Megacities on the move. Your guide to the future of sustainable urban mobility in 2040. Forum for the Future is the UK’s leading sustainable development NGO. We work internationally with government, business and public service providers, helping them to develop strategies to achieve success through sustainability, to deliver products and services which enhance people’s lives and are better for the environment, and to lead the way to a better world. www.forumforthefuture.org

1. megacities
on the move
your guide to the future of
sustainable urban mobility in 2040

2. Forum for the Future is the UK’s leading sustainable
development NGO. We work internationally with
government, business and public service providers,
helping them to develop strategies to achieve
success through sustainability, to deliver products
and services which enhance people’s lives and are
better for the environment, and to lead the way to
a better world.
www.forumforthefuture.org
Megacities on the Move has been led by Forum for the Future Authors: Director, EMBARQ Turkey; Nancy Kete, EMBARQ
Forum for the Future in partnership with Ivana Gazibara, James Goodman and former Director, EMBARQ; Clayton Lane, The EMBARQ global network catalyses
EMBARQ and was funded by Vodafone Peter Madden. Acting Director, EMBARQ. environmentally and financially sustainable
and the FIA Foundation for the Automobile transport solutions to improve quality of
and Society. Forum for the Future support team: Special thanks also to the many people life in cities. Since 2002, the network has
Chris Dewey, Stephanie Draper, Rupert who contributed to the project – through grown to include five Centres for Sustainable
Date of publication: Fausset, Joy Green, Joe Hall, Ruth interviews, workshops and peer reviews. Transport, located in Mexico, Brazil, India,
November 2010 Harwood, Clare Jenkinson, David Mason, Turkey and the Andean Region, that work
Gustavo Montes de Oca, Nathalie Nathe, For a full list please refer to the Appendix. together with local transport authorities to
Registered office: Will Nitch-Smith, Kate O’Hagan, Hanna reduce pollution, improve public health,
Overseas House Plant, Francesca Rutherford, Ulrike Stein, FIA Foundation and create safe, accessible and attractive
19–23 Ironmonger Row Claire Wyatt. The FIA Foundation is an independent urban public spaces. www.embarq.org
London EC1V 3QN UK registered charity which manages
Special thanks to our partners: and supports an international programme
Company No. 2959712 Sheila Watson, Director of Environment, of activities promoting road safety,
VAT Reg. No. 6777475 70 The FIA Foundation; Nicola Woodhead, environmental protection and sustainable Download
Charity No. 1040519 Group Environment Manager, Vodafone; mobility, as well as funding specialist
Chris Burgess, Corporate Responsibility motor sport safety research. All the Megacities on the Move
Design: Director, Vodafone; Caroline Dewing, www.fiafoundation.org resources at:
www.thomasmatthews.com Senior Manager, Communications Strategy, www.forumforthefuture.org/projects/
Vodafone; Samaresh Parida, Director, Vodafone megacities-on-the-move
Strategy, Vodafone Essar; Prema Shrikrishna, Vodafone is one of the world’s largest mobile
Manager – Corporate Responsibility, communications companies by revenue
Vodafone Essar; Tugba Unal, Corporate with approximately 347 million proportionate For more information on Megacities on
Affairs, Vodafone Turkey; Prajna Rao, customers as at 30 June 2010. Vodafone the Move or to organise a workshop
Urban Planner, EMBARQ (CST India); currently has equity interests in over 30 please email Ivana Gazibara at:
Madhav Pai, Director, EMBARQ India; countries across five continents and over megacitiesonthemove@forumforthefuture.
Ahmet Birsel, Programme Manager, 40 partner networks worldwide. For more org, or call +44 (0)20 7324 3673.
EMBARQ (SUM Turkey); Sibel Bulay, information, please visit www.vodafone.com
Return to contents about page 2

3. contents
1. 2. 3. 4.
overview p4 what’s your destination? what can you do? six plan the future now
four scenarios for urban solutions for sustainable how to run a workshop
Foreword p5 mobility in 2040 p17 urban mobility p36 using the scenarios p49
How can you use this toolkit? p7
What are scenarios? p18 1. Integrate, integrate, integrate p38 Sample workshop agenda
What’s ahead? and exercises p50
Factors shaping the future p8 How were the scenarios created? p18 2. Make the poor a priority p40
Case study: Istanbul p56
What can you do? Key variables: energy sources 3. Go beyond the car p41
Six solutions for sustainable and global governance p19 Case study: Mumbai p60
urban mobility p11 4. Switch on to IT networks p43
The scenarios: Appendix: Thank yous p64
Scenario summaries p12 Planned-opolis p20 5. ‘Refuel’ our vehicles p45
Sprawl-ville p24
Perspectives from our partners p16 Renew-abad p28 6. Change people’s behaviour p47
Communi-city p32
scenarios:
planned-opolis p20 sprawl-ville p24 renew-abad p28 communi-city p32
contents page 3

4. 1. overview
megacities on the move

5. foreword – the future Megacities on the Move, a collaboration
between Forum for the Future, the FIA
impacts of changing weather patterns.
Throughout human history we have built our
of the world is urban Foundation, Vodafone and EMBARQ, can
help you find answers to these questions.
It is a toolkit designed to help governments,
major settlements on rivers, estuaries and
coasts. Sea level rise and more frequent and
intense storms and floods are just some of
companies and civil society organisations the impacts cities will have to contend with.
How will people travel in the cities of the future? understand the challenges of the future and
How will billions of city-dwellers access what start planning for sustainable city living. It is clear that people must find sustainable
they need without putting intolerable strains ways to live and travel in cities. We won’t
Humankind recently reached a historic survive without new thinking and more
on the planet? How can we plan now for more tipping point: for the first time more people creative approaches. We will need
sustainable ways of life in a radically different world? live in cities than outside them. This trend completely new ways to produce and
is set to intensify. By 2040 two in three deliver goods and services, consume
people on the planet will be city-dwellers.1 and move about. Cities are in many ways
There will be many more of us, as world places of opportunity – hot-houses for
population grows by two billion, and far economic, social and cultural innovation
more megacities, primarily in Asia, Africa – so they are likely to be the places where
and Latin America. we find new solutions to mobility.
The social, environmental and economic
implications of this will be enormous.
Tokyo skyline All over the globe, cities need to start What is ‘mobility’?
planning now to radically re-engineer their
infrastructures to cope with much larger In this toolkit, ‘mobility’ means more
populations than they currently support. than just transport. Our definition
of mobility is a means of access
But cities do not exist in isolation. They – to goods, services, people and
will need to succeed in a world where information. This includes physical
key resources are in short supply: from movement, but also other solutions
oil scarcity and rising energy prices to such as ICT-based platforms, more
competition between biofuels and food effective public service delivery
production, there are major challenges provision, and urban design that
ahead that face us all. There will be improves accessibility. To plan for
critical questions about how we manage people’s needs in the megacities
these resources, who controls them, and of the future, we need to look at all
who can afford them. of these aspects together.
Overlaying – and intensifying – all of these
pressures is climate change. Cities will have What are ‘megacities’?
to deal with both the policy responses, such Megacities are urban areas with a
as more expensive carbon, and the physical population in excess of 10 million
people. For more information, see:
1
United Nations Department of Economic and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megacity
Social Affairs, World Urbanization Prospects:
The 2009 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/index.
htm (accessed on 24 September, 2010).
Return to contents 1. overview > foreword page 5

6. Megacities on the Move offers six sustainable “ The goal is not transport, but accessibility ULTra PRT, © www.ultraprt.com
mobility solutions that we can all begin – more productivity, more mobility, more
acting on today, from integrated planning, beauty in one day.”
to looking beyond the car, to improved use > Sue Zielinski, MD, Sustainable Mobility
of technology. But more than anything, & Accessibility Research & Transformation,
we want you to take this toolkit and apply University of Michigan
it to your own context. Through research,
interviews, and workshops in Istanbul and
Mumbai, we have collected the most exciting
thinking about sustainable mobility. We have
used this to create four scenarios that paint
challenging but realistic pictures of what the
future could hold. They enable you to explore
your future, whoever you are, wherever you
are – and shape your own response.
The future of the world is urban. Because of
the rapid modernisation of countries such as
Brazil, China, India and Turkey, we are seeing
the largest rural-urban migration in history.
How that urban development happens will
lock-in behaviour for decades to come, so it
needs to be sustainable. It is no exaggeration
to say that the global race for sustainability
will be won or lost in our cities.
Peter Madden, Madhav Pai,
CEO, Forum for the Future Director, EMBARQ India
Clayton Lane, Sheila Watson, Megacities on the Move
Acting Director, EMBARQ Director of Environment, The FIA Foundation
Read on to find out more about
the challenges and solutions of the
future. Download all the Megacities
on the Move resources at: www.
forumforthefuture.org/projects/
Sibel Bulay, Nicola Woodhead, megacities-on-the-move
Director, EMBARQ Turkey Group Environment Manager, Vodafone
Return to contents 1. overview > foreword page 6

7. how can you 1. Overview 4. Plan the future now: How to run
a workshop using the scenarios
use this toolkit? You can use this section to introduce your
colleagues, business partners and clients
to the issues.
One of the best ways to get engaged in
the challenges you face is to organise
a workshop. This section gives specific
Megacities on the Move is designed to be a practical 2. What’s your destination? Four guidance on how to plan a workshop on
toolkit which can help public bodies, companies and scenarios for urban mobility in 2040 the future of urban mobility, using the four
civil society organisations develop strategies which scenarios as a starting point to explore
Want to explore what the future may hold issues relevant to you and develop a strategy
will enable people to live and travel more sustainably and test your strategy? Our scenarios and action plan. In May and June 2010
in the major cities of the 21st century. It aims to help – Planned-opolis, Sprawl-ville, Renew-abad, Forum for the Future ran similar workshops
you understand the key long-term issues better, apply and Communi-city - are four possible visions in Mumbai and Istanbul – you can see
of urban mobility in the world of 2040. They the highlights from this process which may
them to your own thinking, and inspire innovative can be a very effective tool for understanding give you ideas for your own workshop.
solutions. The toolkit contains four sections and a set how complex factors may play out and
of scenario animations. shape very different futures, challenging Scenario animations:
and inspiring organisations to plan for more Bringing the future to life
effective solutions. They are designed to
strengthen strategy and policy, advocate We have brought the scenarios to life in
long-term thinking and build collaborative four short, vivid and compelling animations
visions for a sustainable future. examining mobility challenges and solutions
as we follow a day in the life of an ordinary
3. What can you do? Six solutions woman in each of the four worlds.
for sustainable urban mobility Animations give a snapshot of each scenario
and can be a very effective way of engaging
If you are motivated to bring innovation into your audience in the subject.
your strategic planning, these are actions
you can take now to help create the
sustainable urban mobility systems of
the future. This section includes practical
examples of how these solutions are already
being put into practice around the world;
from integrated cities to intelligent traffic
systems, automotive technology, car-free
days and virtual meetings.
Return to contents 1. overview > how can you use this toolkit? page 7

8. what’s ahead? factors shaping what can we be more
certain about?
most of Europe and North America.
These changes will put increasing pressure
the future of urban mobility Climate change
on mobility in cities, and make it more
difficult to ensure a growing and ageing
urban population can access affordable
mobility solutions – such as public transport
What does the future hold for large cities of the 21st The scientific consensus is that climate and other essential services.
century? We can be more or less certain about how change is a reality and that it is extremely
certain factors will play out. What we are certain of likely to be the result of human activity. We “ In an optimistic scenario, cities will have
are already seeing the effects: we continue to planned to create an urban environment
is that the responses to these factors will be critical break temperature records; extreme weather for people. They will make their planning
in determining the nature of mobility in our cities. events are increasingly common; and the and infrastructure investments based on
melting of Arctic ice may now be irreversible. accessibility for people.”
Even if we manage to take early global action > Nancy Kete, former Director, EMBARQ
to decarbonise our economies, the pollution
we emit now will stay in the atmosphere Resource constraints
São Paulo – unless deliberately removed by human
action – for decades.2 This growing global population also has
an increasing taste for resource-intensive
Climate change will affect key aspects of goods such as meat and cars. The result
our lives and will have profound impacts is exploding global demand for water and
on our cities in particular. Heatwaves or land for crops, livestock, domestic use
flash flooding, for example, will impact the and biofuels; fossil fuels to power transport
comfort, cost and reliability of daily urban life. or production; and minerals, metals and
But climate change will also affect the vast forests for manufacturing.
areas, both near and far, that cities rely on
for supplies such as water, food or energy. All of these resources are already heavily
Ultimately, climate change could affect cities’ exploited, and many face the possibility of
basic ability to function. severe depletion or even exhaustion in the
first half of the century. Scarcity will lead to
“ Climate change will change the game, competition and high, volatile resource prices
bringing forward ‘the first predictable – it seems likely that the age of cheap oil
industrial revolution’.” and cheap energy is over, for example. This
> Paul Dickinson, Executive Chairman, will have a knock-on effect on the cost and
Carbon Disclosure Project availability of transport and other goods and
services essential to everyday needs in cities.
Demographic trends Urban societies can respond in different
ways: through technological innovation,
We can be reasonably certain about behaviour change, economic development,
population increases over the next 30 migration patterns and more.
years: from 6.8 billion people in 2010 to 2
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, http://
approximately 8.8 billion in 2040.3 This www.ipcc.ch/, The Royal Society, http://royalsociety.
growth won’t be evenly distributed: most org/climate-change/.
3
of it will occur in the cities of Africa, China, UN Department of Social and Economic Affairs,
World Population Prospects, 2008 revision: http://esa.
India and Latin America. China will also be un.org/unpd/wpp2008/index.htm (accessed on 24
dealing with an ageing population, as will September 2010).
Return to contents 1. overview > what’s ahead? page 8

9. what are we less certain about?
Energy supply and demand Global economy Climate change responses
“ Governments make a lot of money on
It is highly uncertain how societies will Economic growth creates a spiral of greater The response to climate change is likely to
fuel duty, and this would be displaced
respond to the exploding demand yet demand for mobility, and greater demand deeply affect how cities of the future look,
by electrons if electric vehicles were
stagnating supply of energy, especially oil. for goods and services. Providing more feel and operate. The Megacities on the
mainstreamed – so there will have to
But it is clear the energy mix that’s in place goods and services requires more transport, Move scenarios all show a different balance
be a profound shift in terms of how
in 2040 will determine what types of mobility support and staff; increased wealth allows of measures to adapt to climate change and
governments generate income, and
systems we have in our cities. For example, people to travel more and encourages more reduce further emissions. For example, in the
structure tax and incentives.”
if there is a large-scale shift to renewable expensive modes of transport such as the carefully planned and centralised world of
> Tom Briggs, Vice President, Policy and
energy, this could favour electric, solar or car; and growth in property prices leads to Planned-opolis, streets are lined with carbon
Communications, BP Alternative Energy
hydrogen-powered vehicles. Or if energy longer commutes. scrubbers that suck carbon dioxide out of
is expensive and inaccessible to most, this the atmosphere, and neighbourhoods are
could favour mass transit over personal We have come to take growth for granted, designed from scratch to maximise natural Social structures
motorised transport. People’s lifestyle but could resource limitations or climate cooling. In contrast, the cities of Sprawl-
choices, such as opting for virtual services change bring the seemingly endless ville are designed by the rich for the rich, Traditionally, most societies have favoured
instead of travel, could directly affect energy expansion cycle to an end? Or, might lifestyle who effectively live in a city within the city, the family as the core unit, often with
demand levels in cities too. changes alter how we think about growth protected from the floods and heat to which strong communities surrounding the family.
and wellbeing, affecting everything from the poor are exposed. These communities were typically more
“ By 2040, the grid will be different: we consumption patterns to modal choices? self-sufficient and had lower levels of
will be burning electrons rather than Governance mobility. Today, many cities are becoming
hydrocarbons. Those electrons will “ In places like Istanbul and Mumbai, with more atomised spaces, with a huge influx
be greener, so there will be a lot more large populations with rapid economic There are big gaps in global governance of diverse groups and more emphasis on
renewable energy generation.” growth, it is absolutely key that they systems on major issues including energy, individuals. This could spell the decline
> Gordon Feller, Director of Urban focus on restraining growth in vehicle food, water and climate change. If these are of traditional community structures and
Innovations at Cisco Systems use. It’s arguably the hardest and the not improved, or if governance deteriorates, an emergence of new types of community
most important challenge confronting our countries and cities will be more for the ‘urban age’ – more networked,
Resource use these cities.” vulnerable to external shocks. City-level flexible, and mobile, but also more
> Dan Sperling, author of “Two Billion Cars: governance is also critical, particularly when temporary. Equally, there is a possibility
Mobility is essentially about the ability Driving Towards Sustainability” it comes to mobility – for example, to develop that we might see a reassertion of traditional
to access goods, services, people and well-designed public transport systems, community and family structures in the
information. Therefore the future response maintain order and support the integration cities of the future, whether as a backlash
to resource scarcity will have a huge of various mobility networks. against too much individualism and social
impact on urban mobility and quality of life. fragmentation, or as a result of resource and
If there is strategic investment in energy, It is highly uncertain how the quality, climate constraints.
food and water supply infrastructure, effectiveness and structure of governance
for example, cities will be better able to systems will unfold. Different approaches
ensure their citizens can access essential to governance could profoundly affect
goods and services. If there are inadequate mobility in cities – from tightly controlled
responses to resource scarcity, life in and networked mobility systems on one end
megacities of the future will be tough, of the spectrum, to a chaotic proliferation
with rapid population growth but too few of mobility solutions in a world with poor
resources to meet people’s demands. governance on the other.
Return to contents 1. overview > what’s ahead? page 9

10. Values Business Technological development Urban form
The 20th century was the age of the car. It Future trends such as climate change Technological change has reached an Currently we are on a pathway to ever-
became a status symbol for those who had impacts, resource constraints, technological unprecedented speed, and this is likely to increasing urban sprawl, and in some cases
it, and an aspiration for those who could not innovation, or cost pressures on public continue into the future – though innovation megacities merging with neighbouring cities
afford it. In the age of rising middle classes services, will present a number of risks could also be stifled as a result of various and towns. These mega-regions, formed
in emerging economies, demand for the car and opportunities to businesses operating economic or political factors, as in our by megacities that stretch hundreds of
may explode – as we are already seeing in in cities. The typical urban mobility Sprawl-ville scenario. Many place faith in kilometres – sometimes across state borders
markets such as China. Managed badly, model is state-funded public transport technology, and indeed new vehicle systems – form vast belts of high population density
this could have detrimental impacts on the systems, competing and combining with do have the potential to reduce energy and and economic power and create huge
quality of life in cities – from air pollution, to privately owned cars and taxis running carbon impacts dramatically, especially challenges for governance and mobility.
congestion and road safety, to exacerbation on public roads. from cars. However, it is much harder to
of climate impacts. predict what technological developments However, this trend is not inevitable and
This could change in a number of different we will have in 2040, and even how influential it is possible to reverse it. For example,
However, future generations may have a ways. There will almost certainly be these will be compared to other factors, from many urban planners and transport officials
different set of mobility preferences. Today’s opportunities to provide digital alternatives policy to behaviour change. today advocate replacing low density
children will have grown up with immersive to physical mobility – from employment, to car-centric cities and zoned land use with
networking technology, and are likely to be retail, to leisure. New business models could Certainly, ICT-based innovation will be a denser, integrated urban villages based
much more comfortable spending time in emerge in personal mobility as well, such prominent feature of our lives, particularly around mixed land use, public transport
virtual spaces. There are already signs in as today’s urban car clubs. Office spaces in increasingly networked cities, where the and walkability. Our scenarios reflect these
some cities that the popularity of the car and the way we work could change, and ability to be permanently connected could different possibilities.
as a status symbol is declining, especially private sector provision could extend bring better access to goods, services and
as congestion problems get worse and further into areas traditionally addressed other people with less need for physical “ In the past 100 years, the automobile has
alternative status symbols (such as smart by governments – from public transport transport. Transport technology innovations shaped the city rather than cities shaping
technology devices) emerge. to wider infrastructure. might include further changes in vehicle the automobile. In the future the opposite
design, propulsion systems and energy will be the case: cities will start to shape
“ The UK government banned smoking sources to address congestion, carbon mobility.”
in public places and nobody batted an emissions and safety. The most anticipated > Chris Borroni-Bird, Director of Advanced
eyelid. A generation ago, this would trend is for new electric vehicles, including Technology Vehicle Concepts, GM
have been unthinkable. At the moment, low carbon power-trains similar to electric
mobility is different. There is no sense cars. Other possibilities include buses or
that mobility causes harm. Indeed it is cars driven by locally produced hydrogen
seen as a good thing if you can afford or biofuels.
it. Maybe attitudes to travel will change
like they did to smoking.” “ The convergence between cities and other
> Ben Plowden, Director of Integrated areas will grow as we start to spend time in
Programme Delivery, Transport for London ‘virtual cities’.”
> Guy Summers, R&D Collaboration
Manager, Vodafone
Cyclist in Mumbai
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11. what can you do?
six solutions for
sustainable urban mobility
Looking 30 years into the future, the challenges
– and the solutions – can seem a long way off.
But everyone involved in urban mobility can take
action today, whether you are a government, city
authority, urban planner, transport provider, in
business or the public sector.
High speed train
1. Integrate, integrate, integrate 3. Go beyond the car 5. ‘Refuel’ our vehicles Want to see how this is happening
in the real world?
Transport, urban planning, business, public Current growth rates in car ownership are As oil becomes more scarce, expensive and
services, energy and food supply can no simply unsustainable: there are already one a security risk, we will need to implement Please see section 3 for more details
longer be considered in isolation. Together, billion cars in the world, projected to grow greater energy efficiency measures, as and practical examples of how
we need to create integrated mobility to two billion within a few decades.4 We well as shift to powering our vehicles with these six solutions are already being
systems that will provide people with choice, need alternative ways of getting around, renewable, low-carbon fuel sources. We will designed, put into practice, or scaled
flexibility and seamless connectivity whether and we need to design for people, not cars. need significant investment in battery and up around the world: from integrated
they are travelling from one place to another We will need urban neighbourhoods with fuel technology to seize this opportunity and cities to intelligent traffic systems,
or accessing the things they need virtually. the infrastructure to serve local communities take alternative energy-powered vehicles biofuels to battery technology,
and dense developments that prevent further to scale over the next few decades. Most car-free days to travel-free virtual
2. Make the poor a priority sprawl, are easy to walk around, and provide vehicle technology experts agree that meetings. Download it from:
access to key goods and services. advanced technologies also have enormous www.forumforthefuture.org/projects/
Mobility systems must work for rich and potential to improve fuel efficiency. megacities-on-the-move
poor alike, to ensure everyone has access to 4. Switch on to IT networks
goods, services and job opportunities. Cities 6. Change people’s behaviour
already have many people on lower incomes There is enormous potential for information
and this trend will only increase. Tailored technology to reduce the need for physical Many of our future challenges are shaped by
mobility solutions must be designed to meet movement by enabling urban dwellers to people’s values, behaviour and preferences.
their needs. access more and more services online. Using We need to think about ways to influence
IT networks to connect and coordinate cars mass behaviour and social norms in positive
and public transport can also help reduce ways to promote low-carbon, healthier urban
traffic congestion and accident risks. lifestyles. Future leading cities will plan today
to influence lifestyles rather than simply
relying on additional road infrastructure and 4
Daniel Sperling and Deborah Gordon, Two Billion
modes of transport. Cars, Oxford University Press, New York, 2009.
Return to contents 1. overview > what can you do? page 11

12. scenario summary: urban form Energy > Centralised grids rely on gas-
fired power stations and carbon capture
planned-opolis Because energy is very expensive, cities
are highly managed, with limited personal
mobility and efficient public transport
networks. In some cases, cities are
and storage.
Resources > Strict planning and rationing
ensure resources are used as efficiently
In a world of fossil fuels and expensive downsized or even designed and built as possible.
from scratch. Floating cities are also
energy, the only solution is tightly taking off in coastal areas as a key climate Economy > A strong, regulated economy
planned and controlled urban transport. adaptation strategy. invests in technology and infrastructure.
Climate change > Cities are replanned
mobility as extreme measures are taken to
decarbonise the world.
Mobility choices are constrained. People
have allowed ICT and the advent of ‘virtual Governance > One-size-fits-all
city spaces’ to replace a large portion governance is effective, but reduces
of physical travel. Many cities ban cars freedom.
in central areas to meet carbon targets.
Personal vehicles are available only to Social structures > Society is fairer
the wealthy, so the average citizen moves but less individualistic.
around the city using tightly controlled and
networked public transport systems, and Values > It is a hard-working but high-
by walking or cycling through strictly non- trust world.
motorised zones.
Business > Big business is everywhere,
and even governs some cities.
highlights
Technology > We live in a hi-tech world
Feeling hot? > People keep cool under the of integrated systems and virtualisation.
ten million trees the city has planted.
What’s on the menu? > The Global Food
Council can tell you – it decides what food is
grown in which region.
Need to get away? > Millions of people
now live in floating cities and millions more
escape daily to virtual cities like ‘London 2.0’.
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13. scenario summary: urban form Energy > Oil production peaked around
2030 but transport still uses fossil fuel
sprawl-ville The city is a great fragmented sprawl.
There are huge, low-density suburbs,
freeways to connect them, and commuter
jams. In the periphery of the city there
– particularly gas – and focuses on
efficiency.
Resources > Resource scarcity has
The city is dominated by fossil fuel-powered cars. are numerous ‘failed’ developments, lowered the quality of life for the urban
built too far from public transport and masses in this elite-controlled world.
The elite still gets around, but most urban therefore unaffordable to urban commuters
dwellers face poor transport infrastructure. now that oil prices are high. They either Economy > The global economy is
become ghetto areas for poorer people stagnant, susceptible to protectionism
or are reborn as local communities trying and shrinking supply chains.
to provide their own services.
Climate change > Short-term thinking
rules as people focus on adapting and
mobility protecting their property.
In urban areas, the car-dominant model Governance > Cities are governed by and
persists, although the average personal for the elites – they maintain just enough
vehicle is now an ultra-efficient hybrid or of the basic infrastructure to minimise
diesel car. As the poor are increasingly public disorder.
unable to afford the daily car commute,
urban ghetto areas spread in the city core Social structures > It’s a less equal world
and informal paratransit 5 services spring where the informal economy prospers.
up to serve community needs. People begin
to alter their commute to address daily Values > Tension is growing as people
needs: nomad businessmen sit in traffic in lose faith in consumerism and the world
armoured vehicles, working while moving is increasingly polarised into religious and
slowly from meeting to meeting; many of ethnic extremes.
the cars bought by the emerging global
middle classes become driveway trophies Business > Business is powerful – with
rather than a practical means of transport, an expanded role in society as a result of
as people return to buses and bicycles. less public service provision – but it is less
accountable.
highlights Technology > There are efficiency gains
but few major breakthroughs.
Where’s my car? > Everywhere! Cars are still
in favour and still the ultimate status symbol.
Don’t like the jam? > It’s a 24-hour city 5
An alternative mode of flexible passenger
– of never-ending congestion. transportation that does not follow fixed routes
or schedules. Typically mini-buses are used to
Fill up the tank? > Businessmen get provide paratransit service, but share taxis and
jitneys are also important providers. For more
around in tank-like armoured cars to information, see the Wikipedia entry on paratransit:
protect themselves. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paratransit
Return to contents 1. overview > scenario 2: sprawl-ville page 13

14. scenario summary 3 urban form Energy > It’s a brave new world where we
have rapidly embraced renewable energy.
renew-abad The age of urban sprawl is over: cities are
becoming more densely populated as
they set boundaries for growth. City states
have re-emerged as powerful forces to
Resources > There’s a shortage of food
and land, and resource use is strictly
regulated.
The world has turned to alternative energy, be reckoned with. Neighbourhoods are
organised around hubs providing integrated Economy > Economic power has shifted
and high-tech, clean, well-planned transport services from in-house energy generation south to China, India and their allies.
helps everyone get around. to vehicle charging points to community
centres and flexible offices. Climate change > An early global deal
on climate change means that the most
dangerous impacts were averted.
mobility
Governance > Strict governance holds
On city streets, many more personal sway in nation-states and city-states alike.
vehicles are electric or hybrid, and electric
rail and buses are the top choice for public Social structures > The rich-poor gap
transport. Energy continues to be relatively has narrowed within societies, though
expensive, so people often switch between many regions have been left behind in the
personal vehicles, public transport, walking low carbon race.
and cycling. The infrastructure has been
massively upgraded in many cities to Values > People value simplicity and
encourage this. Sophisticated augmented authenticity.
reality services reduce the need for physical
travel, and almost every aspect of transport Business > Business provides low-
is guided by technology. impact services in collaboration with
governments.
highlights Technology > Innovation is driven and
regulated by the public sector. There have
Waiting for the train? > There are ultra-high- been important breakthroughs, including
speed rail links connecting every suburb. in electric vehicle battery technology.
Drive off into the sunset? > Solar scooters
are one of the popular ways to get around.
Who’s in charge? > The city council controls
our lives to keep us safe and comfortable
– and we like it.
Return to contents 1. overview > scenario 3: renew-abad page 14

15. scenario summary 4 urban form Energy > Local renewable energy
generation and decentralised grids have
communi-city Power has devolved to individuals and
communities; cities have become more
informal and sometimes chaotic centres
of creativity. For example, community-
superseded coal, gas and oil.
Resources > Cities have transformed to
produce more of their own food and deal
The world has turned to alternative energy, and organised vertical and small-scale locally with waste and water.
horticulture has flourished, with balconies,
transport is highly personalised with a huge variety roofs and the sides of buildings given Economy > Grassroots business and new
of transport modes competing for road space. over to growing food. technology compensate for protectionist
trade and slow global growth.
mobility Climate change > People and
communities adapt to climate change
Personal and individualised mobility is and reduce carbon, despite weak
important. Modes of transport proliferate global policy.
and people move about in a range of small
electric vehicles – souped-up bikes, covered Governance > Central coordination is
scooters, pod-cars and so on. Customisation weak and more power resides at the
is rife. Some people even build their vehicles community level using computer-based
locally from kits, using open-source designs, collaborative tools.
local materials and home-brewed biofuels.
The roads look chaotic with so many vehicle Social structures > It’s a more unequal
types and so much personalised transport world, but full of opportunities if you’re
– but somehow it all works, through smart able to grab them.
use of information technology to avoid
collisions and optimise routes. Values > People are less consumerist
and less status-driven; they look more
to religion and community.
highlights
Business > Business is more local and
Plant-powered public transport? > decentralised, and many global brands
‘Biobuses’ are one of the most popular are now extinct.
cheap ways to get around the city.
Technology > Rapid breakthroughs make
DIY everything? > 3D printers allow technology an exciting area of change,
anyone to be a homegrown manufacturer and many people are involved through
– from furniture to fashion. grassroots innovation and research.
Where did our centre go? > There is no
city centre any more, everyone has their
own very different neighbourhood.
Return to contents 1. overview > scenario 4: communi-city page 15

16. perspectives from our partners
Imagination in energy Transformation through technology A vision for Istanbul, Mumbai – Want to plan your own workshop?
and megacities around the world
“It is our conviction that mobility is central “Given the rate of change, our world will be Get a how-to guide for organising a
to the delivery of wider human benefits of a very different place by 2040. Engineering “Both Mumbai and Istanbul have grown sustainable urban mobility workshop
economic development, social interaction and technological innovations will transform phenomenally in the past two decades, and find out more about Istanbul
and freedom to explore our surroundings. urban living – in particular the way we both geographically and in population. and Mumbai in section 4: Plan
However, we believe also that these positive communicate and share information, as With this growth as a given, the scenarios your future now. Download it from:
benefits are entirely dependent on the the convergence of internet and mobile for both cities presented an elaborate www.forumforthefuture.org/projects/
extent to which mobility is both safe and technology becomes a reality. Expect imagination of our world 30 years from megacities-on-the-move
sustainable. The FIA Foundation’s work mobile networks to extend beyond human now, charted on the two crucial elements
– from promoting fuel efficiency in the world’s communication; everything that could benefit of our future in this world: fuel dominance
cars to working for the greatest possible from a wireless network is likely to have one; and governance structure.
safety on our roads – aims to ensure that it is. and connectivity will combine with energy,
water management, transport and health The future scenarios approach provides
The specific challenges in addressing an as more services are delivered online. a unique opportunity to plan for the long-
increasingly urban and intensively populated term and bring it into the present. EMBARQ
planet are complex. However, they centre Vodafone has participated in Megacities partnered with Forum for the Future on
around our ability to be efficient in our use on the Move because we believe we have workshops in Istanbul and Mumbai (read
of energy and imaginative in how we source a role to play in shaping solutions for the more about these in section 4 – Plan the
it. Of equal importance will be our capacity future. This project builds upon the issues future now).
to work together across the globe to find identified in our Future Agenda project
common and coordinated solutions. Our (www.futureagenda.org) and supports We believe it is urgent to abandon many
global response has not been impressive the work we have already done in other of the current planning practices and
so far. To the extent that this is due to a lack areas where we believe our products move to less energy intensive options in
of information and shared understanding, and services can help others make a preparation for 2040. Our hope is that
our hope is that this study will cast some difference, for example Carbon Connections the scenarios exercise will catalyse not
useful light into that darkness.” (www.vodafone.com/carbonconnections). only a discussion of transport and urban
development in Istanbul and Mumbai, but
Sheila Watson Although cities themselves have a also contribute to the discussion of energy
Director of Environment, FIA Foundation remarkable ability to innovate, it is difficult policies nationally and around the world.”
for urban planners to keep up with the
pace of change. This project is a valuable Sibel Bulay
resource for city authorities, businesses Director, EMBARQ Turkey
and policy makers, to allow them to think
beyond traditional solutions and consider Madhav Pai
different approaches.” Director, EMBARQ India
Nicola Woodhead Clayton Lane
Group Environment Manager, Vodafone Acting Director, EMBARQ
Return to contents 1. overview > perspectives from our partners page 16

17. 2. what’s your
destination?
megacities on the move

18. four scenarios for
urban mobility in 2040
The future is likely to be dramatically different from
today. To get the future we want, we need to be better
at understanding what it might look like, what will
shape it, and what is already happening today that
could affect it.
what are scenarios? how were the scenarios created?
Scenarios are explorations of alternative • How might our mobility needs and In order to create the scenarios, we went Scenario planning
futures. They are a tool to challenge, inspire aspirations change? through a number of key phases:
and support individuals and organisations • How might sustainability challenges Based on the key factors and trends we
to plan ahead. Scenarios are designed to such as resource constraints, climate Why 2040? then developed scenarios showing different
strengthen strategy and policy, advocate change impacts and social (in)equality possible outcomes for mobility in cities in the
long-term thinking and build a collaborative impact personal mobility in cities? We chose to examine the future of mobility in year 2040. Using these scenarios, we also
vision for a sustainable future. • What might be the modal mix of 2040 because urban infrastructure has a long created outlines of city-specific scenarios for
transport solutions? life, so setting a 30 year timeline provides Istanbul and Mumbai, suggesting what might
Scenarios are not predictions. We do not • Which of our mobility needs might enough time to plan for and deliver a new happen locally in each city within the context
think that any one scenario is more likely be met in ways other than transport generation of sustainable mobility solutions. of the global-level scenarios.
than the other, nor is our intention to (e.g. through virtual services or urban
prescribe one scenario as ‘best case’ or planning solutions)? Horizon-scanning research City workshops
‘worst case’. All scenarios should present
elements of a possible future, and present As part of this phase we undertook desk We conducted 2-day workshops in Istanbul
a realistic combination of positive and research as well as structured interviews with and Mumbai to validate the scenarios,
negative developments. more than 40 experts involved in different identify relevant challenges and opportunities
aspects of urban mobility from around the for the local context, as well as short,
The Megacities on the Move scenarios world – including stakeholders in the two medium and long-term solutions that could
are intended to present plausible future cities we had chosen to test the scenarios, be implemented. In particular we asked
developments, describing the challenges Istanbul and Mumbai. Our aim was to identify people to critique the scenarios, and tell us
and opportunities of personal mobility in current forces and uncertainties around what they thought were the most plausible
large cities in 2040. Each scenario covers urban mobility, as well as get interviewees’ outcomes and trends.
a range of issues and addresses a number perspectives on key factors and trends
of critical questions, including: shaping the future of mobility. Partner workshops
We also conducted workshops for the
project partners in an effort to explore
the implications of the scenarios for their
organisations, and identify options for
future strategy responses.
Return to contents 2. what’s your destination? > four scenarios for urban mobility in 2040 page 18

19. key variables: Fossil fuels dominant
energy sources and
global governance
Amongst the uncertainties, we identified two as the most critical in
influencing future mobility solutions: energy supply and demand, planned-opolis sprawl-ville
and governance systems. Our research indicated that these are the
most uncertain trends and have the greatest potential impact on the
future of urban mobility. We identified two very different outcomes for
each, and used this to construct the ‘axes’: the overall framework for
the scenarios that defines the key differences between the scenarios.
Axis 1: what kind of energy mix will be dominant?
Fossil fuels dominant: The world is still running on fossil fuels.
Although there are significant constraints in supply, a mix of mitigating
factors – including efficiency gains, clean-up mechanisms, and
supply augmentation through different sources such as shale gas
or tar sands – help maintain fossil fuel dominance.
Alternative energy dominant: Alternative energy sources have Top Bottom
been scaled up and are much more affordable. Conventional oil down up
supply has peaked. Simultaneously, a mix of cost and technology
breakthroughs in alternative energy generation spurs innovation
that changes the energy mix.
Axis 2: what kind of global governance framework
will we have?
Top down: Global governance frameworks are strong and well
coordinated. A convergence of opinion on key issues such as
climate change has led to the develop-ment of stronger institutions
and binding frameworks, and a more collaborative world order. renew-abad communi-city
Bottom up: Decentralised governance solutions are preferred
to global-level action. Trade relations are more regionalised, and
innovation happens in local power hubs. The world is focused on
self-sufficiency, resilience and localised solutions.
Alternative energy dominant
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20. scenario 1
planned-opolis
In a world of fossil fuels and expensive energy,
the only solution is tightly planned and controlled
urban transport.
2018 2023 2027
Most new coal and gas power stations have A high profile nuclear storage shelter leak Plans for new floating cities approved
CCS, with funds supporting this technology due to a rushed project further delays in Bangladesh and the Netherlands.
in developing countries. nuclear large scale generation.
timeline
2015 2020 2025 2035
A global climate deal is reached. Globetech, a major multinational company, City Corp takes over the management Global Food Council gets new
A framework of global cuts for 50% bans flying for business meetings and of Laos after a governance failure. powers to control farming.
(to 1990 levels) by 2050 is agreed, sees share prices rise sharply in the
with interim targets. following years.
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21. factors shaping mobility
Energy supply Resource use The economy Climate change responses
Centralised grids rely on gas-fired Strict planning and rationing ensure A strong, regulated economy Cities are replanned as extreme
power stations and carbon capture resources are used as efficiently invests in technology and measures are taken to decarbonise
and storage. as possible. infrastructure. the world.
A high carbon price makes energy very There is strong reliance on technological The economy in 2040 is quite strong, and The world relies on geo-engineering. ‘Carbon
expensive, but a lack of viable alternatives solutions and centralised planning to global trade continues to grow, although it scrubbers’ that take CO 2 directly out of
means fossil fuels – in particular shale gas overcome resource shortages. Water is is tightly regulated and sky-high oil prices the air are a common sight on city streets.
and methane hydrates – still dominate. commonly rationed. To maximise efficiency restrict the sort of goods that can be Many cities with high food risk have been
Investment has been focused on reducing the ‘Global Food Council’ dictates what traded. Import tariffs and subsidies have deliberately downsized and populations
energy demand and increasing efficiency. crops can be grown where in the world. been reduced. The US, China and Russia moved to new cities designed from scratch.
Nuclear energy has not scaled as expected, Consumption of energy-intensive meat dominate – the latter due to its land, oil, Floating city technologies pioneered by the
held back by technical delays, escalating is restricted. Tight monitoring of raw coal and forest resources. Spending on Dutch have spread to other rich city areas
costs and a shortage of skills. Very materials such as metals, wood or paper, technology and R&D, especially on energy such as Hong Kong. Cities are re-engineered
efficient carbon capture and storage (CCS) ensures that resources are reused efficiency measures, is very high. Growth for natural cooling – tree-planting, green
technology is necessary to keep carbon and recycled. Biotechnology and has allowed significant investment in new roofs and natural ventilation are common.
emissions down. nanotechnology have helped engineers infrastructure, including large urban projects.
and scientists develop new materials Governance
with exceptional physical properties.
One-size-fits-all governance is
effective but reduces freedoms.
Global governance is well-coordinated and
effective. There are agreements on climate
change, displaced people and global
agriculture. Global agreements are quickly
implemented at a national level. Technology
plays a significant role in supporting
governance. Cities are often run by
specialist, city-governing companies. These
companies bid for very lucrative long-term
contracts and may run dozens of major cities
worldwide. This means that effective policies
developed in one city can quickly spread
around the world, but it also means that very
different cities tend to be run in the same
way, despite local differences. This leads to
complaints about loss of national sovereignty
and individual freedoms.
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22. continued…
Social trends Human values The business landscape The role of technology
A fairer but less A hard-working but Big business is everywhere, A hi-tech world of integrated
individualistic society. high-trust world. and even governs some cities. systems and virtualisation.
Inequality between countries has decreased People rely on new technology to solve Big business is thriving in the globalised Technology penetrates every aspect of life.
as the global economy has rebalanced. problems. They are also, in general, very economy, operating global brands, with The natural environment is continuously
Inequality within countries has also accepting of government or business localised distribution and supply chains monitored. Many people, especially the
decreased, though in most societies there intervention in their lives, and look to large due to the high price of oil. Business plays young, live much of their lives through
is still a persistent underclass and elite. institutions to provide security and stability a major role in government and in people’s avatars – online personas – working and
Individual freedoms have been eroded. in an unpredictable world. There is a strong lives. For example, City Corp is a global forming relationships, learning, seeking
Societies tend to be less diverse than in feeling of international solidarity. firm that specialises in governing cities advice and spending leisure time. This
the past. Civil society is less vibrant and (transport, energy, healthcare and so on) means there is less need to travel. Smart
there is less protest and political violence. The car is no longer seen as a status symbol as efficiently as possible. It uses computer technology is everywhere and helps to
by many. Right across the world, people models to design integrated systems that integrate diverse systems, such as energy,
are very willing to participate in coordinated can be adjusted and applied to any large food and waste. Most vehicles communicate
mass transit systems. The 9-to-5 no longer city in the world. More and more services with each other, can drive themselves,
exists since we are always ‘logged on’, are delivered virtually. and use augmented reality technology.
although we also work more. In some
megacities, alienation and depression is
a big issue due to much ‘virtualisation’,
work fatigue, and the fragmentation of
traditional social units. Special interest
groups are popular among older people,
calling for a renaissance of low-tech,
face-to-face connectivity in cities.
Return to contents 2. what’s your destination? > planned-opolis page 22