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Complexity versus Lean
Jurgen Appelo
jurgen@noop.nl
version 2
The Big Showdown
Jurgen Appelo
writer, speaker,
entrepreneur...
www.jurgenappelo.com
Goal
To further improve Lean software development by
understanding and applying complexity thinking
Agenda
What is complex systems theory?
What is lean software development?
Can we define complexity thinking?
Can we apply complexity thinking?
A new management model
7 principles of Lean software development
5 core practices of Kanban
Various lean practices
Conclusion
Emergent, self-organizing, unpredictable
http://www.flickr.com/photos/judepics/
Sometimes adaptive, sometimes not
http://www.flickr.com/photos/hdr400d/
Complex Systems
“A complex system is a system composed of interconnected parts
that as a whole exhibit one or more properties (behavior) not
obvious from the properties of the individual parts.”
Sometimes called the sciences of complexity (plural)
http://cfpm.org/pub/users/bruce/thesis/chap4.pdf
General SystemsTheory
Autopoiesis (how a system constructs itself)
Identity (how a system is identifiable)
Homeostatis (how a system remains stable)
Permeability (how a system interacts with its environment)
Ludwig von Bertalanffy
(biologist)
1901-1972
Study of relationships between elements
Cybernetics
Goals (the intention of achieving a desired state)
Acting (having an effect on the environment)
Sensing (checking the response of the environment)
Evaluating (comparing current state with system’s goal)
Norbert Wiener
(mathematician)
1894-1964
Study of regulatory systems
Dynamical SystemsTheory
Stability (stable states versus unstable states)
Attractors (systems getting sucked into stable states)
Study of system behavior
Game Theory
Competition versus cooperation
Zero sum games versus non-zero sum games
Strategies (including evolutionary stable strategies)
John von Neumann
(mathematician)
1903-1957
Study of co-adapting systems
EvolutionaryTheory
Population (more than one instance)
Replication (mechanism of making new instances)
Variation (differences between instances)
Heredity (differences copied from existing instances)
Selection (environment imposes selective pressure)
Charles Darwin
(naturalist)
1809-1882
Study of evolving systems
Chaos Theory
Strange attractors (chaotic behavior)
Sensitivity to initial conditions (butterfly effect)
Fractals (scale-invariance)
Edward Lorenz
(meteorologist)
1917-2008
Study of unpredictable systems
And more...
Dissipative systems (spontaneous pattern-forming)
Cellular automata (complex behavior from simple rules)
Genetic algorithms (adaptive learning)
Social network analysis (propagation of information)
Study of all kinds of systems
The Body of Knowledge of Systems
Complex systems theory
is the study of complex
systems using multiple
system theories
The Body of Knowledge of Systems
Complex systems theory
enables a descriptive approach
to the study of social systems
Agenda
What is complex systems theory?
What is lean software development?
Can we define complexity thinking?
Can we apply complexity thinking?
A new management model
7 principles of Lean software development
5 core practices of Kanban
Various lean practices
Conclusion
Lean Software Development
14 principles ofTheToyota Way
Lean manufacturing
14 Points for Management (Deming)
Toyota Production System (TPS)
Just In Time Production
Respect for People & Continuous Improvement
http://www.complexification.net/gallery/machines/treeGarden/
Lean development is a
prescriptive approach to
work in social systems
Fundamental Forces
of Physics
Complex Systems
Theory
Lean manufacturing Lean developmentPrescriptive:
Descriptive:
Agenda
What is complex systems theory?
What is lean software development?
Can we define complexity thinking?
Can we apply complexity thinking?
A new management model
7 principles of Lean software development
5 core practices of Kanban
Various lean practices
Conclusion
Complexity
“Complexity is that property of a system which makes it difficult to
predict its overall behavior, even when given reasonably complete
information about its components and their relations.”
http://cfpm.org/pub/users/bruce/thesis/chap4.pdf
“edge of chaos”
“chaordic processes”
The Agreement & Certainty Model
Stacey, Ralph D., Strategic Management and Organisational Dynamics: The Challenge of Complexity, ©2000 Pearson Education, Inc.
Complex and complicated
seen as different domains
Simple + Complicated = Ordered;
Complex is between
ordered and chaotic
The Cynefin Framework
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cynefin
Complex and complicated
seen as different domains
There’s a fifth domain “disorder”
in the middle; and a “cliff”
between simple and chaotic
Simplicity: A New Model
Simple = structure is easily understandable
Complicated = structure is very hard to understand
Ordered = behavior is fully predictable
Complex = behavior is somewhat predictable
Chaotic = behavior is very unpredictable
Simplification = making something better understandable
Linearization = making something more predictable
Structure-Behavior Model
http://www.noop.nl/2010/09/simplicity-a-new-model.html
Complex and complicated
seen as different dimensions
Unhappy accident: tiger “eats” performer
“Black Swans”: unpredicted big events
Complex system is often predictable, sometimes not
Impact of “unknown unknowns” higher than all else
Risk management deals only with “known unknowns”
Mirage Casino lost $• 100 million due to show cancellations
Airline industry lost billions because of ash cloud from Iceland•
• 9/11
http://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness-Fragility/dp/081297381X/
Happy accident: inkjet printer invention
Serendipity
Accidental discovery while looking for something else
Again: high impact, not predicted
• Inkjet printer invented when putting soldering iron on pen
• Viagra invented by accident (by Pfizer)
• America discovered by accident
http://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness-Fragility/dp/081297381X/
Distinguishing Cause and Effect
Non-Linear Behavior
Sometimes hard to distinguish cause and effect
Sometimes many causes for one effect
Low quality from high pressure,•
or high pressure from low quality?
Bad atmosphere because colleagues are cranky,•
or colleagues are cranky because of bad atmosphere?
http://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness-Fragility/dp/081297381X/
Agenda
What is complex systems theory?
What is lean software development?
Can we define complexity thinking?
Can we apply complexity thinking?
A new management model
7 principles of Lean software development
5 core practices of Kanban
Various lean practices
Conclusion
System Dynamics
Circular feedback loops and time-delayed relationships
Analysis through simulations and calculations
Jay Wright Forrester
(computer engineer)
1918-
Study of non-linear behavior of systems
Systems Thinking
“Problems” are part of a system
View systems in a holistic manner
Not a science, but a “frame of mind”
Peter Michael Senge
(social scientist)
1947-
Approach to problem solving
Some Criticism
“The strength of systems thinking is its recognition that human
systems are messy, they frequently need focus and alignment; its
weakness is that it assumes that the design of that focus and
alignment is a top down objective based process. […]The ambiguity
of human systems is recognized, but the basic concept of central
control or planning remains at the heart.”
Multi-ontology sense-making - David Snowden (2005)
http://kwork.org/stars/snowden/Snowden.pdf
Some Criticism
“Systems thinking contains a fundamental difficulty right at its
roots. This is to regard human interaction as a system. This
assumption leads to thinking about that interaction as something
about which another human standing outside it makes choices.”
Complexity and Management – Ralph Stacey (2000)
http://www.amazon.com/Complexity-Management-Inorganisations-Ralph-Stacey/dp/0415247616/
“Traditional” SystemsThinking
http://www.amazon.com/Complexity-Management-Inorganisations-Ralph-Stacey/dp/0415247616/
observer
system
Complexity Thinking
http://www.amazon.com/Complexity-Management-Inorganisations-Ralph-Stacey/dp/0415247616/
observers
system
ComplexityThinking
Don’t separate the designers from the system
Don’t ignore the human part (social complexity)
Don’t ignore the unknown unknowns
Don’t rely (too much) on linear cause and effect
ComplexityThinking = SystemsThinking++
Jurgen Appelo
(idea farmer)
1969-
Agenda
What is complex systems theory?
What is lean software development?
Can we define complexity thinking?
Can we apply complexity thinking?
A new management model
7 principles of Lean software development
5 core practices of Kanban
Various lean practices
Conclusion
View #1: Energize People
People are the most important parts of an
organization and managers must do all they can to
keep people active, creative, and motivated.
View #2: Empower Teams
Teams can self-organize, and this requires
empowerment, authorization, and trust from
management.
View #3: Align Constraints
Self-organization can lead to anything, and it’s
therefore necessary to protect people and shared
resources, and to give people a clear purpose and
defined goals.
View #4: Develop Competence
Teams cannot achieve these goals if team members
aren’t capable enough, and managers must therefore
contribute to the development of competence.
View #5: Grow Structure
Many teams operate within the context of a complex
organization, and thus it is important to consider
structures that enhance communication .
View #6: Improve Everything
People, teams, and organizations need to improve
continuously to defer failure for as long as possible.
The Management 3.0 Model
Six organizational
views based on
complexity thinking
Agenda
What is complex systems theory?
What is lean software development?
Can we define complexity thinking?
Can we apply complexity thinking?
A new management model
7 principles of Lean software development
5 core practices of Kanban
Various lean practices
Conclusion
Principle 1: EleminateWaste
http://www.flickr.com/photos/braydawg/202403468/
Principle 1: Eleminate Waste
Yes, but…
Junk DNA (98%) enables innovation and resilience
You cannot measure the unexpected value of waste
And thus:
There can be value in having waste “lying around”
If the cost of waste is low, maybe you should keep it
Principle 2: Build Quality In
http://www.flickr.com/photos/extranoise/276297674/
Principle 2: Build Quality In
Yes, but…
Preventing errors inhibits learning from errors
Limiting ways of usage limits innovation
You cannot predict the value of doing things “wrong”
And thus:
There can be value in being ambiguous & inexplicit
Principle 3: Create Knowledge
http://www.flickr.com/photos/butterflysha/135659489/
Principle 3: Create Knowledge
Yes, but…
Develop Competence =
skill * discipline * knowledge * social connectivity
And connectivity has more effect than knowledge
Cross, Rob et.al. The Hidden Power of Social Networks. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2004
And thus:
Competence in the system is more than knowledge
Principle 4: Defer Commitment
http://www.flickr.com/photos/zoutedrop/2317065892/
Principle 4: Defer Commitment
Yes, but…
Committing early can be motivating
Committing early changes risks and opportunities
You cannot predict the results of these changes
And thus:
There is (sometimes) value in making early choices
Principle 5: Deliver Fast
http://www.flickr.com/photos/curns/4237949343/
Principle 5: Deliver Fast
Yes, but…
This assumes adaptation as a survival strategy
Humans are successful thanks to consciousness
Also called an “anticipation device” (Daniel Dennett)
Anticipation can (sometimes) outsmart adaptation
And thus:
Think (briefly), then deliver fast
Principle 6: Respect People
http://www.flickr.com/photos/fhashemi/44551132/
Principle 6: Respect People
Yes, but…
Energize People =
trust * respect * motivation * diversity * creativity
Respect is insufficient to instill a “need” for work
And thus:
People in the system must be energized
Principle 7: Optimize theWhole
http://www.flickr.com/photos/flatbag74/2884704165/
Principle 7: Optimize the Whole
Yes, but…
Cross-functional teams can be sub-optimizing too
“Optimize the whole” invites top-down control
A complex system finds its own global optimum
through local optimizations and global dependencies
And thus:
Create locally optimizing and interdependent teams
“Missing” in Lean Software Development
No guidance on structuring organizations
No explicit choice for value networks over hierarchies
That’s why Lean is abused in top-down “lean & mean”
“Missing” in Lean Software Development
Agenda
What is complex systems theory?
What is lean software development?
Can we define complexity thinking?
Can we apply complexity thinking?
A new management model
7 principles of Lean software development
5 core practices of Kanban
Various lean practices
Conclusion
1: Visualize the workflow
http://www.flickr.com/photos/audreyjm529/235458062/
1:Visualize the workflow
Yes, but…
“Value stream” and “value chains” suggest a linear
flow of value
But an organization has many stakeholders,
who all want to get value out of their collaboration
And thus…
Visualize multiple workflows
2: Limit work in progress (WIP)
http://www.flickr.com/photos/blumpy/325853852/
2: Limit work in progress (WIP)
Yes, but…
A book author has an entire book in progress
LimitedWIP is just one example of a constraint
And thus:
A system will self-organize around its constraints
Choose constraints to match the workflow
3: Measure and manage flow
http://www.flickr.com/photos/chefranden/390872656/
3: Measure and manage flow
Yes, but…
Leads to sub-optimization when only flow to
customers is considered
And thus:
Measure and manage flow to all stakeholders
(customers, suppliers, employees, shareholders, …)
4: Make process policies explicit
http://www.flickr.com/photos/moonlightbulb/3323103034/
4: Make process policies explicit
Yes, but…
Genetic algorithms: a variety of conflicting rules
Learning made possible through “credit assignment”
And thus:
Experiment with rules
5: Use models to suggest improvements
http://www.flickr.com/photos/jurvetson/447302275/
5: Use models to suggest improvements
Yes, but…
All models are wrong, some are useful
Beware of “scientific approach” to workflows
Banks and casinos also have “scientific approaches”
Yet, they have been unpleasantly surprised…
And thus:
Use complexity thinking to suggest models
http://availagility.co.uk/2010/10/11/a-model-for-creating-a-kanban-system/
“A Model for Creating a Kanban System”
http://availagility.co.uk/2010/10/11/a-model-for-creating-a-kanban-system/
“A Model for Creating a Kanban System”
Complexity
Thinking
“Missing” in Kanban
Agenda
What is complex systems theory?
What is lean software development?
Can we define complexity thinking?
Can we apply complexity thinking?
A new management model
7 principles of Lean software development
5 core practices of Kanban
Various lean practices
Conclusion
Root Cause Analysis
Suggests there is a root cause
But often there are non-linear relationships
Unclear what is cause and what is effect
Kaizen
Suggests gradual linear process improvement
But systems can get stuck in a local optimum on the
fitness landscape
Sometimes need for radical change (kaikaku)
Optimization
Adaptation: looking back (responding)
Exploration: looking around (experimenting)
Anticipation: looking forward (expecting)
We need
all three
Agenda
What is complex systems theory?
What is lean software development?
Can we define complexity thinking?
Can we apply complexity thinking?
A new management model
7 principles of Lean software development
5 core practices of Kanban
Various lean practices
Conclusion
I admit, I sometimes
apply complexity
thinking to blog writing
The 1st “danger” of Lean
Relying on tools, ignoring social complexity
http://kwork.org/stars/snowden/Snowden.pdf
The 2nd “danger” of Lean
Relying on statistics, ignoring Black Swans
http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/taleb08/taleb08_index.html
The 3rd “danger” of Lean
Relying on cause and effect, ignoring non-linearity
The 4th “danger” of Lean
Relying on existing structures, customer-demand
Ignoring value networks, multiple stakeholders
http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/taleb08/taleb08_index.html
A
D
C
E
B
Lean is GREAT!
(really, it is)
But let’s not stop thinking.
the end
m30.me/happiness
@jurgenappelo
slideshare.net/jurgenappelo
noop.nl
linkedin.com/in/jurgenappelo
jurgen@noop.nl
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/3.0/
This presentation was inspired by the works of many people, and
I cannot possibly list them all. Though I did my very best to attribute
all authors of texts and images, and to recognize any copyrights, if
you think that anything in this presentation should be changed,
added or removed, please contact me at jurgen@noop.nl.

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Complexity versus Lean

  • 1. Complexity versus Lean Jurgen Appelo jurgen@noop.nl version 2 The Big Showdown
  • 3. Goal To further improve Lean software development by understanding and applying complexity thinking
  • 4. Agenda What is complex systems theory? What is lean software development? Can we define complexity thinking? Can we apply complexity thinking? A new management model 7 principles of Lean software development 5 core practices of Kanban Various lean practices Conclusion
  • 6. Sometimes adaptive, sometimes not http://www.flickr.com/photos/hdr400d/
  • 7. Complex Systems “A complex system is a system composed of interconnected parts that as a whole exhibit one or more properties (behavior) not obvious from the properties of the individual parts.” Sometimes called the sciences of complexity (plural) http://cfpm.org/pub/users/bruce/thesis/chap4.pdf
  • 8. General SystemsTheory Autopoiesis (how a system constructs itself) Identity (how a system is identifiable) Homeostatis (how a system remains stable) Permeability (how a system interacts with its environment) Ludwig von Bertalanffy (biologist) 1901-1972 Study of relationships between elements
  • 9. Cybernetics Goals (the intention of achieving a desired state) Acting (having an effect on the environment) Sensing (checking the response of the environment) Evaluating (comparing current state with system’s goal) Norbert Wiener (mathematician) 1894-1964 Study of regulatory systems
  • 10. Dynamical SystemsTheory Stability (stable states versus unstable states) Attractors (systems getting sucked into stable states) Study of system behavior
  • 11. Game Theory Competition versus cooperation Zero sum games versus non-zero sum games Strategies (including evolutionary stable strategies) John von Neumann (mathematician) 1903-1957 Study of co-adapting systems
  • 12. EvolutionaryTheory Population (more than one instance) Replication (mechanism of making new instances) Variation (differences between instances) Heredity (differences copied from existing instances) Selection (environment imposes selective pressure) Charles Darwin (naturalist) 1809-1882 Study of evolving systems
  • 13. Chaos Theory Strange attractors (chaotic behavior) Sensitivity to initial conditions (butterfly effect) Fractals (scale-invariance) Edward Lorenz (meteorologist) 1917-2008 Study of unpredictable systems
  • 14. And more... Dissipative systems (spontaneous pattern-forming) Cellular automata (complex behavior from simple rules) Genetic algorithms (adaptive learning) Social network analysis (propagation of information) Study of all kinds of systems
  • 15. The Body of Knowledge of Systems Complex systems theory is the study of complex systems using multiple system theories
  • 16. The Body of Knowledge of Systems Complex systems theory enables a descriptive approach to the study of social systems
  • 17. Agenda What is complex systems theory? What is lean software development? Can we define complexity thinking? Can we apply complexity thinking? A new management model 7 principles of Lean software development 5 core practices of Kanban Various lean practices Conclusion
  • 18. Lean Software Development 14 principles ofTheToyota Way Lean manufacturing 14 Points for Management (Deming) Toyota Production System (TPS) Just In Time Production Respect for People & Continuous Improvement http://www.complexification.net/gallery/machines/treeGarden/ Lean development is a prescriptive approach to work in social systems
  • 19. Fundamental Forces of Physics Complex Systems Theory Lean manufacturing Lean developmentPrescriptive: Descriptive:
  • 20. Agenda What is complex systems theory? What is lean software development? Can we define complexity thinking? Can we apply complexity thinking? A new management model 7 principles of Lean software development 5 core practices of Kanban Various lean practices Conclusion
  • 21. Complexity “Complexity is that property of a system which makes it difficult to predict its overall behavior, even when given reasonably complete information about its components and their relations.” http://cfpm.org/pub/users/bruce/thesis/chap4.pdf “edge of chaos” “chaordic processes”
  • 22. The Agreement & Certainty Model Stacey, Ralph D., Strategic Management and Organisational Dynamics: The Challenge of Complexity, ©2000 Pearson Education, Inc. Complex and complicated seen as different domains Simple + Complicated = Ordered; Complex is between ordered and chaotic
  • 23. The Cynefin Framework http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cynefin Complex and complicated seen as different domains There’s a fifth domain “disorder” in the middle; and a “cliff” between simple and chaotic
  • 24. Simplicity: A New Model Simple = structure is easily understandable Complicated = structure is very hard to understand Ordered = behavior is fully predictable Complex = behavior is somewhat predictable Chaotic = behavior is very unpredictable Simplification = making something better understandable Linearization = making something more predictable
  • 26. Unhappy accident: tiger “eats” performer
  • 27. “Black Swans”: unpredicted big events Complex system is often predictable, sometimes not Impact of “unknown unknowns” higher than all else Risk management deals only with “known unknowns” Mirage Casino lost $• 100 million due to show cancellations Airline industry lost billions because of ash cloud from Iceland• • 9/11 http://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness-Fragility/dp/081297381X/
  • 28. Happy accident: inkjet printer invention
  • 29. Serendipity Accidental discovery while looking for something else Again: high impact, not predicted • Inkjet printer invented when putting soldering iron on pen • Viagra invented by accident (by Pfizer) • America discovered by accident http://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness-Fragility/dp/081297381X/
  • 31. Non-Linear Behavior Sometimes hard to distinguish cause and effect Sometimes many causes for one effect Low quality from high pressure,• or high pressure from low quality? Bad atmosphere because colleagues are cranky,• or colleagues are cranky because of bad atmosphere? http://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness-Fragility/dp/081297381X/
  • 32. Agenda What is complex systems theory? What is lean software development? Can we define complexity thinking? Can we apply complexity thinking? A new management model 7 principles of Lean software development 5 core practices of Kanban Various lean practices Conclusion
  • 33. System Dynamics Circular feedback loops and time-delayed relationships Analysis through simulations and calculations Jay Wright Forrester (computer engineer) 1918- Study of non-linear behavior of systems
  • 34. Systems Thinking “Problems” are part of a system View systems in a holistic manner Not a science, but a “frame of mind” Peter Michael Senge (social scientist) 1947- Approach to problem solving
  • 35. Some Criticism “The strength of systems thinking is its recognition that human systems are messy, they frequently need focus and alignment; its weakness is that it assumes that the design of that focus and alignment is a top down objective based process. […]The ambiguity of human systems is recognized, but the basic concept of central control or planning remains at the heart.” Multi-ontology sense-making - David Snowden (2005) http://kwork.org/stars/snowden/Snowden.pdf
  • 36. Some Criticism “Systems thinking contains a fundamental difficulty right at its roots. This is to regard human interaction as a system. This assumption leads to thinking about that interaction as something about which another human standing outside it makes choices.” Complexity and Management – Ralph Stacey (2000) http://www.amazon.com/Complexity-Management-Inorganisations-Ralph-Stacey/dp/0415247616/
  • 39. ComplexityThinking Don’t separate the designers from the system Don’t ignore the human part (social complexity) Don’t ignore the unknown unknowns Don’t rely (too much) on linear cause and effect ComplexityThinking = SystemsThinking++ Jurgen Appelo (idea farmer) 1969-
  • 40. Agenda What is complex systems theory? What is lean software development? Can we define complexity thinking? Can we apply complexity thinking? A new management model 7 principles of Lean software development 5 core practices of Kanban Various lean practices Conclusion
  • 41. View #1: Energize People People are the most important parts of an organization and managers must do all they can to keep people active, creative, and motivated.
  • 42. View #2: Empower Teams Teams can self-organize, and this requires empowerment, authorization, and trust from management.
  • 43. View #3: Align Constraints Self-organization can lead to anything, and it’s therefore necessary to protect people and shared resources, and to give people a clear purpose and defined goals.
  • 44. View #4: Develop Competence Teams cannot achieve these goals if team members aren’t capable enough, and managers must therefore contribute to the development of competence.
  • 45. View #5: Grow Structure Many teams operate within the context of a complex organization, and thus it is important to consider structures that enhance communication .
  • 46. View #6: Improve Everything People, teams, and organizations need to improve continuously to defer failure for as long as possible.
  • 47. The Management 3.0 Model Six organizational views based on complexity thinking
  • 48. Agenda What is complex systems theory? What is lean software development? Can we define complexity thinking? Can we apply complexity thinking? A new management model 7 principles of Lean software development 5 core practices of Kanban Various lean practices Conclusion
  • 50. Principle 1: Eleminate Waste Yes, but… Junk DNA (98%) enables innovation and resilience You cannot measure the unexpected value of waste And thus: There can be value in having waste “lying around” If the cost of waste is low, maybe you should keep it
  • 51. Principle 2: Build Quality In http://www.flickr.com/photos/extranoise/276297674/
  • 52. Principle 2: Build Quality In Yes, but… Preventing errors inhibits learning from errors Limiting ways of usage limits innovation You cannot predict the value of doing things “wrong” And thus: There can be value in being ambiguous & inexplicit
  • 53. Principle 3: Create Knowledge http://www.flickr.com/photos/butterflysha/135659489/
  • 54. Principle 3: Create Knowledge Yes, but… Develop Competence = skill * discipline * knowledge * social connectivity And connectivity has more effect than knowledge Cross, Rob et.al. The Hidden Power of Social Networks. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2004 And thus: Competence in the system is more than knowledge
  • 55. Principle 4: Defer Commitment http://www.flickr.com/photos/zoutedrop/2317065892/
  • 56. Principle 4: Defer Commitment Yes, but… Committing early can be motivating Committing early changes risks and opportunities You cannot predict the results of these changes And thus: There is (sometimes) value in making early choices
  • 57. Principle 5: Deliver Fast http://www.flickr.com/photos/curns/4237949343/
  • 58. Principle 5: Deliver Fast Yes, but… This assumes adaptation as a survival strategy Humans are successful thanks to consciousness Also called an “anticipation device” (Daniel Dennett) Anticipation can (sometimes) outsmart adaptation And thus: Think (briefly), then deliver fast
  • 59. Principle 6: Respect People http://www.flickr.com/photos/fhashemi/44551132/
  • 60. Principle 6: Respect People Yes, but… Energize People = trust * respect * motivation * diversity * creativity Respect is insufficient to instill a “need” for work And thus: People in the system must be energized
  • 61. Principle 7: Optimize theWhole http://www.flickr.com/photos/flatbag74/2884704165/
  • 62. Principle 7: Optimize the Whole Yes, but… Cross-functional teams can be sub-optimizing too “Optimize the whole” invites top-down control A complex system finds its own global optimum through local optimizations and global dependencies And thus: Create locally optimizing and interdependent teams
  • 63. “Missing” in Lean Software Development
  • 64. No guidance on structuring organizations No explicit choice for value networks over hierarchies That’s why Lean is abused in top-down “lean & mean” “Missing” in Lean Software Development
  • 65. Agenda What is complex systems theory? What is lean software development? Can we define complexity thinking? Can we apply complexity thinking? A new management model 7 principles of Lean software development 5 core practices of Kanban Various lean practices Conclusion
  • 66. 1: Visualize the workflow http://www.flickr.com/photos/audreyjm529/235458062/
  • 67. 1:Visualize the workflow Yes, but… “Value stream” and “value chains” suggest a linear flow of value But an organization has many stakeholders, who all want to get value out of their collaboration And thus… Visualize multiple workflows
  • 68. 2: Limit work in progress (WIP) http://www.flickr.com/photos/blumpy/325853852/
  • 69. 2: Limit work in progress (WIP) Yes, but… A book author has an entire book in progress LimitedWIP is just one example of a constraint And thus: A system will self-organize around its constraints Choose constraints to match the workflow
  • 70. 3: Measure and manage flow http://www.flickr.com/photos/chefranden/390872656/
  • 71. 3: Measure and manage flow Yes, but… Leads to sub-optimization when only flow to customers is considered And thus: Measure and manage flow to all stakeholders (customers, suppliers, employees, shareholders, …)
  • 72. 4: Make process policies explicit http://www.flickr.com/photos/moonlightbulb/3323103034/
  • 73. 4: Make process policies explicit Yes, but… Genetic algorithms: a variety of conflicting rules Learning made possible through “credit assignment” And thus: Experiment with rules
  • 74. 5: Use models to suggest improvements http://www.flickr.com/photos/jurvetson/447302275/
  • 75. 5: Use models to suggest improvements Yes, but… All models are wrong, some are useful Beware of “scientific approach” to workflows Banks and casinos also have “scientific approaches” Yet, they have been unpleasantly surprised… And thus: Use complexity thinking to suggest models
  • 79. Agenda What is complex systems theory? What is lean software development? Can we define complexity thinking? Can we apply complexity thinking? A new management model 7 principles of Lean software development 5 core practices of Kanban Various lean practices Conclusion
  • 80. Root Cause Analysis Suggests there is a root cause But often there are non-linear relationships Unclear what is cause and what is effect
  • 81. Kaizen Suggests gradual linear process improvement But systems can get stuck in a local optimum on the fitness landscape Sometimes need for radical change (kaikaku)
  • 82. Optimization Adaptation: looking back (responding) Exploration: looking around (experimenting) Anticipation: looking forward (expecting) We need all three
  • 83. Agenda What is complex systems theory? What is lean software development? Can we define complexity thinking? Can we apply complexity thinking? A new management model 7 principles of Lean software development 5 core practices of Kanban Various lean practices Conclusion
  • 84. I admit, I sometimes apply complexity thinking to blog writing
  • 85. The 1st “danger” of Lean Relying on tools, ignoring social complexity http://kwork.org/stars/snowden/Snowden.pdf
  • 86. The 2nd “danger” of Lean Relying on statistics, ignoring Black Swans http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/taleb08/taleb08_index.html
  • 87. The 3rd “danger” of Lean Relying on cause and effect, ignoring non-linearity
  • 88. The 4th “danger” of Lean Relying on existing structures, customer-demand Ignoring value networks, multiple stakeholders http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/taleb08/taleb08_index.html A D C E B
  • 89. Lean is GREAT! (really, it is) But let’s not stop thinking.
  • 93. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/3.0/ This presentation was inspired by the works of many people, and I cannot possibly list them all. Though I did my very best to attribute all authors of texts and images, and to recognize any copyrights, if you think that anything in this presentation should be changed, added or removed, please contact me at jurgen@noop.nl.