More Related Content

Similar to Predictions - Good, bad, and ugly(20)


Predictions - Good, bad, and ugly

  1. Predictions – good, bad, ugly Roadblocks en route to 2025 David Wood, @dw2 Principal, Delta WisdomChair, London Futurists #Anticipating2025
  2. #Anticipating2025 @dw2 Page 2 Fashion Evangelist at Tumblr Digital Prophet at AOL Entrepreneur-in-Residence at The Atlantic Hacker-in-Residence at LinkedIn Chief Curator at eBay Chief Happiness Officer at Delivering Happiness Anyone who self-describes as a Futurist – which is barely even a word, let alone a job.
  3. #Anticipating2025 @dw2 Page 3 Opportunities Threats The set of possible futures Prediction… … is hard
  4. #Anticipating2025 @dw2 Page 4 Rate of pace of change increasing Prediction… … getting harder Complex convergence of technologies and risks Opportunities Threats So we need to get better at it!
  5. #Anticipating2025 @dw2 Page 5 Four overlapping trajectories 2014 2025 Humanity+ Humanity 1.0 Transhumanism
  6. #Anticipating2025 @dw2 Page 6 Predicting collaboration “In Europe the epoch of conquest is over… It is as certain as anything in politics that the frontiers of our national states are finally drawn. My own belief is that there will be no more war among the six powers” War between the great powers has become an economic impossibility because of “the delicate interdependence of international finance” 1910: The Great Illusion, Norman Angell, British journalist Spring 1914: Henry Noel Brailsford, British member of the international commission reporting on the Balkan Wars
  7. #Anticipating2025 @dw2 Page 7 Predictions fail because of… • Connections that no-one fully understands – Innovations that no-one fully understands • Unfounded over-confidence – Underestimates of weaknesses in existing human psychology – Underestimates of weaknesses in existing social institutions • Systems that are pumped up & take on a life of their own – Via positive feedback cycles (“reflexivity”) Positive feedback cycle
  8. #Anticipating2025 @dw2 Page 8 Predicting economic well-being “It is hard for us, and without being flippant, to even see a scenario within any kind of realm of reason that would see us losing $1 in any of those [credit default swaps] transactions” Joe Cassano, AIG Chief Financial Officer, Wall Street investor conference call, August 2007 “Those of us who have looked to the self-interest of lending institutions to protect shareholders’ equity (myself especially) are in a state of shocked disbelief” – Alan Greenspan, Federal Reserve chairman, Oct 2008
  9. #Anticipating2025 @dw2 Page 9 First Nokia “mobile phone” Nokia Mobira Senator (1982) Weighed about 21 pounds Designed for use in or near cars 1980s McKinsey forecast for AT&T 0.9 million mobile US subscribers by 2000 Actual figure: 109 million Worldwide 1 billion by 2002, 2B by 2005, 7B by 2012... Hard to predict the effects of sustained tech growth! Devices increasingly numerous, lighter, and more useful Predicting technology improvement Positive feedback cycle
  10. #Anticipating2025 @dw2 Page 10 Computations per kWh, 1950-2010 Improvement in energy efficiency of computers Source: Jonathan Koomey, Consulting Professor, Stanford Technology Review, 9 Apr 2012 10^3 to 10^15 40 doublings over 60 years 18 months average doubling In line with “Moore’s Law”
  11. #Anticipating2025 @dw2 Page (Gordon) Moore’s Law: 1965
  12. #Anticipating2025 @dw2 Page 12 Predicting the end of Moore’s Law 2014 “Moore’s Law is coming to an end—in the next decade it will pretty much come to an end so we have 15 years or so… We still have another 15 years or so to enjoy” Henry Samueli, CTO Broadcom, May 2013 Mike Mayberry, VP Technology and Manufacturing, Intel “If you’re only using the same technology, then in principle you run into limits. The truth is we've been modifying the technology every five or seven years for 40 years, and there's no end in sight for being able to do that”
  13. #Anticipating2025 @dw2 Page 13 Improvement in wireless networks Cooper’s Law: The amount of information that can be transmitted over useful radio spectrum has roughly doubled every 30 months since 1895 The-day-Martin-Cooper-took-mobile-phone-public-leaving-New-Yorkers-bemused-bewildered.html
  14. #Anticipating2025 @dw2 Page 14 The 3 drivers for exponential improvement 1. Physical possibility – “There’s plenty of room at the bottom” 2. Ongoing engineering ingenuity & investment – Intel, ARM, Qualcomm, Nvidia, Broadcom, Ericsson, Huawei, NTT DoCoMo, governments… – (Healthy competition helps!) 3. Ongoing benefits to end users (to fund investment) – Users willing to keep paying for new features / quality Positive feedback cycle
  15. Professor George Church Harvard
  16. Professor George Church Harvard Positive feedback cycle
  17. #Anticipating2025 @dw2 Page 17 The Carlson curves (Rob Carlson) Rob Carlson, June 2011: Cost per Base of DNA Sequencing (Reading) & Synthesis (Writing)
  18. #Anticipating2025 @dw2 Page 18 The Carlson curves (Rob Carlson) Rob Carlson, Feb 2014: Price per Base of DNA Sequencing (Reading) & Synthesis (Writing)
  19. #Anticipating2025 @dw2 Page 19 Predicting the impact of technology “Books will soon be obsolete in schools” “It is possible to teach every branch of human knowledge with the motion picture” “Our school system will be completely changed inside of ten years” July 1913, The New York Dramatic Mirror Thomas Alva Edison
  20. #Anticipating2025 @dw2 Page 20 When technology achieves impact 1. Underlying core technology has sufficient performance  E.g. semiconductor CPU power, hi-res graphics screens, GPS sensors… 2. Applications exist to deliver user value from this technology  Real benefits; Acceptable usability; Acceptable price: Cross the chasm 3. Network infrastructure & business environment is supportive  E.g. battery charging stations, application stores: “the value chain” 4. Legal framework is supportive – e.g. government legislation, subsidies 5. Prevailing philosophies are supportive – user expectations  E.g. “Be the best you can be” vs. “Decay is natural”, “Don’t play God”
  21. #Anticipating2025 @dw2 Page 21 Overcoming the roadblocks ahead => Accelerate the technologies of abundance Clear, reliable info about radical future scenarios Highlight the problems most needing solutions Engage the whole brain – art as well as science Personable spokespeople (“people like me”) Encourage a collaborative “Humanity+” value set Demonstrate incremental steps on an roadmap