6. Hypotheses Concluded
Key Partners Key Activities Value Prop Customer Customer
• Manufacturing • Product quality
• Aesthetics is chief
above all
Rel. Segment
partners will be • Customer service • Reliability
critical • Marketing/promo • Shoe should not look
• Retention
• High end shoe stores tions “functional”
• Referrals
need to carry the • Reducing 2-shoe
shoes in order for burden is important
high-end customers
• Versatility important
to see and purchase • Women who wear high
them Key Resources • #1 reason women wear heels to work would
• Online partnerships high heels to work is to Channels find our product
• Shoe designer is look professional
(e.g. Zappos) will be appealing
important imperative • The #1 reason women • Online
• Shipping • Funding wear high heels is to • Boutique & Dept
partnerships will be feel sexy/stylish stores not an option
critical • Customers find the
until demand proven
• TV partnerships (e.g. design of the (online & trunk
QVC) will be telescoping heel shows)
important aesthetically pleasing
Cost structure Revenue streams
• Customers purchase 3-4 pairs every year for going out
• Encourage repeat revenue by offering different styles for
different seasons
Total Validated Hypotheses: 22 Total Invalidated Hypotheses: 3
7. 3 Most Surprising Lessons
• Value Prop.: Aesthetics is chief above all
• Key Resources: Shoe designer is imperative
• Channels: Boutique & Dept stores not an
option until demand proven (online & trunk
shows)
9. Hypotheses Concluded
Key Partners Key Activities Value Prop Customer Customer
• Fit w/counselor is most
• Developing match imp. attribute Rel. Segment
algorithm requires • Organizing group • Online acquisition
collaboration w/ therapy is a pain point • Only small segment of
model works for
psychologists for therapists people looking to be
therapy
matched with (paid)
• Insurance won’t pay for • Credentials / credibility
group counselors
therapy unassociated is an important attribute
• Adults experiencing a
w/ diagnosed condition • People don’t see need for timely and relevant
• Corporations unwilling “preventative” counseling trauma
to sponsor therapy Key • Urgency is a key Channels • Teenagers who don’t want
programs not covered
by insurance Resources requirement for seeking
a counselor
to talk to their parents or
friends about issues
• Price is a key • Couples going through
• Heavy marketing & PR • People strongly prefer
impediment to seeking a relationship issues
required to change to meet counselors in-
counselor • Adults who are isolated
perception person
• Anonymity is a and have shared
prerequisite for seeing a experience
counselor
Costs structure Revenue streams
• Customer Acquisition cost via Google Adwords campaign • Adverse selection problem when charging counselors monthly vs.
per-acquisition
• 1:1 in-person therapy match is a transactional business model
• Better control of revenue stream w/ group
Total Validated Hypotheses: 15 Total Invalidated Hypotheses: 6
10. 3 Most Surprising Lessons
• Value Prop.: Fit is the top priority when finding
a therapist, more than cost, creditability or
urgency.
• Revenue Streams: Adverse selection problem
when charging counselors monthly vs. per-
acquisition
• Key Partners: Insurance will not pay for
therapy for an undiagnosed condition
11. Mystery Mingle
Overview and Additional
Highlights
Mystery Mingle is a system which coordinates small to medium gatherings,
automates ice-breakers and aids in reservations or food ordering.
14. Key Metrics
Consumer sees ad 4 % delivery
3 Usage rate (% sign-up who plan)
(5% revenue
Facebook Plan Event
Mystery
Mingle Analyze
1 CPC friends’ profile Select prix- Order food
Site fixe menu for delivery
Google Guest list
suggestions 5
% prix fixe
2 Conversion Calendar
(15% revenue)
rate (sign-up) check: suggest
date/time Guests Guests
Customer signs-up pre-pay chips in
Select game
theme
Links to Facebook &
Google+ Organizer or friend hosts next event
% Participants
6 % Returning 7
turned organizers
15. Google Adwords CTR-Keywords
Mingle
208 clicks in 7 days dating service
Avg. Cost per click online dating site
online dating services
display networks= $0.16
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Google Search=$1.54
CTR-Display Networks
grated.com
asiandating.com
faxo.com
metric-conversions.org
match.com
caribbeancupid.com
india-forums.com
answers.com
beautypageantnews.com
latinamericancupid.com
tinybytes.me
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
16. Business model leverages network effects
Number of organizers Network effects
800,000 P Participant
700,000
P
P P O Organizer
600,000
500,000
P O P
400,000
300,000 P P
200,000 P
100,000 P P
0
Year Year Year Year Year P O P
1 2 3 4 5
P P
17. Gross Margin
Profitability analysis Year 1 Year 5
2 Conversion rate (percent who sign-up) 10% 15%
3 Usage rate (percent who organize a mingle) 10% 18%
Total organizers 13,200 704,332
6 % Returning 50%
7 % Participants turned Organizers 10%
Delivery revenue
4 Percent of mingles ordering delivery thru site 15% 15%
Total delivery revenue $3,168 $422,599
Group in-restaurant revenue
5 Percent of mingles hosting prix-fixe event in restaurant 10% 10%
Total in-restaurant revenue $21,120 $3,380,795
Yearly ad revenue $28,512 $376,693
Total yearly revenue $52,800 $4,180,087
Average revenue/organizer $4 $6
Costs
1 CPC $0.12 $0.04
Average cost to accquire $12 $1
Gross Margin $(105,600) $3,652,087
19. Hypotheses Concluded
Key Partners Key Activities Value Prop Customer Customer
• Alleviates logistical
• Sell ads complexity of organizing Rel. Segment
• Build & maintain site events for friends • Create community of
• Recruit partners • Facilitates arranging • Organizers: Single
advocates through a
creative activities for a women
Facebook page
group • Organizers: Young wives
• Loyalty rewards
with active social lives, no
• Restaurants that deliver • Facilitates organizing • Referral incentives
kids
• Restaurant delivery groups of friends along
• Organizers: Single men
sites similar interests or stages
• Participants: Single
• Restaurants that host Key in life Channels people
large groups • People want to
Resources participate in a mystery
• Participants: Young
married couples with no
• Tech event organized by their
• Dedicated website kids
• Sales force: customer friend
• Customer acquisition • People wanting to
and partner acquisition • Facilitates collection of through Facebook & indirectly set up single
• PR funds Google ads friends
• Customer service agents
• Reduces social
awkwardness of getting
to know new people
Costs Revenue streams
structure
•Share of revenue from food ordered for delivery through the site
• Customer Acquisition Cost •Share of revenue for group prix-fixe pre-pay menu
• Build/maintain site •Ad revenue
• Overhead
•Booking fee from organizers
Total Validated Hypotheses: 23 Total Invalidated Hypotheses: 2
Total Untested: 5
20. Lessons from class
• Team dynamics can make or break a start-up
▫ Lot easier to work on something you are
passionate about
• Important to move beyond the right side of
the canvas
• Need to separate emotion from reason
▫ Recognize time to pivot
24. Metrics that matter
Key Metric Why it matters
1 Average CPC Determines acquisition cost
Conversion rate (visitors who Impacts customer
2
sign-up) acquisition cost
3 Usage rate (sign-ups who organize Impacts customer
a mingle) acquisition cost
4 % Mingles ordering delivery Key revenue stream
5 % Mingles organizing prix-fixe Key revenue stream
% Returning (% organizers who Impacts lifetime value
6 return subsequent year)
% Participants turned Acquisition cost virtually
7 Organizers zero; so lowers average
acquisition cost
25. Average acquisition cost declining due
to network effects
Acquisition cost per organizer
$14
$12
$10
$8
$6
$4
$2
$0
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
26. Gross Margin Analysis Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Population of US 300,000,000 300,000,000 300,000,000 300,000,000 300,000,000
Percent of US unmarried 44% 44% 44% 44% 44%
Percent of target population who clicks 1% 2% 6% 8% 10%
Conversion rate (percent who sign-up) 10% 10% 12% 14% 15%
Usage rate (percent who organize a mingle) 10% 12% 15% 16% 18%
New Organizers 13,200 31,680 142,560 236,544 356,400
Participants 105600 253,440 1,140,480 1,892,352 2,851,200
Participants turned Organizers 10,560 25,344 114,048 189,235
Existing Organizers 0 6,600 19,140 80,850 158,697
Total organizers 13,200 48,840 187,044 431,442 704,332
% Returning 50% 50% 50% 50%
% Participants turned Organizers 10% 10% 10% 10%
Number of participants per mingle 8 8 8 8 8
Number of mingles organized per year 2 2 2 2 2
Mingle revenue
Percent of mingles paying fee 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
$
Charge per mingle organized through site $ 4.99 $ 4.99 $ 4.99 $ 4.99 4.99
Total mingle revenue $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -
Delivery revenue
Percent of mingles ordering delivery thru site 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%
$
Average order amount per person $ 5 $ 5 $ 5 $ 5 5
Commission on order 2% 3% 4% 5% 5%
$
Total delivery revenue $ 3,168 $ 17,582 $ 89,781 $ 258,865 422,599
27. Group in-restaurant revenue
Percent of mingles hosting event in-restaurant
through site 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
Average order amount per person $ 20 $ 20 $ 20 $ 20 $ 20
Commission on order 5% 10% 15% 15% 15%
Total in-restaurant revenue $ 21,120 $ 156,288 $ 897,811 $ 2,070,922 $ 3,380,795
Ad Revenue
Number of visits/yr 1,425,600 3,030,720 9,416,352 14,011,536 18,834,658
Ad revenue CPM $4 $4 $4 $4 $4
Number of ads site 5 5 5 5 5
Yearly ad revenue $ 28,512 $ 60,614 $ 188,327 $ 280,231 $ 376,693
Total yearly revenue $ 52,800 $ 234,485 $ 1,175,919 $ 2,610,018 $ 4,180,087
Average revenue/organizer $ 4.0 $ 4.8 $ 6.3 $ 6.0 $ 5.9
Costs
CPC $ 0.12 $ 0.10 $ 0.08 $ 0.06 $ 0.04
Average cost to accquire $ 12 $ 5 $ 3 $ 1 $ 1
Total Ad expense $ 158,400 $ 264,000 $ 633,600 $ 633,600 $ 528,000
Gross Margin $ (105,600) $ (29,515) $ 542,319 $ 1,976,418 $ 3,652,087
28. What would it take to be a $10M/Yr
revenue business
• 20% usage rate
• 10 people per mingle
• Each organizer conducting 3 mingles/year
• 55% organizers return YoY
• 20% participants turned organizers
29. Google Adwords
Lillian-can you make
this pretty
208 clicks in 7 days
Avg. CPC = $0.22
Editor's Notes
We’ve gone through this journey and the best way to show it through the video. Update: Change the glassesRestart was a high pointRedo the vertical heights
Want to remind you that have insights on all areas of the canvas, but we explore this other pivots
With the pivots, customer still preferred the shoeAs a way to address high heel pain
Hight 3-5 key hypothesis
Find words for confirmed
Hight 3-5 key hypothesis
Mystery Mingle is a system with coordinates small to medium gatherings, automates ice-breakers and aids in reservations or food ordering. Change outing to events
Change the gains here
Succinctly illustrate the percent returning and participants turned organizers
5 year high-level profitability analysis
Add more pictures
Addlearnings that are germane to the class content
Add in more keywords-take from the Google adwords siteMaybe histogram