2. Changes and Challenges
TELECOMM IS BECOMING MOBILE MOBILE IS BECOMING DATA DATA IS BECOMING VIDEO VIDEO IS BECOMING SOCIAL
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Smartphones
Tablets
Netbooks
Notebooks
Desktops
Source: Morgan Stanley & Nomura 2012
WorldDeviceShipments(Millions)
Source: Ericsson 2013
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
1000
1800
Voice
Data
Total(UL+DL)traffic(PetaBytes)
Source: Cisco VNI 2012
12
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
6
Mobile File Sharing
Mobile M2M
Mobile Web/Data
Mobile Video
Exabytespermonth
In 2016, Social Newtorking will be second
highest penetrated consumer mobile service
with 2, 4 billion users โ 53% of consumer
mobile users - Cisco 2012
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
10
6
LTE
UMTS/HSPA
GSM;EDGE
TD-SCDMA
CDMA
Other
WorldMobileSub.(Billions)
Source: Ericsson 2012
Voice
Centric
Data
Centric
Traffic
Reveue
1
2 3 4
5
RAPID LIFE CYCLE M2M, NEW DEVICES & APPS. CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE TRAFFIC & REVENUE DECOUPLING
3. Changes and Challenges
ITU-R M.2078 projection for the global spectrum
requirements in order to accomplish the IMT-2000
future development, IMT-Advanced, in 2020.
531
MHz
749
MHz
971
MHz
749
MHz
557
MHz
723
MHz
997
MHz
723
MHz
587
MHz
693
MHz
1027
MHz
693
MHz
Region 1 Region 2 Region 3
MORE SPECTRUM NEW TECHNOLOGY SPLIT CELL
๐ช ๐๐๐ โค ๐ฉ(๐ฏ๐) โ ๐๐๐ ๐ ๐ + ๐บ๐ฐ๐ต๐น
Smallcells
Heterogeneous Network
hnm
h21
h12
h11
๏ผ Mobile operation needs spectrum below 6 GHz,
but there is no enough around world.
๏ผ Interference with exiting services: cleanup cost,
interference mitigation
๏ผ High spectrum cost: The average license cost in
new spectrum auctions ranges around 100-700
million of Reais per 10 MHz FDD block
๏ผ Spectrum Refarming
๏ผ Spectral Efficiency
๏ผ New infrastructure investment
๏ผ Technology life cycle and adoption
๏ผ Market Scale
๏ผ New site legal barriers
๏ผ Tax barriers
๏ผ New site investment
๏ผ Interference control and mitigation
๏ผ Backhaul capillarity
MAIN BARRIERS
Carrier Aggregation
High Order MIMO
Cell Site Densification
4. Equation:
Data
Voice
2G (GSM, GPRS, EDGE)
3G (UMTS, HSPA+)
900 MHz (B8)
1800 MHz (B3)
2100 MHz (B1)
850 MHz (B5)
The Mobile Operation Planning involves the assessment of the complex equation:
Service (demand characteristics for voice and data) vs Technology (2G, 3G and 4G or otherwise) vs Spectrum
(900, 1800, 2100, 2600 MHz or otherwise), where should seek cost optimization not only present but future
disruptive scenario with lack of fundamental resource: spectrum.
Service Technology Spectrum
2600 MHz (B7)
700 MHz (B28)
450 MHz (B31)
4G (LTE)
CDMA/TDMA
Technology Life Cycle
Ecosystem
Total Cost Ownership
Customer Experience
Terminal Penetration & Cost
Capacity&Spectral Efficiency
Service Support
Level of Terminal Subsidy
License & Network Cost
License Obligation
Ecosystem
Bandwidth Limitation
Coverage & Capacity
Interference
Level of Terminal Subsidy
Constrains &
Decision Criteria
8. 0,0 Mbps/km2
300,0 Mbps/km2
600,0 Mbps/km2
900,0 Mbps/km2
0,3 km0,4 km0,5 km0,6 km0,7 km
2014
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Demands
๏ฑ
2015
Capacities ๏ต
Cat 3
(initial)Cat 4
Cat 3
+ 5 MHz
Cat 3
+ 10 MHzCA
Coverage
A
C BDE
250%
100%
73%
24%
F
Capacity, Technology & Spectrum Management
DATA: 4G CASE VOICE: 2G/3G CASE
Associated TCO ๏ต TC1TC2TC3TC4TC5
700 Erl/km2
800 Erl/km2
900 Erl/km2
1000 Erl/km2
0,3 km0,4 km0,5 km0,6 km0,7 km
Coverage
2014
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Demands
๏ฑ
2015
Capacities ๏ต
2G (100 T)
3G (1 C)
2G (50 T)
3G (2 C)
2G (25 T/V)
3G (2 C)3G (3 C)
A
C
DE B
- 5 MHz
- 5 MHz
27%
Associated TCO ๏ต TC1TC2TC3TC4
0,0 Mbps/km2
300,0 Mbps/km2
600,0 Mbps/km2
900,0 Mbps/km2
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Demand Capacity
A
G
H
F
Cat 3
+ 5 MHz
Cat 3
+ 10 MHz
CA
Cat 3
(initial)
0 Erl/km2
300 Erl/km2
600 Erl/km2
900 Erl/km2
1200 Erl/km2
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Demand Capacity
A
C
D
2G (100 T)
3G (1 C)
2G (50 T)
3G (2 C)
- 5 MHz
2G (25 T/V)
3G (3 C)
- 10 MHz
G
H
9. Spectral Efficiency
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
200kHz
25 TRX
3,84MHz
1 WCDMA Carrier
r
R
D
i
j
i
jD
r
R
D
i
j
i
jD
Codec FR
D = 4 / Sector = 3
Reuse = 4 x 3
#Ckt/Sector= 2x7=14
Codec AMR 12.2
127 Walsh Codes
Reuse = 1
%SHO=20%
#Ckt/Sector = 64
24 Erl/BTS 160 Erl/NodeB
r
R
D
i
j
i
jD
PRBs
...
7Symbols
12 subcarriers
25 Resource Blocks
700 Erl/eNBCodec AMR 12.2
25 PRBs - 300 REs
200 -250 users/ Sector
2G (GSM) 3G (UMTS/HSPA) LTE
HSPA+ 2100 MHZ VS LTE 2600 MHZ 3G (UMTS/HSPA) LTE
Voice Capacity @ 5 MHz
Data Capacity @ 5 MHz
Source: Brendan McWilliams, Yannick Le Pรฉzennec, Grahame
Collins Vodafone Technology Networks, Access Competence
Centre, Madrid, Spain & Newbury, United Kingdom 2012
๐ป๐๐ = #๐ช๐๐ ๐ ร ๐ด๐๐ ร ๐ญ๐ฌ๐ช ร
๐ถโ๐๐๐ ๐๐ก๐
๐บ๐ญ
๐ป๐๐ = ๐๐ ร ๐ ร ๐ ร
๐, ๐๐
๐๐
= ๐๐ ๐ด๐๐๐
๐ป๐๐ = #๐ด๐ฐ๐ด๐ ร #๐น๐ฉ๐ ร ๐ด๐๐ ร ๐ญ๐ฌ๐ช ร
#๐ช๐๐.ร #๐บ๐๐๐
๐ป๐ป๐ฐ/๐
๐ป๐๐ = ๐ ร ๐๐ ร ๐ ร ๐ ร
๐๐ ร ๐ โ ๐๐
๐, ๐
= ๐๐ ๐ด๐๐๐
MIMO Yes, but not for existing network
Modulation QPSK, 16 QAM, 64 QAM
Intereference Rake Receiver
Limitation Up Link limitation due interference
MIMO Yes,
Modulation QPSK, 16 QAM, 64 QAM
Intereference FRF/ICIC
Limitation CoMP/ICIC/e-ICIC
Hundreds of users per NodeB Thousands of users per eNB
10. Cost
$$$
$$$
$$$
$$$
3G (1) 3G (2) 3G (3) 3G (4)
3a. Portadora
2a. Portadora
NodeB
LTE (X)
R99 HSDPA + Carriers HSPA+ DC MIMO?
FLAT ARCHITECTURE LTE VS 3G BASE STATION COST NETWORK UPGRADE
S1-U
X2 S11
PCRF
HLR/HSS
OCS/
OFCS
Internet
S5
S-GW P-GW
MME
IMS
S1-AP
Gx
RxS6a
SGi
Gy/Gz
Sy
Ro/Rf
Sh
Sp
E-UTRAN Evolved Packet Core
HSPA needs continuous upgrade for supporting
high data throughput/capacity
LTE/SAE has flat architecture without controllers
(like RNC) and CS domain.
LTE Access Network is 7-10 times cheaper
than 3G per Mbps.
NEW CELL SITE CAPEX SPECTRUM COST NETWORK COST
25%
45% 50%
52%
38% 35%
23% 17% 15%
Rooftop 30m Tower 50m Tower
Infra BTS Transport
Source: Planning Area, Oi, 2012
New Cell Site represents a huge impact in Wireless
Operation total cost.
System capacity (Spectral Efficiency) in single
site is the most important attribute.
The 2G spectrum consumption is faster than
3G as voice traffic increases. Spectrum is a
lack and valuable resource. 10 MHz can cost
500-1 Billion of Reais.
0 MHz
10 MHz
20 MHz
30 MHz
10 Erl/BTS 50 Erl/BTS 90 Erl/BTS 130 Erl/BTS
2G
3G
+14 MHz
Voice Perspective
Data Perspective
$$$
$$$
$$$
$$$
$$$
0,0 kErl 2,0 kErl 4,0 kErl 6,0 kErl
2G (4/4/4)
3G (1/1/1)
3X
The cost per Erl to support voice on 3G is
invariably cheaper than 2G .
6 kErl (~ 300k users), is 3 x the cost 2G.
Although LTE and HSPA have almost the same
spectral efficiency, butโฆ
+$ +$ +$ +$
21/28 42 84 168 336
150/300 1500
Rel.7 Rel.8 Rel.9 Rel.10 Rel.11
HSPA+
LTE
Mbps
Mbps
11. Customer Experience
THROUGHPUT
0 Mbps
2 Mbps
4 Mbps
6 Mbps
2009201020112012201320142015
Amรฉrica Latina
America do Norte
Europa Ocidental
Brazil
It is expected that the average grows
exponentially. In Brazil, the growth is
82% year-on-year by 2015 according to
Cisco
APPS AND MARKET TRENDS
URA
DCH
PCH
FACHIdle
3G: RRC SM
(3GPP TS 25.331)
LTE: RRC SM
(3GPP TS 36.331)
Idle
Conn.
LATENCY VOICE QUALITY
QoE is the main motivation of churn and it
will remain a key challenge for mobile
operators and may in fact rise as the
wireless value chain becomes increasingly
decentralized.
ITU-T Rec. P.10/G.100: The overall
acceptability of an application or service,
as perceived subjectively by the end-user.
QOE DEFINITION
Req. SLA QoS
QoE SLA KQI KPI
0 ms 400 ms 800 ms
GPRS
EDGE
WCDMA
HSPA
HSPA+
LTE
2
3
4
4 kbps 11 kbps 18 kbps
AMR-NB AMR-WB
21/28 42 84 168 336
150/300 1500
Rel.7 Rel.8 Rel.9 Rel.10 Rel.11
HSPA+
LTE
Mbps
Mbps
~10 ms
t t+๏t-๏ throughput
u(t)
u(t+๏)
u(t-๏)
uโ(t) <0
Utility=QoE
Utility function perfectly captures user
satisfaction in terms of what they are
willing to expect and pay.
UTILITY FUNCTION VS QOE
Users have more sensibility when
lose than when win.
HDTVVideo Conf.
Aug. RealityCollaboration
Mobile TVMusic
Email
M2M
Games
Social Net.
SMS IM
kbps Mbps Mbps+
Other improvements, such as HD Voice (or High-
Definition Voice) represents a significant customer
satisfaction through high sound quality in mobile
communications.
Competitive
Pressure
Delighted
Extremely Dissatisfied
Fully FunctionalDysfunctional
Attractive
Time
Expected
KANOยดS MODEL
Customer satisfaction has a positive
correlation with how the product is
functional. I.e., dysfunctional => bad
experience; functional => Delighted
12. Technology Life Cycle
2012 2013 2019E
CAGR
2013-2019
Worldwide mobile subscriptions* 6,300 6,700 9,300 6%
โ Smartphone subscriptions 1,300 1,900 5,600 20%
โ Mobile PC, tablet &mobile router subs 250 300 750 15%
โ Mobile broadband subscriptions 1,500 2,100 800 25%
โ Mobile subscriptions, GSM/EDGE-only 4,300 4,300 1,200 -20%
โ Mobile subscriptions, WCDMA/HSPA 1,200 1,600 4,800 20%
โ Mobile subscriptions, LTE 70 175 2,600 55%
Source: Ercisson Mobility Report 2013
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
10
6
LTE
UMTS/HSPA
GSM;EDGE
TD-SCDMA
CDMA
Other
WorldMobileSubs.(Billions)
Source: Ericsson 2012
LIFE CYCLESUBSCRIPTIONS RATE AND FORECAST
Utility
Budget
Restriction
LTE
HSPA+
๐ด๐น๐บ =
๐๐ผ
๐๐ณ๐ป๐ฌ
๐๐ผ
๐๐ฏ๐บ๐ท๐จ +
โ ๐ด๐น๐บ =
๐. ๐๐
๐. ๐๐
= ๐. ๐๐
๐ ๐ณ๐ป๐ฌ
๐ ๐ฏ๐บ๐ท๐จ+
โค ๐ด๐น๐บ โ ๐ ๐ณ๐ป๐ฌ โค ๐. ๐๐ ร ๐ ๐ฏ๐บ๐ท๐จ+
Utility
Function
Budget
Restriction
Performancelevel
time
Willingnesstopay
โ ๐พ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ป๐ ๐ท๐๐
โ ๐ป๐๐๐
=
โ ๐ป๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐
โ ๐ป๐๐๐
ร
โ ๐พ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ป๐ ๐ท๐๐
โ ๐ป๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐
Throughput
Cost
Utility
UTILITY FUNCTION VS BUDGET RESTRICTION
Network
Planning
Year X
Demand
Voice & Data
Scenario A
Expand with existing technology
Scenario B
Start to change to a new technology
๐ป๐ช ๐จ ๐
(๐ + ๐ฒ)๐โ๐ฟ
๐ต
๐=๐ฟ
๐บ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ฉ
>
<
๐บ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐จ
๐ป๐ช ๐ฉ ๐
(๐ + ๐ฒ)๐โ๐ฟ
๐ต
๐=๐ฟ
โ๐ป๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐บ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ โค โโ๐บ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ช๐๐๐ โ โ๐ต๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ช๐๐๐
Scen. A Scen. B
Year X
Ecosystem Cost
Spectrum Cost
๐ป๐ช ๐จ ๐ป๐ช ๐ฉ
ASSET MANAGEMENT
๐ฌ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ช๐๐๐ = ๐ต๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ช๐๐๐ + ๐ป๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐บ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐
LTE VS HSPA LAUNCHED NETWORKS
20%
11%
7%
35%
1%
26% 0% <7,2 Mbps
7,2 Mbps
14,4 Mbps
21,1 Mbps
28,8 Mbps
42,2 Mbps
84,4 Mpbs
89%
9% 2%
100 Mbps
150 Mbps
300 Mbps
LTE: 279
networks
HSPA: 574
networks
Source: GSMA/GSA 2014
13. Final Words
Rapid and consistent mobile broadband consolidation, video, social network will bring a tsunami of IP
data traffic. In the same time rapid service lifecycle forces new services to be mature quickly, with low
profitability.
Churn is still remains a major challenge for operators, mainly due to costs associated with the capture
of new users in a consolidated market. Negative perception of services due smaller customer
experience failures and bad service performance are one of the major reasons for service cancellation
and change of service provider.
Definitely, the main application (or killer app) is customer experience.
Spectrum is a lack resource and ITU-R forecasts a need of 1280 to 1720 MHz more in the medium term
for IMT (before 2020) for Mobile Broadband Services.
New cell site represents most important part of network investment and has several legal barriers.
Technology evolution improves the overall customer experience, but also brings additional advantages
by optimizing and saving long term investments and spectrum.
Technology life cycle management is not simple, but it is one of the most important tool for strategic
network planning, but even for tactical and operational planning.