Predictions – good, bad, ugly
Roadblocks en route to 2025
David Wood, @dw2
Principal, Delta WisdomChair, London Futurists
#Anticipating2025

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http://valleywag.gawker.com/the-biggest-bullshit-job-titles-in-tech-1521536472
Fashion Evangelist at Tumblr
Digital Prophet at AOL
Entrepreneur-in-Residence
at The Atlantic
Hacker-in-Residence at LinkedIn
Chief Curator at eBay
Chief Happiness Officer
at Delivering Happiness
Anyone who self-describes as a
Futurist
– which is barely even a word,
let alone a job.

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Opportunities
Threats
The set
of
possible
futures
Prediction…
… is hard

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Rate of
pace of
change
increasing
Prediction…
… getting harder
Complex
convergence
of
technologies
and
risks
Opportunities
Threats
So we need to get better at it!

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Page 5
Four overlapping trajectories
2014
2025
Humanity+
Humanity 1.0
Transhumanism

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Predicting collaboration
“In Europe the epoch of conquest is over…
It is as certain as anything in politics that the frontiers of our
national states are finally drawn. My own belief is that there
will be no more war among the six powers”
War between the great powers has become an economic
impossibility because of “the delicate interdependence of
international finance”
1910: The Great Illusion, Norman Angell, British journalist
Spring 1914: Henry Noel Brailsford, British member of the
international commission reporting on the Balkan Wars
http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/books/reviews/the-ascent-of-money-by-niall-ferguson-980013.html
http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/peace/laureates/1933/angell-bio.html
http://www.marxists.org/history/archive/brailsford/index.htm

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Predictions fail because of…
• Connections that no-one fully understands
– Innovations that no-one fully understands
• Unfounded over-confidence
– Underestimates of weaknesses in existing human psychology
– Underestimates of weaknesses in existing social institutions
• Systems that are pumped up & take on a life of their own
– Via positive feedback cycles (“reflexivity”)
Positive
feedback
cycle

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Predicting economic well-being
“It is hard for us, and without being flippant, to even see a scenario
within any kind of realm of reason that would see us losing $1 in any
of those [credit default swaps] transactions”
Joe Cassano, AIG Chief Financial Officer,
Wall Street investor conference call, August 2007
http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=7210007
“Those of us who have looked to the self-interest of lending
institutions to protect shareholders’ equity
(myself especially) are in a state of shocked disbelief”
– Alan Greenspan, Federal Reserve chairman, Oct 2008
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/oct/24/economics-creditcrunch-federal-reserve-greenspan

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First Nokia “mobile phone”
Nokia Mobira Senator (1982)
Weighed about 21 pounds
Designed for use in or near cars
1980s McKinsey forecast for AT&T
0.9 million mobile US subscribers by 2000
Actual figure: 109 million
Worldwide 1 billion by 2002, 2B by 2005, 7B by 2012...
Hard to predict the effects of sustained tech growth!
Devices increasingly numerous, lighter, and more useful
www.xtimeline.com/evt/view.aspx?id=25921
www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/22/AR2008022202283_2.html
Predicting technology improvement
Positive
feedback
cycle

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Computations per kWh, 1950-2010
Improvement in energy efficiency of computers
Source:
Jonathan Koomey,
Consulting Professor, Stanford
Technology Review,
9 Apr 2012
10^3 to 10^15
40 doublings over 60 years
http://www.technologyreview.com/news/427444/the-computing-trend-that-will-change-everything/
18 months average doubling
In line with “Moore’s Law”

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Page 11www.intel.com/pressroom/kits/events/moores_law_40th/
(Gordon) Moore’s Law: 1965

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Predicting the end of Moore’s Law
2014
“Moore’s Law is coming to an end—in the next decade it will
pretty much come to an end so we have 15 years or so…
We still have another 15 years or so to enjoy”
Henry Samueli, CTO Broadcom, May 2013
http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1263256
Mike Mayberry, VP Technology and Manufacturing, Intel
“If you’re only using the same technology, then in principle you
run into limits. The truth is we've been modifying the
technology every five or seven years for 40 years, and there's
no end in sight for being able to do that”
http://news.cnet.com/8301-11386_3-57526581-76/moores-law-the-rule-that-really-matters-in-tech/

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Improvement in wireless networks
www.arraycomm.com/technology/coopers-law
Cooper’s Law: The amount of information that
can be transmitted over useful radio spectrum has
roughly doubled every 30 months since 1895
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1373272/
The-day-Martin-Cooper-took-mobile-phone-public-leaving-New-Yorkers-bemused-bewildered.html

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The 3 drivers for exponential improvement
1. Physical possibility
– “There’s plenty of room at the bottom”
2. Ongoing engineering ingenuity & investment
– Intel, ARM, Qualcomm, Nvidia, Broadcom,
Ericsson, Huawei, NTT DoCoMo, governments…
– (Healthy competition helps!)
3. Ongoing benefits to end users (to fund investment)
– Users willing to keep paying for new features / quality
Positive
feedback
cycle

http://www.slideshare.net/GenomeInABottle/george-church
http://www.geneticsandsociety.org/article.php?id=4328
Professor
George Church
Harvard

http://www.slideshare.net/GenomeInABottle/george-church
http://www.geneticsandsociety.org/article.php?id=4328
Professor
George Church
Harvard
Positive
feedback
cycle

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The Carlson curves (Rob Carlson)
Rob Carlson, June 2011: www.synthesis.cc
Cost per
Base of DNA
Sequencing
(Reading)
& Synthesis
(Writing)

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The Carlson curves (Rob Carlson)
Rob Carlson, Feb 2014: www.synthesis.cc
Price per
Base of DNA
Sequencing
(Reading)
& Synthesis
(Writing)

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Predicting the impact of technology
“Books will soon be obsolete in schools”
“It is possible to teach every branch of human
knowledge with the motion picture”
“Our school system will be completely changed
inside of ten years”
July 1913, The New York Dramatic Mirror
Thomas Alva Edison
http://quoteinvestigator.com/2012/02/15/books-obsolete/
http://edison.rutgers.edu/taephren.htm

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When technology achieves impact
1. Underlying core technology has sufficient performance
 E.g. semiconductor CPU power, hi-res graphics screens, GPS sensors…
2. Applications exist to deliver user value from this technology
 Real benefits; Acceptable usability; Acceptable price: Cross the chasm
3. Network infrastructure & business environment is supportive
 E.g. battery charging stations, application stores: “the value chain”
4. Legal framework is supportive – e.g. government legislation, subsidies
5. Prevailing philosophies are supportive – user expectations
 E.g. “Be the best you can be” vs. “Decay is natural”, “Don’t play God”

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Overcoming the
roadblocks ahead
=> Accelerate the technologies of abundance
Clear, reliable info about radical future scenarios
Highlight the problems most needing solutions
Engage the whole brain – art as well as science
Personable spokespeople (“people like me”)
Encourage a collaborative “Humanity+” value set
Demonstrate incremental steps on an roadmap