Presented by Perdinan, PhD. MNRE, IPB University at Webinar - Coastal Zone Rehabilitation for Low Carbon Development on 31 March 2022.

2. Climate Vulnerability and Risks of
Mangrove Ecosystem in Indonesia
Perdinan, PhD. MNRE
IPB University
(perdinan@apps.ipb.ac.id)

3. Indonesia’s NDC Adaptation Target 2030
Source: Roadmap NDC on Adaptation Aspect (MoEF,2021)
Support economic resilience of at least 1.72% of GDP through low-carbon
economic transformation and resilience in food, water and energy systems.
Increase the ecosystem services and landscape resilience up to 0.83% of
GDP through an integrated landscape-based approach in the management
of terrestrial, marine and coastal ecosystems
Realizing social and livelihoods resilience of 0.32% of GDP through
capacity building in various living systems
Building resilience and increasing
adaptive capacity to reduce the risk
of climate change by 2.87% of GDP
through economic, social and
livelihood resilience, as well as
ecosystems and landscapes in
meeting people's basic needs: food,
water, energy with a landscape
approach (environmental health,
ecosystems, and disasters ).
Referring to Indonesia's economic growth target and funding ability to reduce potential
losses, then climate change adaptation in Indonesia is targeted to:
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4. Climate Change Adaptation Action based on Climate Risk Analysis
Climate Change
Analysis
Assessment of
Vulnerability, Risk and
Impact of Climate
Change
Recommended
Adaptation Options
Selected Adaptation
Options
Defining the Adaptation
Actions
Literature Review of
Adaptation Strategy
Integration of the adaptation
options to development plan
Prioritization of Adaptation
Options
Steps
Identification of specific
area/sector coverage
targets
Formulation the
impact of Climate
Change
PLODOT - Survey
BASELINE 2030 2050
BANJIR
TANAH
LONGSOR
KEKERINGAN
ANGIN
KENCANG
Tinggi
Rendah
SR R S T ST
4
10 10
3
7
Jumlah Kelurahan
Identify Adaptation
Actions
Determination of
Adaptation Baseline
PLOTIV – Project Management
• Intervention Location
• Action Options
• Executor
• Policy Direction
• Target Time
• Achievement Indicator
PLOVIS – Visualization
PLOBOKS
Workshop, Short
Training, Seminar,
Survey (HH, KII)
PILEARN – Learning Tools
UNDERSTANDING RESULTS
ANALYSIS and PROJECTION
AGRICULTURE
FISHERY
HEALTH
DISASTER
Stakeholder
Engagement
1.
2.
5.
4.
3.
FLOODS
Ecotourism Climate stress resistant seeds
Analysis
Method
Vulnerability and Risk Assessment refers
to MoEF Regulation P.7 No. 2018
Source: Illustration of MoEF Regulation 33/2016 and 7/2018
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5. Mangrove Ecosystem in Indonesia
27% of global mangrove area
48 percent of Indonesia's mangrove forests are damaged
Climate
Biophysics
Human
Mangrove
Vulnerability
Increasing Factor
Mangrove Vulnerability
Minister of Forestry Regulation P. 35/Menhut-
II/2010 (based on mangrove canopy density level)
Complement
To respond future climate change
5

6. Framework for CCA in Mangrove Ecosystem
Biophysics
Mangrove
Vulnerability Analysis
Human Activity
Climate
Factor
Mangrove
Growth Factor
Salinity, Wind,
Temperature, Tides,
Waves
Product
Environmental
Services
Climate Change
Adaptation
Land
Degradation
Vegetation
0 m
Mangrove as
Individual
Bio Indicator
Habitat
0-130 x Tidal Range
Group of Mangroves
Biophysical Interaction
Biophysical Indicator
Ecosystem
>130 x Tidal Range
Group of Mangroves
Biophysical Interaction
Human Interaction
Biophysical Indicator
Social Economy
Concept of Dividing the Mangrove Area
6

7. 7
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8. Case Study: Pekalongan, West Java
Tegal Meteorology Station (Tegal)
81km from Pekalongan
Climate Profile
Mangrove Conditions
Planned
90 Ha
Existing
5.7 Ha
72,5% (Rhizophora sp.)
Mangrove diversity 12 species:
1. Avicennia lanata Ridley
2. Avicennia marina (Forsk.) Vierh.
3. Bruguiera gymnorrhiza (L.)
4. Rhizophora apiculata Blume
5. Rhizophora mucronata Lam.
6. Rhizophora stylosa Griff.
7. Sonneratia alba J. Sm.
8. Sonneratia caseolaris (L.) Engl.
9. Nypa fruticans Wurmb
10.Acrostichum aereum L.
11. Acanthus ilicifolius L.
12. Teminalia catappa L.)
Mangrove Master plan
Geographic Condition
• Area 4.525 Ha
• Land Slope 0-5%
• Coastline 6 Km
• Sea level 0,5 – 25 m
Mangrove Condition
Mangrove Ecotourism
Pekalongan’s Mangrove Park
• Conservation and sustainable development
base
• Tracks in the mangrove (walking or by boat)
• Seeing the interaction of various biota
associated with the mangrove ecosystem
Potential Disaster Threat
Tidal flood, land subsident
8

9. Case Study: Demak, West Java
Ahmad Yani Meteorology Station (Semarang)
34km from Demak
Climate Profile
Mangrove Conditions
Planned 90 Ha
Existing 2.021,28 Ha:
Wedung Districts (1.067,37 Ha)
Bonang Districts (324,47 Ha)
Karangtengah Districts (173,66 Ha )
Sayung Districts(455,79 Ha )
Mangrove Change
Geographics Condition
• Area 89.743 Ha
• Elevation 0-10 meter
• Abration rate 4,70 m/tahun
Coastline change
Growth -3,49 ha/tahun
Land Use Change to pond
Mangrove diversity 9
species :
1. Avicennia marina,
2. Rhizophora mucronata,
3. Rhizophora stylosa,
4. Rhizophora apiculata,
5. Sonneratia casiolaris,
6. Brugueira cylindrica,
7. Avicennia alba,
8. Excoecaria agallocha
9. Ceriop decandra.
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10. Parameter
Sub
Indicator
Indicator
Compenent
Component 1
Indicator 1.1
Sub Indicator
1.1.1
Variable 1.1.1.1
Variable 1.1.1.2
Sub indicator
1.1.2 variable 1.1.2.1
Indicator 1.2 Sub Indicator
1.2.1
Data/Variable
1.2.1.1
HAZARDS (H): The potential
occurrence of a natural event
that can cause harm
EXPOSURE (E): The presence of humans,
livelihoods, species/ecosystems, environmental
functions, services, and resources,
infrastructure, or economic, social and cultural
assets in areas or locations that may experience
negative impacts
VULNERABILITY (V): Tendency to experience
negative impacts. Vulnerability includes sensitivity to
negative impacts and lack of adaptive capacity to
cope with negative impacts.
RISK (R): The potential for
adverse consequences
Vulnerability and Risk Measure
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11. Defining Indicators
1. The indicators was developed to complement the procedure of assessing mangrove status in
Indonesia as regulated by the Ministerial Decree of Forestry No. P. 35/Menhut-II/2010
2. The indicators are grouped into biophysical, socio-economic, and climatic factors.
3. The indicators are constructed using related data available in Indonesia
4. The indicators were analyzed to determine possible recommendations for adaptation actions
▪ sedimentation,
▪ mangrove areas,
▪ river conditions,
▪ mangrove nutrients,
▪ land conditions,
▪ biotic mangrove
associations,
▪ productivity,
▪ resilience,
▪ tidal waves,
▪ sea level rise
▪ population,
▪ institutions,
▪ coastal activities,
▪ level of welfare,
▪ accessibility, and
▪ community behavior
▪ rainfall,
▪ air
temperature,
▪ humidity, and
wind field
Biophysics Socio-Economic Climate Stressor
Please refer to R E P Tjahjono, Perdinan, et al. (2022), https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/959/1/012041/met ,
for details of parameters and data constructed each indicator.
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12. Evaluation of indicators
contributing to the
dynamics of vulnerability
and risk of mangrove
ecosystems in
Pekalongan and Demak.
Determine the indicators to
be intervened by setting
thresholds for each risk
component of sensitivity,
capacity, and exposure to
respond to the threat
component of climate
change
Case Study
12

13. Sensitivity
Exposur
e
Adaptive
Capacity
Vulnerability
Socio-Economic Vulnerability
Map of Mangrove Vulnerability in Coastal Area
13

14. Map of Mangrove Risk Level in Central Java
”Most coastal areas in Central Java
have a moderate to high level of climate
and marine hazards”
14

15. Recommendation – Adaptation Action in Mangrove Ecosystem
No Indicator Recommended Adaptation Options
1 Air Temperature,
Sea Surface
Temperature
▪ Increasing mangrove conservation area
▪ Use of climate stress-resistant seeds (Avicennia sp., Aegiceras spp., Aegialitis spp., Sonneratia spp., Osbornia spp.,
Lumnitzera spp., Laguncularia spp. Rhizophora stylosa, Ceriops, and Excocaria,
▪ Increase the availability and ease the access to weather data and information, especially those related to the coast
and the sea related to the planning and monitoring of mangrove areas
▪ Improve the skills of coastal communities in cultivation with the aim of conservation, restoration, and rehabilitation
▪ Research and development of mangrove ecosystems specifically in responds to climate risks
2 Environmental
Carrying
Capacity
▪ Coastal spatial planning and regulation with impact risk climate change
▪ Requires mutually beneficial area management (co-management)
▪ Strengthening policies and law enforcement against illegal activities such as illegal mining and violations of the
RTRW
▪ Limitation of land burden on development
▪ Prepare mitigation measures to control abrasion/accretion
3 Population ▪ Restrictions and arrangements for residential development in the area coast
▪ Maintaining the balance of people's livelihood sources to the ratio of the number of people
▪ Prepare scenarios for distribution of food sources to vulnerable groups
4 Education Level ▪ Setting up informal education for strengthening and accelerating risk knowledge
▪ Setting up affordable education and school schemes for coastal communities
5 Community
Wellbeing level
▪ Increasing the capacity of coastal communities in managing resources derived from mangroves
▪ Build cooperation with private parties in distribution and sales channels based on coastal area products
▪ Assistance in ecotourism management based on ecosystem resilience

16. Thank you