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L04 Evolution of Technology

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Technology is one of the major factors of change. This can be an opportunity or a threat. For many businesses and industries it is important to recognize the threat. New technology is an opportunity for new companies to enter the market.

In this lecture we look at how technology evolves. We look at some of the theories of how technologies evolves including Moore´s Law and the S-curve.

Published in: Technology, Business
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L04 Evolution of Technology

  1. 1. Evolution of Technology "The way to build a complex system that works is to build it from very simple systems that work.” - Kevin KellyCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  2. 2. InnovationCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  3. 3. Ideas build upon Ideas Every generation of technology becomes a source for new innovationsCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  4. 4. Adjacent Possible The untapped potential of what could be...Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  5. 5. The 10/10 Rule 10 years to build a new platform, 10 years for it to be adopted Steven JohnsonCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  6. 6. The Liquid network A good idea is a network. Innovations happens with collaboration Steven JohnsonCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  7. 7. The Slow Hunch A lot of ideas linger on, sometimes for decades, in the back of people’s minds Steven JohnsonCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  8. 8. Serendipity The accident of finding something useful or good without looking for it Steven JohnsonCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  9. 9. Evolution How does technology evolve over time?Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  10. 10. Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson Cycles
  11. 11. Theories of Innovation The study of innovation can be applied on different things: Industries Paradigms Technology ProductsCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  12. 12. Nikolai KondratievCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  13. 13. Kontrativ Wave Technology innovations are in long cycles, 40-60 years, each representing the application of new group of technologies, which eventually will lead to another waveCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  14. 14. Kontrativ WaveCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson Source: Wikipedia, Kondratiev Wave
  15. 15. Kontrativ Wave Wave Years 1 First Industrial Revolution 1787–1842 2 Railroad and Steam Engine Era 1842–1897 3 Age of steel, electricity and internal 1897–1939 combustion 4 War and Post-war Boom: Suburbia 1939–1982 5 Post Industrial Era: Information Technology 1982? – ??Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson Source: Wikipedia, Kondratiev Wave
  16. 16. Diffusion of InnovationInnovation grows in three stages 1. Slow growth – The early phase of exponential growth 2. Rapid growth – The late explosive phase of exponential growth 3. A leveling off as the particular paradigm maturesCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  17. 17. Technology S-Curve Based on the notion of Technology Life Cycle – Improvements in performance varies throughout the life of the technologyCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  18. 18. Timeline Each wave creates number of new inventionsCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  19. 19. The Digital Revolution First computers were built using vacuum tubes Today our cell phone is a powerful computerCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson Source: Wikipedia, Kondratiev Wave
  20. 20. The Digital RevolutionTransistor, 1947 Intel 4004, 1971 Integrated circuit, 1959Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  21. 21. Computers in 1964 IBM System/360 360/20 with 24K of memoryCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  22. 22. Moore’s Law Number of transistors on an integrated circuit will double in about 18-24 months.Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  23. 23. Moore’s Law Number of transistors on an integrated circuit will double in about 18-24 months.Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  24. 24. Technological growth acceleratesCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  25. 25. Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  26. 26. The Fifth ParadigmCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  27. 27. 30 Years of Product Performance1977 2007Apple II $1,298 iMac 17-inch $1,1994000 bytes memory 1GB memoryMotorola 6502 1MHz Intel 2.0GHzCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  28. 28. iPad 2 as fast as Cray 2 supercomputer, fraction of the size Cray 2 1985 Apple iPad 2 2011 Read more: http://www.electronista.com/articles/11/05/10/ipad.2.benches.as.fast.as.cray.2.from.1985/#ixzz1jdOS0Es4Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  29. 29. Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  30. 30. Exponential Growth Slow growth in the beginning than acceleratesCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  31. 31. Second half of the Chess boardCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson Flickr picture by spwelton
  32. 32. The Legend of the Ambalappuzha Paal PayasamCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  33. 33. Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  34. 34. Moore’s Law Number of transistors on an integrated circuit will double in about 18-24 months.Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  35. 35. Explonential growthCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  36. 36. Computers will be fasterCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  37. 37. Computers will be smallerCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  38. 38. Computers will be cheaperCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  39. 39. Computers will be everywhereCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  40. 40. Things that once were impossible become possibleCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  41. 41. Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  42. 42. From a 1946 Comic strip to CES 2009Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  43. 43. 63 years laterCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  44. 44. The Long Nose of Innovation Bill Buxton’s Long nose of Innovation Source: http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/jan2008/id2008012_297369.htCopyright © 2012, m Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  45. 45. Growth of Technology Evolutionary processes – both biology and technology, tend to accelerateCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  46. 46. Ray Kurzweil on how technology will transform us (from TED.com)Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  47. 47. The Law of Accelerating Returns Evolution applies positive feedback in that the more capable methods resulting from one stage of evolutionary progress are used to create the next stage. As a result, the rate of progress of an evolutionary process increases exponentially over time.Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  48. 48. “An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense „intuitive linear‟ view. So we wont experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at todays rate).” - Ray KurzweilCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  49. 49. Technology S-Curve Based on the notion of Technology Life Cycle – Improvements in performance varies throughout the life of the technologyCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  50. 50. Technology S-Curve Exponential trends can be composed of a sequence of S-curves where each curve is fasterCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  51. 51. Technology S-CurveCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  52. 52. Technology S-CurveCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  53. 53. Technology S-CurveCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  54. 54. Technology S-CurveCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  55. 55. Technology Life CycleCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  56. 56. Technology Life Cycle In the early days In the later days The innovators and technology The pragmatists and conservatives enthusiasts drive the market dominate; they want solutions and They demand technology convenience Small percentage of the market The big marketCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  57. 57. Technology Adoption Life CycleCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  58. 58. Is this evolution of technology good?Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  59. 59. Kranzberg’s laws of technologyCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  60. 60. 1. Technology is neither good nor bad; nor is it neutral 2. Invention is the mother of necessity 3. Technology comes in packages, big and smallCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  61. 61. 4. Although technology might be a prime element in many public issues, nontechnical factors take precedence in technology-policy decisions5. All history is relevant, but the history of technology is the most relevant6. Technology is a very human activity - and so is the history of technology.Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  62. 62. What is the impact of technological change?Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  63. 63. Technology is one of the major factors in changeCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  64. 64. Opportunity ThreatCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  65. 65. Example: Digital PhotographyCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  66. 66. Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  67. 67. Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  68. 68. Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  69. 69. Economist article: The last Kodak moment? Kodak is at death’s door; Fujifilm, its old rival, is thriving. Why?Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  70. 70. Think about this Think of a technology that has changed your lifeCopyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  71. 71. Why did Western Union turn down the telephone?Copyright © 2012, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

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