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The acceleration of disruption: opportunities and threats for construction - David Wood (London Futurists) #COMIT2016

Presentation by David Wood of London Futurists at COMIT 2016: Digitally Building Britain, September 2016
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The acceleration of disruption: opportunities and threats for construction - David Wood (London Futurists) #COMIT2016

  1. 1. The acceleration of disruption David Wood, @dw2 Chair of London Futurists Principal, Delta Wisdom Opportunities and threats for construction
  2. 2. Robots threaten 15M UK jobs, says Bank of England's chief economist “Admin, clerical and production tasks most at threat” 50% The Guardian@dw2
  3. 3. 137M (56% of salaried workforce) from 5 SE Asian countries at high-risk Cambodia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam Straits Times@dw2
  4. 4. Foxconn factory employees reduced from 110k to 50k, thanks to robots Kunshan, in Jiangsu province South China MP@dw2
  5. 5. “Computerisation should have little effect on the percentage of the work force engaged in these tasks… “Non-routine manual tasks: physical tasks that cannot be well-described as following a set of If- Then-Else rules, because they require optical recognition and fine motion control that have proven extremely difficult for computers to carry out…” “Examples include driving a truck… Frank Levy MIT Richard J. Murnane Harvard @dw2
  6. 6. Completed <5% of the course Sandstorm: Winner of 2004 DARPA Grand Challenge 150 miles in the Mojave Desert region of the US 2005 Challenge: Five vehicles completed whole course   @dw2
  7. 7. Truck drivers Taxi drivers Insurance salespeople Lots of other professions? … Creative professions? Professions with human insight? Self-driving flying cars! @dw2
  8. 8. “What’s interesting in Go is that there’s been a lot of progress in the last decade… “The best Go programs are now at a stage where they can give a few stones handicap to a top Go player, a world-class Go player, and beat him. “This has happened quite recently - much to the amazement to the top Go players. “I would guess that we are 20 years away from having a Go program that can play at a level equivalent to Kasparov or Carlsen.” David Levy 1976 Interviewed in Dec 2013 1968 (£1,250) -> 1978  -> 1983 ($1,000)  -> 1989  (Deep Thought) -> 1997  (Kasparov) @dw2
  9. 9. AI, Deep Learning => Pattern detection (Artificial Intuition) 2016 AlphaGo 4, Lee Sedol 1 @dw2
  10. 10. The third machine age 1. Machines replaced human muscular effort – They manipulated energy – They produced motion 2. Then machines replaced human calculation effort – They manipulated information (using algorithms) – They produced numerical results 3. Machines are now replacing human creative effort – They manipulate “learning data” to reveal cause-effect patterns – They produce algorithms (using information) – They progress from a seed algorithm to unexpected new insight @dw2
  11. 11. “A group of young people playing Frisbee” AI, Deep Learning => Computer vision @dw2
  12. 12. “A person riding a motorcycle on a dirt road” @dw2
  13. 13. “A yellow bus driving down a road with green trees and green grass in the background” Photo via Andrew Ng, Chief Scientist, Baidu @dw2
  14. 14. BN CI NBIC Convergence
  15. 15. Atoms Genes Bits Neurons Bio- Tech Nano- Tech Cogno- Tech Info- Tech Software Hardware BiologyPhysical
  16. 16. Performance-enhancing drugs Nootropics Cognotech: IA BN CI
  17. 17. Performance-enhancing headsets “This Startup Gets You High On Dopamine, No Exercise Required” @dw2
  18. 18. Augmented Reality (AR) via smart glasses @dw2
  19. 19. “Smart Glasses Market 2015” – report from AugmentedReality.ORG @dw2
  20. 20. “Towards 1 Billion Shipments … within 10 years” – Ori Inbar Glasses phase 1 -> phase 2 -> phase 3 -> phase 4… @dw2
  21. 21. Design, Manufacturing Computers Positive feedback cycles @dw2
  22. 22. Software tools (debuggers, compilers…) Software Positive feedback cycles @dw2
  23. 23. AI tools AI Positive feedback cycles @dw2
  24. 24. Education Technology Positive feedback cycles @dw2
  25. 25. People Technology Education Networks Tools Positive feedback cycle Designers Entrepreneurs Engineers EducatorsIntegrators Artificial Intelligence Deep Learning The acceleration of technology The acceleration of disruption
  26. 26. 1. Improve your strategic reviews 2. Improve your foresight skills and trend management 3. Practice agile futurism 4. Practice collaborative futurism Surviving accelerated disruption: Four takeaways @dw2
  27. 27. Implications for strategy Strategy = choice: what you’ll do, and what you’ll not do Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats Sources of upside Sources of downside Internal (company) External (environment) Forthcoming Opportunities Forthcoming Threats Future (scenarios) Strategy = preparation: readiness for key changes SWOT Increasingly crucial @dw2
  28. 28. Opportunities Threats The set of possible future scenarios Foresight… … is hard Acceleration of technology Multi-convergence of factors Business as usual
  29. 29. Trend management: seeing what’s credible 1. Identifying trends: establish your catalogue of trends – Technological trends – Social trends – Political trends 2. Cultivate sources of insight – Customer insight – Competitor insight – Employee insight – Research insight – Futurist insight 3. Build and review scenarios – Combinations of trends – both disruptive and incremental – Consider what to put in, and what to leave out (e.g. formerly key DNA!) => Decide what’s desirable Gain insight in stages @dw2
  30. 30. Inertia (Waterfall) • Elaborate planning • Painstaking execution • Stick to the plan! • Big Design Up Front • Executives’ intuition • Secrecy • Execute a single scenario • Typically disappoint market Agile / Lean • Experimentation • Sprints deliver incrementally • Be ready to pivot! • Iterative Design • Customer feedback • Customer feedback • Search for insight on scenarios • Anticipate market delight (early & often) 26/09/2016 30 @dw2
  31. 31. Drawback of non-Agile execution What the market would, in the end, like to have What the initial plan estimated the market would like Time in the (non-agile) case when “the plan is king” Delivery Measure of market dissatisfaction Don’t lock into scenarios too early @dw2
  32. 32. With Agile development (and regular customer feedback) What the market would, in the end, like to have What the initial plan estimated the market would like Time following agile (adaptive) planning Delivery Measure of market delight Improve your foresight planning with regular feedback from wider circle @dw2
  33. 33. People Technology Education Networks Tools Positive feedback cycle Designers Entrepreneurs Engineers Futurists! Scenarios EducatorsIntegrators
  34. 34. 1. Improve your strategic reviews – Futurist perspectives add a third column to strategy reviews 2. Improve your foresight skills and trend management – Trend analysis, consider interactions – Create & assess multiple scenarios – Identify “canary signals” in advance 3. Practice agile futurism – Review your trends and scenarios (at least) once each quarter – Fail fast, fail smart, fail forward – pivot to new experiment 4. Practice collaborative futurism – Benefit from the positive feedback cycle for foresight – Prepare for “smart acquisitions” if fast changes make them necessary Positive feedback cycle Surviving accelerated disruption: Four takeaways Intelligent sustainable visionary urgency @dw2
  35. 35. Source material for preceding slides 2 of-england-chief-economist 3 automation-in-next-two-decades-ilo 4 culled-just-one-factory-chinas 5 6 7 companies-competing-together/ 8 11,12 13 @dw2
  36. 36. Source materials (continued) 17 18 20 “Smart Glasses Market 2015” – report from AugmentedReality.ORG Further reading Blog @dw2