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Moneyball
Evidence-Based Entrepreneurship
&
Investment Readiness Levels

Steve Blank www.steveblank.com
@sgblank

Jim Hornthal
@hornthal
Lean Startup
Business Model
Canvas

Lean Startup
Business Model
Canvas

+

Customer
Development

Lean Startup
Business Model
Canvas

+

Customer
Development

Lean Startup

+

Agile Engineering
Evidence-based Methodology (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)

Business Model
Canvas

+

Customer
Development

Lean Startup

+

Agile Engineering
Hypotheses

Evidence-based Methodology (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)

Business Model
Canvas

+

Customer
Development

Lean Startup

+

Agile Engineering
Hypotheses

Experiments

Evidence-based Methodology (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)

Business Model
Canvas

+

Customer
Development

Lean Startup

+

Agile Engineering
Hypotheses

Experiments

Data

Evidence-based Methodology (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)

Business Model
Canvas

+

Customer
Development

Lean Startup

+

Agile Engineering
Mentors

Hypotheses

Experiments

Data

Evidence-based Methodology (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)

Business Model
Canvas

+

Customer
Development

Lean Startup

+

Agile Engineering
LaunchPad Central Software

Hypotheses

Experiments

Data

Evidence-based Methodology (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)

Business Model
Canvas

+

Customer
Development

Lean Startup

+

Agile Engineering
Weekly Data
Progress
Data
Data

LaunchPad Central Software

Hypotheses

Experiments

Data

Evidence-based Methodology (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)

Business Model
Canvas

+

Customer
Development

Lean Startup

+

Agile Engineering
Weekly Data
Progress
Data
Data

+

Experiment
Scorecard

LaunchPad Central Software

Hypotheses

Experiments

Data

Evidence-based Methodology (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)

Business Model
Canvas

+

Customer
Development

Lean Startup

+

Agile Engineering
Weekly Data
Progress
Data
Data

+

Experiment
Scorecard

=

Data, Experiments,
Trajectory, IRL

LaunchPad Central Software

Hypotheses

Experiments

Data

Evidence-based Methodology (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)

Business Model
Canvas

+

Customer
Development

Lean Startup

+

Agile Engineering
Data on Hypotheses, Pivots,
MVPs, Metrics
Evidence and Trajectory
Cohort
Leaderboard
Customer
Interviews
Hypotheses
to Test
Invalidated
Hypotheses
Weekly Canvas
Updates
Track All
Hypotheses
Testing
Scorecard:
9 way Kanban Board
with data
NASA
NASA/DOD
Technology Readiness Level (TRL)
•
•
•
•

Formal Way to assess project maturity
Quantify Relative Risks
Data Driven
Adopted by NASA, DOD, FAA, ESA…
InvestmentReadiness Level

We can do the same
for new ventures
InvestmentReadiness Level

We can do the same
for new ventures

Emphasis is on data
Technology
Readiness Level

Investment
Readiness Level

Metrics that Matter

Validate
Left side of Canvas
Validate
Right side of Canvas

Product/Market Fit
Problem/Solution
Hypotheses
Remote monitoring device to prevent
severe flares in pediatric asthmatics
Total interviews: 117
Lessons Learned
December 10, 2013
Basil Ayish
Noel Jee
Clare Pak
CharviShetty
Jingwei Zhang
DEV. 2:
Michael Harrison
Michael Danty
Dillon Kwiat
Elisabeth Leeflang
Matt Clark
December 10, 2013

FINAL PRESENTATION

Vision: A new way to create a magnetic
compression anastomosis with improved
outcomes.
Interviews completed: 90
FINAL CANVAS

MAGNAMOSIS, Inc.
37
INVESTMENT READINESS LEVEL

IRL 6

Plausible exit
Cash to 1st inflection point
Unit economics validated

Reimbursement / other revenue
Regulatory path certainty & difficulty
IP freedom to operate & ability to block
Attractive solution & ID of MVP
Compelling clinical need + large market
Effective team?
MAGNAMOSIS, Inc.
38
Total
Interviews: 88

Vantage Realized is building a wheelchair attachment that increases mobility and
reduces joint damage for manual wheelchair users.
Final Canvas

Strong
emphasis on
protective IP

End users don’t rely
on magazines for new
product information.
The wheelchair
manufacturers are
the best way to sell
through DME or
online retailers.

Manufacturing
cost ~$6

Most likely asset sale vs.
licensing
Investment Readiness Level
Vitruvian
Preventing Hernias Before They Happen

December 10, 2013
Mentor: Julie Cherrington
Team:
Cindy Chang, PhD
Hobart W. Harris, MD, MPH
David M. Young, MD

Customer Interviews : 74
Business Model Canvas

???
Therapeutic Investment Readiness Level

Plausible exit
Cash to exit
Unit economics Validated
Reimbursement
Regulatory
Intellectual Property
Attractive solution & ID of MVP
Compelling clinical need + large mkt
Effective team?
Pharma interactions: 25
Chagas KOL interactions: 25
Veterinary interactions: 20
Diagnostic interactions: 5
TOTAL interactions: 75

December 10, 2013
Business Model Canvas
WEEK 10
INVESTOR READINESS
“Proof of Relevance” Path to Revenue Fully Articulated
High Fidelity MVP
Business Case Defined

“Left Side of the Canvas”
Build KOL network
Deeper IP review and strategy
Due diligence on partners
Deeper cost analysis to each data point
Team talent gaps identified
“Right Side of the Canvas”
Product Market Fit
Problem/Solution Validation
Low Fidelity MVP
First Pass Canvas

IRL6
Probiotics for Agriculture

December 10th, 2013
Total interviews: 75
Week 10
Senior customer endorsement

Operational plan validated
Talent recruited
IP strategy and KOL network
“Proof of Relevance” defined
Timeline and cost to data points
Strategic fit in portfolio validated
Technology confirmed

First pass canvas
“God is not on the side of the big arsenals,
but on the side of those who shoot best.”
Voltaire

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Startup Grind 020514

Editor's Notes

  1. In this iteration, we learned that asthmatics were further subdivided into affluent and lower socioeconomic brackets.
  2. In terms of investment readiness, we are fairly certain that we have a strong and capable team. We also believe that there is a compelling clinical need here, and if we are able to expand into the larger respiratory health market including monitoring in polluted areas or capturing adult asthma and COPD segments, we would also have a large enough market to sustain a company.
  3. Our company is Vitruvian and we are developing a product to prevent incisional hernias. Introduce the whole team…
  4. …we discovered that no one really owns this problem, not even some surgeons.