Mega Cities Full Report


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Megacities on the move. Your guide to the future of sustainable urban mobility in 2040.

Forum for the Future is the UK’s leading sustainable development NGO. We work internationally with government, business and public service providers, helping them to develop strategies to achieve success through sustainability, to deliver products and services which enhance people’s lives and are better for the environment, and to lead the way to a better world.

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Mega Cities Full Report

  1. 1. megacitieson the move your guide to the future of sustainable urban mobility in 2040
  2. 2. Forum for the Future is the UK’s leading sustainable development NGO. We work internationally with government, business and public service providers, helping them to develop strategies to achieve success through sustainability, to deliver products and services which enhance people’s lives and are better for the environment, and to lead the way to a better world. www.forumforthefuture.orgMegacities on the Move has been led by Forum for the Future Authors: Director, EMBARQ Turkey; Nancy Kete, EMBARQForum for the Future in partnership with Ivana Gazibara, James Goodman and former Director, EMBARQ; Clayton Lane, The EMBARQ global network catalysesEMBARQ and was funded by Vodafone Peter Madden. Acting Director, EMBARQ. environmentally and financially sustainableand the FIA Foundation for the Automobile transport solutions to improve quality ofand Society. Forum for the Future support team: Special thanks also to the many people life in cities. Since 2002, the network has Chris Dewey, Stephanie Draper, Rupert who contributed to the project – through grown to include five Centres for SustainableDate of publication: Fausset, Joy Green, Joe Hall, Ruth interviews, workshops and peer reviews. Transport, located in Mexico, Brazil, India,November 2010 Harwood, Clare Jenkinson, David Mason, Turkey and the Andean Region, that work Gustavo Montes de Oca, Nathalie Nathe, For a full list please refer to the Appendix. together with local transport authorities toRegistered office: Will Nitch-Smith, Kate O’Hagan, Hanna reduce pollution, improve public health,Overseas House Plant, Francesca Rutherford, Ulrike Stein, FIA Foundation and create safe, accessible and attractive19–23 Ironmonger Row Claire Wyatt. The FIA Foundation is an independent urban public spaces. www.embarq.orgLondon EC1V 3QN UK registered charity which manages Special thanks to our partners: and supports an international programmeCompany No. 2959712 Sheila Watson, Director of Environment, of activities promoting road safety,VAT Reg. No. 6777475 70 The FIA Foundation; Nicola Woodhead, environmental protection and sustainable DownloadCharity No. 1040519 Group Environment Manager, Vodafone; mobility, as well as funding specialist Chris Burgess, Corporate Responsibility motor sport safety research. All the Megacities on the MoveDesign: Director, Vodafone; Caroline Dewing, resources Senior Manager, Communications Strategy, Vodafone; Samaresh Parida, Director, Vodafone megacities-on-the-move Strategy, Vodafone Essar; Prema Shrikrishna, Vodafone is one of the world’s largest mobile Manager – Corporate Responsibility, communications companies by revenue Vodafone Essar; Tugba Unal, Corporate with approximately 347 million proportionate For more information on Megacities on Affairs, Vodafone Turkey; Prajna Rao, customers as at 30 June 2010. Vodafone the Move or to organise a workshop Urban Planner, EMBARQ (CST India); currently has equity interests in over 30 please email Ivana Gazibara at: Madhav Pai, Director, EMBARQ India; countries across five continents and over megacitiesonthemove@forumforthefuture. Ahmet Birsel, Programme Manager, 40 partner networks worldwide. For more org, or call +44 (0)20 7324 3673. EMBARQ (SUM Turkey); Sibel Bulay, information, please visit Return to contents about page 2
  3. 3. contents1. 2. 3. 4.overview p4 what’s your destination? what can you do? six plan the future now four scenarios for urban solutions for sustainable how to run a workshopForeword p5 mobility in 2040 p17 urban mobility p36 using the scenarios p49How can you use this toolkit? p7 What are scenarios? p18 1. Integrate, integrate, integrate p38 Sample workshop agendaWhat’s ahead? and exercises p50Factors shaping the future p8 How were the scenarios created? p18 2. Make the poor a priority p40 Case study: Istanbul p56What can you do? Key variables: energy sources 3. Go beyond the car p41Six solutions for sustainable and global governance p19 Case study: Mumbai p60urban mobility p11 4. Switch on to IT networks p43 The scenarios: Appendix: Thank yous p64Scenario summaries p12 Planned-opolis p20 5. ‘Refuel’ our vehicles p45 Sprawl-ville p24Perspectives from our partners p16 Renew-abad p28 6. Change people’s behaviour p47 Communi-city p32scenarios: planned-opolis p20 sprawl-ville p24 renew-abad p28 communi-city p32 contents page 3
  4. 4. 1. overviewmegacities on the move
  5. 5. foreword – the future Megacities on the Move, a collaboration between Forum for the Future, the FIA impacts of changing weather patterns. Throughout human history we have built ourof the world is urban Foundation, Vodafone and EMBARQ, can help you find answers to these questions. It is a toolkit designed to help governments, major settlements on rivers, estuaries and coasts. Sea level rise and more frequent and intense storms and floods are just some of companies and civil society organisations the impacts cities will have to contend with.How will people travel in the cities of the future? understand the challenges of the future andHow will billions of city-dwellers access what start planning for sustainable city living. It is clear that people must find sustainablethey need without putting intolerable strains ways to live and travel in cities. We won’t Humankind recently reached a historic survive without new thinking and moreon the planet? How can we plan now for more tipping point: for the first time more people creative approaches. We will needsustainable ways of life in a radically different world? live in cities than outside them. This trend completely new ways to produce and is set to intensify. By 2040 two in three deliver goods and services, consume people on the planet will be city-dwellers.1 and move about. Cities are in many ways There will be many more of us, as world places of opportunity – hot-houses for population grows by two billion, and far economic, social and cultural innovation more megacities, primarily in Asia, Africa – so they are likely to be the places where and Latin America. we find new solutions to mobility. The social, environmental and economic implications of this will be enormous. Tokyo skyline All over the globe, cities need to start What is ‘mobility’? planning now to radically re-engineer their infrastructures to cope with much larger In this toolkit, ‘mobility’ means more populations than they currently support. than just transport. Our definition of mobility is a means of access But cities do not exist in isolation. They – to goods, services, people and will need to succeed in a world where information. This includes physical key resources are in short supply: from movement, but also other solutions oil scarcity and rising energy prices to such as ICT-based platforms, more competition between biofuels and food effective public service delivery production, there are major challenges provision, and urban design that ahead that face us all. There will be improves accessibility. To plan for critical questions about how we manage people’s needs in the megacities these resources, who controls them, and of the future, we need to look at all who can afford them. of these aspects together. Overlaying – and intensifying – all of these pressures is climate change. Cities will have What are ‘megacities’? to deal with both the policy responses, such Megacities are urban areas with a as more expensive carbon, and the physical population in excess of 10 million people. For more information, see: 1 United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision, htm (accessed on 24 September, 2010). Return to contents 1. overview > foreword page 5
  6. 6. Megacities on the Move offers six sustainable “ The goal is not transport, but accessibility ULTra PRT, © www.ultraprt.commobility solutions that we can all begin – more productivity, more mobility, moreacting on today, from integrated planning, beauty in one day.”to looking beyond the car, to improved use > Sue Zielinski, MD, Sustainable Mobilityof technology. But more than anything, & Accessibility Research & Transformation,we want you to take this toolkit and apply University of Michiganit to your own context. Through research,interviews, and workshops in Istanbul andMumbai, we have collected the most excitingthinking about sustainable mobility. We haveused this to create four scenarios that paintchallenging but realistic pictures of what thefuture could hold. They enable you to exploreyour future, whoever you are, wherever youare – and shape your own response.The future of the world is urban. Because ofthe rapid modernisation of countries such asBrazil, China, India and Turkey, we are seeingthe largest rural-urban migration in history.How that urban development happens willlock-in behaviour for decades to come, so itneeds to be sustainable. It is no exaggerationto say that the global race for sustainabilitywill be won or lost in our cities.Peter Madden, Madhav Pai,CEO, Forum for the Future Director, EMBARQ IndiaClayton Lane, Sheila Watson, Megacities on the MoveActing Director, EMBARQ Director of Environment, The FIA Foundation Read on to find out more about the challenges and solutions of the future. Download all the Megacities on the Move resources at: www. Bulay, Nicola Woodhead, megacities-on-the-moveDirector, EMBARQ Turkey Group Environment Manager, Vodafone Return to contents 1. overview > foreword page 6
  7. 7. how can you 1. Overview 4. Plan the future now: How to run a workshop using the scenariosuse this toolkit? You can use this section to introduce your colleagues, business partners and clients to the issues. One of the best ways to get engaged in the challenges you face is to organise a workshop. This section gives specificMegacities on the Move is designed to be a practical 2. What’s your destination? Four guidance on how to plan a workshop ontoolkit which can help public bodies, companies and scenarios for urban mobility in 2040 the future of urban mobility, using the fourcivil society organisations develop strategies which scenarios as a starting point to explore Want to explore what the future may hold issues relevant to you and develop a strategywill enable people to live and travel more sustainably and test your strategy? Our scenarios and action plan. In May and June 2010in the major cities of the 21st century. It aims to help – Planned-opolis, Sprawl-ville, Renew-abad, Forum for the Future ran similar workshopsyou understand the key long-term issues better, apply and Communi-city - are four possible visions in Mumbai and Istanbul – you can see of urban mobility in the world of 2040. They the highlights from this process which maythem to your own thinking, and inspire innovative can be a very effective tool for understanding give you ideas for your own The toolkit contains four sections and a set how complex factors may play out andof scenario animations. shape very different futures, challenging Scenario animations: and inspiring organisations to plan for more Bringing the future to life effective solutions. They are designed to strengthen strategy and policy, advocate We have brought the scenarios to life in long-term thinking and build collaborative four short, vivid and compelling animations visions for a sustainable future. examining mobility challenges and solutions as we follow a day in the life of an ordinary 3. What can you do? Six solutions woman in each of the four worlds. for sustainable urban mobility Animations give a snapshot of each scenario and can be a very effective way of engaging If you are motivated to bring innovation into your audience in the subject. your strategic planning, these are actions you can take now to help create the sustainable urban mobility systems of the future. This section includes practical examples of how these solutions are already being put into practice around the world; from integrated cities to intelligent traffic systems, automotive technology, car-free days and virtual meetings. Return to contents 1. overview > how can you use this toolkit? page 7
  8. 8. what’s ahead? factors shaping what can we be more certain about? most of Europe and North America. These changes will put increasing pressurethe future of urban mobility Climate change on mobility in cities, and make it more difficult to ensure a growing and ageing urban population can access affordable mobility solutions – such as public transportWhat does the future hold for large cities of the 21st The scientific consensus is that climate and other essential services.century? We can be more or less certain about how change is a reality and that it is extremelycertain factors will play out. What we are certain of likely to be the result of human activity. We “ In an optimistic scenario, cities will have are already seeing the effects: we continue to planned to create an urban environmentis that the responses to these factors will be critical break temperature records; extreme weather for people. They will make their planningin determining the nature of mobility in our cities. events are increasingly common; and the and infrastructure investments based on melting of Arctic ice may now be irreversible. accessibility for people.” Even if we manage to take early global action > Nancy Kete, former Director, EMBARQ to decarbonise our economies, the pollution we emit now will stay in the atmosphere Resource constraints São Paulo – unless deliberately removed by human action – for decades.2 This growing global population also has an increasing taste for resource-intensive Climate change will affect key aspects of goods such as meat and cars. The result our lives and will have profound impacts is exploding global demand for water and on our cities in particular. Heatwaves or land for crops, livestock, domestic use flash flooding, for example, will impact the and biofuels; fossil fuels to power transport comfort, cost and reliability of daily urban life. or production; and minerals, metals and But climate change will also affect the vast forests for manufacturing. areas, both near and far, that cities rely on for supplies such as water, food or energy. All of these resources are already heavily Ultimately, climate change could affect cities’ exploited, and many face the possibility of basic ability to function. severe depletion or even exhaustion in the first half of the century. Scarcity will lead to “ Climate change will change the game, competition and high, volatile resource prices bringing forward ‘the first predictable – it seems likely that the age of cheap oil industrial revolution’.” and cheap energy is over, for example. This > Paul Dickinson, Executive Chairman, will have a knock-on effect on the cost and Carbon Disclosure Project availability of transport and other goods and services essential to everyday needs in cities. Demographic trends Urban societies can respond in different ways: through technological innovation, We can be reasonably certain about behaviour change, economic development, population increases over the next 30 migration patterns and more. years: from 6.8 billion people in 2010 to 2 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, http:// approximately 8.8 billion in 2040.3 This, The Royal Society, http://royalsociety. growth won’t be evenly distributed: most org/climate-change/. 3 of it will occur in the cities of Africa, China, UN Department of Social and Economic Affairs, World Population Prospects, 2008 revision: http://esa. India and Latin America. China will also be (accessed on 24 dealing with an ageing population, as will September 2010). Return to contents 1. overview > what’s ahead? page 8
  9. 9. what are we less certain about?Energy supply and demand Global economy Climate change responses “ Governments make a lot of money onIt is highly uncertain how societies will Economic growth creates a spiral of greater The response to climate change is likely to fuel duty, and this would be displacedrespond to the exploding demand yet demand for mobility, and greater demand deeply affect how cities of the future look, by electrons if electric vehicles werestagnating supply of energy, especially oil. for goods and services. Providing more feel and operate. The Megacities on the mainstreamed – so there will have toBut it is clear the energy mix that’s in place goods and services requires more transport, Move scenarios all show a different balance be a profound shift in terms of howin 2040 will determine what types of mobility support and staff; increased wealth allows of measures to adapt to climate change and governments generate income, andsystems we have in our cities. For example, people to travel more and encourages more reduce further emissions. For example, in the structure tax and incentives.”if there is a large-scale shift to renewable expensive modes of transport such as the carefully planned and centralised world of > Tom Briggs, Vice President, Policy andenergy, this could favour electric, solar or car; and growth in property prices leads to Planned-opolis, streets are lined with carbon Communications, BP Alternative Energyhydrogen-powered vehicles. Or if energy longer commutes. scrubbers that suck carbon dioxide out ofis expensive and inaccessible to most, this the atmosphere, and neighbourhoods arecould favour mass transit over personal We have come to take growth for granted, designed from scratch to maximise natural Social structuresmotorised transport. People’s lifestyle but could resource limitations or climate cooling. In contrast, the cities of Sprawl-choices, such as opting for virtual services change bring the seemingly endless ville are designed by the rich for the rich, Traditionally, most societies have favouredinstead of travel, could directly affect energy expansion cycle to an end? Or, might lifestyle who effectively live in a city within the city, the family as the core unit, often withdemand levels in cities too. changes alter how we think about growth protected from the floods and heat to which strong communities surrounding the family. and wellbeing, affecting everything from the poor are exposed. These communities were typically more“ By 2040, the grid will be different: we consumption patterns to modal choices? self-sufficient and had lower levels of will be burning electrons rather than Governance mobility. Today, many cities are becoming hydrocarbons. Those electrons will “ In places like Istanbul and Mumbai, with more atomised spaces, with a huge influx be greener, so there will be a lot more large populations with rapid economic There are big gaps in global governance of diverse groups and more emphasis on renewable energy generation.” growth, it is absolutely key that they systems on major issues including energy, individuals. This could spell the decline> Gordon Feller, Director of Urban focus on restraining growth in vehicle food, water and climate change. If these are of traditional community structures and Innovations at Cisco Systems use. It’s arguably the hardest and the not improved, or if governance deteriorates, an emergence of new types of community most important challenge confronting our countries and cities will be more for the ‘urban age’ – more networked,Resource use these cities.” vulnerable to external shocks. City-level flexible, and mobile, but also more > Dan Sperling, author of “Two Billion Cars: governance is also critical, particularly when temporary. Equally, there is a possibilityMobility is essentially about the ability Driving Towards Sustainability” it comes to mobility – for example, to develop that we might see a reassertion of traditionalto access goods, services, people and well-designed public transport systems, community and family structures in theinformation. Therefore the future response maintain order and support the integration cities of the future, whether as a backlashto resource scarcity will have a huge of various mobility networks. against too much individualism and socialimpact on urban mobility and quality of life. fragmentation, or as a result of resource andIf there is strategic investment in energy, It is highly uncertain how the quality, climate and water supply infrastructure, effectiveness and structure of governancefor example, cities will be better able to systems will unfold. Different approachesensure their citizens can access essential to governance could profoundly affectgoods and services. If there are inadequate mobility in cities – from tightly controlledresponses to resource scarcity, life in and networked mobility systems on one endmegacities of the future will be tough, of the spectrum, to a chaotic proliferationwith rapid population growth but too few of mobility solutions in a world with poorresources to meet people’s demands. governance on the other. Return to contents 1. overview > what’s ahead? page 9
  10. 10. Values Business Technological development Urban formThe 20th century was the age of the car. It Future trends such as climate change Technological change has reached an Currently we are on a pathway to ever-became a status symbol for those who had impacts, resource constraints, technological unprecedented speed, and this is likely to increasing urban sprawl, and in some casesit, and an aspiration for those who could not innovation, or cost pressures on public continue into the future – though innovation megacities merging with neighbouring citiesafford it. In the age of rising middle classes services, will present a number of risks could also be stifled as a result of various and towns. These mega-regions, formedin emerging economies, demand for the car and opportunities to businesses operating economic or political factors, as in our by megacities that stretch hundreds ofmay explode – as we are already seeing in in cities. The typical urban mobility Sprawl-ville scenario. Many place faith in kilometres – sometimes across state bordersmarkets such as China. Managed badly, model is state-funded public transport technology, and indeed new vehicle systems – form vast belts of high population densitythis could have detrimental impacts on the systems, competing and combining with do have the potential to reduce energy and and economic power and create hugequality of life in cities – from air pollution, to privately owned cars and taxis running carbon impacts dramatically, especially challenges for governance and mobility.congestion and road safety, to exacerbation on public roads. from cars. However, it is much harder toof climate impacts. predict what technological developments However, this trend is not inevitable and This could change in a number of different we will have in 2040, and even how influential it is possible to reverse it. For example,However, future generations may have a ways. There will almost certainly be these will be compared to other factors, from many urban planners and transport officialsdifferent set of mobility preferences. Today’s opportunities to provide digital alternatives policy to behaviour change. today advocate replacing low densitychildren will have grown up with immersive to physical mobility – from employment, to car-centric cities and zoned land use withnetworking technology, and are likely to be retail, to leisure. New business models could Certainly, ICT-based innovation will be a denser, integrated urban villages basedmuch more comfortable spending time in emerge in personal mobility as well, such prominent feature of our lives, particularly around mixed land use, public transportvirtual spaces. There are already signs in as today’s urban car clubs. Office spaces in increasingly networked cities, where the and walkability. Our scenarios reflect thesesome cities that the popularity of the car and the way we work could change, and ability to be permanently connected could different a status symbol is declining, especially private sector provision could extend bring better access to goods, services andas congestion problems get worse and further into areas traditionally addressed other people with less need for physical “ In the past 100 years, the automobile hasalternative status symbols (such as smart by governments – from public transport transport. Transport technology innovations shaped the city rather than cities shapingtechnology devices) emerge. to wider infrastructure. might include further changes in vehicle the automobile. In the future the opposite design, propulsion systems and energy will be the case: cities will start to shape“ The UK government banned smoking sources to address congestion, carbon mobility.” in public places and nobody batted an emissions and safety. The most anticipated > Chris Borroni-Bird, Director of Advanced eyelid. A generation ago, this would trend is for new electric vehicles, including Technology Vehicle Concepts, GM have been unthinkable. At the moment, low carbon power-trains similar to electric mobility is different. There is no sense cars. Other possibilities include buses or that mobility causes harm. Indeed it is cars driven by locally produced hydrogen seen as a good thing if you can afford or biofuels. it. Maybe attitudes to travel will change like they did to smoking.” “ The convergence between cities and other> Ben Plowden, Director of Integrated areas will grow as we start to spend time in Programme Delivery, Transport for London ‘virtual cities’.” > Guy Summers, R&D Collaboration Manager, Vodafone Cyclist in Mumbai Return to contents 1. overview > what’s ahead? page 10
  11. 11. what can you do?six solutions forsustainable urban mobilityLooking 30 years into the future, the challenges– and the solutions – can seem a long way off.But everyone involved in urban mobility can takeaction today, whether you are a government, cityauthority, urban planner, transport provider, inbusiness or the public sector. High speed train1. Integrate, integrate, integrate 3. Go beyond the car 5. ‘Refuel’ our vehicles Want to see how this is happening in the real world?Transport, urban planning, business, public Current growth rates in car ownership are As oil becomes more scarce, expensive andservices, energy and food supply can no simply unsustainable: there are already one a security risk, we will need to implement Please see section 3 for more detailslonger be considered in isolation. Together, billion cars in the world, projected to grow greater energy efficiency measures, as and practical examples of howwe need to create integrated mobility to two billion within a few decades.4 We well as shift to powering our vehicles with these six solutions are already beingsystems that will provide people with choice, need alternative ways of getting around, renewable, low-carbon fuel sources. We will designed, put into practice, or scaledflexibility and seamless connectivity whether and we need to design for people, not cars. need significant investment in battery and up around the world: from integratedthey are travelling from one place to another We will need urban neighbourhoods with fuel technology to seize this opportunity and cities to intelligent traffic systems,or accessing the things they need virtually. the infrastructure to serve local communities take alternative energy-powered vehicles biofuels to battery technology, and dense developments that prevent further to scale over the next few decades. Most car-free days to travel-free virtual2. Make the poor a priority sprawl, are easy to walk around, and provide vehicle technology experts agree that meetings. Download it from: access to key goods and services. advanced technologies also have enormous systems must work for rich and potential to improve fuel efficiency. megacities-on-the-movepoor alike, to ensure everyone has access to 4. Switch on to IT networksgoods, services and job opportunities. Cities 6. Change people’s behaviouralready have many people on lower incomes There is enormous potential for informationand this trend will only increase. Tailored technology to reduce the need for physical Many of our future challenges are shaped bymobility solutions must be designed to meet movement by enabling urban dwellers to people’s values, behaviour and preferences.their needs. access more and more services online. Using We need to think about ways to influence IT networks to connect and coordinate cars mass behaviour and social norms in positive and public transport can also help reduce ways to promote low-carbon, healthier urban traffic congestion and accident risks. lifestyles. Future leading cities will plan today to influence lifestyles rather than simply relying on additional road infrastructure and 4 Daniel Sperling and Deborah Gordon, Two Billion modes of transport. Cars, Oxford University Press, New York, 2009. Return to contents 1. overview > what can you do? page 11
  12. 12. scenario summary: urban form Energy > Centralised grids rely on gas- fired power stations and carbon captureplanned-opolis Because energy is very expensive, cities are highly managed, with limited personal mobility and efficient public transport networks. In some cases, cities are and storage. Resources > Strict planning and rationing ensure resources are used as efficientlyIn a world of fossil fuels and expensive downsized or even designed and built as possible. from scratch. Floating cities are alsoenergy, the only solution is tightly taking off in coastal areas as a key climate Economy > A strong, regulated economyplanned and controlled urban transport. adaptation strategy. invests in technology and infrastructure. Climate change > Cities are replanned mobility as extreme measures are taken to decarbonise the world. Mobility choices are constrained. People have allowed ICT and the advent of ‘virtual Governance > One-size-fits-all city spaces’ to replace a large portion governance is effective, but reduces of physical travel. Many cities ban cars freedom. in central areas to meet carbon targets. Personal vehicles are available only to Social structures > Society is fairer the wealthy, so the average citizen moves but less individualistic. around the city using tightly controlled and networked public transport systems, and Values > It is a hard-working but high- by walking or cycling through strictly non- trust world. motorised zones. Business > Big business is everywhere, and even governs some cities. highlights Technology > We live in a hi-tech world Feeling hot? > People keep cool under the of integrated systems and virtualisation. ten million trees the city has planted. What’s on the menu? > The Global Food Council can tell you – it decides what food is grown in which region. Need to get away? > Millions of people now live in floating cities and millions more escape daily to virtual cities like ‘London 2.0’. Return to contents 1. overview > scenario 1: planned-opolis page 12
  13. 13. scenario summary: urban form Energy > Oil production peaked around 2030 but transport still uses fossil fuelsprawl-ville The city is a great fragmented sprawl. There are huge, low-density suburbs, freeways to connect them, and commuter jams. In the periphery of the city there – particularly gas – and focuses on efficiency. Resources > Resource scarcity hasThe city is dominated by fossil fuel-powered cars. are numerous ‘failed’ developments, lowered the quality of life for the urban built too far from public transport and masses in this elite-controlled world.The elite still gets around, but most urban therefore unaffordable to urban commutersdwellers face poor transport infrastructure. now that oil prices are high. They either Economy > The global economy is become ghetto areas for poorer people stagnant, susceptible to protectionism or are reborn as local communities trying and shrinking supply chains. to provide their own services. Climate change > Short-term thinking rules as people focus on adapting and mobility protecting their property. In urban areas, the car-dominant model Governance > Cities are governed by and persists, although the average personal for the elites – they maintain just enough vehicle is now an ultra-efficient hybrid or of the basic infrastructure to minimise diesel car. As the poor are increasingly public disorder. unable to afford the daily car commute, urban ghetto areas spread in the city core Social structures > It’s a less equal world and informal paratransit 5 services spring where the informal economy prospers. up to serve community needs. People begin to alter their commute to address daily Values > Tension is growing as people needs: nomad businessmen sit in traffic in lose faith in consumerism and the world armoured vehicles, working while moving is increasingly polarised into religious and slowly from meeting to meeting; many of ethnic extremes. the cars bought by the emerging global middle classes become driveway trophies Business > Business is powerful – with rather than a practical means of transport, an expanded role in society as a result of as people return to buses and bicycles. less public service provision – but it is less accountable. highlights Technology > There are efficiency gains but few major breakthroughs. Where’s my car? > Everywhere! Cars are still in favour and still the ultimate status symbol. Don’t like the jam? > It’s a 24-hour city 5 An alternative mode of flexible passenger – of never-ending congestion. transportation that does not follow fixed routes or schedules. Typically mini-buses are used to Fill up the tank? > Businessmen get provide paratransit service, but share taxis and jitneys are also important providers. For more around in tank-like armoured cars to information, see the Wikipedia entry on paratransit: protect themselves. Return to contents 1. overview > scenario 2: sprawl-ville page 13
  14. 14. scenario summary 3 urban form Energy > It’s a brave new world where we have rapidly embraced renewable energy.renew-abad The age of urban sprawl is over: cities are becoming more densely populated as they set boundaries for growth. City states have re-emerged as powerful forces to Resources > There’s a shortage of food and land, and resource use is strictly regulated.The world has turned to alternative energy, be reckoned with. Neighbourhoods are organised around hubs providing integrated Economy > Economic power has shiftedand high-tech, clean, well-planned transport services from in-house energy generation south to China, India and their allies.helps everyone get around. to vehicle charging points to community centres and flexible offices. Climate change > An early global deal on climate change means that the most dangerous impacts were averted. mobility Governance > Strict governance holds On city streets, many more personal sway in nation-states and city-states alike. vehicles are electric or hybrid, and electric rail and buses are the top choice for public Social structures > The rich-poor gap transport. Energy continues to be relatively has narrowed within societies, though expensive, so people often switch between many regions have been left behind in the personal vehicles, public transport, walking low carbon race. and cycling. The infrastructure has been massively upgraded in many cities to Values > People value simplicity and encourage this. Sophisticated augmented authenticity. reality services reduce the need for physical travel, and almost every aspect of transport Business > Business provides low- is guided by technology. impact services in collaboration with governments. highlights Technology > Innovation is driven and regulated by the public sector. There have Waiting for the train? > There are ultra-high- been important breakthroughs, including speed rail links connecting every suburb. in electric vehicle battery technology. Drive off into the sunset? > Solar scooters are one of the popular ways to get around. Who’s in charge? > The city council controls our lives to keep us safe and comfortable – and we like it. Return to contents 1. overview > scenario 3: renew-abad page 14
  15. 15. scenario summary 4 urban form Energy > Local renewable energy generation and decentralised grids havecommuni-city Power has devolved to individuals and communities; cities have become more informal and sometimes chaotic centres of creativity. For example, community- superseded coal, gas and oil. Resources > Cities have transformed to produce more of their own food and dealThe world has turned to alternative energy, and organised vertical and small-scale locally with waste and water. horticulture has flourished, with balconies,transport is highly personalised with a huge variety roofs and the sides of buildings given Economy > Grassroots business and newof transport modes competing for road space. over to growing food. technology compensate for protectionist trade and slow global growth. mobility Climate change > People and communities adapt to climate change Personal and individualised mobility is and reduce carbon, despite weak important. Modes of transport proliferate global policy. and people move about in a range of small electric vehicles – souped-up bikes, covered Governance > Central coordination is scooters, pod-cars and so on. Customisation weak and more power resides at the is rife. Some people even build their vehicles community level using computer-based locally from kits, using open-source designs, collaborative tools. local materials and home-brewed biofuels. The roads look chaotic with so many vehicle Social structures > It’s a more unequal types and so much personalised transport world, but full of opportunities if you’re – but somehow it all works, through smart able to grab them. use of information technology to avoid collisions and optimise routes. Values > People are less consumerist and less status-driven; they look more to religion and community. highlights Business > Business is more local and Plant-powered public transport? > decentralised, and many global brands ‘Biobuses’ are one of the most popular are now extinct. cheap ways to get around the city. Technology > Rapid breakthroughs make DIY everything? > 3D printers allow technology an exciting area of change, anyone to be a homegrown manufacturer and many people are involved through – from furniture to fashion. grassroots innovation and research. Where did our centre go? > There is no city centre any more, everyone has their own very different neighbourhood. Return to contents 1. overview > scenario 4: communi-city page 15
  16. 16. perspectives from our partnersImagination in energy Transformation through technology A vision for Istanbul, Mumbai – Want to plan your own workshop? and megacities around the world“It is our conviction that mobility is central “Given the rate of change, our world will be Get a how-to guide for organising ato the delivery of wider human benefits of a very different place by 2040. Engineering “Both Mumbai and Istanbul have grown sustainable urban mobility workshopeconomic development, social interaction and technological innovations will transform phenomenally in the past two decades, and find out more about Istanbuland freedom to explore our surroundings. urban living – in particular the way we both geographically and in population. and Mumbai in section 4: PlanHowever, we believe also that these positive communicate and share information, as With this growth as a given, the scenarios your future now. Download it from:benefits are entirely dependent on the the convergence of internet and mobile for both cities presented an elaborate to which mobility is both safe and technology becomes a reality. Expect imagination of our world 30 years from megacities-on-the-movesustainable. The FIA Foundation’s work mobile networks to extend beyond human now, charted on the two crucial elements– from promoting fuel efficiency in the world’s communication; everything that could benefit of our future in this world: fuel dominancecars to working for the greatest possible from a wireless network is likely to have one; and governance on our roads – aims to ensure that it is. and connectivity will combine with energy, water management, transport and health The future scenarios approach providesThe specific challenges in addressing an as more services are delivered online. a unique opportunity to plan for the long-increasingly urban and intensively populated term and bring it into the present. EMBARQplanet are complex. However, they centre Vodafone has participated in Megacities partnered with Forum for the Future onaround our ability to be efficient in our use on the Move because we believe we have workshops in Istanbul and Mumbai (readof energy and imaginative in how we source a role to play in shaping solutions for the more about these in section 4 – Plan theit. Of equal importance will be our capacity future. This project builds upon the issues future now).to work together across the globe to find identified in our Future Agenda projectcommon and coordinated solutions. Our ( and supports We believe it is urgent to abandon manyglobal response has not been impressive the work we have already done in other of the current planning practices andso far. To the extent that this is due to a lack areas where we believe our products move to less energy intensive options inof information and shared understanding, and services can help others make a preparation for 2040. Our hope is thatour hope is that this study will cast some difference, for example Carbon Connections the scenarios exercise will catalyse notuseful light into that darkness.” ( only a discussion of transport and urban development in Istanbul and Mumbai, butSheila Watson Although cities themselves have a also contribute to the discussion of energyDirector of Environment, FIA Foundation remarkable ability to innovate, it is difficult policies nationally and around the world.” for urban planners to keep up with the pace of change. This project is a valuable Sibel Bulay resource for city authorities, businesses Director, EMBARQ Turkey and policy makers, to allow them to think beyond traditional solutions and consider Madhav Pai different approaches.” Director, EMBARQ India Nicola Woodhead Clayton Lane Group Environment Manager, Vodafone Acting Director, EMBARQ Return to contents 1. overview > perspectives from our partners page 16
  17. 17. 2. what’s your destination? megacities on the move
  18. 18. four scenarios forurban mobility in 2040The future is likely to be dramatically different fromtoday. To get the future we want, we need to be betterat understanding what it might look like, what willshape it, and what is already happening today thatcould affect it.what are scenarios? how were the scenarios created?Scenarios are explorations of alternative • How might our mobility needs and In order to create the scenarios, we went Scenario planningfutures. They are a tool to challenge, inspire aspirations change? through a number of key phases:and support individuals and organisations • How might sustainability challenges Based on the key factors and trends weto plan ahead. Scenarios are designed to such as resource constraints, climate Why 2040? then developed scenarios showing differentstrengthen strategy and policy, advocate change impacts and social (in)equality possible outcomes for mobility in cities in thelong-term thinking and build a collaborative impact personal mobility in cities? We chose to examine the future of mobility in year 2040. Using these scenarios, we alsovision for a sustainable future. • What might be the modal mix of 2040 because urban infrastructure has a long created outlines of city-specific scenarios for transport solutions? life, so setting a 30 year timeline provides Istanbul and Mumbai, suggesting what mightScenarios are not predictions. We do not • Which of our mobility needs might enough time to plan for and deliver a new happen locally in each city within the contextthink that any one scenario is more likely be met in ways other than transport generation of sustainable mobility solutions. of the global-level scenarios.than the other, nor is our intention to (e.g. through virtual services or urbanprescribe one scenario as ‘best case’ or planning solutions)? Horizon-scanning research City workshops‘worst case’. All scenarios should presentelements of a possible future, and present As part of this phase we undertook desk We conducted 2-day workshops in Istanbula realistic combination of positive and research as well as structured interviews with and Mumbai to validate the scenarios,negative developments. more than 40 experts involved in different identify relevant challenges and opportunities aspects of urban mobility from around the for the local context, as well as short,The Megacities on the Move scenarios world – including stakeholders in the two medium and long-term solutions that couldare intended to present plausible future cities we had chosen to test the scenarios, be implemented. In particular we askeddevelopments, describing the challenges Istanbul and Mumbai. Our aim was to identify people to critique the scenarios, and tell usand opportunities of personal mobility in current forces and uncertainties around what they thought were the most plausiblelarge cities in 2040. Each scenario covers urban mobility, as well as get interviewees’ outcomes and trends.a range of issues and addresses a number perspectives on key factors and trendsof critical questions, including: shaping the future of mobility. Partner workshops We also conducted workshops for the project partners in an effort to explore the implications of the scenarios for their organisations, and identify options for future strategy responses. Return to contents 2. what’s your destination? > four scenarios for urban mobility in 2040 page 18
  19. 19. key variables: Fossil fuels dominantenergy sources andglobal governanceAmongst the uncertainties, we identified two as the most critical ininfluencing future mobility solutions: energy supply and demand, planned-opolis sprawl-villeand governance systems. Our research indicated that these are themost uncertain trends and have the greatest potential impact on thefuture of urban mobility. We identified two very different outcomes foreach, and used this to construct the ‘axes’: the overall framework forthe scenarios that defines the key differences between the scenarios.Axis 1: what kind of energy mix will be dominant?Fossil fuels dominant: The world is still running on fossil fuels.Although there are significant constraints in supply, a mix of mitigatingfactors – including efficiency gains, clean-up mechanisms, andsupply augmentation through different sources such as shale gasor tar sands – help maintain fossil fuel dominance.Alternative energy dominant: Alternative energy sources have Top Bottombeen scaled up and are much more affordable. Conventional oil down upsupply has peaked. Simultaneously, a mix of cost and technologybreakthroughs in alternative energy generation spurs innovationthat changes the energy mix.Axis 2: what kind of global governance frameworkwill we have?Top down: Global governance frameworks are strong and wellcoordinated. A convergence of opinion on key issues such asclimate change has led to the develop-ment of stronger institutionsand binding frameworks, and a more collaborative world order. renew-abad communi-cityBottom up: Decentralised governance solutions are preferredto global-level action. Trade relations are more regionalised, andinnovation happens in local power hubs. The world is focused onself-sufficiency, resilience and localised solutions. Alternative energy dominant Return to contents 2. what’s your destination? > four scenarios for urban mobility in 2040 page 19
  20. 20. scenario 1planned-opolisIn a world of fossil fuels and expensive energy,the only solution is tightly planned and controlledurban transport. 2018 2023 2027 Most new coal and gas power stations have A high profile nuclear storage shelter leak Plans for new floating cities approved CCS, with funds supporting this technology due to a rushed project further delays in Bangladesh and the Netherlands. in developing countries. nuclear large scale generation. timeline2015 2020 2025 2035A global climate deal is reached. Globetech, a major multinational company, City Corp takes over the management Global Food Council gets newA framework of global cuts for 50% bans flying for business meetings and of Laos after a governance failure. powers to control farming.(to 1990 levels) by 2050 is agreed, sees share prices rise sharply in thewith interim targets. following years. Return to contents 2. what’s your destination? > planned-opolis page 20
  21. 21. factors shaping mobilityEnergy supply Resource use The economy Climate change responsesCentralised grids rely on gas-fired Strict planning and rationing ensure A strong, regulated economy Cities are replanned as extremepower stations and carbon capture resources are used as efficiently invests in technology and measures are taken to decarboniseand storage. as possible. infrastructure. the world.A high carbon price makes energy very There is strong reliance on technological The economy in 2040 is quite strong, and The world relies on geo-engineering. ‘Carbonexpensive, but a lack of viable alternatives solutions and centralised planning to global trade continues to grow, although it scrubbers’ that take CO 2 directly out ofmeans fossil fuels – in particular shale gas overcome resource shortages. Water is is tightly regulated and sky-high oil prices the air are a common sight on city streets.and methane hydrates – still dominate. commonly rationed. To maximise efficiency restrict the sort of goods that can be Many cities with high food risk have beenInvestment has been focused on reducing the ‘Global Food Council’ dictates what traded. Import tariffs and subsidies have deliberately downsized and populationsenergy demand and increasing efficiency. crops can be grown where in the world. been reduced. The US, China and Russia moved to new cities designed from scratch.Nuclear energy has not scaled as expected, Consumption of energy-intensive meat dominate – the latter due to its land, oil, Floating city technologies pioneered by theheld back by technical delays, escalating is restricted. Tight monitoring of raw coal and forest resources. Spending on Dutch have spread to other rich city areascosts and a shortage of skills. Very materials such as metals, wood or paper, technology and R&D, especially on energy such as Hong Kong. Cities are re-engineeredefficient carbon capture and storage (CCS) ensures that resources are reused efficiency measures, is very high. Growth for natural cooling – tree-planting, greentechnology is necessary to keep carbon and recycled. Biotechnology and has allowed significant investment in new roofs and natural ventilation are common.emissions down. nanotechnology have helped engineers infrastructure, including large urban projects. and scientists develop new materials Governance with exceptional physical properties. One-size-fits-all governance is effective but reduces freedoms. Global governance is well-coordinated and effective. There are agreements on climate change, displaced people and global agriculture. Global agreements are quickly implemented at a national level. Technology plays a significant role in supporting governance. Cities are often run by specialist, city-governing companies. These companies bid for very lucrative long-term contracts and may run dozens of major cities worldwide. This means that effective policies developed in one city can quickly spread around the world, but it also means that very different cities tend to be run in the same way, despite local differences. This leads to complaints about loss of national sovereignty and individual freedoms. Return to contents 2. what’s your destination? > planned-opolis page 21