Presented at AI NEXTCon Seattle 1/17-20, 2018
http://aisea18.xnextcon.com
join our free online AI group with 50,000+ tech engineers to learn and practice AI technology, including: latest AI news, tech articles/blogs, tech talks, tutorial videos, and hands-on workshop/codelabs, on machine learning, deep learning, data science, etc..
2. Oren Etzioni
CEO, Allen Institute
for Artificial Intelligence (AI2)
allenai.org
(Professor, University of Washington)
The Future of AI
3. Outline
I. AI, AlphaGo, and Deep learning
II. Is AI an Existential Risk?
III. AI for the Common Good (AI2)
SemanticScholar.org
3
4. What Is AI?
AI is machines doing what humans do:
• Gave rise to a lot of Hollywood scripts
• AI as a noun: “the AI” took over the world…
AI in practice:
• The science & engineering of software to accomplish narrow tasks once thought
to require human intelligence
4
8. Haven’t We Seen This Movie Before?
8
Deep Blue beats Kasparov in 1997
9. Go Is Far More Difficult Than Chess
9
Chess Go
Board Size 8 x 8 19 x 19
Estimated Branching Factor ~35 ~250
Estimated Game Tree Depth 𝟒𝟎 𝟏𝟓𝟎
Est. Number of possible
games
𝟏𝟎 𝟒𝟕
𝟏𝟎 𝟏𝟕𝟎
Go board position evaluation is challenging
10. Myth: AlphaGo Shows The Way To AI
Board games are “black and white”
- Discrete moves
- Win/lose è evaluation function
Labeled data is essentially “infinite”
AlphaGo Zero: Self play.
10
11. Arthur C. Clarke
“Sufficiently advanced technology is
indistinguishable from magic...”
11
Deep Learning isn’t magic!
Source: Etzioni (Wired Magazine 2016)
12. Machine Learning Is 99% Human Work
Deep Learning inputs:
• Target concept
• Algorithm
• Neural network design
12
“Figuring out how to optimize
something is a CS problem. But
figuring out what to optimize is not.”
(Nate Silver, paraphrased)
13. My Questions for AlphaGo
• Can you play again?
• Can you play poker?
• Cross the street?
• Can you tell us about
the game?
13
No autonomy.
No.
No.
No.
Super-human performance on a
narrow task, does not translate to
human-level performance in
general!
14. Winograd Schemas (Levesque, 2011)
The large ball crashed right through the table because it was
made of styrofoam.
It = table
The large ball crashed right through the table because it was
made of steel.
It = ball
Common-sense knowledge &
tractable reasoning are necessary
for basic understanding!
14
2016 Challenge: 58.33% Correct
21. Hollywood Myth: SkyNet
AI will be hegemonic, monolithic, and evil
One AI can be utilized to check
and counterbalance others (Etzioni & Etzioni, 2016)
Research on AI Guardians
Fact: Intelligence ≠ Autonomy
“Autonomous cars” is a misnomer
21
22. Outline
I. AI, AlphaGo, and Deep learning
II. Is AI an Existential Risk?
III. AI for the Common Good (AI2)
SemanticScholar.org
22
29. AI Field Is Fast
Moving, Amorphous
AI CARS
AI TOYS
ROBOTS
Regulate AI
Applications
30. Responsibility: an AI is
subject to the laws that
apply to its human
operator
My AI “did it” is not an excuse.
THE DOG ATE MY HOMEWORK…
(Etzioni Op-Ed, 9/1/17)
31. Disclosure: an AI shall disclose that it is not human.
Source: TV Series Finale Humans
(Etzioni Op-Ed, 9/1/17)
32. an AI shall not retain or disclose confidential
information without approval from the source.
Privacy:
AI Barbie
Amazon Echo
Roomba
(Etzioni Op-Ed, 9/1/17)
36. 36
Our incubator helps entrepreneurs build
large, impactful, AI-fueled companies.
CTO Residency
Program
Early-Stage
Startups
Entrepreneurs
in Residence
We train and mentor talented
engineers on the latest in
Deep Learning, Computer
Vision, ML, and more.
We help early-stage
startups build out their
AI teams and accelerate
their AI capabilities.
We help successful
entrepreneurs build their
next billion-dollar startup
with AI at the core.
38. 1 2 3
38
CTO Residency Program (January 23!)
Get up to 12-months of
highly exclusive training
on Deep Learning, NLP,
Computer Vision, ML, etc.
Pair with a successful
CEO to collaboratively
start building a new
company together.
Exit the incubator as
CTO of your new startup
with a large amount of
co-founder equity.