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Doug webber 2030 challenge-gbf2007

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Doug webber 2030 challenge-gbf2007 Doug webber 2030 challenge-gbf2007 Presentation Transcript

  • 2007 Green Building Festival Doug Webber, P.Eng., LEED AP
  • Outline Architecture 2030 Highlight Project: Evergreen at the Brickworks Green Building in North America Closing / Questions
  • Introduction Providing solutions for clients in the development & construction industries. 250+ employees Offices across Canada.
  • Architecture 2030
  • Architecture 2030 • All new buildings, developments & major renovations and at a minimum, an equal amount of existing building area renovated annually, shall achieve the following targets: • 50 % now • 60% in 2010 • 70% in 2015 • 80% in 2020 • 90% in 2025 • Carbon neutral in 2030 (using no fossil fuel GHG emitting energy to operate).
  • On Board
  • 2030 Research • COAL • There are 151 new conventional coal-fired power plants in various stages of development in the US today. • WAL-MART is investing a half billion dollars to reduce the energy consumption and Co2 emissions of their existing buildings by 20% over the next seven years. If every Wal- Mart Supercentre met this target: • The CO2 emissions from only one medium-sized coal-fired power plant in just one month of operation each year, would negate this entire effort.
  • 2030 Research • COAL • By implementing The 2030 Challenge to reduce building energy use by a minimum of 50%, we negate the need for new coal plants.
  • Targets • Energy Intensity for various building types (ekWh/m2) • EPA Target finder where available
  • Toronto Targets • Toronto Average Office Building Intensity: • EPA Energy Star 460 ekWh/m2 • Toronto 50% Target: • 230 ekWh/m2
  • Energy Intensity vs. % MNECB 800 700 600 500 ekWh/m2 400 300 200 100 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 Buildings • Average 33% < MNECB. • Average Design 220 ekWh/m2 = 50% below 2030 baseline.
  • Predicted Energy Performance Predicted values of well designed buildings are on target.
  • Reality Check – Buildings Going in the Wrong Direction 460 440 420 400 Series1 380 360 340 320 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 • 1998 to 2005 Average Office Energy Intensity increasing. • 10% Increase in intensity since 1990 (plus 30% increase in floor area) • Source: Office of Energy Efficiency - Comprehensive Energy Use Database
  • State of Good Practice 2030 Targets We know how to get to the initial target of 50% improvement. But there is little incentive to do so. Does predicted performance represent reality?
  • Project Profile: Evergreen at the Brickworks
  • Exploring the Carbon Neutral Option • Scenarios based on the Architects Alliance Master Plan • MNECB Reference • Master Plan • Ground Source Heat Pumps • Natural Gas Tri-Generation (CHP + Cooling) • Biomass Heating & Cooling • Biomass Tri-Generation (CHP + Cooling) • Renewable Power
  • Capital Cost Relative Capital Costs ($10 ) 3 Renewable Non-Renewable 1870 290 790 720 580 510 510 0 MNECB Master GSHP NG Biom. Biom. Plan Trigen. H&C Trigen
  • Annual Energy Consumption 5 Biomass Energy Consumption Natural Gas (10 eKWh/year) 4 Grid Electric 3 2 6 1 0 MNECB Master GSHP NG Tri- Biom. Biom. Plan gen H&C Trigen
  • Annual Energy Cost 400 Annual Energy Cost ($10) 350 3 Biomass 300 Natural Gas 250 Grid Electric 200 150 100 50 0 MNECB Master GSHP NG Biom. Biom. Plan Trigen. H&C Trigen
  • eCO2 Emissions 100% eCO2 Emissions 42% 44% 35% 28% 8% MNECB Master GSHP NG Biom. Biom. Plan Trigen. H&C Trigen
  • C02 Emissions with Renewable Power 100% eCO2 Emissions 43% 44% 42% 35% 28% 12% 8%3% MNECB Master GSHP NG Biom. Biom. Plan Trigen. H&C Trigen
  • State of Best Practice • Assuming that today’s best practice is 10 LEED Energy Credits and 60% better than MNECB: • All but biomass systems reduce carbon by 55% to 65% meeting the target for 2010, but not 2015 • On-site PV to net zero adds 35% to capital cost ($13M) • Off-site renewables adds 25% to annual bill ($45,000)
  • Green Buildings Green Buildings in North America.
  • Green Buildings in North America • Three Nation Teams • Green Building Scenarios • Valuing Sustainability • Institutional Approaches • Residential Green Buildings
  • Nation Wide Simulation Scenarios Developed • Assumes Rapid Rollout of • Good Practice - 35% < MNECB • and • Best Practice - 60%< MNECB
  • Scenarios - Canada Commercial Renewables required initially to match target • Marbek Energy Consultants, Lawrence Berkeley Labs, Odon de Buen
  • Scenarios - Canada Residential Residential GHG Emissions by Scenario - Canada 100 90 80 70 60 AIA MT CO2 BAU 50 Scenario 40 1990 30 Gap to be filled by 20 Renewables 10 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 • Marbek Energy Consultants, Lawrence Berkeley Labs, Odon de Buen
  • Target is Technically Achievable Major gaps: • Real Data • Motivation We are currently going in the wrong direction
  • This is not the result of incremental change Mind the Gap • Marbek Energy Consultants, Lawrence Berkeley Labs, Odon de Buen
  • The Opportunity and The Challenge Buildings can be a major component of our climate change response. Can we achieve the rate of change necessary? Obstacles and Strategies
  • Overcome Inertia • Strong up-front investments needed • To speed change: • Build capacity • Lower the cost of change • Clinton Climate Change Initiative: • $5B at half the cost of capital
  • Provide Credible Data Star Performer Benchmarking Plan Performance Benchmarks Individual Building Building Sector Performance Action Targets
  • Building Energy Labelling
  • Do the Research Commuting consumes 30% > energy than office buildings 1950 to 1990 – Population growth 90%, urban lands 240%
  • Fix Market Dysfunctions • Put a price on carbon: • Tax shifting • Cap and trade • Rations
  • Fight Short-Termism • Set clear aggressive long-term targets with specific incremental steps -
  • CaGBC Goals • Short & long-term goals • 100,000 buildings & 1 million homes certified by 2015 • 50% reduction in energy and water use demand from 2005 baseline • 50MT reduction in carbon emissions by 2015 • 1/3 towards federal goal of 150MT by 2020 • Zero impact from buildings and communities by 2025
  • Scale is the Issue • US - Apollo Project or Manhattan Project • The Green Draft • 2030 requires 250 home retrofits (to 50% less energy) every day in Ontario Source: NASA
  • Financial Risk
  • • David Hughes, Geological Survey of Canada
  • Contact Information Halsall Associates Limited 2300 Yonge Street, Suite 2300 Toronto, ON M4P 1E4 t. 416 644-4925 e. dwebber@halsall.com w. www.halsall.com