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Democracy Corps/Campaign for America's Future Election 2010 Poll

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A Democracy Corps/Campaign for America's Future poll highlights the messages voters sought to convey on Tuesday. It not only shows that voter fears about the economy drove this election, but it also ...

A Democracy Corps/Campaign for America's Future poll highlights the messages voters sought to convey on Tuesday. It not only shows that voter fears about the economy drove this election, but it also shows that conservatives do not have a mandate from voters for their proposals for deep cuts in spending combined with tax cuts for the rich. There is deep anger at the failure of government to make it work for middle class families, even as Wall Street got bailed out.

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Democracy Corps/Campaign for America's Future Election 2010 Poll Presentation Transcript

  • 1. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 November 2-3, 2010 Post-mortem survey: the historic 2010 election Campaign for America’s Future Democracy Corps
  • 2. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Methodology and Overview The results of the following survey are displayed throughout this presentation: • Joint Democracy Corps and Campaign for America’s Future national post- election survey of 1,000 2008 voters, of which 897 2010 voters were included. Calls were conducted on Election Day 2010 and the Wednesday following (November 2-3). • Time series data is from last decade of Democracy Corps surveys unless otherwise noted. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and Campaign for America’s Future have collaborated on post-election polls since 1996, and with Democracy Corps starting in 2000.
  • 3. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 The congressional vote Page 3 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
  • 4. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 The congressional vote If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE) or (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE)? Dem ocratic Candidate Republican Candidate October 2010 50 53 46 47 46 48 48 49 50 4947 50 44 45 45 45 45 45 43 44 43 43 42 43 43 41 42 40 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Net -1 +1 -3 -2 -3 -6 -7 -7 -10 -6 -2 -5 -5 -7 -8 Difference *Note: In the landline sample, the candidate names were inserted preceded by party identification. In the cell sample, both candidates were given as generic.
  • 5. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Congressional vote Now, let me ask you about the election for Congress. Did you vote for the Democratic House Candidate or the Republican House Candidate? Democrats Independents Swing voters Republicans +76 +18 +8 +91 95 88 56 50 42 38 12 Democratic Republican Democratic Republican Democratic Republican Democratic Republican Candidate Candidate Candidate Candidate Candidate Candidate Candidate Candidate
  • 6. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Breakdown of early decisions When did you finally decide to vote for (Your Candidate): on Election Day, in the last few days before the election, the week before the election, a month before the election, sometime in September, during the summer or before that? 13 11 11 10 10 8 During the Summer Sometime in Month Before Week Before Last Few Days Election Day September Early Deciders Late Deciders
  • 7. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Congressional vote based on when one decided to vote Now, let me ask you about the election for Congress. Did you vote for the Democratic House Candidate or the Republican House Candidate? +15 +11 +4 57 55 50 44 46 42 Democratic Republican Democratic Republican Democratic Republican Candidate Candidate Candidate Candidate Candidate Candidate More than a month A month before The last week
  • 8. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Considered voting for other candidate Think back in time for a minute. Did you, at any point in this campaign, think about voting for (DEMOCRATIC/REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE) for Congress? How seriously did you think about voting for (DEMOCRATIC/REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE) -- very seriously, somewhat seriously, or only a little seriously? 77 77 35 34 27 11 9 9 7 Solid Wavering Dem Considered Total Swing Considered Wavering Rep Solid Democratic Dem Rep Republican Vote vote Note: Question asked of respondents who voted for the opposing candidate. Data reflects consideration of other candidate by those who supported opposing candidate. This data does not include “other,” refused, or third party voters.
  • 9. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Key groups Demographic group 1994 2004 2006 2008 2010 Share of Dem Share of Dem Share of Dem Share of Dem Share of Dem voters Vote voters Vote voters Vote voters Vote voters Vote Independents 27 41 26 49 26 57 28 51 28 38 RAE 47 67 40 60 White men 50 36 36 38 39 44 36 43 37 35 White women 50 46 41 44 40 49 39 46 41 40 Younger voters (<30) 13 48 17 54 12 60 18 63 11 56 White seniors 13 44 13 42 19 37 White non-college 40 44 39 44 39 34 White non-college men 17 43 18 41 18 29 Union household 14 58 24 59 20 64 21 64 17 60 White union household 15 58 15 57 12 52 Hispanic 3 59 6 58 8 69 8 68 8 64 African American 9 91 11 88 10 89 13 93 10 90 White Catholic 31 44 20 50 18 46 19 39 Unmarried women 22 62 18 65 20 69 22 61 White unmarried women 15 52 16 55 18 56 15 47 White non-South rural 13 44 13 41 12 39 Suburban 45 47 16 50 16 52 17 42 Midwest 26 48 27 52 25 53 25 44
  • 10. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Party Images before and after elections Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with 100 meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, Democratic Party UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly warm or cold. Republican Party 2004 2006 2008 2010 Election Election Election Election 54 53 53 52 53 49 50 51 47 47 46 44 46 44 44 44 43 Sep-04 May-05 Jan-06 Sep-06 May-07 Jan-08 Sep-08 May-09 Jan-10 Sep-10 Net -1 +1 +6 +3 +7 +7 0 -1 Difference *Note: Data represents the MEAN ratings from Democracy Corps surveys conducted over the past four years. A mean > 50 shows overall positive rating; mean < 50 shows an overall negative rating.
  • 11. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Thermometers: Republicans in 2006, 2008, 2010 Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. % warm (51-100 degrees) % very warm (76-100 degrees) %cool (0-49 degrees) % very cool (0-25 degrees) 39 37 37 19 19 16 38 31 38 48 45 41 November, 2006 November, 2008 November, 2010
  • 12. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Comparisons to 1994 Page 12 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
  • 13. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Thermometers: Obama, Clinton Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with 100 Barack Obam a meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly warm or cold. Bill Clinton Early October Early-Mid Early- Mid-October Mid- Late October Election day October 50 49 49 49 48 47 46 48 45 47 *Note: From Democracy Corps tracker surveys conducted in October and November. Data represents MEAN ratings, likely 1994 and 2010 voters.
  • 14. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 President’s Job Performance: 2010 vs. 1994 Do you approve or disapprove of the way [Bill Clinton] [Barack Obama] is handling his job as president? Clinton Approve Clinton Disapprove Obama Approve Obama Disapprove June May September 1994/2010 January 1994/2010 1994/2010 November 1994/2010 1994/2010 70 65 64 67 64 65 61 58 56 59 53 54 51 52 52 51 48 48 49 48 49 51 48 43 45 46 46 46 45 42 46 47 43 45 39 39 41 42 35 29 35 35 34 32 *Note: 1994 data uses an “excellent, good, fair, poor” scale while 2010 data uses approve/disapprove| scale. Page 14 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
  • 15. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Thermometers: 1994/2010 Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. % warm %cool Therm. Warm - Mean Cool Big Business 1994 38 31 51 -5 Big Corporations 2010 31 36 46 -7 Labor Unions 1994 44 32 45 -15 Labor Unions 2010 45 30 44 -12 Democratic Party 1994 47 37 52 6 Democratic Party 2010 33 39 43 -10 Republican Party 1994 39 43 53 14 Republican Party 2010 36 43 49 3
  • 16. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Hopes about Clinton and Obama after first mid-term Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SEOCND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. First statement: I’m still hopeful that Clinton Second statement: I’ve given up on Clinton./ can succeed. /I’m still hopeful about Obama. I’ve given up on Obama. First statement strongly Second statement strongly +38 +16 68 56 40 30 Hopeful Given up Hopeful Given up Clinton 1994 Obama 2010
  • 17. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Hopeful about Obama Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SEOCND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. First statement: I’m still hopeful about Obama. Second statement: I’ve given up on Obama. First statement strongly Second statement strongly +16 +80 +13 +19 +52 +45 89 74 80 69 56 54 58 67 40 41 39 45 48 40 41 24 35 36 22 28 9 23 10 Hopeful Given up Hopeful Given up Hopeful Given up Hopeful Given up Hopeful Given up Hopeful Given up Total Democrats Independents Swing voters Republicans Drop-off voters
  • 18. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 What drove the vote? Page 18 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
  • 19. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 It’s the economy stupid Do you think of your vote for Congress as a vote to continue Obama’s economic course, as a vote against our economic course, or was the economy not much of a factor in your vote? Continue Obama's course Continue Obama's course Continue Obama's course Against our economic course Against our economic course Against our economic course Not a factor in vote Not a factor in vote Not a factor in vote 12 17 25 22 22 55 10 45 64 Democrats Swing voters Republicans
  • 20. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Voters sending a message Thinking about your vote for a minute, were you trying to send a message about how dissatisfied you are with things in Washington or weren’t you trying to send a message? 76 63 58 59 56 39 40 35 37 23 Sending a No Sending a No Sending a No Sending a No Sending a No message message message message message message message message message message Total Democrats Independents Swing voters Republicans
  • 21. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Voters sending a message: 1994 and 2010 Thinking about your vote for a minute, were you trying to send a message about how dissatisfied you are with things in Washington or weren’t you trying to send a message? 63 58 39 29 Sending a message No message Sending a message No message 1994 2010
  • 22. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Anger at spending/taxes, elites and party politics – equal measure Which TWO of the following were you most upset about on what was happening with elected officials in Washington? Too much spending, taxes, deficits 35 Spending/ liberal: 59 Too liberal 24 For rich and Wall Street, not regular people 17 Elites/not With lobbyists and corrupt 15 people: 51 Forgot people and out of touch 19 Too much political party bickering 39 Party Politics: 52 Too much extreme conservatism 13 0 25 50
  • 23. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Anger at spending/taxes, elites and party politics – swing voters Which TWO of the following were you most upset about on what was happening with elected officials in Washington? Too much spending, taxes, deficits 38 Spending/ liberal: 58 Too liberal 20 For rich and Wall Street, not regular people 16 Elites/not With lobbyists and corrupt 20 people: 57 Forgot people and out of touch 21 Too much political party bickering 50 Party Too much extreme conservatism 10 Politics: 60 0 25 50
  • 24. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Top reasons to vote against Democratic candidate Let me read you a list of doubts about the Democratic House Candidate. Regardless of how you voted, which THREE describe the most important issues and best reasons NOT to vote for the Democratic House candidate in the election? Health care takeover and Medicare cuts 38 Health care: 38 Too much spending 28 and big government Spending/taxes: 49 Higher taxes 21 Supported Obama 28 Obama/Pelosi: 54 Supported Pelosi 26 Failed to get the economy going 20 or create jobs Economy: 33 Hurts small business 13 Position on illegal immigration 18 Immigration: 18 Bailouts of Wall Street 16 and auto companies Bailouts/special With special interests and lobbyists, interests: 28 and didn’t listen to the people 12 Cap and Trade 17 Cap and Trade: 17 0 25 50
  • 25. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Top reasons to vote against Democratic candidate: swing voters Let me read you a list of doubts about the Democratic House Candidate. Regardless of how you voted, which THREE describe the most important issues and best reasons NOT to vote for the Democratic House candidate in the election? Health care takeover and Medicare cuts 35 Health care: 35 Too much spending 28 and big government Spending/taxes: 43 Higher taxes 15 Supported Obama 24 Obama/Pelosi: 41 Supported Pelosi 17 Failed to get the economy going 26 or create jobs Economy: 343 Hurts small business 17 Position on illegal immigration 16 Immigration: 16 Bailouts of Wall Street 23 and auto companies Bailouts/special With special interests and lobbyists, interests: 39 and didn’t listen to the people 16 Cap and Trade 11 Cap and Trade: 11 0 25 50
  • 26. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Top reasons to not vote for the Republican candidate Let me read you a list of doubts about the Republican House candidate. Regardless of how you voted, which THREE describe the most important issues and best reasons NOT to vote for the Republican House candidate in the election? Supports cutting or privatizing Social Security/ Social Security 26 Medicare: 42 Ending Medicare with voucher 16 program Tax breaks for outsourcing 26 American jobs Against minimum wage and extended 19 Outsourcing/ unemployment benefits minimum wage/big With the big banks 14 banks/big oil: 71 With big oil companies and BP 12 Backs extreme restrictions on 24 Abortion: 24 women’s access to abortion Supports repealing new health 27 care reform law Health care repeal Backs the Tea Party agenda 17 /Tea Party: 44 Wants more tax cuts for wealthiest 27 Wealthy tax cuts/ With corporate lobbyists, not regular lobbyists: 42 15 people 0 25 50
  • 27. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Top reasons to not vote for the Republican candidate: swing voters Let me read you a list of doubts about the Republican House candidate. Regardless of how you voted, which THREE describe the most important issues and best reasons NOT to vote for the Republican House candidate in the election? Supports cutting or privatizing 26 Social Security/ Social Security Medicare: 41 Ending Medicare with voucher 15 program Tax breaks for outsourcing 33 American jobs Against minimum wage and extended 11 Outsourcing/ unemployment benefits minimum wage/big With the big banks 20 banks/big oil: 75 With big oil companies and BP 11 Backs extreme restrictions on 20 Abortion: 20 women’s access to abortion Supports repealing new health 24 care reform law Health care repeal Backs the Tea Party agenda 12 /Tea Party: 36 Wants more tax cuts for wealthiest 23 Wealthy tax cuts/ With corporate lobbyists, not regular lobbyists: 34 11 people 0 25 50
  • 28. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 2010 campaign messages Page 28 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
  • 29. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Democratic campaign messages in the 2010 election Let me describe some themes that were raised by candidates in this election. Regardless of how you voted, does each statement make you much more likely to support this candidate, somewhat more likely, a little more likely, or less likely to support this candidate. Much more likely (MADE IN AMERICA) We are committed to "made in America," working to support small businesses, American companies and new American industries. Republicans have pledged to support free trade deals and protect tax breaks for companies that send American jobs to India and China. We need a 33 58 different approach: helping small businesses expand and hire new workers and cutting taxes for companies that create jobs right here in America. (CHANGE MIDDLE CLASS) We have to change Washington for the middle class. That means eliminating the special deals and tax breaks won by corporate lobbyists for Wall Street, paid for by American taxpayers and 34 55 workers' outsourced jobs. Republicans have pledged to protect those breaks. We should cut taxes for the middle class and small business to create jobs. Let's make our country work for the middle class again. (DON’T GO BACK) Republicans hope you forget. It was their policies that hurt middle class incomes, lost 8 million jobs and put us in the hole. They obstructed every effort to help get us out. The Recovery Act has 18 31 started to bring the economy back and we've curbed Wall Street abuse. And now they want to go back to same policies that caused the mess in the first place. America has to move forward. 0 25 50 75
  • 30. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Messages voters agree with most: made in America Let me describe some themes that were raised by candidates in this election. Regardless of how you voted, does each statement make you much more likely to support this candidate, somewhat more likely, a little more likely, or less likely to support this candidate. Made in America Much more likely We are committed to "made in America," working to support small businesses, American companies and 65 new American industries. Republicans 58 59 58 56 have pledged to support free trade deals and protect tax breaks for companies that send American jobs to India and China. We need a different 42 approach: helping small businesses 35 36 32 expand and hire new workers and 29 cutting taxes for companies that create jobs right here in America. Independents Swing voters White seniors White non- White non- college college men
  • 31. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Messages voters agree with most: change middle class Let me describe some themes that were raised by candidates in this election. Regardless of how you voted, does each statement make you much more likely to support this candidate, somewhat more likely, a little more likely, or less likely to support this candidate. Change middle class Much more likely We have to change Washington for the middle class. That means eliminating the special deals and tax breaks won by corporate lobbyists for Wall Street, 59 59 54 56 paid for by American taxpayers and 50 workers' outsourced jobs. Republicans have pledged to protect those breaks. We should cut taxes for the middle 38 34 35 class and small business to create 31 28 jobs. Let's make our country work for the middle class again. Independents Swing voters White seniors White non- White non- college college men
  • 32. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Messages voters agree with most: don’t go back Let me describe some themes that were raised by candidates in this election. Regardless of how you voted, does each statement make you much more likely to support this candidate, somewhat more likely, a little more likely, or less likely to support this candidate. Don’t go back Much more likely Republicans hope you forget. It was their policies that hurt middle class incomes, lost 8 million jobs and put us in the hole. They obstructed every effort to help get us out. The Recovery Act has started to bring the economy back and we've curbed Wall Street abuse. And now they want to go back 30 28 28 24 24 to same policies that caused the mess in the first place. America has to move forward. 19 13 15 14 13 Independents Swing voters White seniors White non- White non- college college men
  • 33. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Ideological thinking and shifts Page 33 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
  • 34. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Ideology of the electorate Thinking in political terms, would you say that you are a Conservative, Moderate, or Liberal? Liberal Conservative Moderate 21 20 15 37 34 39 40 39 47 2006 2008 2010 *Note: Numbers from past waves come from two Democracy Corps surveys conducted 11/5/08 of 2000 voters, and 11/7/06 of 1011 voters.
  • 35. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Conservative vote in congressional elections Now let me ask you about the election for Congress held yesterday. Did you vote for (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE) or (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE)? +38 +44 +62 80 71 68 30 27 18 Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Democrat Republican 2006 2008 2010 *Note: Numbers from past waves come from two Democracy Corps surveys conducted 11/5/08 of 2000 voters, and 11/7/06 of 1011 voters.
  • 36. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Investment versus reduce spending: now vs. 2008 Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SEOCND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. First statement: I’m worried that we will fail to make Second statement: I’m more worried that we will go the investments we need to create jobs and too far in increasing government spending and will strengthen the economy. end up raising taxes to pay for it. First statement strongly Second statement strongly +1 +3 49 48 47 50 40 42 31 35 Fail to make investments Too far in spending Fail to make investments Too far in spending 2008 2010
  • 37. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Investment versus reduce spending Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SEOCND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. First statement: I’m worried that we will fail to make Second statement: I’m more worried that we will go the investments we need to create jobs and too far in increasing government spending and will strengthen the economy. end up raising taxes to pay for it. First statement strongly Second statement strongly +3 +29 +12 +10 +28 +4 62 63 54 54 47 50 42 44 56 45 41 33 35 42 44 43 42 35 34 33 29 31 31 27 Investment Spending Investment Spending Investment Spending Investment Spending Investment Spending Investment Spending Total Democrats Independents Swing voters Republicans Drop-off voters
  • 38. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Now a mixed view on government regulation Now I’m going to read you some statements. Please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own views, even if neither is exactly right: Government regulation of businesses and corporations is necessary to protect the public. Government regulation of businesses and corporations frequently does more harm than good. Election Election Election Election 2008 2010 2002 2004 61 60 58 57 54 56 51 52 55 48 37 4545 45 38 37 32 34 3333 Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 Net +17+29+18+24+27 +6 +7 +18 -3 Difference
  • 39. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Opposition to homosexuality drops sharply Now I’m going to read you some statements. Please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own views, even if neither is exactly right: Homosexuality is a way of life that should be accepted by society. Homosexuality is a way of life that should be discouraged by society. Election Election Election Election 2004 2006 2008 2010 52 54 56 51 50 49 49 48 48 45 4445 46 41 42 41 38 33 Sep- Mar- Sep- Mar- Sep- Mar- Sep- Mar- Sep- Mar- Sep- Mar- Sep- Mar- Sep- 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 Net +4 -5 +3 +7 +9 +11 +4 +16 +23 Difference
  • 40. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Homosexuality Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SEOCND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. First statement: Homosexuality is a way of life that Second statement: Homosexuality is a way of life should be accepted by society. that should be discouraged by society. First statement strongly Second statement strongly +23 +39 +31 +27 +11 +22 66 56 57 58 55 57 44 33 47 35 44 44 31 38 27 26 41 37 26 26 29 23 20 23 Accept Discourage Accept Discourage Accept Discourage Accept Discourage Accept Discourage Accept Discourage Total Democrats Independents Swing voters Republicans Drop-off voters
  • 41. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Support for reduced troops similar: Iraq and now Afghanistan Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements. After I read the pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. We need to start reducing the number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan/Iraq. We must stay the course to achieve stability and finish the job in Afghanistan/Iraq 62 5757 58 56 54 Iraq Afghanistan 42 41 41 39 40 37 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Net +15+18+25 +15 +17 +24 Difference *Note: Data from Democracy Corps surveys conducted over the last several months. Page 41 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Asked about Iraq in 2008; about Afghanistan in 2010
  • 42. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Afghanistan Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SEOCND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. First statement: We need to start reducing the Second statement: We must stay the course to number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan. achieve stability and finish the job in Afghanistan. First statement strongly Second statement strongly +14 +53 +11 +20 +26 73 56 59 54 65 54 40 43 36 33 45 42 43 40 20 31 28 27 21 14 Reduce Finish the Reduce Finish the Reduce Finish the Reduce Finish the Reduce Finish the troops job troops job troops job troops job troops job Total Democrats Independents Swing voters Republicans
  • 43. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Support for multilateralism drops sharply in conservative electorate Now I’m going to read you some statements. Please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own views, even if neither is exactly right: America’s security depends on building strong ties with other nations. Bottom line, America’s security depends on its own military strength. Petraeus Report Election 2002 Election 2004 2006 Election 2006 Election 2008 Election 2010 58 59 60 57 57 55 55 55 55 51 5050 5052 53 51 53 53 52 48 49 49 50 44 45 42 43 43 43 41 42 42 4242 40 41 39 41 40 39 39 38 39 38 37 37 37 35 34 35 Mar- Sep- Mar- Sep- Mar- Sep- Mar- Sep- Mar- Sep- Mar- Sep- Mar- Sep- Mar- Sep- Mar- Sep- 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 Net +3 +2 +11+10 +7 +8 +11 +14+11+14 +15 +16 +10+24+20 +18+21+25 +20 +20 +9 -8 Difference
  • 44. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 The current moment facing the country Page 44 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
  • 45. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 The state of the country, and the outlook for the future Now I’m going to read you some statements about the state of the country today and what the new Congress and the president really face. Regardless of how you voted or whether you voted, please tell me whether you agree or disagree with each one. Agree Strongly (COUNTRY IN DECLINE) America has been falling behind, while countries like China have a vision to succeed. We need our own vision for American success. Our economic problems have been building for years -- with good jobs outsourced and wages and benefits falling behind rising costs. Schools, 65 89 sewers, and roads are in disrepair. We need a clear strategy to make things in America, make our economy competitive, and revive America's middle class. (SPECIAL INTERESTS) To solve the big problems facing our country we need to overcome the entrenched special interests that finance both parties' campaigns. That means limiting the power of lobbyists and big 59 87 campaign donations with full disclosure of who's paying. We need leaders who are prepared to lay out an independent path and challenge those interests standing in the way of change. (POST-PARTISAN) Politicians from both parties go to Washington and pursue their own party's agenda - ignoring the needs of regular citizens and the country. They fight the same old battles and the problems facing 63 87 the country don't get fixed. The country needs leaders who will work together across party lines on the economy and jobs, deficits, health care and energy and do the right thing. 0 25 50 75 100
  • 46. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 The state of the country, and the outlook for the future (continued) Now I’m going to read you some statements about the state of the country today and what the new Congress and the president really face. Regardless of how you voted or whether you voted, please tell me whether you agree or disagree with each one. Agree Strongly (WALL STREET NOT MAIN STREET) Middle class families and small businesses played by the rules, while the big banks, CEOs and Wall Street drove a speculative frenzy that eventually sank the economy. Yet Wall Street got bailed out, while Main Street is still looking for work and 59 84 their houses are under water. That needs to change. We needs to put the middle class first, not just those who call the shots at the top. (MIDDLE CLASS IN DECLINE) America's prosperity was built on a growing middle class. But the middle class has been sinking for years while CEOs take obscene bonuses and the very wealthiest capture almost all the gains of our economy. They now dominate Washington. To get America 54 80 back, we need a government that works for middle class Americans -- fostering good jobs and education to compete in the economy of the future. (GOVERNMENT SPENDING/DEBT) Politicians have spent the country into bankruptcy, with federal deficits going through the ceiling. This debt held by China weakens the country and the economy. Priority number one is to reduce the size of government and the deficit. We have to 51 75 balance the budget by making major cuts in big spending programs now, not later. That will free up our citizens and bring America back. 0 25 50 75 100
  • 47. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Messages voters agree with most: country in decline Now I’m going to read you some statements about the state of the country today and what the new Congress and the president really face. Regardless of how you voted or whether you voted, please tell me whether you agree or disagree with each one. Country in decline Strongly favor 94 90 90 89 90 America has been falling behind, while countries like China have a vision to succeed. We need our own vision for American success. Our economic 69 71 71 problems have been building for years 64 67 -- with good jobs outsourced and wages and benefits falling behind rising costs. Schools, sewers, and roads are in disrepair. We need a clear strategy to make things in America, make our economy competitive, and revive America's middle class. Independents Swing voters White seniors White non- White non- college college men
  • 48. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Messages voters agree with most: special interests Now I’m going to read you some statements about the state of the country today and what the new Congress and the president really face. Regardless of how you voted or whether you voted, please tell me whether you agree or disagree with each one. Special interests Strongly favor 89 89 84 83 83 To solve the big problems facing our country we need to overcome the entrenched special interests that finance both parties' campaigns. That 69 70 means limiting the power of lobbyists 60 and big campaign donations with full 52 51 disclosure of who's paying. We need leaders who are prepared to lay out an independent path and challenge those interests standing in the way of change. Independents Swing voters White seniors White non- White non- college college men
  • 49. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Messages voters agree with most: post partisan Now I’m going to read you some statements about the state of the country today and what the new Congress and the president really face. Regardless of how you voted or whether you voted, please tell me whether you agree or disagree with each one. Post partisan Strongly favor 94 92 90 90 83 Politicians from both parties go to Washington and pursue their own party's agenda - ignoring the needs of 72 regular citizens and the country. They 64 64 67 65 fight the same old battles and the problems facing the country don't get fixed. The country needs leaders who will work together across party lines on the economy and jobs, deficits, health care and energy and do the right thing. Independents Swing voters White seniors White non- White non- college college men
  • 50. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Disappearing middle class Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SEOCND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. First statement: America is no longer a country with Second statement: America is still a country with a a rising middle class. rising middle class. First statement strongly Second statement strongly +21 +36 +31 +27 +7 +29 59 62 61 59 57 51 44 36 47 33 50 34 44 46 31 44 30 39 25 19 19 11 14 11 Not rising Rising Not rising Rising Not rising Rising Not rising Rising Not rising Rising Not rising Rising Total Democrats Independents Swing voters Republicans Drop-off voters
  • 51. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Policy debates and priorities Page 51 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
  • 52. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Ways to deal with deficit – don’t touch Social Security Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SEOCND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. First statement: The federal deficit is a big national Second statement: The federal deficit is such a problem but politicians should keep their hands off threat to our country that we have to cut spending Social Security and Medicare. The American people broadly, including raising the Social Security age to cannot afford cuts in these programs. 70. First statement strongly Second statement strongly +41 +70 +20 +38 +26 +60 83 77 68 66 62 72 56 55 52 55 36 47 36 27 42 28 13 28 17 22 21 18 4 Don't cut Cut Don't cut Cut Don't cut Cut Don't cut Cut Don't cut Cut Don't cut Cut Total Democrats Independents Swing voters Republicans Drop-off voters
  • 53. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Deficit reduction: Republican vs. progressive Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements about Democratic and Republican policy priorities on different issues. After each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SEOCND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. First statement: On addressing the federal deficit, the Republican Second statement: On addressing the federal deficit, the leaders propose returning all unspent stimulus, cutting 100 billion Democratic leaders propose ending the tax cuts for those earning dollars or 20 percent from domestic programs, including education, over 250,000 dollars, while continuing middle class tax cuts, and raising the retirement age for Social Security and turning Medicare adding a bank tax to reduce financial speculation, cutting wasteful into a voucher program to limit costs. military spending and freezing discretionary domestic spending, and ending subsidies to oil companies and other special interests. First statement strongly Second statement strongly +12 +54 +5 +14 +28 73 61 51 51 40 45 39 37 33 37 19 35 37 30 20 20 18 16 7 Republican Democratic Republican Democratic Republican Democratic Republican Democratic Republican Democratic cuts Cuts cuts Cuts cuts Cuts cuts Cuts cuts Cuts Total Democrats Independents Swing voters Republicans
  • 54. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Deficit reduction: Republican vs. progressive with Social Security Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements about Democratic and Republican policy priorities on different issues. After each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SEOCND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. First statement: On addressing the federal deficit, the Republican Second statement: On addressing the federal deficit, the Democratic leaders leaders propose returning all unspent stimulus, cutting 100 billion propose ending the tax cuts for those earning over 250,000 dollars, while dollars or 20 percent from domestic programs, raising the retirement continuing middle class tax cuts, and adding a bank tax to reduce financial speculation, cutting wasteful military spending and freezing discretionary age for Social Security and turning Medicare into a voucher program domestic spending, and ending subsidies to oil companies and other special to limit costs. interests. They would also raise the retirement age for Social Security to 70. First statement strongly Second statement strongly +3 +42 +2 +4 +52 71 66 46 43 45 43 42 38 46 24 19 29 28 29 24 23 24 14 8 Republican Democratic Republican Democratic Republican Democratic Republican Democratic Republican Democratic cuts Cuts cuts Cuts cuts Cuts cuts Cuts cuts Cuts Total Democrats Independents Swing voters Republicans
  • 55. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Job growth: Invest in infrastructure vs. cut deficit and taxes Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements about Democratic and Republican policy priorities on different issues. After each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SEOCND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. First statement: To get our country back on track we must Second statement: To get our country back on track, we must first create jobs by rebuilding our infrastructure, providing tax cut the federal deficit by cutting spending while giving small credits for small business, extending all tax cuts for the middle businesses a tax deduction worth 20 percent of income class, and investing in education, science and technology encouraging them to create jobs as well as extending the tax while also working to reduce the federal deficit each year. cuts for everyone that are set to expire in January. First statement strongly Second statement strongly +10 +60 +7 +23 +43 77 68 58 69 52 50 42 43 53 47 35 43 39 25 33 17 31 21 19 Rebuild Cut deficit Rebuild Cut deficit Rebuild Cut deficit Rebuild Cut deficit Rebuild Cut deficit Total Democrats Independents Swing voters Republicans
  • 56. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Immigration reform: comprehensive vs. tough border and benefits Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements about Democratic and Republican policy priorities on different issues. After each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SEOCND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. First statement: On immigration, the Democratic leaders Second statement: Republican leaders propose much tougher propose comprehensive reforms, including tougher enforcement at the border, to arrest and deport many more enforcement at the border and work place, but also providing a illegal immigrants and, to prohibit those here illegally from path to citizenship for law-abiding, undocumented immigrants benefiting from any taxpayer funded social services. This is not who pay fines and back taxes and get to the back of the line. the time for immigration reforms. First statement strongly Second statement strongly +4 +51 +15 +5 +57 74 74 53 51 44 48 59 46 61 38 39 42 39 23 33 32 17 25 10 Immig reform Not time Immig reform Not time Immig reform Not time Immig reform Not time Immig reform Not time Total Democrats Independents Swing voters Republicans
  • 57. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Trade policy: American jobs, China and NAFTA vs. free trade Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements about Democratic and Republican policy priorities on different issues. After each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SEOCND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. First statement: On trade and exports, the Democratic leaders say, Second statement: On trade and exports, the Republican It's time to challenge countries like China that are taking our jobs, leaders say we need to increase our exports, and that requires end subsidies to corporations that send jobs abroad, stop passing passing more trade agreements, getting government out of the NAFTA-like trade deals until we have a national strategy for making way. American workers can compete and win with any workers things in America and exporting goods, not jobs. across the world. First statement strongly Second statement strongly +9 +60 +7 +31 +46 76 69 59 50 61 47 41 40 28 47 42 23 36 16 32 26 24 13 12 Challenge Gov out of Challenge Gov out of Challenge Gov out of Challenge Gov out of Challenge Gov out of trade way trade way trade way trade way trade way Total Democrats Independents Swing voters Republicans
  • 58. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Trade policy: American jobs with free trade agreements vs. free trade Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements about Democratic and Republican policy priorities on different issues. After each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SEOCND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. First statement: On trade and exports, the Democratic leaders say Second statement: Republican leaders say we need to we need to double our exports over the next five years, that requires increase our exports, and that requires passing more trade ending subsidies to corporations that send jobs abroad, passing agreements, getting government out of the way. American trade agreements to open markets, enforcing an even playing field workers can compete and win with any workers across the for US companies, and working globally to limit trade imbalances. world. First statement strongly Second statement strongly +7 +47 +24 +10 +52 70 72 56 49 52 42 42 32 48 44 23 20 30 31 26 19 22 21 13 Even playing Gov out of Even playing Gov out of Even playing Gov out of Even playing Gov out of Even playing Gov out of field way field way field way field way field way Total Democrats Independents Swing voters Republicans
  • 59. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Post-2010 – presidential growth vision Page 59 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
  • 60. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Obama message: How to move forward Now, I’m going to read you a statement by President Obama and about issues facing the country and get your reaction to it. What is your reaction to the President’s statement, is it very positive, somewhat positive, somewhat negative, or very negative? “I have just met with the new Republican and Democratic leaders and asked them to work together with me to solve the country’s Very Positive Very Negative problems. Voters across the country have sent a clear message and I’ve heard it. The 66 economy isn’t creating enough jobs but we can’t go back to rising debt and dangerous bubbles. My commitment is to build a new foundation for jobs and growth that begins with making things in America again. Yes, we have to reduce our deficits, but it is not enough. We have to make investments in education, in 31 research and innovation, in a competitive 21st 35 century infrastructure. We have to lead in the new energy, Green industrial revolution sweeping the world. This has to be affordable, but my priority is working together to rebuild a 17 successful America with a rising middle class.” Positive Negative
  • 61. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Obama message: Among key groups Now, I’m going to read you a statement by President Obama and about issues facing the country and get your reaction to it. What is your reaction to the President’s statement, is it very positive, somewhat positive, somewhat negative, or very negative? “I have just met with the new Republican and Democratic leaders and asked them to work together with me to solve the Very positive country’s problems. Voters across the 95 country have sent a clear message and I’ve heard it. The economy isn’t creating enough jobs but we can’t go back to rising debt and dangerous bubbles. My 71 71 commitment is to build a new foundation 57 70 for jobs and growth that begins with making things in America again. Yes, we have to reduce our deficits, but it is not enough. We have to make investments 43 in education, in research and innovation, in a competitive 21st century 34 infrastructure. We have to lead in the 24 new energy, Green industrial revolution sweeping the world. This has to be affordable, but my priority is working together to rebuild a successful America Independents Swing voters Democrats Drop-off voters with a rising middle class.”
  • 62. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Post-message economic proposals Now I am going to read you a specific economic proposal that could be considered by the Congress. Please tell me whether this is something that you favor or oppose. Strongly favor Strongly oppose Rebuild our decaying infrastructure now at time when finance and workers are readily available. Create a National 53 Infrastructure Bank that can mobilize public and private investment for a national renovation of everything from vital bridges to a modern electric grid. 35 This has to be done and will cost more to do later. 28 17 Favor Oppose
  • 63. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Post-message economic proposals among key groups Now I am going to read you a specific economic proposal that could be considered by the Congress. Please tell me whether this is something that you favor or oppose. Strongly favor Rebuild our decaying infrastructure now at time when finance and workers 70 are readily available. Create a National Infrastructure Bank that can mobilize public and private investment for a 56 55 51 national renovation of everything from vital bridges to a modern electric grid. This has to be done and will cost more 42 to do later. 28 24 25 Independents Swing voters Democrats Drop-off voters
  • 64. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Post-message economic proposals Now I am going to read you a specific economic proposal that could be considered by the Congress. Please tell me whether this is something that you favor or oppose. Strongly favor Strongly oppose 80 Launch a five year strategy to revive manufacturing in America, providing companies incentives to make it in America, ending tax breaks that reward moving jobs abroad, enforcing buy America provisions on government spending, countering unfair trade and 51 currency practices by China and others, investing in research and technology to foster new products and markets 9 5 Favor Oppose
  • 65. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 Post-message economic proposals among key groups Now I am going to read you a specific economic proposal that could be considered by the Congress. Please tell me whether this is something that you favor or oppose. Strongly favor Launch a five year strategy to revive manufacturing in America, providing 79 81 77 companies incentives to make it in America, ending tax breaks that reward moving jobs abroad, enforcing 60 buy America provisions on government spending, countering unfair trade and 58 currency practices by China and 51 47 others, investing in research and technology to foster new products and 36 markets Independents Swing voters Democrats Drop-off voters
  • 66. November 7, 2008 November 5, 2010 www.greenbergresearch.com Washington, DC California London, UK 10 G Street NE, 50 California Street, 405 Carrington House, Suite 500 Suite 1500 6 Hertford Street Washington, DC 20002 San Francisco, CA 94111 London, UK W1J 7SU Ph: +1 202 478 8300 Ph: +1 415 277 5403 Ph: +44 (0) 207 499 5204 Fax: +1 202 478 8301 Fax: +1 415 358 9599 Fax: +44 (0) 207 499 5284 Page 66 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner