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Frostsullivanindonesiaictoutlookfor2012andbeyond 120216210846-phpapp01 Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Frost & Sullivan TMT Practice – Strategy and Business PlanTelecom, Media and Technology Practice Outlook for 2012 and beyond
  • 2. Agenda 1 State of the Industry 2011 2 ICT Outlook 2012 2
  • 3. 2011 State of the Industry: Summary1. The post PC era is here – with mobile dominating every discussion (~ 150 mn smartphones and ~ 5 million tablets)2. Data revenue growth has been robust for most markets; however data deluge has cost challenges3. Rise of mega Platforms – they have hit Telco core e.g. SMS revenues4. Telecom Operators are struggling to find growth in their core business – voice5. Telecom operator margins are declining so profitable data growth is key6. Cloud computing continued to gain momentum in the region with > 40% growth in revenues accruing to public cloud providers7. Social web has truly arrived8. IT spending would grow by around 7-8 percent in the year 2011 with cloud ready architecture, analytics and social media as top of mind concerns9. Fiber deployments in developed countries gained momentum in 2011 early LTE deployments in 201110. Smart TV shipments gained momentum changing the plans of TV service providers11. Mobile marketing grew at a scorching pace 3
  • 4. Agenda 1 State of the Industry 2 ICT Outlook 2012 4
  • 5. #1: Post PC era will transform APAC into the largestmobile internet market Global Trends Asia Pacific Trends Mobile device sales Mobile internet growth ~ 480mn 1250 mn Tablets ~ 380mn 600 mn Netbook ~ 155mn PCs ~ 150mn Netbook Tablets Smartphones PCs Desktop Desktop Smartphones PCs PCs 2011 2011 2011 (e) 2011 (e)• In APAC, mobile devices have overtaken PCs in 2011• ‘Browsing minutes’ to exceed voice minutes by 2012• Mobile internet market lead by China, India and Indonesia will double 5
  • 6. #1: Mobile Platforms hitting critical mass acrosssmartphones and tabletsMass market phase will aggravate the challenges for operators, vendors andenterprises alike Device Driven Market Seeding Mass Market Phase Networked Society growth Upto 2008 2011- 2015 2015+ 2009-11 Video driving the growth Wide penetration of • More mobile BB of mobile date traffic devices and networks • Initial seeding to devices than fixed BB monetize 3G devices Data Traffic per user Cross industry business networks (Moore’s Law): Doubling models • Packet data exceeded nearly every 18 months • Flat rate as a voice data on mobile Information ubiquity demand simulation networks in 2010 Smartphone is mass mechanism market • Apps are the new internet 80% of internet users to have mobile internet IT needs to support such devices Initial creation of new business models – healthcare, automotive 6
  • 7. #2: Platform play across the ICT sector would be thecritical value generator3 ecosystems are converging in the mobile computing ecosystem with diverseapproaches 1990s 2000s 2010s 2015 2020s Collision PhaseConvergence Phase Computing Client-Server PC as PC as Cloud Cycle Computing Workhorse Entertainme Computing Web nt/Personaliz OS ed Laptops/Netboo ks Tablets Mobile Mobile 2G Based Fixed BBSmartphone Mobile Cloud Customized Cycle Comm Growth s internet Tablets/phone s Apps Soft SIMs Internet Cycle Email/ Web Web Web 3.0 + 2.0 Aug Reality Digitization – Digital Video overtook Mobile devices Graph not to scale content overtook analog static pages sold> Fixed content devices 7
  • 8. #2: Platform play across the ICT sector would be thecritical value generatorBy 2015 there will 2-3 platform choices for each need and 2-3 overall integrated platforms.Microsoft acquired Skype in 2011 and we can expect to see more action in the coming year.In Asia Pacific, SKT re-organized to SKT and SK Planet to focus on platform businessglobally. Facebook Apple’s platform Google platform platform Communication Inhouse? ?? Skype Platforms (Acquired) Entertainment Itunes /app Youtube Xbox/PS3 Platforms store Hulu ? Information Platforms Google Microsoft? (monetized by ads) NFC NFC PayPal Commerce Platforms enablement enablement Operator alliance Participation/SNS Google + Platforms Twitter? Experience Platforms iOS RIM (Acquired?) Android – OS + Web 8
  • 9. #3: Fixed Broadband and 3G/LTE will provide optionsfor high speed access Fixed Broadband – Asia Pacific 3G/LTE – Asia Pacific 1.25 bn 375mn 212mn 466mn 2011(e) 2016(f) 2016(f) 2011(e)• The fixed broadband market continues to grow in Asia Pacific region despite of the heavy penetration of 3G/LTE.• MBB through dongles will touch 41mn in 2011 and reach around 100mn by 2014 9
  • 10. #3: Fixed Broadband and 3G/LTE will provide optionsfor high speed access In general, LTE technology enables mobile operators in mature markets to command a significant price premium over their existing 3G services. Loose correlation between advertised Most have increased data volume caps with introduction of service. speed and premium 90% 80% CSL (Hong Aggressive pricing Kong), 21, 84.3% charging large 4G Premium over 3G (in %) 70% Tele2 premiums for LTE (Sweden), 80, 74.2% service 60% 50% Vodafone Conservative pricing: (Germany), 21.6, 42.9 charging a premium T-Mobile 40% for LTE but allowing % (Germany), 42.2, 37.0 TeliaSonera for reduction due to 30% % (Sweden), 80, 25.1% churn and competition 20% NTT DoCoMo (Japan), 37.5, 8.7% Telenor Verizon Wireless (Sweden), 80, 14.3% Strategic pricing: 10% charging based on (USA), 8.5, 0.0% specific constraints like 0% network quality and 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 expansionary plans Average LTE Speed (in Mbps)Note: MetroPCS has been omitted in thechart as it has never offered 3G services. 10
  • 11. #4: “Internet of Things” will further accelerate as more andmore devices, equipment and gadgets get connected creatingopportunities for value creation and new business models The Home Network Mobility on steroids Internet of things ‘S’ Citizen ‘S’ Business ‘S’ City Planning ‘S’ Buildings ‘S’ Mobility ‘S’ Energy • 8-10 Devices per home • 5-6 Devices per individual • 500 per sq km • Universal Remote • Touch as the default input • Smart cities mechanism 6 bn 30 bn 44 bn• Rapid commercialization of enabling technologies• Demand for such services in select sectors driven by productivity requirements• Emergence of early business models to monetize the opportunity 11
  • 12. #5: Cloud computing is set to become mainstream in AsiaPacific region. Platform-as-a-service (PaaS) is set to be thenew battleground in the cloud computing industryHybrid clouds lead the way; Cloud adoption growing at a rapid pace 6,000 5,807 16% 5,000 3% 4,284 4,000 US$ millions 71% 29% 3,132 3,000 10% 2,224 2,000 1,575 Not adopted yet Public cloud Private cloud Hybrid cloud 1,124 1,000NoteSurvey done with IT Managers and CIOs in 0Australia, Hong Kong, China, India, Singapore 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015and Malaysia in Q2 2011. 64% with >500employees and 36% with 200 to 499employees. APEJ Cloud Computing is market expected to grow at 39% for the 2010- 2010- 2015 period. 12
  • 13. #5 Platform-as-a-service (PaaS) is set to be the newbattleground in the cloud computing industry The cloud value chain will disintegrate and consolidate later Yr1 Yr7 Current View (2010) Interim View (2011-12) End game Software Software Reseller Reseller Device Presentation SaaS Application Management Tenancy Managers Preferred PaaS partnershi 2-3 end ps of SPs Platform to end with cloud software ( players Brokers/Aggregators retail model) IaaS Synchronization Hosters/Infrastructure Source: Frost & Sullivan 13
  • 14. #6: The world of TV is going to change forever – click for1000 channelsSmart TV, Social TV and internet video will transform TV TV gets social and viral TV becomes an app Free flow of internet video and broadcast video 14
  • 15. #7: Big Data and Analytics will see reaching the chasm in2012 and get deployed through variety of platforms and beenabled by emerging technologiesData is expected to increase dramatically over the next decade; Data from machinecommunication and IOT is expected to exceed social media in the next half decade Contextual Mining Growth Areas @ Analytics Queries, Network Reporting, analytics, Operations performan Research ce & Advance analytics, Utilization CRM analytics, Data warehouse generation Organization financial / Big strategy analytics In-line and predictive analytics Data Sentiment Move more towards cloud Industry Analysis & Specific Text Solution Analytics Security 15
  • 16. #8: Enterprise communications would become richer, morecollaborative and increasingly move towards the cloud Improving Declining Telecom Infrastructure Costs Rich Communications - Pervasive video Shift from Capex Increasing - Context & presence aware to Opex GlobalizationConsumerization Generation Yof IT Collaborative Cloud workforce - Native and new Communications - Conferencing - ESN 16
  • 17. #9: Telco transformation will evolveTelecom operators need to look at revenue growth and profitability growth Telecom Transformation Services/Business Network Customer Mgmt Organizational Transformation Transformation Transformation Transformation Protect/ New Revenues Reduce cost per bit Increase agility Be ready • Enterprise ICT • Segmentation of • Faster rollout of • Process re-engineering Services mobile broadband services • Cloud • Knowledge acquisition • Data Centers • Demand and pricing • Customer centricity • Mgd services management • Metric definition • Unified comms • Automation/ IT Factory • Migration to LTE • Appifying Services • Backhaul optimization • Devices • IP Migration 17
  • 18. #9 Telcos should be a pragmatic pipe and invest effectivelyTelecom operators need to look at revenue growth and profitability growth Smart Pipe Strategy Dumb Pipe Strategy People reward difficult complex behavior If you are so smart , why aren’t you rich ? more than simple behavior, but simple -Nicholas Taleib, The Black Swan behavior is more effective - Warren Buffet Pragmatic Pipe 18
  • 19. #9: Consumer’s communication behaviour is changingCommunication doesn’t mean voice and SMS any more 19
  • 20. #9: Network transformation is key to achieve the ambitionsof a pragmatic pipeMetamorphosis of networks – Small is Big Small Cells– rapid scaling of sites Sharing • Light Radio pioneered by ALU, HP and • Active sharing Freescale shows how SDR, VLSI and smart power management will change the scale and • All – IP networks scope of BTS • Antenna collapsed into the cell – the cube can be as small as 10 cms Femtos More of the same • USB drive form factor for • Spectrum refarming femtos • Hetnet • Femtos can be added to other devices like gateways • Offloads 20
  • 21. #10: Digital Engagement will change marketing Gamification So-Lo-Mo Mobile marketing 21
  • 22. #11: Security will be the Achilles Heel Huge security issues – in every data that is shared IBM : No passwords by 2016 22
  • 23. #12: ICT as an enabler will continue to gain momentum astelcos, SIs, ISVs etc. move beyond pure ICT industry todrive growth, value and margins in the future. Urban Planning Healthcare Automotive SMART LIVING Electric Vehicles SMART PUBLIC SPACE Financial Services Retail ***** Virtual Shopping Consumer Electronics Energy Biotechnology From 2D to 3D HDTV Morphing Solar PV Cells Travelling Wave Reactor (TWR) 23
  • 24. #13: World of flexible materials- Sneak preview for 2013 24
  • 25. Summary Till 2010 Till 2020 80 5 Growth in Penetration connected 6 0.9 devices Connected devices (bn) Connections (bn) Explosive 4-5% >12% Mature Growth growth Telecom Acquisition focused Smart enabler Telecom inside Outside 25
  • 26. Thank YouGlobal Growth Partnership Company 26