In this first lecture we set the tone for the course and define the themes that we will be looking at. Technology is one of the major factors in change. There are other factors that transform societies but this is the one we will be focusing on. History has many examples of how companies fail to recognize new technology and find ways to dismiss it, only to find their market share drop and eventually they loose out. Why do executives of these companies fail?

1. New Technology
Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
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2. Stephen Elop,
CEO Nokia
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3. Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 3

4. In 2002 Nokia had 35% of
the worlds mobile market
In 2006 Nokia had 73.6% of the
worlds smartphone market
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5. Falling from glory
Nokia stock price 2007-2011
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6. The iPhone Effect
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7. Shift in power
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8. Shift in power
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9. Early 2011, Elop said in a memo they were
standing on a burning platform
Flickr! photo by Micky.!
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10. February 11th 2011, Nokia announced
a partnership with Microsoft
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11. Western Union 1878
7,500 offices
12.000 employees
200,000 miles of cable
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12. Alexander G. Bell, 1876
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13. "This 'telephone' has too many
shortcomings to be seriously
considered as a means of
communication. The device is
inherently of no value to us."
- Western Union internal memo, 1876.
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14. Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 14

15. Britannica 1990
Sales: $650 million
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17. By January 2010, Blockbuster
operated 5,200 stores worldwide
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18. By September 2010, Blockbuster
files for bankruptcy
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19. Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 19

20. Technology is one
of the major
factors in change
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21. In the next few years about billion people will
connect for the first time to the Internet
TV stations as we know them will go out of
business
CDs and DVDs are not the future distribution
format for music
Printed newspapers will go out of business
Mobile phones will dominate Internet traffic
Social networks will be shape the next
generation in more ways than we see today
Real-time news will be handled by people not
news organization
E-books will take over
Credit cards will disappear
Cars will be self-driven
Printing object at home
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22. Technology Trends
“Life is lived forward but understood backwards”
- Sören Kierkegaard
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23. Disruptive Technologies
“In questions of science, the authority of a thousand is
not worth the humble reasoning of a single individual.”
- Galileo Galilie
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24. Copyright © 2012 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson 24

26. There is a fundamental
cultural shift taking place
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Picture by Flickr user Shaggyshoo

27. Every 48
content is created as since
hours as much
the dawn of man though 2004
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28. If your business has not been
disrupted by the Internet, it will
The digital online world
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29. 2000 2010
iMac iPhone
Mac OS 9.0.4 iOS 4.0
500 MHz PowerPC G3 CPU, 128MB Memory 1 Ghz ARM A4 CPU, 512MB Memory
Screen - 786K pixels Screen - 614K pixels
Storage - 30GB Hard Drive Storage - 32GB Flash Drive
Source: Ars Technical Images: Apple
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30. Digital
lifestyle

31. The Cloud
Digital
online
World

32. Digital Online World
Work
Consuming More Browsing Reading Checking
Video information Consuming Consuming Mobile
Information Focused content content Now
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33. How can we
predict
technology?
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