Complexity Thinking

Complexity Thinkingor Systems Thinking ++ ?“The search for simple –if not simpleminded–solutions to complex problems is a consequence ofthe inability to deal effectively with complexity.”– Russell L. Ackoff© Jurgen Appelo version 1.10 management30.com

What happens whenyou go to a bar full ofsystems thinkers andcomplexity researchers

Russell L. Ackoff W. Edwards Deming Peter F. DruckerDonella H. Meadows Peter M. Senge Peter Checkland Gerald M. Weinberg Michael C. Jackson Ralph Stacey Dave Snowden John H. Holland John Seddon Max Boisot

“What exactly is the bar?”

“Are the peoplehere part of the bar?”

“Is the beer part of the bar?”

“If we drink the beer, isit still part of the bar?”

“What if my beer and I go outside?”

“Is the bar a system?”

“What is thepurpose of the bar?”

ReductionismHolismComplexity TheoryModelsComplexity ThinkingExampleFinal words

We converse about abstractionsAbstractions are imperfect and incomplete.

It is a form of interaction The activity of abstracting is basically a formof interaction between people in which theysimplify the complexity of their ownordinary, everyday interactions *…+ in an effortto make meaning of what they are doing *…+.– Ralph StaceyComplexity and Organizational Reality

To make sense of the world Sense-making is the way that humanschoose between multiple possible explanationsof sensory input.– Dave Snowdenhttp://kwork.org/Stars/Snowden/snowden3.html#Simplicity

reductionism əre·duc·tion·ism noun ri-ˈd k-shə-ˈni -zəm– explanation of complex life-science processes and phenomena in terms of the laws of physics and chemistry– a procedure or theory that reduces complex data and phenomena to simple termshttp://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/reductionism

The bar is... the building, inventory, employee s, guests, some interaction, etc...reductionism

A problem is that people have become addictedto the successes of reductionism.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reductionism

“Left-brain” thinkingAll system theories were created by engineersand scientists (“left-brainers”).

Analysis in management This systems movement *…+ has come toform the foundation of today’s dominantmanagement discourse, so importing theengineer’s notion of control into understandinghuman activity.– Ralph StaceyComplexity and Organizational Reality

Problem: DehumanizationCold numbers in spreadsheets

Problem: Objectivation“Designing” human interaction

Problem: AlienationInstructions from ivory towers

Problem: Prediction“Controlling” the future

Problem: AttributionBlaming people for problems

• Problem: Dehumanization• Problem: Objectivization• Problem: Alienation• Problem: Prediction• Problem: AttributionThis list of five problems is myabstraction, and my attempt at sense-making!

Revenge for “right-brainers”Some people have suggested more holisticapproaches.

See the whole system Living systems have integrity. Theircharacter depends on the whole. The same istrue for organizations.– Peter M. SengeThe Fifth Discipline

Greater than the sum of the parts The enterprise must be a genuine whole:greater than the sum of its parts, with its outputlarger than the sum of all inputs.– Peter F. DruckerManagement

Synthesis, not analysis Analysis is only one way of thinking;synthesis is another. [...] In analysis, somethingthat we want to understand is first taken apart.In synthesis, that which we want to understandis first identified as part of one or more largersystems.– Russell L. AckoffRecreating the Corporation

But what is the whole

Problem: ImpossibleIf everything is connected toeverything, what is the “whole”?

Problem: Unscientific new age fluffy bunnies– Dave Snowdenhttp://km4meu.wordpress.com/2011/09/14/radical-ideals-and-fluffy-bunnies/

An unquestioned assumption By formulating a research aim to uncoverthe fundamental characteristics of systems ofvarious kinds, we were making theunquestioned assumption that the worldcontained such systems.– Peter ChecklandSystems Thinking, Systems Practice

Actually, there are no systems Where to draw a boundary around asystem depends on the questions we want toask.– Donella H. MeadowsThinking in Systems

There are perspectives A system is a way of looking at the world.– Gerald M. WeinbergIntroduction to General Systems Thinking

Systems depend on contextThe boundaries of systems keepshifting, using reductionism and holism.How much to abstract or extend depends onwhat you want to understand.

No radical holism/reductionism Complexity theory does not embrace theradical holism of systems theory, the notion thateverything matters and everything has to betaken into account.– Steve PhelanThe Interaction of Complexity and Management

Brains, bacteria, immune systems, theInternet, countries, gardens, cities, beehives…They’re all complex adaptive systems.

A team is a complex adaptive system (CAS), because itconsists of parts (people) that form a system(team), and the system shows complex behavior whileit keeps adapting to a changing environment.

One perspectiveThe properties of complex adaptive systems are:• Aggregation• Nonlinearity• Flows• Diversity– John H. HollandHidden Order

Another perspectiveThere are six notions in complexity theory:• Sensitivity to initial conditions (butterfly effect)• Strange attractors (unpredictability)• Self-similarity (fractals)• Self-organization (distributed control)• The edge of chaos (emergence)• Fitness landscapes (continuous improvement)– Michael C. JacksonSystems Thinking: Creative Holism for Managers

And it evolved like this...– Jeffrey GoldsteinComplexity and the Nexus of Leadership

Or like this...http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Complex_systems_organizational_map.jpg

Or like this...http://www.flickr.com/photos/jurgenappelo/4948963883/

Of course, these are all just abstractions...

Complexity theory itself is complex Papers are being posted on the Web longbefore publication and there is rapid movementof what could be called precodified orprotocodified knowledge. *…+ I am not sayingwhether this is good or bad; I am merelysuggesting that this is one of the characteristicsaffecting the evolution of complexity sciences.– Max BoisotThe Interaction of Complexity and Management

Complexity theory is about change Complexity theory is not a cohesive theory.It is not one equation. It is really a collection ofideas about the concept of change incomplex adaptive systems *…+. It talks about thedynamics of change in a system.– Irene SandersThe Interaction of Complexity and Management

People and relationships We found that this new science leads to anew theory of business that places people andrelationships *…+ into dramatic relief.– Roger Lewin, Birute RegineThe Interaction of Complexity and Management

And about hype I think the next century will be the centuryof complexity.– Stephen HawkingSan Jose Mercury News, 23 January 2000

And about unification We can justifiably think of Complexity as asort of umbrella science – or even the Science ofall Sciences.– Neil JohnsonSimply Complexity

But who wants unification? Scholars *…+ have been understandablyreluctant to see their pet subject as simply onemore example of some broader generalsystem!– Peter ChecklandSystems Thinking, Systems Practice

No consensus, no unification Perhaps because the field has attractedresearchers from a wide diversity of homedisciplines, there is no consensus as to howto define, measure, describe, or interpret"complexity."– Steve MaguireThe Interaction of Complexity and Management

Complexity theory explains why complexproblems need multiple perspectives.It is successful in explaining its own failure atbeing one theory!

But complexity is growing Accelerating economic and social change inthe global economy, the consequent imperativefor ever faster innovation, the emergence ofglobal networks of partners, *…+ themultiplication of media channels, andburgeoning diversity in both the workplace andmarketplace.– Steve DenningRadical Management

And complicated is not complex Analysis works in complicated cases (plic incomplicated means "fold"), but theinterweavings (plex) of the complex do not yieldto reductionist analysis or to a concentration ondetails.– Michael L. LissackThe Interaction of Complexity and Management

You can try to simplify a system to make it understandableBut you cannot linearize the system to make it predictable

Complicated vs. Complex is itself is reductionism(and a false dichotomy)!Some systems can be seen as both complicatedand complex.

This is all great, buthow do we use allthese ideas aboutcomplexity

The Scientific MethodThe traditional approach...1. Observations2. Hypotheses3. Predictions4. Experimentshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method

Houston, we have a problem This makes the standard method ofaccumulating evidence highlyproblematic, because it is based on theassumption of repetitive events. Evidence isaccumulated by observing repetitions intraditional science but rather different notionsof evidence need to be developed for thecomplexity sciences.– Ralph StaceyComplexity and Organizational Reality

Complexity invalidates prediction! The crucial problem which science faces isits ability to cope with complexity.– Peter ChecklandSystems Thinking, Systems Practice

Complexity theory predicts that we cannot relyon predictions.

That doesn’t seemvery helpful.Is there anythingelse we can do

What’sthis? http://www.flickr.com/photos/hey__paul/6223650676/

modelmod·el noun ˈmädəl -– a usually miniature representation of something– a description or analogy used to help visualize something (as an atom) that cannot be directly observed– a system of postulates, data, and inferences presented as a mathematical description of an entity or state of affairshttp://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/model

We use models for two reasonsConfirmatory models: prediction & controlExploratory models: insight & understanding– Steve PhelanThe Interaction of Complexity and Management

We’ll focus on exploratory modelsConfirmatory models are impossible to make incomplexity theory. But we can use exploratorymodels to aid in sense-making.

Making sense of improvementhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PDCAhttp://gumption.typepad.com/blog/entrepreneuria/

Making sense of learning Shu Beginner Advanced Beginner Ha Competent Proficient Ri Experthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shuharihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dreyfus_model_of_skill_acquisition

Making sense of complexity Ralph Stacey Dave Snowden

There’s only 1 criterion for modelsDoes the model help people to make sense ofthe world (insight and understanding)?

Of course, it requires a balanceHow detailed (complicated) will you make themodel to make it useful?The usefulness of a model depends on thecomplexity of the mind and of the environment.

A simple model of Londonhttp://3.bp.blogspot.com/_FHHhq9JdAXg/TIUalCWz_zI/AAAAAAAAAUg/C0CTOtV6iiw/s1600/cowshed-spasmap-aw8-low+res.jpg

A complicated model of Londonhttp://www.bestcitymaps.com/citymaps/images/london.jpg

A simple model for projectshttp://effectiveagiledev.com/AgileTraining/ScrumImplementationWorkshop/tabid/74/Default.aspx

A complicated model for projectshttp://wyzsadvies.blogspot.com/2010/08/project-beheer-en-de-papierwinkel.html

A simple model for managers– Jurgen AppeloManagement 3.0

A complicated model for managers– Dan LevinthalThe Interaction of Complexity and Management

Models are never perfect All models wrong, some are useful.– George BoxUsefulness is context-dependent. It dependson the people and their environment.

What’sthis? http://www.flickr.com/photos/miguelpdl/4356975474/

metaphormet·a·phor noun ˈmetə-ˈ r also -fər - fȯ– a figure of speech in which a word or phrase literally denoting one kind of object or idea is used in place of another to suggest a likeness or analogy between themhttp://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/metaphor

Metaphors in science• Butterfy Effect• Edge of Chaos• Survival of the FittestMetaphors are fuzzy but effective models.

Metaphors in management• organizations as machines;• organizations as organisms;• organizations as brains;• organizations as flux and transformation;• organizations as cultures;• organizations as political systems;• organizations as psychic prisons;• organizations as instruments of domination;• organizations as carnivals.– Michael C. JacksonSystems Thinking: Creative Holism for Managers

Organizations as machines Machine images pervade managementjargon. We have managers who “run” acompany, much the way you would run amachine. We have the “owners” of thecompany, which is perfectly appropriateterminology for a machine but somewhatproblematic when applied to a humancommunity. And of course there are leaderswho “drive change.”– Peter M. SengeThe Fifth Discipline

Danger of metaphors Reminiscence syndromeJumping to conclusions because things look “the same”– Jack Cowan

Example: inventory as wasteThe metaphor of inventory applied toknowledge work can be useful, but it fails fast.It leads people to draw conclusions about“waste” that make no sense (to me).

Useful question: when do they fail?Metaphors are the weakest of all models.They fail fast.Science likes mathematical models.They fail much later.

A key point of complexity theoryMultiple weak models can make just as muchsense as one strong model. (And it’s certainlybetter than no models.)In the end all models fail.

This point makes it clear you also need otherpeople’s views on complexity thinking.A single perspective is not enough!

What’s this? http://www.flickr.com/photos/adactio/2634586376/

mathematicsmath·e·mat·ics noun ˈmathˈmatiks, ˈmathə- - - -– the science of numbers and their operations, interrelations, combinations, generalizat ions, and abstractions and of space configurations and their structure, measurement, transformations, and generalizationshttp://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/mathematics

Scientific management (Taylorism)The earliest attempt at applying mathematics tomanagement of organizations.• Improving efficiency• Reducing variation• Increasing outputhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_management

What’s this?http://www.flickr.com/photos/inacentaurdump/2604198505/

simulationsim·u·la·tion noun ˈsim -yə-ˈlāshən -– the imitative representation of the functioning of one system or process by means of the functioning of another– examination of a problem often not subject to direct experimentation by means of a simulating devicehttp://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/simulation

The heart of complexity theory At the heart of complexity theory are theseformal models that utilize new techniques inartificial intelligence to motivate artificialagents. Behind them are some heavy-dutymathematics and computer science.– Steve PhelanThe Interaction of Complexity and Management

Problem: prediction & control For systems dynamics thinkers, the aim is toidentify leverage points for interventions thatwill enable them to identify where, when andhow to initiate change and so stay in control.However, the ability to do this in a system that issensitive to tiny changes is called into question.That obviously has serious implications for thehuman ability to stay ‘in control’.– Ralph StaceyComplexity and Organizational Reality

What’sthis? http://www.flickr.com/photos/mikebaird/3464803900/

patternpat·tern noun ˈpatərn -– a form or model proposed for imitation– a reliable sample of traits, acts, tendencies, or other observable characteristics of a person, group, or institution– a discernible coherent system based on the intended interrelationship of component partshttp://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/pattern

Causal Loop DiagramsSeekingpatterns

Archetype: Shifting the burden Shifting the burden, dependence, andaddiction arise when a solution to a systemicproblem reduces (or disguises) thesymptoms, but does nothing to solve theunderlying problem.– Donella H. MeadowsThinking in Systems

Archetype: Shifting problems Solutions that merely shift problems fromone part of a system to another often goundetected because, unlike the rugmerchant, those who “solved” the first problemare different from those who inherit the newproblem.– Peter M. SengeThe Fifth Discipline

Archetype: The easy way out We all find comfort applying familiarsolutions to problems, sticking to what we knowbest.– Peter M. SengeThe Fifth Discipline

Problem : objectivation Consider how this systems thinkingcompares with the earlier framework ofscientific management. The manager continuesto be equated with the natural scientist, theobjective observer, and just as the scientist isconcerned with a natural phenomenon, so themanager is concerned with an organization.– Ralph StaceyComplexity and Organizational Reality

Problem : objectivation Hard systems thinking is unable to dealsatisfactorily with multiple perceptions ofreality. *…+ Different stakeholders will havediverse opinions about the nature of the systemthey are involved with and about its properpurposes.– Michael C. JacksonSystems Thinking: Creative Holism for Managers

So, how shouldwe use thosemodels in asocial system

“Soft Systems Thinking”– Michael C. JacksonSystems Thinking: Creative Holism for Managers

“Soft Complexity”Systems theory -> Hard systems thinking Soft systems thinkingComplexity theory -> Hard complexity Soft complexity– Steve MaguireThe Interaction of Complexity and Management

“Social Complexity”– Dave Snowdenhttp://emergentpublications.com/ECO/ECO_other/Issue_6_1-2_19_FM.pdf

Complexity Thinking (as I see it)

1) Address complexity with complexity The complexity of a system must beadequate to the complexity of the environmentthat it finds itself in.– Max BoisotThe Interaction of Complexity and ManagementThe human mind is more complex than toolsUse stories, metaphors, pictures…

Law of Requisite Variety If a system is to be stable the number ofstates of its control mechanism must be greaterthan or equal to the number of states in thesystem being controlled.– William Ross Ashby

Law of Requisite Variety Ashbys law of requisite variety is asimportant to managers as Einsteins law ofrelativity to physicists.– Anthony Stafford BeerDesigning Freedom

The Kanban board is complicated, not complex.http://www.xqa.com.ar/visualmanagement/tag/kanban/

360 Degree evaluations

Narratives useful for sense-making [Complexity thinkers] argue that complexthinking is best accomplished in a narrativemode of thinking rather than the propositionalthinking of the traditional scientific method. *…+Both involverecursiveness, nonlinearity, sensitivedependency on initialconditions, indeterminacy, unpredictability andemergence.

Consider stories, metaphors, pictures or videohttps://picasaweb.google.com/114043888000663006020/ALENetworkWorldCafeAtXP2011Results

Reduction vs. Absorption Complexity reduction entails getting tounderstand the complexity and acting on itdirectly, including attempting environmentalenactment. Complexity absorption entailscreating options and risk-hedging strategies.– Max BoisotThe Interaction of Complexity and Management

From reduction to absorption Top-down rules reduce an organization’sability to deal with variety.– John SeddonFreedom from Command & Control

Reduction vs. Absorption Insofar as the business environment isbecoming more complex, firms will need to shiftfrom the complexity-reducing strategies thatsecured their success from the end of thenineteenth until the end of the twentiethcentury and place more stress on complexity-absorbing ones-a shift away from bureaucraciesand toward fiefs, markets, and clans.– Max BoisotThe Interaction of Complexity and Management

2) Use a diversity of models Complexity itself is anti-methodology. It isagainst "one size fits all."– Tom PetzingerThe Interaction of Complexity and ManagementMultiple weak models can make just as muchsense as one strong model.

Multiple approaches Each systems approach is useful for certainpurposes and in particular types of problemsituation. A diversity ofapproaches, therefore, heralds not a crisis butincreased competence in a variety of problemcontexts.– Michael C. JacksonSystems Thinking: Creative Holism for Managers

Multiple approaches• Different people and tools• Different metaphors and analogies• Different patterns and simulations• Different methods and practices

3) Assume dependence on context Best practice is past practice.– Dave SnowdenThe Interaction of Complexity and Management

Retrospective coherence Any evidence provided will depend on theperiod selected and the place in which theevents are occurring as well as other aspects ofcontext. It follows that any relationship anyoneidentifies between a management action and anoutcome could have far more to do with aparticular time and place where the sample isselected than anything else.– Ralph StaceyComplexity and Organizational Reality

4) Assume subjectivity and coevolutionThe observer influences the system, and thesystem influences the observer.The people form the culture, and the cultureforms the people.

Feedback changesthe whole system.

5) Anticipate, adapt, exploreAnticipationLooking forward, proactive, imagining improvementAdaptationLooking backward, reactive, responding to changeExplorationTrying things out, safe-to-fail experiments

6) Develop models in collaborationDoes the model help people to make sense ofthe world (insight and understanding)?

1. Address complexity with complexity2. Use a diversity of models3. Assume dependence on context4. Assume subjectivity and coevolution5. Anticipate, adapt, and explore6. Develop models in collaboration

Does Scrum Match Complexity Thinking?1. Address complexity with complexity Yes2. Use a diversity of models No3. Assume dependence on context Yes4. Assume subjectivity and coevolution Yes5. Anticipate, adapt, and explore No6. Develop models in collaboration Yes

1. Address complexity with complexity2. Use a diversity of models3. Assume dependence on context4. Assume subjectivity and coevolution5. Anticipate, adapt, and explore6. Develop models in collaboration

ExampleWhat is the purpose of an organization?

It’s about the shareholder Our aim is to be the biggest or secondbiggest market player, and to return maximumvalue to stockholders.– Jack Welch (General Electric)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shareholder_value

It’s about the customer There is only one valid definition of businesspurpose: to create a customer.– Peter F. DruckerManagement

It’s about the employee When we talk to our People, we proudlydraw a pyramid on the chalkboard and tellthem: You are at the top of the pyramid. You arethe most important person to us. You are ourmost important Customer in terms of priority.– Colleen Barrett (Southwest Airlines)http://leaderchat.org/2011/01/10/customers-employees-and-shareholders%E2%80%94who-comes-first-in-your-organization/

It’s about the organization The fundamental mission of an organizationis to survive.– W. Warner BurkeOrganization Change

It’s about the environment The function of firms is to produce anddistribute wealth.– Russell L. AckoffRecreating the Organization

It’s about all of them Organizations must be viewed as socialsystems serving three sets of purposes: theirown, those of their parts and those of the widersystems of which they are part.– Michael C. JacksonSystems Thinking: Creative Holism for Managers

It’s about none of them A system has no purpose. Purpose is arelation, not a thing to have.– Gerald M. WeinbergIntroduction to General Systems Thinking

Well, it depends... Purposes are deduced from behavior, notfrom rhetoric or stated goals.– Donella H. MeadowsThinking in Systems

My view (with complexity thinking hat)They all have a good point.Sometimes we need a simple model.Sometimes we need a complicated model.

The Shu-Ha-Ri of purposeShu Delight customersHa Delight all stakeholdersRi Delight yourself

All models can be useful.Some fail faster than others.– Jurgen Appelo

There is nothing as practical as good theory.– Kurt Lewin

We should not take our models tooseriously.– Gerald M. WeinbergIntroduction to Systems Thinking

Is it Complexity Thinkingor Systems Thinking ++

The magpieFinds what’s valuable and uses it in its nestThe only bird capable of self-reflection

1. Address complexity with complexity2. Use a diversity of models3. Assume dependence on context4. Assume subjectivity and coevolution5. Anticipate, adapt, and explore6. Develop models in collaboration7. Copy and change

The peacockShowing off a complicated but totally useless ideaNot capable of self-reflection

Dont take speakers too seriously.Listen (critically) to the magpiesBe wary of the peacocks.

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Complexity Thinking

by Jurgen Appelo on Oct 19, 2011

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Complexity Thinking — Presentation Transcript