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When good just isn’t good enough
- Raising the bar
APM North East of Scotland
AGM 25th
June 2013
Chris Bird – Operations Director for Endeavour Energy
Agenda
o The challenges of achieving world class delivery
- global trends, project model and predictive analytics
Christopher Bird
Endeavour Energy
o Background on delivering world class projects
o Challenges in the market place
o Creating a world class model
o Theory into practice – research program
o Conclusions
Agenda
Hummingbird
First round FPSO in North Sea
and the lowest operating cost
in North Sea
F3-FA Self installation / re-useable platform
• Largest self installing
platform in the world
• Completely new design
with gas processing to
export specification
• Several new patents
• Benchmarked top 10%
cost base
YouTube – Mega rigs oil and gas UK
Global outlook and the challenges ahead (1)
 Energy sector capex spend 2012 – 2035 *International Energy agency
– Estimated $38 trillion to meet security of supply
 Oil and gas capex sector spend 2001 – 2012 *Schlumberger Business Consulting
– 2001 estimated spend $125 billion ( 50 - $1b+ projects per year )
– 2012 estimated spend $500 billion to $600 billion ( 200 - £1b+ projects per year )
– Fourfold increase in expenditure in last 10 years
– Forward expenditure $600 billion plus per year
 Oil and gas capex increases from 2011 – 2012
– Independent Oil and Gas companies + 21% ( 15% of market spend )
– National Oil and Gas companies + 15% ( 50% of market spend )
– Integrated Oil and Gas companies + 8% ( 35% of market spend )
Global outlook and the challenges ahead (2)
 Project performance ( % of large projects overruns > 50%)
– 1997 10%
– 2005 15%
– 2011 28%
– 2015 Predicted to be even worse
– Today only 30% of projects fully meet customers’ expectations
 Key Issues to consider
– Global business environment is getting more challenging
– Projects are becoming more complex
– People are becoming the bottleneck rather than access to capital
– Supply chain is stretched in many areas
– Major change in businesses increases risk of failures
High level trends Capital Cost Inflation
Source:WoodmacUpstreamInsightNov2012
Report on causes of capital project issues
Share of projects with >50% budget overruns
E&P Capex projects have significant
overruns
Trends of projects with >50% budget overruns
Key causes of capital project issues:
(relative issue weight (%) given)
Key concern areas:
•Resources
•Technical Challenges
•Governance
Key concern areas:
•Resources
•Technical Challenges
•Governance
Schlumberger Business Consulting Report
Key causes of project issues
Key concern areas:
•Risk Management
•Performance Management
•Resources
•Knowledge Management
Key concern areas:
•Risk Management
•Performance Management
•Resources
•Knowledge Management
Booz, Allen and Hamilton Report
E&P operators verses suppliers views
UKCS – Semisubmersible Rig Rates
 UK semis broken $400k barrier – back at 2008 heights
 Rates risen $150k/d since mid-2011
Global outlook / challenges
Business context
Project key issues
Closing the gap
Execution
The Key Challenges in Project Management
Small failures in projects are due to the engineers, big failures in projects are due to the
business
External environment
Internal Environment
Action
Communication
Risk
Mgt
Performance
Mgt
Resource
Mgt
Knowledge
Mgt
Review
• People
• Tech
challenges
• Governance
• Stakeholders
• Supply chain
• Processes
• People
• Tech
challenges
• Governance
• Stakeholders
• Supply chain
• Processes
Schlumberger Business Consulting Report
Booz, Allen and Hamilton Report
Project Definition 1
Kick –off
Framing
Alignment
FID decision
Clear definition
Adding value 6
Innovation / novel
solutions 4
Engineering
excellence 5
Learning
organisation 6
Controls
Preparation /Planning 7
Risk management 8
Interface management
9
Performance
management 10
Contractor
management 11
Organisation 2
Leadership 3
People
Accountability 3
Incentives
Capability across
the business
Governance 12
Key standards 13
Benchmarking 14
Independent
assurance 15
Clear framework
Outcomes 16
Cost / Time
Quality / Value
Expectations met
Reputation
HSE
World class capital project delivery model
To achieve world class
project performance,
excellence must be
achieved in each of the six
elements and 16 sub
elements
Fits with APM BoK
Fits with BS 6079
• Reduce base line estimate
• Reduce standard deviation
• Meet customer expectations
• Achieve operational excellence
• Externally benchmarked
• Minimise regret costs
• Maintain our reputation
Future priorities for World class performance
• A shared and systematic way of developing and
delivering projects.
• WP1 Standardisation / Eng. excellence
• Relentless focus at the development phase (pre-
FID)
• WP2 Definition phase
• A fully capable team engaged at the right time
• WP3 Organisation / resources
• Effective contractor, supplier and stakeholder
management
• WP4 Supply chain / partnerships
• Robust planning and risk management
• WP5 Planning and risk
• Benchmarking, reporting and assurance
• WP6 Governance / assurance
• A shared and systematic way of developing and
delivering projects.
• WP1 Standardisation / Eng. excellence
• Relentless focus at the development phase (pre-
FID)
• WP2 Definition phase
• A fully capable team engaged at the right time
• WP3 Organisation / resources
• Effective contractor, supplier and stakeholder
management
• WP4 Supply chain / partnerships
• Robust planning and risk management
• WP5 Planning and risk
• Benchmarking, reporting and assurance
• WP6 Governance / assurance
• Cost & time
• Quality & value
• Operability
• Expectations met
• Reputation
• Health, safety and environment
• Cost & time
• Quality & value
• Operability
• Expectations met
• Reputation
• Health, safety and environment
6 key priorities
“Excellence in each of these areas will enable delivery in world class
performance”
Outcomes
Team competency, capability and capacity
 Competency assessment completed on 70
professionals with results validated
externally.
 No significant inconsistency between level
of individual and role requirement.
 Whilst development areas for Upstream
and Renewables differ, broad areas for
improvement are:
 Technical
– Marketing and sales, handover and close out, value
management tools, EVM, value engineering
 Contextual
– Governance, Sponsorship,
 Behavioural
– Communication, Conflict management, Project
Leadership
 Development plan being established.14
Upstream Renewables
Level A 3 1
Level B 7 4
Level C 12 11
Level D 15 12
Level E 5 0
Total 42 28
Output from Competency Assessment
Contractor and Supplier Management
Linepipe
Umbilicals
Pipelay, IRM
etc
Subsea
Engineering
Valves
Controls
Systems
key
Personnel
Managing
contractor
Trees
Wells
Supply Chain strategy
Focus on contractor management
Focus on relationship management
Focus on performance
Key Criteria
1. Beat the market
2. Commitment at top level
3. Relationships top to bottom
4. Trust both ways
5. Understanding of the business
Assist
Advice
Anticipation
Researching predictive analytics to improve future project success
Short term actions
 Consultancy
 Knowledge Transfer Partnerships (1-3 years): collaboration between a
university, industrial partners and a graduate working on a company
project
Long-term project plan
 Commissioned Research
– Research projects
– Doctoral Research (EngD or PhD)
 Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) responsive
mode or knowledge transfer proposals (priority needs to be raised)
 Funds from Department of Energy and Climate Change or TSB (need to be
lobbied for)
 Engage industrial partners
Research plan - way forward
P3L energy – Portfolio, program and project leadership
1.Benchmarking – WP6
2.Development, training and competency – WP3
3.Supply chain strategy and management – WP4
4.Knowledge management and data storage – WP2
5.Organisation development – WP3
6.Project Governance and verification – WP2 / WP6
7.Project management resources – WP3
8.IT/IS/IM development and support services – WP1
9.Research and development – best practices and new methods WP1 -6
Project Management partnership model
Conclusions
1. The business environment to get projects delivered within customers’ expectations is
going to become more challenging – we need a new approach
2. With 30% of large projects overrunning by over 50% and over 70% of all projects failing
to meet customers’ expectations we do need to take another look at how we deliver
capital projects in the wider sense, considering how we manage the business as well as
the project – Integrating with the business
3. The biggest issue is access to the right level of resources with the right competency,
capability and capacity to deliver effectively – Being an attractive employer
4. We need to look at potential future trends and ensure that we have the best strategy for
the supply chain from a contractor management and relationship management
perspective – Being an attractive buyer
5. Where it really counts is how we work together harnessing the power of teams to deliver
both pioneering spirit and high performance in the development phase

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Predicting the future - increasing success

  • 1. When good just isn’t good enough - Raising the bar APM North East of Scotland AGM 25th June 2013 Chris Bird – Operations Director for Endeavour Energy
  • 2. Agenda o The challenges of achieving world class delivery - global trends, project model and predictive analytics Christopher Bird Endeavour Energy o Background on delivering world class projects o Challenges in the market place o Creating a world class model o Theory into practice – research program o Conclusions Agenda
  • 3. Hummingbird First round FPSO in North Sea and the lowest operating cost in North Sea
  • 4. F3-FA Self installation / re-useable platform • Largest self installing platform in the world • Completely new design with gas processing to export specification • Several new patents • Benchmarked top 10% cost base YouTube – Mega rigs oil and gas UK
  • 5. Global outlook and the challenges ahead (1)  Energy sector capex spend 2012 – 2035 *International Energy agency – Estimated $38 trillion to meet security of supply  Oil and gas capex sector spend 2001 – 2012 *Schlumberger Business Consulting – 2001 estimated spend $125 billion ( 50 - $1b+ projects per year ) – 2012 estimated spend $500 billion to $600 billion ( 200 - £1b+ projects per year ) – Fourfold increase in expenditure in last 10 years – Forward expenditure $600 billion plus per year  Oil and gas capex increases from 2011 – 2012 – Independent Oil and Gas companies + 21% ( 15% of market spend ) – National Oil and Gas companies + 15% ( 50% of market spend ) – Integrated Oil and Gas companies + 8% ( 35% of market spend )
  • 6. Global outlook and the challenges ahead (2)  Project performance ( % of large projects overruns > 50%) – 1997 10% – 2005 15% – 2011 28% – 2015 Predicted to be even worse – Today only 30% of projects fully meet customers’ expectations  Key Issues to consider – Global business environment is getting more challenging – Projects are becoming more complex – People are becoming the bottleneck rather than access to capital – Supply chain is stretched in many areas – Major change in businesses increases risk of failures
  • 7. High level trends Capital Cost Inflation Source:WoodmacUpstreamInsightNov2012
  • 8. Report on causes of capital project issues Share of projects with >50% budget overruns E&P Capex projects have significant overruns Trends of projects with >50% budget overruns Key causes of capital project issues: (relative issue weight (%) given) Key concern areas: •Resources •Technical Challenges •Governance Key concern areas: •Resources •Technical Challenges •Governance Schlumberger Business Consulting Report Key causes of project issues
  • 9. Key concern areas: •Risk Management •Performance Management •Resources •Knowledge Management Key concern areas: •Risk Management •Performance Management •Resources •Knowledge Management Booz, Allen and Hamilton Report E&P operators verses suppliers views
  • 10. UKCS – Semisubmersible Rig Rates  UK semis broken $400k barrier – back at 2008 heights  Rates risen $150k/d since mid-2011
  • 11. Global outlook / challenges Business context Project key issues Closing the gap Execution The Key Challenges in Project Management Small failures in projects are due to the engineers, big failures in projects are due to the business External environment Internal Environment Action Communication Risk Mgt Performance Mgt Resource Mgt Knowledge Mgt Review • People • Tech challenges • Governance • Stakeholders • Supply chain • Processes • People • Tech challenges • Governance • Stakeholders • Supply chain • Processes Schlumberger Business Consulting Report Booz, Allen and Hamilton Report
  • 12. Project Definition 1 Kick –off Framing Alignment FID decision Clear definition Adding value 6 Innovation / novel solutions 4 Engineering excellence 5 Learning organisation 6 Controls Preparation /Planning 7 Risk management 8 Interface management 9 Performance management 10 Contractor management 11 Organisation 2 Leadership 3 People Accountability 3 Incentives Capability across the business Governance 12 Key standards 13 Benchmarking 14 Independent assurance 15 Clear framework Outcomes 16 Cost / Time Quality / Value Expectations met Reputation HSE World class capital project delivery model To achieve world class project performance, excellence must be achieved in each of the six elements and 16 sub elements Fits with APM BoK Fits with BS 6079 • Reduce base line estimate • Reduce standard deviation • Meet customer expectations • Achieve operational excellence • Externally benchmarked • Minimise regret costs • Maintain our reputation
  • 13. Future priorities for World class performance • A shared and systematic way of developing and delivering projects. • WP1 Standardisation / Eng. excellence • Relentless focus at the development phase (pre- FID) • WP2 Definition phase • A fully capable team engaged at the right time • WP3 Organisation / resources • Effective contractor, supplier and stakeholder management • WP4 Supply chain / partnerships • Robust planning and risk management • WP5 Planning and risk • Benchmarking, reporting and assurance • WP6 Governance / assurance • A shared and systematic way of developing and delivering projects. • WP1 Standardisation / Eng. excellence • Relentless focus at the development phase (pre- FID) • WP2 Definition phase • A fully capable team engaged at the right time • WP3 Organisation / resources • Effective contractor, supplier and stakeholder management • WP4 Supply chain / partnerships • Robust planning and risk management • WP5 Planning and risk • Benchmarking, reporting and assurance • WP6 Governance / assurance • Cost & time • Quality & value • Operability • Expectations met • Reputation • Health, safety and environment • Cost & time • Quality & value • Operability • Expectations met • Reputation • Health, safety and environment 6 key priorities “Excellence in each of these areas will enable delivery in world class performance” Outcomes
  • 14. Team competency, capability and capacity  Competency assessment completed on 70 professionals with results validated externally.  No significant inconsistency between level of individual and role requirement.  Whilst development areas for Upstream and Renewables differ, broad areas for improvement are:  Technical – Marketing and sales, handover and close out, value management tools, EVM, value engineering  Contextual – Governance, Sponsorship,  Behavioural – Communication, Conflict management, Project Leadership  Development plan being established.14 Upstream Renewables Level A 3 1 Level B 7 4 Level C 12 11 Level D 15 12 Level E 5 0 Total 42 28 Output from Competency Assessment
  • 15. Contractor and Supplier Management Linepipe Umbilicals Pipelay, IRM etc Subsea Engineering Valves Controls Systems key Personnel Managing contractor Trees Wells Supply Chain strategy Focus on contractor management Focus on relationship management Focus on performance Key Criteria 1. Beat the market 2. Commitment at top level 3. Relationships top to bottom 4. Trust both ways 5. Understanding of the business Assist Advice Anticipation
  • 16. Researching predictive analytics to improve future project success Short term actions  Consultancy  Knowledge Transfer Partnerships (1-3 years): collaboration between a university, industrial partners and a graduate working on a company project Long-term project plan  Commissioned Research – Research projects – Doctoral Research (EngD or PhD)  Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) responsive mode or knowledge transfer proposals (priority needs to be raised)  Funds from Department of Energy and Climate Change or TSB (need to be lobbied for)  Engage industrial partners Research plan - way forward
  • 17. P3L energy – Portfolio, program and project leadership 1.Benchmarking – WP6 2.Development, training and competency – WP3 3.Supply chain strategy and management – WP4 4.Knowledge management and data storage – WP2 5.Organisation development – WP3 6.Project Governance and verification – WP2 / WP6 7.Project management resources – WP3 8.IT/IS/IM development and support services – WP1 9.Research and development – best practices and new methods WP1 -6 Project Management partnership model
  • 18. Conclusions 1. The business environment to get projects delivered within customers’ expectations is going to become more challenging – we need a new approach 2. With 30% of large projects overrunning by over 50% and over 70% of all projects failing to meet customers’ expectations we do need to take another look at how we deliver capital projects in the wider sense, considering how we manage the business as well as the project – Integrating with the business 3. The biggest issue is access to the right level of resources with the right competency, capability and capacity to deliver effectively – Being an attractive employer 4. We need to look at potential future trends and ensure that we have the best strategy for the supply chain from a contractor management and relationship management perspective – Being an attractive buyer 5. Where it really counts is how we work together harnessing the power of teams to deliver both pioneering spirit and high performance in the development phase