSZ SI (λ1)
DISI
1
CNG LTE
SI IVT
DNSZ SI (<λ1)
Diesel
CNG
0
NA SI GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE SEMINAR
0.00% 25.00% 50.00%
Risk
Attractiveness = Fuel Benefit/Cost Penalty
Risk = 1- Probability( Technology & Fuel x “Toxic” Emissions )
Copyright © 2010 IHS. All Rights Reserved.

5. 5
Hybrids Beg for Definition but Actually Fall
along a Continuum Rationale
• Micro—Stop/start operation
– ~ 7 percent fuel consumption benefit
– ~ 10 percent cost penalty
• Mild—~25 percent of total driveline power delivered electrically
– Integrated Starter Alternator
– ~ 20 percent fuel consumption benefit
– ~ 25 percent cost penalty
• Full—~ 50 percent of total driveline power delivered electrically
– Integrated Starter Alternator with motor assist
– ~ 30 percent fuel consumption benefit
– ~ 50 percent cost penalty
• Plug-in—Sufficient onboard electrical energy stored to yield pure-electric
driving for 100 percent of the majority of typical daily duty cycles. The
GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE SEMINAR
balance is driven as a full hybrid (series architecture likely).
– ~ 60 km per charge
– ~ 50 percent CO2 or fuel consumption benefit on test cycles assumed
– ~ 100 percent cost penalty
– Market limited to those people with easy access to grid power
Copyright © 2010 IHS. All Rights Reserved.

6. 2030 Outlook: Engines in Europe, US,
Japan and China still mostly gasoline
• Overall movement towards advanced CO2 Regulations, Avg. g/km Equivalent
gasoline engines (~60% of the 2015 2020 2025 2030
market) U.S/Canada 160 140 125 110
Europe 130 95 95 75
• Electrified (hybrid) drivelines account Japan 138 120 110 100
China 174 150 120 90
for 1/3 of the market, with 1/6 of the
market fully electric
Global Outlook: Planning Scenario
Sales 47,915,199 46,686,543 60,608,869 64,882,907 68,944,193 73,392,567
Overall Market 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
ENGINE
Conventional λ1 SI 76% 71% 45% 26% 16% 9%
λ1 SI w/ Full IVT 0% 1% 2% 10% 9% 9%
λ1 Boost DI 0% 1% 4% 7% 9% 6%
λ1 NA DI 0% 4% 9% 4% 3% 2%
DNSZ λ1 Boost DI 1% 4% 17% 28% 37% 42%
LTE 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 3%
Diesel 23% 19% 19% 17% 14% 12%
GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE SEMINAR
BEV 0% 0% 2% 5% 10% 17%
CNG 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 2%
HYBRID
Direct Drive 99% 91% 57% 32% 29% 27%
Micro-HEV 0% 7% 32% 49% 43% 36%
Mild- HEV 0% 0% 4% 7% 10% 10%
Full-HEV 1% 1% 4% 8% 10% 13%
PI-HEV 0% 0% 2% 4% 9% 14%
Copyright © 2010 IHS. All Rights Reserved.

7. Meanwhile, the vehicle parc doubles…
Regional Light Duty Vehicle Parc
1,800
1,600
Africa
1,400
Middle East
1,200
Euraisa
1,000
Million OECD Asia
Vehicles
800
Latin America
600
Non OECD Asia
400
Europe
200
North America
-
GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE SEMINAR
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
OECD = Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France,
Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, the
Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland,
Turkey, United Kingdom, United States.
Copyright © 2010 IHS. All Rights Reserved.

8. … And Tank-to-Tire CO2 begins to
decline after 2020 in the four regions
Global Tank-to-Wheel CO2
2.00
1.80
1.60
109 Tons/yr CO2
1.40 CNG
1.20 Electricity*
1.00 Forecast includes certain Ethanol
0.80 assumptions including:
Diesel
0.60 • Modest shifts to smaller cars
Gasoline
0.40 • ~20% reduction in energy
intensity per average vehicle
0.20
GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE SEMINAR • Mild reductions in Avg VMT
0.00
00
03
06
09
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
* Source to tank
Copyright © 2010 IHS. All Rights Reserved.

9. Thank you!
Phil Gott, Managing Director
Automotive Science and Technology
IHS Automotive Consulting
+1 781 301 9141
philip.gott@ihsglobalinsight.com
Extracted from Preliminary findings;
IHS Global Scenarios Project

10. 10
Engine Options
• Conventional λ1 Spark Ignition (SI): Naturally Aspirated Spark Ignition
– Variable and optimized cooling rates at different operating conditions,
– Variable valve timing (Miller/Atkinson cycles),
– Reduced mechanical friction losses
– Pre-mixed
• SI IVT: λ1 Spark Ignition with Infinitely Flexible Valve Timing and Boosting
– Intake valve throttling
• DISI: Direct Injection Turbocharged Gasoline Engine
– Combustion system development for stratified operation across entire part load range
– Lean with NOx treatment (20 percent risk) or Stoichiometric (5 percent risk)
• DNSZ SI: Downsized, highly boosted DISI
– 30 percent reduction in displacement
– Turbocharged
– Lean with NOx treatment (30 percent risk) or Stoichiometric (10 percent risk)
• HSDI: (High Speed) Direct Injection Diesel (lean)
– Turbocharged—perhaps multistage
– Lean NOx exhaust gas treatment
GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE SEMINAR
– Diesel particulate filter
• LTE: Low Temperature Engine (lean)
– Also known as HCCI, PCCI or CAI
– Power boosting – perhaps electrically assisted turbocharger
– Advanced controls including start of combustion sensing
– Low-temperature oxidation catalyst
Copyright © 2010 IHS. All Rights Reserved.

11. 11
Global Segment Sales
(Millions)
30 Multi-car ownership
starts in growth markets Fiscal-induced downsizing
Dominant growth segment in Asia
Affordability for grey population, parking hassle factor
25
20
Virtual mobility squeeze
Mega urban
15 agglomerations
Japan like
Technology load pricing
10
5
GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE SEMINAR
Age dependency, change to footprint not mass
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
A B C D E MPV OTHER PUP CUV FF SUV
Copyright © 2010 IHS. All Rights Reserved.

12. Vehicle Miles Traveled more than
doubles!
20,000
18,000
16,000 Africa
Middle East
14,000
Eurasia
12,000
OECD Asia
10,000
Latin America
8,000
Non OECD Asia
6,000
Europe
4,000
NAFTA
2,000
0 GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE SEMINAR
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028
Copyright © 2010 IHS. All Rights Reserved.

13. … And Tank-to-Tire CO2 begins to level
off around 2030
Global Tank-to-Wheel CO2
5.00
4.50
4.00
109 Tons/yr CO2
3.50 CNG
3.00 Electricity*
2.50 Forecast includes certain Ethanol
2.00 assumptions including:
Diesel
1.50 • Modest shifts to smaller cars
Gasoline
1.00 • ~20% reduction in energy
intensity per average vehicle
0.50
GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE SEMINAR • Mild reductions in Avg VMT
0.00
00
03
06
09
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
* Source to tank
Copyright © 2010 IHS. All Rights Reserved.