Achim Steiner, incoming UNDP director, gave the STEPS Annual lecture at the University of Sussex on 15 May 2017. Find out more: https://steps-centre.org/event/steps-annual-lecture-achim-steiner/

1. DOOMED TO FAIL OR BOUND
TO SUCCEED?
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
AND THE GREEN ECONOMY AGENDA:
REVISITED
Achim Steiner
Director, Oxford Martin School
STEPS Centre Annual Lecture, Institute of Development Studies/ University of Sussex
15 May 2017

2. Climate change
Antibiotic resistance Emerging
viruses
Novel
biotechnologies
Oil prices
Migrant crises
Inequality
FamineTerrorism Cybersecurity Financial Stability
Political upheaval
Air pollution
Nuclear proliferation
Environmental
disasters
The Global ‘In-Tray’
There is clearly huge uncertainty…

3. The role of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis
Historically, far-right votes tend to increase in the years following systemic
banking stress, and when depressed economic conditions are allowed to
persist (Funke et al 2015, Bromhead et al 2012)

4. Globalisation, mass flows
of humans and capital, and persistent inequality
• Capital has flowed ‘uphill’ to wealthy countries
• Import shocks have disrupted regional economies
• Immigration has not easily resulted in integration

5. Source: www.viewsoftheworld.net

6. What does the Anthropocene look like?
Source: Living Planet Report 2016

7. Climate Change
• Current CO2 concentrations are higher than they have been over the last 800,000 years
• There is an established cause-effect chain from emissions to concentrations to temperatures
Global mean temperatures since 1850Global mean CO2 concentrations since 1850The use of the global carbon budget
Source: Ed Hawkins / www.pick-potsdam.de

8. Climate change is already contributing
New York Times
Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of
the recent Syrian drought, Kelley et al, PNAS 2016

9. Rapidly shifting scientific & technological landscapes
Source: Techonomy, 2016

10. The result:
Deepening political segmentation and polarisation
• Financial crises are policy failures, and repeated policy failures
devalue traditional sources of authority (Krugman, NYT)
• Paradigm shifts bring complexity, blurring and unpredictability
• ‘Reactionary’ political movements arising globally are borne
of a desire for control, simplicity, safety and order
• “People are talking to their governments using 21st Century
technology, governments listen on 20th Century technology
and respond with 19th Century policies” (Madeleine Albright)

11. Sustainability
Decarbonisation
The great challenge:
managing transitions and complexity
Prolonged fiscal
aftershocks
Dramatic technological
change
Mass movement of
people

12. OECD-FAO predicts that global agricultural production
will only grow 1.5% annually over the next 10 years
compared with 2.1% in the last decade.
Increasing crop production
increase the frequency
of cropping (e.g. using
irrigation)
Sub-Saharan Africa currently has the
world’s lowest cereal yields:1.25
tonnes/ha versus developed countries,
developing Asia and Latin America which
all attain around 4 tonnes/ha
Agriculture uses 37% of
global landmass
(excluding Antarctica)
Reducing waste
Agriculture accounts for
70% of all freshwater
drawn from rivers, lakes
and aquifers
increase land
use
increase yields
Around 30% of the food
produced globally is wasted –
around 1.3bn tonnes. Food
waste in high-income countries is
dominated by consumer waste.
Food waste in developing
countries is at the pre- and post-
harvest and processing stages
due to spoilage
Food and Agriculture

13. ‘Business as usual’: land use change
• More land was converted to
cropland in the 30 years after 1950
than in the 150 years between 1700
and 1850
• In 2000 cultivated systems cover 25%
of Earth’s terrestrial surface
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, UNEP
• An estimated 23% of all usable land
is degraded
• 20% of the world’s pasture and
rangelands have been damaged
• 580m ha of forests have been
degraded by logging and clearance,
nearly 40% of this since 1975

14. World Water Requirements
Source: 2030 Water Resources Group, 2013
Around 20% of the world’s aquifers are
being over-exploited
Global water withdrawals are projected to increase by
55% through 2050, due to growing demands from
manufacturing (400%), thermal electricity generation
(140%), and domestic use (130%)
An estimated 30% of global water withdrawals are lost
through leakage

15. Energy demand is expected to
increase by 32% by 2040, with
global electricity demand
growing by over 70%
Renewables are expected by
the IEA to overtake coal as the
largest source of electricity by
the early 2030s
World Energy Requirements
Source: IEA, 2013
Exajoulesperyear
MillionTonnesofOilEquivalent

17. Sustainable Development Goals
The SDGs are a powerful shared vision of development
They recognise the complexity of the challenge
They are universal, and they are integrated

18. The 2030 Agenda
• The SDGs are integrative: they promote economic
development, social protection and environmental health
• A healthy, well-functioning environment is crucial for the
health of human beings
• The SDGs are universal: they represent universal principles,
standards and values applicable to all countries and all
peoples
• National and global development is connected
• The 2030 Agenda is a fundamental shift from a growth-
based economic model to a sustainable and equitable one

19. Green Economy Definitions
• Multiple green economy and green growth definitions have been
developed, including the following:
– UNEP: “A green economy is one that results in improved human well-
being and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental
risks and ecological scarcity.” (UNEP, Green Economy Reports: A
Preview, 2010, p. 4-5)
– OECD: ”Green growth means fostering economic growth and
development while ensuring that natural assets continue to provide
the resources and environmental services on which our well-being
relies.” (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
(OECD), Towards Green Growth, 2011, p. 9)
– Green Economy Coalition: “An economy that provides better quality of
life for all within the ecological limits of the planet” (Green Economy
Coalition: http://www.greeneconomycoalition.org/)

20. Source:
UNEP 2015

21. Envisioning a circular and green economy
Source: UNEP 2015

22. Resource decoupling: using less land, water, energy & materials to
maintain economic growth
Impact decoupling: using resources wisely over their lifetime to
reduce environmental impact

23. The Headwinds
…particularly for SDG10: Inequality
• OECD employment: challenged by automation, (perceived
effects of) immigration, and lack of economic resilience
• African employment: the transition from an agrarian economy
• Politically shifting sands: USA retreating, China engaging
• Aid fatigue – and the implication for climate victims
• And increasing questions over the role of traditional
international policy pathways and their ability to effect
change

24. The role of public policy
COP-21 in Paris is a legally binding treaty
Each country’s nationally determined
contribution (NDC) of greenhouse gas
emission reductions will be enacted through
domestic mitigation measures
All countries must produce a Low Emission
Development Strategy by 2020
Emissions
The Green Economy

25. • Achieving the SDGs opens up an economic prize of at least US$12 trillion by 2030 for the
private sector, and potentially 2-3x more
• Over 50% of the prize is located in developing countries
Source: Business Commission Report, 2017
Job Creation and Business Opportunities from the
Sustainable Development Goals

26. Product
reformulation
Cattle
intensification
Reducing
packaging
waste
Technology in
smallholder
farms
Reducing food
waste in value
chain
Technology in
large scale
farms
Low-income
food markets
Restoring
degraded land
Forest
ecosystem
services
Micro-
irrigation
Reducing
consumer food
waste
Dietary switch
Sustainable
aquaculture
Urban
agriculture
US$405bn
US$365bn
US$265bn
US$220bn
US$205bn
US$180bn
US$140bn
US$125bn
US$105bn
US$85bn
US$85bn
US$65bn
US$55bn
US$40bn
Business opportunities from the SDGs
The dollar amount is the difference between an estimate of a business-as-usual scenario and the SDG

27. Road safety
equipment
Office sharing
Water & sanitation
infrastructure
Municipal
water leakage
Affordable
housing
Autonomous
vehicles
Public
transport in
urban areas
Smart metering
Energy
efficiency -
buildings
Cultural
tourism
Car sharing
Internal combustion
engine fuel efficiency
Building
resilient cities
Electric and
hybrid vehicles
US$1080bn
US$770bn
US$205bn
US$205bn
US$170bn
US$160bn
US$155bn
US$155bn
US$110bn
US$90bn
US$90bn
US$90bn
US$70bn
US$320bn
Business opportunities from the SDGs
The dollar amount is the difference between an estimate of a business-as-usual scenario and the SDG
Timber
buildings
US$40bn
Durable and
modular
buildings
US$40bn

28. Energy efficiency –
non energy intensive
industries
Mine
rehabilitation
Shared
infrastructure
Energy access
Circular
economy -
automotive
End-use steel
efficiency
Circular
economy -
electronics
Local content
in extractives
Expansion of
renewables
Green
chemicals
Resource
recovery
Energy efficiency –
energy-intensive
industriesCarbon capture
and storage
Circular economy
– appliances and
machinery
US$810bn
US$605bn
US$365bn
US$210bn
US$315bn
US$195bn
US$175bn
US$150bn
US$150bn
US$130bn
US$120bn
US$120bn
US$65bn
US$525bn
Business opportunities from the SDGs
The dollar amount is the difference between an estimate of a business-as-usual scenario and the SDG
Energy
storage
US$260bn
Additive
manufacturing
US$125bn
Grid
interconnection
US$35bn

29. China’s emergence as a ‘global leader’
• China and the low carbon economy
– 2016 investment in renewable energy: $88bn
– 1 new wind turbine being installed every hour
– Beijing set to implement the world’s largest emissions trading system in 2017
– China’s emerging green bonds market could deliver $230bn over next 5 years
– 2016 China’s foreign investment spend on renewable projects: $32bn in 2016
(Source: N Stern, Financial Times 2017)
Davos 2017: Xi Jinping’s speech defends
global trade and the Paris climate
agreement and calls for stronger
international co-operation to meet today’s
global problems

30. Ecological Civilisation
• A national strategy for innovative, concerted, green, open and inclusive
development
• 18th National Congress, 2012: China must incorporate the idea of ecological
civilization into all aspects of economic, political, cultural and social progress
• An ethical morality and ideology which realizes harmonious co-existence with
nature and sustainable development reflecting the progress of civilization

31. Cause for optimism: current progress on the SDGs
• Maintaining the present pathways, by 2030…
– Extreme poverty will be eliminated across much of Asia
– Global maternal mortality will be reduced to 150 deaths
per 100,000 births
– Sub-Saharan Africa will see the largest increase in the
proportion of young people completing secondary
education
– More than 1.7bn people globally will gain access to
electricity
– Inequality will fall in low-income countries
– There will be a halt to declining forest cover with an
increase beginning from 2020
Source: www.developmentprogress.org

32. We live in a moment of great opportunity

33. www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk