Doug webber 2030 challenge-gbf2007

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Doug webber 2030 challenge-gbf2007

  1. 1. 2007 Green Building Festival Doug Webber, P.Eng., LEED AP
  2. 2. Outline Architecture 2030 Highlight Project: Evergreen at the Brickworks Green Building in North America Closing / Questions
  3. 3. Introduction Providing solutions for clients in the development & construction industries. 250+ employees Offices across Canada.
  4. 4. Architecture 2030
  5. 5. Architecture 2030 • All new buildings, developments & major renovations and at a minimum, an equal amount of existing building area renovated annually, shall achieve the following targets: • 50 % now • 60% in 2010 • 70% in 2015 • 80% in 2020 • 90% in 2025 • Carbon neutral in 2030 (using no fossil fuel GHG emitting energy to operate).
  6. 6. On Board
  7. 7. 2030 Research • COAL • There are 151 new conventional coal-fired power plants in various stages of development in the US today. • WAL-MART is investing a half billion dollars to reduce the energy consumption and Co2 emissions of their existing buildings by 20% over the next seven years. If every Wal- Mart Supercentre met this target: • The CO2 emissions from only one medium-sized coal-fired power plant in just one month of operation each year, would negate this entire effort.
  8. 8. 2030 Research • COAL • By implementing The 2030 Challenge to reduce building energy use by a minimum of 50%, we negate the need for new coal plants.
  9. 9. Targets • Energy Intensity for various building types (ekWh/m2) • EPA Target finder where available
  10. 10. Toronto Targets • Toronto Average Office Building Intensity: • EPA Energy Star 460 ekWh/m2 • Toronto 50% Target: • 230 ekWh/m2
  11. 11. Energy Intensity vs. % MNECB 800 700 600 500 ekWh/m2 400 300 200 100 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 Buildings • Average 33% < MNECB. • Average Design 220 ekWh/m2 = 50% below 2030 baseline.
  12. 12. Predicted Energy Performance Predicted values of well designed buildings are on target.
  13. 13. Reality Check – Buildings Going in the Wrong Direction 460 440 420 400 Series1 380 360 340 320 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 • 1998 to 2005 Average Office Energy Intensity increasing. • 10% Increase in intensity since 1990 (plus 30% increase in floor area) • Source: Office of Energy Efficiency - Comprehensive Energy Use Database
  14. 14. State of Good Practice 2030 Targets We know how to get to the initial target of 50% improvement. But there is little incentive to do so. Does predicted performance represent reality?
  15. 15. Project Profile: Evergreen at the Brickworks
  16. 16. Exploring the Carbon Neutral Option • Scenarios based on the Architects Alliance Master Plan • MNECB Reference • Master Plan • Ground Source Heat Pumps • Natural Gas Tri-Generation (CHP + Cooling) • Biomass Heating & Cooling • Biomass Tri-Generation (CHP + Cooling) • Renewable Power
  17. 17. Capital Cost Relative Capital Costs ($10 ) 3 Renewable Non-Renewable 1870 290 790 720 580 510 510 0 MNECB Master GSHP NG Biom. Biom. Plan Trigen. H&C Trigen
  18. 18. Annual Energy Consumption 5 Biomass Energy Consumption Natural Gas (10 eKWh/year) 4 Grid Electric 3 2 6 1 0 MNECB Master GSHP NG Tri- Biom. Biom. Plan gen H&C Trigen
  19. 19. Annual Energy Cost 400 Annual Energy Cost ($10) 350 3 Biomass 300 Natural Gas 250 Grid Electric 200 150 100 50 0 MNECB Master GSHP NG Biom. Biom. Plan Trigen. H&C Trigen
  20. 20. eCO2 Emissions 100% eCO2 Emissions 42% 44% 35% 28% 8% MNECB Master GSHP NG Biom. Biom. Plan Trigen. H&C Trigen
  21. 21. C02 Emissions with Renewable Power 100% eCO2 Emissions 43% 44% 42% 35% 28% 12% 8%3% MNECB Master GSHP NG Biom. Biom. Plan Trigen. H&C Trigen
  22. 22. State of Best Practice • Assuming that today’s best practice is 10 LEED Energy Credits and 60% better than MNECB: • All but biomass systems reduce carbon by 55% to 65% meeting the target for 2010, but not 2015 • On-site PV to net zero adds 35% to capital cost ($13M) • Off-site renewables adds 25% to annual bill ($45,000)
  23. 23. Green Buildings Green Buildings in North America.
  24. 24. Green Buildings in North America • Three Nation Teams • Green Building Scenarios • Valuing Sustainability • Institutional Approaches • Residential Green Buildings
  25. 25. Nation Wide Simulation Scenarios Developed • Assumes Rapid Rollout of • Good Practice - 35% < MNECB • and • Best Practice - 60%< MNECB
  26. 26. Scenarios - Canada Commercial Renewables required initially to match target • Marbek Energy Consultants, Lawrence Berkeley Labs, Odon de Buen
  27. 27. Scenarios - Canada Residential Residential GHG Emissions by Scenario - Canada 100 90 80 70 60 AIA MT CO2 BAU 50 Scenario 40 1990 30 Gap to be filled by 20 Renewables 10 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 • Marbek Energy Consultants, Lawrence Berkeley Labs, Odon de Buen
  28. 28. Target is Technically Achievable Major gaps: • Real Data • Motivation We are currently going in the wrong direction
  29. 29. This is not the result of incremental change Mind the Gap • Marbek Energy Consultants, Lawrence Berkeley Labs, Odon de Buen
  30. 30. The Opportunity and The Challenge Buildings can be a major component of our climate change response. Can we achieve the rate of change necessary? Obstacles and Strategies
  31. 31. Overcome Inertia • Strong up-front investments needed • To speed change: • Build capacity • Lower the cost of change • Clinton Climate Change Initiative: • $5B at half the cost of capital
  32. 32. Provide Credible Data Star Performer Benchmarking Plan Performance Benchmarks Individual Building Building Sector Performance Action Targets
  33. 33. Building Energy Labelling
  34. 34. Do the Research Commuting consumes 30% > energy than office buildings 1950 to 1990 – Population growth 90%, urban lands 240%
  35. 35. Fix Market Dysfunctions • Put a price on carbon: • Tax shifting • Cap and trade • Rations
  36. 36. Fight Short-Termism • Set clear aggressive long-term targets with specific incremental steps -
  37. 37. CaGBC Goals • Short & long-term goals • 100,000 buildings & 1 million homes certified by 2015 • 50% reduction in energy and water use demand from 2005 baseline • 50MT reduction in carbon emissions by 2015 • 1/3 towards federal goal of 150MT by 2020 • Zero impact from buildings and communities by 2025
  38. 38. Scale is the Issue • US - Apollo Project or Manhattan Project • The Green Draft • 2030 requires 250 home retrofits (to 50% less energy) every day in Ontario Source: NASA
  39. 39. Financial Risk
  40. 40. • David Hughes, Geological Survey of Canada
  41. 41. Contact Information Halsall Associates Limited 2300 Yonge Street, Suite 2300 Toronto, ON M4P 1E4 t. 416 644-4925 e. dwebber@halsall.com w. www.halsall.com

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