A presentation on future horizons: Pastoralism and climate change in Ethopia? by Adrian Cullis

1. Future horizons:
Pastoralism and climate change in Ethopia?
Agriculture Knowledge Learning
Documentation and Policy (AKLDP)
Project

2. Ethiopia’s pastoral areas
 60% of land area
 15 million people
 50% of food and income from
livestock
 Adaptive livelihood – mobility
maintains livestock productivity and
avoids rangeland degradation
 Pastoralism out-performs ranching.
 TEV estimated at US$1.5 billion.
 Exports US$350 million to Middle East
(HoA livestock sales US$1 billion)
 Contrasting pastoral narratives:
increasing livestock sales v
humanitarian crisis linked to climate
change

3. Pastoralism and climate change
Changing weather and climate:
 IISD (2009) and HRF proposals (2010-12): increasing drought
frequency and unprecedented climate change
What science tells us:
 Rainfall data from 134 stations over 42 years ‘failed to see
significant changes’ driven by climate change (Cheung et al,
2008)*
 Mean temperatures projected to increase by 1.1 - 3.1°C by 2060
 Lack of consistency across models regarding changes in rainfall
from +/- 20% according to region and season
 Consensus around:
 weaker belg (spring rains) 2010-2039 and an increase in Oct–Dec rains in the
southern rangelands to 2060
 increase in total rainfall that falls in ‘heavy’ events, with changes ranging
from ‐1 to +18%
(Climate Smart Initiative, 2013)

4. Drought impact trends
Horn of Africa Drought – 2011
 250,000 children died in Somalia
 Cost to Ethiopia US$ 850 million
 Significant increase in drop-outs
 Drought affects vulnerability
However:
 Transitioning households not new
 Cattle losses 1980-1997 were 60% in
poor and 25% in middle/ wealthy
households (Desta, 1999)*
 Wealthy households lose more animals
but retain a nucleus herd to recover
(Coppock, 1994)*. Resilience!
 Wealthy households move their
animals more
Which photo was taken first?

5. Pastoral livelihood trends
‘Human population growth, drought, inappropriate water development, land
appropriation, peri-urban influences and even livestock commercialization
have reportedly contributed to an increased pauperization, wealth
stratification and cultural alienation
of pastoralists’
(Coppock, 1994)*

6. Moving up or moving out?*
Issa Somali Shinile, Somali Region
(Kassahun et al, 2008)*
 Oral history - 30 yrs before and after
the 1974 drought
 Wealthy – accumulate livestock
 Medium wealth group - unchanged
 Below medium - collapse in livestock;
transition to poor and very poor
 Changes in livestock species - in
particular decline in cattle and increase
in camels and sheep
 Social and cultural change make return
to pastoralism difficult

7. Growth, destitution and commercialisation*
Wealthy
Livestock
holdings/person
+++++
Number of people
+
Medium wealth
Livestock
holdings/person
+++
Number of people
++
Poor
Livestock
holdings/person
+
Number of people
++++
Destitute
Livestock
holdings/person
-
Number of people
+++
Capacity to
respond to
increasing market
demand for
livestock
Purchasing power
Capacity to access
or control
decreasing grazing
and water
resources
Capacity to
withstand drought
and rebuild herds
Commercialization
Moving Up
Positive feedback loops –
increasing assets,
increasing influence and
capacities
Moving Out
Negative feedback loops –
decreasing assets,
decreasing influence and
capacities
Long-term ‘constants’
• Rainfall variability and drought
• Conflict

8. Conclusions
 Livelihood trends not new and mirrored elsewhere including UK dairy sector
 Next generation pastoral policies must strengthen sustainable pastoral
systems, not accelerate commercialization; and assist households in
transition
 Donors must make flexible funding available for innovative drylands resilience
work that mitigates drought impact and prepares for climate change
 Role of civil society is crucial to strengthen the evidence-base
* Moving Up or Moving Out? Commercialization,
growth and destitution, Catley and Aklilu ;
In Pastoralism and Development in Africa (2013)
Photo credits: Kelley Lynch/Save the
Children US