Spohrer esw 20160408 v4

Jim Spohrer (IBM)
Berkeley , CA USA – ESW Conference
Friday April 8, 2016
http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/spohrer-esw-20160408-v4
4/9/2016 1
Engineering Grand Challenges
& Solving Them
(with a little help from the future:
our very polite cognitive mediators)

Thank-you to Wendy Murphy!
4/9/2016
© IBM UPWard 2016
2

Grand Challenges
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© IBM UPWard 2016
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$5M Prize: for best AI to help us
on societal grand challenge problems
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© IBM UPWard 2016
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Better Building Blocks
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© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
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What can one person know and make?
4/9/2016
development
7

4/9/2016
development
8
Brief History of Knowledge and Making: Personbyte and Peoplebyte

4/9/2016
development
9
Future of Skills

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1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055

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© IBM UPWard 2016
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© IBM UPWard 2016
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What might Reality 2.0 look like?

What exists in 2016?
4/9/2016
development
13
360,000 100,000 120,000 60,000 150,000

Computing: Then, Now, Projected
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2035
2055

4/9/2016
development
15

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development
16

How fast is Reality 2.0 approaching?
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What might it look like?

“The best way to predict the future is to inspire the
next generation of students to build it better”
Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing
Energy Construction ICT Retail
Finance Healthcare Education Government

The Maker Movement &
Open Source Ecology
4/9/2016
development
19

By 2036, T-Shaped Makers with great
Building Blocks and Cognitive Mediators
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Empathy & Teamwork
sector
region/culture
discipline
Depth
Breadth
STEM
Liberal Arts

Brief History
of AI
1956 – Dartmouth Conference
1956 – 1981 Micro-Worlds
1981 – Japanese 5th Generation
1988 – Expert Systems Peak
1990 – AI Winter
1997 – Deep Blue
1997 – 2011 Real-World
2011 – Jeopardy! & SIRI
2013 – Cognitive Systems Institute
2014 – Watson Business Unit &
True North Brain Chip
2015 – “Cognition as a Service”
on IBM Bluemix
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development
21

Cognitive Assistants for all occupations
are beginning to appear
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development
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development
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Cognitive Assistants
for all occupations

Occupations = Many Tasks
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development
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Watson Discovery Advisor
4/9/2016
development
25
Simonite, T. 2014. Software Mines Science Papers to Make New Discoveries. MIT. November 25, 2014.
URL: http://m.technologyreview.com/news/520461/software-mines-science-papers-to-make-new-discoveries/

User Models
4/9/2016
development
26

Courses
2015
– “How to build a cognitive system for Q&A task.”
– 9 months to 40% question answering accuracy
– 1-2 years for 90% accuracy, which questions to reject
2025
– “How to use a cognitive system to be a better professional X.”
– Tools to build a student level Q&A from textbook in 1 week
2035
– “How to use your cognitive assistant to build a startup.”
– Tools to build faculty level Q&A for textbook in one day
– Cognitive mediator knows a person better than they know themselves
2055
– “How to manage your workforce of cognitive assistants.”
– Most people have 100 cognitive assistants working for them.
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Learning to program:
My first program
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development
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Early Computer Science Class:
Watson Center at Columbia 1945
Jim Spohrer’s
First Program 1972

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development
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development
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Reality 2.0 Service Platform:
polite cognitive mediators (CM1,CM2)
do not interrupt people (P1,P2)
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© IBM UPWard 2016
31
Service Platform
CM2
P2
CM1
P1
100x
100x 100x

And Beyond… Utility Fog
• Ultimate vision of
material and energy
flows inseparable with
information flows
• Universal Building
Block
– Utility Fog:
Manufactured Things
– Cells:
Living Things

4/9/2016
development
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Explain external
phenomena

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development
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Explain internal
phenomena

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development
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Explain
value co-creation
phenomena

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development
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Physics Chemistry Biology
Neuroscience Psychology Artificial
Intelligence
Engineering Management Public
Policy
Education Design Humanities
Natural Systems
Cognitive Systems
Service Systems

Dedication: Doug Engelbart
Father of the mouse and
augmentation theory
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development
37

4/9/2016
development
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Assisting individuals and organizations
to close their service innovation skills gap
and co-create smarter service systems
empowering employees, customers, citizens
with cognitive mediators
in the collaborative service economy

4/9/2016
development
40

Jobs at IBM: Some Tips (in 6 slides)
• Go to http://www.ibm.com/jobs (slide 1)
• Type in “environmental” (slide 2)
– press search button (not just return)
• See examples next few pages (slide 3)
• Also:
– Try IBM Career Decoder (slide 4)
– Try LinkedIn (slide 5)
– Try http://www.ibm.com/employments/us (Slide 6)
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© IBM UPWard 2016
41

http://www.ibm.com/jobs
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© IBM UPWard 2016
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Click Search Button!
(Type “Environmental” - for example)
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© IBM UPWard 2016
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Read and Apply – if Qualified
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© IBM UPWard 2016
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Try “IBM Career Decoder”
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© IBM UPWard 2016
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Try “IBM Employment/US”
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© IBM UPWard 2016
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Final Tips
• Data is part of every job – even environmental
engineering!
– Try “Watson Analytics”
– Try “Big Data University” earn badges
• Learn to program – at least a little
– Try “Python” at Big Data U
• Become T-shaped, and tell your story
– Check out http://tsummit.org/t
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© IBM UPWard 2016
47

By 2036, T-Shaped Makers with great
Building Blocks and Cognitive Mediators
4/9/2016 48
Empathy & Teamwork
sector
region/culture
discipline
Depth
Breadth
STEM
Liberal Arts

Try “LinkedIn”
4/9/2016
© IBM UPWard 2016
49

In Summary
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development
50
“A service science
perspective considers
the evolving ecology of
service system entities,
their value co-creation and
capability co-elevation
interactions, and their
capabilities, constraints,
rights, and responsibilities.”
Cognitive Systems
Entities
Service
Systems
Entities With
Cognitive
Mediators
Add Rights &
Responsibilities

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development
51

4/9/2016
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Smart Service System:
All entities’ in network
use cognitive mediators
to enhance
value co-creation interactions
Cognitive Mediators:
Cognitive systems
with deep knowledge of both
customer (user) and provider (expert)
as co-creators of win-win value
Entity augmentation boosts both creativity and productivity of interactions

Sciences provide…
• Frameworks for people to ask and answer
questions systematically
• Explanations with instructions on “how to re-do”
4/9/2016
development
53
Kline: Conceptual Foundation of Multidisciplinary Thinking -
“To our children and children’s children,
to whom we elders owe an explanation of the world
that is understandable, realistic, forward-looking, and whole.”
Proenneke:
Alone in the Wilderness -
To do a thorough testing,
should each generation
be required to rapidly rebuild
from scratch?
A re-makers movement?

T-Shaped “Future Ready” Talent
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© IBM UPWard 2016
54

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© IBM UPWard 2016
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CSIG

Cognitive
• Science
– Cognitive Architecture (Animals, People, Robots)
– Distributed Cognition/Social Cognition (Orgs)
– Augmented Intellect/Cognition (Collaboration)
• Practice
– 4 L’s: Language, Learning, Levels, Limbs
– Levels of Confidence in Recommendations
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© IBM UPWard 2016
56

Watson Platform on BlueMix
4/9/2016
development
57

New Era of Computing:
Cognitive Technologies & Componentry
58
 Natural Language
– Reasoning, Logic & Planning
– Symbolic Processing
– Natural Language Processing
– Ranking of Hypotheses
– Knowledge Representations
– Domain-Specific Ontologies
– Information Storage/Retrieval
– Machine Learning, Reasoning
– Von Neumann Componentry
– OpenPOWER Systems
 Pattern Recognition
– Recognition, Sensing & Acting
– Pattern Processing
– Image & Speech Processing
– Ranking of Hypotheses
– Pattern Representations
– Domain-Specific Neural Nets
– Information Storage/Retrieval
– Machine Learning, Perception
– Neuromorphic Componentry
– TrueNorth & Corelets Systems
AI for IA:
Intelligence
Augmentation
(Engelbart’s Visiion)
(“Cogs”) that boost
creativity and
productivity of people in
smart service systems.
Cognition as a Service
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development
58
IBM Cloud Bluemix

So what does this have to do with
programming and computation?
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Both Turing and von Neumann dreamed of universal machines and constructors

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1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055
2035 one human brain/2055 all human brains

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development
61

What exists in 2016?
4/9/2016
development
62
360,000 100,000 120,000 60,000 150,000

Cognitive Assistants for all occupations
are beginning to appear
4/9/2016
development
63

4/9/2016
development
64
for all occupations

Occupations = Many Tasks
4/9/2016
development
65

Watson Discovery Advisor
4/9/2016
development
66
Simonite, T. 2014. Software Mines Science Papers to Make New Discoveries. MIT. November 25, 2014.
URL: http://m.technologyreview.com/news/520461/software-mines-science-papers-to-make-new-discoveries/

User Models
4/9/2016
development
67

4/9/2016
development
68

IBM TrueNorth Chip
4/9/2016
development
69

© 2011 IBM Corporation
Dharmendra S. Modha, PhD
Senior Manager, Cognitive Computing; Principal Investigator, SyNAPSE
SyNAPSE

The brain is very good at integrating and co-ordinating
multiple sensory inputs and motor outputs…
while occupying a
small volume…
…and consuming
very little power

IBM Research
Computers and the Brain: Different & Complementary
10 Hz, parallel, high fanout,
event-driven
Integrates memory,
computation, communication
10 mW/cm2
~5 GHz, sequential, linear,
clocked
Separates memory,
computation, communication
100 W/cm2

IBM Research
DARPA SyNAPSE End Goal
“develop electronic neuromorphic machine technology that scales to
biological levels”
1014 synapses
neurons firing at 10Hz in 2 liters, 1kW at real-time

IBM Research
75
Summary

IBM Research

IBM Research
IBM Confidential
How It Works:
“neurons”, “synapses”, “axons”, “dendrites”
• Integrates
memory
computation
communication
• Local data
movement
• Event-driven
• Reconfigurable
• Ultra-low power
• Compact

IBM Research
78
Synapses
Neurons
Scheduler
256 neurons, 64K synapses, 1MHz
field-adaptable
Seo et al., 2011
256 neurons, 256k synapses,
asynchronous, 45 pJ/spike
field-programmable
Merolla et al., 2011; Arthur et al., 2012
Demonstrated Two Neurosynaptic Cores

IBM Research
79
TrueNorth Architecture

IBM Research
Von Neumann versus TrueNorth for brain-like computation
Neuron(s) Bus
Neuron Synapse
Communication
Neuron Synapse
Communication
Neuron Synapse
Communication
Neuron Synapse
Communication
Neuron Synapse
Communication
Neuron Synapse
Communication
Neuron Synapse
Communication
Neuron Synapse
Communication
Neuron Synapse
Communication
Memory Wall / Bottleneck
Synapse Synapse Synapse
CPU Memory

IBM Research
SyNAPSE Stack

IBM Research
NeoVision

IBM Research

IBM Research
© Copyright IBM Corporation 2009
IBM Proprietary
Von Neumann:
“Left Brain Computing”
SyNAPSE:
“Right Brain Computing”
Sequential,
Analytical
Text, numbers,
symbolic
Front-end,
back-end
intelligence
Von Neumann
Architecture
High Power and
Area
Simultaneous,
Synthetic
Sense-act, sub-
symbolic
In-situ,
physical
intelligence
Non-von
Neumann
Arch
Low Power and
Area

Spohrer esw 20160408 v4

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