Futuring in the year 2100 by Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com
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Futuring in the year 2100 by Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com

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Glen Hiemstra, Founder of Futurist.com, presents a program on Futuring in the year 2100. The presentation was a part of a series taking an early look at the 22nd Century, as a feature of the annual ...

Glen Hiemstra, Founder of Futurist.com, presents a program on Futuring in the year 2100. The presentation was a part of a series taking an early look at the 22nd Century, as a feature of the annual meeting of the World Future Society, Chicago, July 2013. As part of the program Glen solicited input from other professional futurists, a sample of which are presented in the slide deck. [note: slide 34 was a video of Elon Musk receiving the Smithsonian American Ingenuity Award]

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Futuring in the year 2100 by Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com Futuring in the year 2100 by Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com Presentation Transcript

  • what is your image of the future...of futuring?
  • To help prepare this program I polled members of the Association of Professional Futurists as to their views of futuring in 2100. What follows in several slides is a sample of responses. Futuring in 2100 will be more experiential and participatory than it is today. We will try out possible futures in simulations on Holodecks. We, as futurists, will be the facilitators of those experiences. Joyce  Gioia
  • Futuring  will  be  baked  into  human  educa7on  and  2st  century   ci7zens  will  think  in  vastly  more  sophis7cated  ways  about   long  term  implica7ons...Watsonian  power  computers  will     help  explore  complex  physical  issues...crea7ng  new  visions  of   humanity  is  not  something  we’d  willingly  hand  over  to  our   computa7onal  friends...have  learned  how  resistant  people   are  to  giving  up  power.  21st  Century  humans  will  fully   understand  the  power  of  the  future. Joel  Barker
  • Our  view  of  human  nature  is  central  to  our  sense  of   what  futures  will  be  in  2100.  I  think  history  shows   that  people  are  quite  willing  to  give  up  their  power...if   in  exchange  for  greater  comfort,  leisure  and   pleasure...I  suspect  most  of  us  would  gladly  turn  over   our  liber7es  in  exchange  for  Wall-­‐E  style  pampering. Noah  Radford
  • Futuring  in  2100  will  be  ex7nct  as  it  now  exists  -­‐  crude,   prima7ve,  ineffec7ve.  We’ll  have  very  sophis7cated   soOware  doing  predic7ve  analy7cs  and  nuanced   scenarios  using  big  data  in  real  7me...Humans  may  act  as   occasional  prophet  in  the  wilderness  calling  out  Black   Swans... Lee  Shupp
  • In  addi7on  to  Watson-­‐type  computa7on  of  what  21st  Century   people  quaintly  called  “big  data”  the  instant  scenario-­‐izing  of   informa7on  will  be  baked  into  all  our  ac7vi7es,  in  ever  more   immersive  environments.  As  computa7on,  virtual  modeling,   visualiza7on,  gamifica7on  advance  we  are  likely  to  see   “futuring”  across  all  domains  -­‐  retail,  policy,  finance,   healthcare,  educa7on,  management,  personal  development,   child-­‐rearing,  etc. Cecily  Sommers
  • What  remains  of  the  human  race  will  be  s7rring  the  embers  of   the  fire  to  see  what’s  wriWen  in  the  charred  bones  of  dinner. OR,  we’ll  be  so  deep  into  the  post-­‐silicon  bio-­‐age  that   alternate  outcomes  will  be  ar7ficially  evolved  in  sequestered   eco-­‐arenas... OR  it  will  be  a  meme  marketplace  to  see  whose  design  fic7ons   aWract  the  most  viewer-­‐aWen7on  seconds... OR  futuring  will  be  simply  another  elementary  skill...but  this   assumes  we  rescue  our  educa7onal  systems  ...which  seems   more  unlikely  than  that  we’ll  rescue  the  environment. 2100  will  be  different...very  different. (And  no  I  don’t  call  what  I  do  futuring,  or  futurology.) Wendy  Shultz
  • In  2100  traveling  in  space  via  light-­‐speed  vessels  is  very   commonly  affordable  to  middle-­‐class  people...Non-­‐human   occupied  vehicles  can  travel  100  LY  away.  Standard  measures   of  7me,  space,  distance  [have  evolved]. In  2100  the  words  ‘past’,  ‘present’,  future’  will  be  found  in   history  books  explaining  how  previous  people  marked  their   loca7on  in  the  Universe’s  grid  system...languages  will  no   longer  have  past  tense,  present  tense  and  future   tense...instead  space  travelers  communicate  with  each  other   by  expressing  their  ‘space  grid  loca7on’  on  universe   naviga7on  maps. June  Lo
  • All great paths lead us to [the] threshold, but none can guide us across the great divide-- from the creature human to the co-creative human. None can guide us as to how to use the vast new powers given us by science and technology. None of us have been there yet. Barbara Marx Hubbard 7/13/13
  • “If you don’t go far enough back in memory or far enough ahead in hope, your present will be impoverished.” Edward Lindaman
  • “Any  student  of  the  rise  and  fall  of  cultures  cannot  fail  to  be   impressed  by  the  role  played  in  this  historical  succession  by   the  image  of  the  future.  The  rise  and  fall  of  images   precedes  or  accompanies  the  rise  and  fall  of  cultures.  As   long  as  a  society’s  image  is  posi7ve  and  flourishing,  the   flower  of  culture  is  in  full  bloom.  Once  the  image  begins  to   decay  and  lose  its  vitality,  however,  the  culture  does  not   long  survive.” The  Image  of  the  Future,  Fred  Polak,  1961
  • heilbroner, visions of the future...  distant past  150,000 to 300 years ago  people did not imagine material conditions of future would be different  yesterday  300 years ago to 1970’s  future seen as full of unimaginable possibilities for improving human condition at all levels  today  1970’s to now  future seen as dominated by large impersonal forces - science, economics, politics, religion tied to state  humans still believe future will be different, but most likely worse
  • everything possible today was at one time impossible. everything impossible today may at some time in the future be possible. Edward Lindaman Director Program Planning, Apollo
  • heilbroner, visions of the future...  distant past  150,000 to 300 years ago  people did not imagine material conditions of future would be different  yesterday  300 years ago to 1970’s  future seen as full of unimaginable possibilities for improving human condition at all levels  today  1970’s to now  future seen as dominated by large impersonal forces - science, economics, politics, religion tied to state  humans still believe future will be different, but most likely worse
  • • will there be a 2100 for futuring? • who will do the futuring? • what might futuring look like?
  • survival first
  • Consciousness precedes reality, and not the other way around.” President Vaclav Havel Czech Republic
  • effective choice making…
  • technology acceleration
  • connectivity | convergence | 3D nano | bio | info | cogno | robo
  • who will future?
  • Marc Prensky originated “digital native” term FuTURIST•com generations of digital natives digital immigrants gone
  • ...test  is  “168  7mes   faster,  26,000  7mes  less   expensive,  and  over  400   7mes  more  sensi7ve   than  the  current   standard.”  It  costs  $0.03   per  test  and  takes  five   minutes.  The  test  could   also  poten7ally  be  used   to  diagnose  ovarian  and   lung  cancer,  both  of   which  also  produce   abnormal  levels  of   mesothelin. hWp://singularityhub.com/2013/02/25/16-­‐year-­‐old-­‐jack-­‐andraka-­‐invents-­‐innova7ve-­‐cancer-­‐test-­‐using-­‐google-­‐search/
  • what might futuring look like?
  • people of the screen do not accept old limitations... Based  on:  Gerd  Leonhard
  • transhuman intelligence will assist or do forecasting
  • futuring 2100 will involve...  unlocking the power of human intelligence and human imagination  getting bandwidth to the brains of more people  linking minds  getting bandwidth between more brains  living in correct uncertainty  rather than incorrect certainty  connecting the future to the now  applying futuring intelligence to real world needs  leveraging amazement  as in The Toynbee Convector (Bradbury, 1984) people will be thrilled to have made it and ready to go beyond
  • “the future enters into us in order to transform itself in us, long before it happens.” Rainier Maria Rilke
  • thank you for your time for more information www.futurist.com glen@futurist.com twitter.com/glenhiemstra facebook.com/glenhiemstra