STEPS methods #1: Appreciating pathways
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Andy Stirling - nexus methods
- 1. ‘Nexus Methods’ opening up democracy as rigour Andy Stirling SPRU & STEPS Centre University of Sussex presentation to conference session on Nexus Methods ESRC Methods Festival University of Bath 5th July 2016 www.steps-centre.org/ www.sussex.ac.uk/spru/ www.multicriteriamapping.com www.sussex.ac.uk/spru/people/peoplelists/person/7513
- 2. How Shall We Play This? 1000 1130 1100 1130 1200 1230 STEPS Methods talk then discussion Andy Stirling Open Space volunteers convene groups Session1breakSession2 Nexus Methodology talk then discussion Andy Stirling Open Space volunteers convene groups STEPS Methods Andy Stirling OPTION 3OPTION 1 OPTION 2
- 3. What is ‘the Nexus’? food water energy
- 4. What is ‘the Nexus’? food water energy Substantive imperatives for ‘joined up policy…? … or instrumental pressure for policy justification?
- 5. What is ‘the Nexus’? climate development food environment water security globalisation energy population migration urbanisation
- 6. Phenonema Under Scrutiny •social and material world •“systems” and “contexts” •“scales” and “levels” •“actors” and “networks” •“values” and “interests” •“frames” and “narratives” •“causes” and “effects” •processes and relations •“knowledges”,“incertitudes” •“positives” and “negatives” •“structures” and “agents” •“actions” and “reactions” •“imaginations” and “visions” •“metrics” and ”indices” Complexity is not made by pathways methods… …but addressed by them – brings a need for “reflexivity”
- 7. cost-benefit analysis risk assessment decision analysis multiattribute utility theory technology assessment life cycle analysis optimisation modelling Bayesian networks extended accounting data mining delphi methods Quantitative Culture Qualitative Culture A Juicy Opportunity for Appraisal Disciplines! No shortage of candidate ‘Nexus methods’ scenario workshops focus groups participatory appraisal stakeholder deliberation ethnomethodology collaborative design capabilities assessment strategic appraisal action research cooperative research study groups
- 8. Energy regulation: most mature, sophisticated comparative analysis… A Key Common Problem: Concealed Ambiguity
- 9. 0.001 0.1 10 1000 externality’: cUS/kWh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005)low RISK high coal oil gas nuclear hydro wind solar biomass Energy regulation: most mature, sophisticated comparative analysis… A Key Common Problem: Concealed Ambiguity
- 10. 0.001 0.1 10 1000 coal oil gas nuclear hydro 21 wind solar biomass n = ‘externality’: cUS/kWh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005) minimum maximum25% 75% low RISK high Energy regulation: most mature, sophisticated comparative analysis… A Key Common Problem: Concealed Ambiguity
- 11. coal oil gas nuclear hydro 36 20 wind 18 solar 11 biomass 22 31 21 16 n = …‘sound science’, ‘evidence based’ Nexus analyses justify many policies Energy regulation: most mature, sophisticated comparative analysis… A Key Common Problem: Concealed Ambiguity
- 12. All Quantification is Qualitatively Framed Equally true of qualitative research, but this is better appreciated
- 13. under-determined realities Framing ‘the Nexus’
- 14. ‘system’ ‘focus’ under-determined realitiespicture of problem/solution Framing ‘the Nexus’
- 15. ‘scope’ ‘system’ ‘focus’ under-determined realitiespicture of problem/solution Framing ‘the Nexus’
- 16. ‘scope’ ‘system’ ‘focus’ ‘cause’ ‘effect’ under-determined realitiespicture of problem/solution Framing ‘the Nexus’
- 17. environment‘scope’ ‘system’ ‘focus’ subjective framing ‘effect’ under-determined realities ‘cause’view 1 picture of problem/solution Framing ‘the Nexus’
- 18. environment ‘system’ under-determined realitiesdiverse picturesplural frames ‘effect’ ‘cause’ ‘scope’ ‘focus’ view 2 view 1 contending knowledges and values Framing ‘the Nexus’
- 19. plural frames ‘system’ ‘cause’ ‘effect’ under-determined realitiesdiverse pictures ‘scope’ ‘focus’ view 3 view 1 view 2 contending knowledges and values Framing ‘the Nexus’
- 20. view 4 plural frames ‘system’ ‘cause’ ‘effect’ under-determined realitiesdiverse pictures ‘scope’ ‘focus’ contending knowledges and values view 1 view 2 view 3 Framing ‘the Nexus’
- 21. incum bents power in knowledge ‘system’ ‘cause’ ‘effect’ under-determined realities academic government local people diverse pictures ‘scope’ ‘focus’ contending knowledges and values Framing ‘the Nexus’ “THE NEXUS”
- 22. fundamental nature biophysical environments societies & economies cultures & institutions Science (of all kinds!) is a key means by which to remind “the real world” of politics about the “real real world” of everything else The Conditionality of Assessment
- 23. The Conditionality of Assessment knowledge practices fundamental nature biophysical environments societies & economies cultures & instituions But knowledge is produced by people, with cultures, pursuing practices in institutions So it is jointly shaped to reflect both social and natural orders
- 24. KNOWLEDGE PRACTICES knowledge practices fundamental nature biophysical environments societies & economies INSTITUTIONS The Conditionality of Assessment This leads to a paradox What is inside… … is also outside
- 25. knowledge practices biophysical environments societies & economies INSTITUTIONS The Knowing-Known Dualism in Assessment This leads to a paradox What is inside… … is also outside … as in a Klein Bottle, knowledge is on the inside and the outside of human action KNOWLEDGE PRACTICES
- 26. ‘Reflexivity’ A capacity for self reflection… … understanding how answers depend on questions
- 27. reflexivity over subjectivity, contingency, contextuality reflectionoverrobustness,quality,error‘Reflexivity’ is not about ‘Anything Goes’ normatively and/or epistemically wrong normatively and/or epistemically right CONCEPTUAL SPACE OF ALL CANDIDATE POSSIBILITIES FOR WHAT IS NORMATIVELY OR EPISTEMICALLY ‘RIGHT’ KEY
- 28. normatively and/or epistemically wrong normatively and/or epistemically right naïve realism “one thing is precisely right” mainstream fallibilism “one thing is approximately right” caricature relativism “all things are equally right” conditional plurality “contrasting things are equally right… xxxx…but much else is just plain wrong!” reflexivity over subjectivity, contingency, contextuality reflectionoverrobustness,quality,error‘Reflexivity’ is not about ‘Anything Goes’ reflexivity: ‘right’ answers & solutions vary by framings of questions & problems molecular biologists ecologists economists sociologists
- 29. Review of >100 different kinds of ‘Nexus-related method’ Background Approach - epistemic cultures: quantitative / hybrid / qualitative - styles of reasoning: deductive / inductive / abductive - relations & practices: analytic / interactive - procedural functions: frameworks / techniques / tools
- 30. RESEARCH METHODSprimarily qualitative mostly quantitative EPISTEMIC CULTURE explicitly mixed MODEOFENQUIRY largelydeductivechieflyabductivemainlyinductive RESEARCH METHODS QUALITATIVE APPREHENSION HYBRID APPRAISAL EMPIRICAL QUANTIFICATION GROUNDED METHODS INTERPRETIVE ANALYSIS QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT APPRECIATIVE APPROACHES MIXED THEORY EVALUATIVE TECHNIQUES
- 31. integrated assessment largely qualitative mostly quantitative EPISTEMIC CULTURE explicitly mixed STYLEOFENQUIRY deductivestyleabductivestyleinductivestyle QUALITATIVE APPREHENSION HYBRID APPRAISAL EMPIRICAL QUANTIFICATION GROUNDED METHODS INTERPRETIVE ANALYSIS QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT social assessment longitudinal methods cladistic taxonomy natural experiment value chain analysis monitoring multi-sited ethnography scientometrics surveillance data mining econometrics case studies network analysis narrative analysis historiography comprehensive archive research historical method discourse analysis process tracing situational analysis studying up systems theory` soft systems theory` information theory meta analysis life cycle approaches optimisation modelling Bayesian models probabilistic risk analysis uncertainty analysis APPRECIATIVE APPROACHES MIXED THEORY EVALUATIVE TECHNIQUES environmental assessment evaluation methods statistical methods spatial analysis critical pedagogy technology assessment panel studies social indicators technometricscontent analysis social experiment randomised control trials remote sensing agent-based modelling needs analysis road- mapping ethno- methodology action research counter- factuals co-word analysis RESEARCH METHODS innovation histories evidentiary presumptions systems histories` precautionary appraisal critical accounting influence mapping post-normal science resilience analysis alternatives assessment critical triangulation cross-frame analysis imaginaries analysis arts catalyst capabilities assessment sensitivity analysis key: analytic / interactive method costbenefit analysis ecological footprint
- 32. integrated assessment largely qualitative mostly quantitative EPISTEMIC CULTURE explicitly mixed STYLEOFENQUIRY deductivestyleabductivestyleinductivestyle QUALITATIVE APPREHENSION HYBRID APPRAISAL EMPIRICAL QUANTIFICATION GROUNDED METHODS INTERPRETIVE ANALYSIS QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT social assessment extended foresight longitudinal methods cladistic taxonomy natural experiment value chain analysis monitoring multi-sited ethnography scientometrics surveillance data mining econometrics delphi analysis photo- elicitation case studies network analysis narrative analysis historiography comprehensive archive research historical method discourse analysis process tracing situational analysis studying up systems theory` soft systems theory` information theory meta analysis life cycle approaches optimisation modelling Bayesian models probabilistic risk analysis uncertainty analysis APPRECIATIVE APPROACHES MIXED THEORY EVALUATIVE TECHNIQUES environmental assessment evaluation methods statistical methods spatial analysis opinion surveys attitudinal scaling structured deliberation dissensus groups citizen science crowd sourcing scenario workshops futures visioning performative approaches focus groups semi-structured interviews critical pedagogy decision analysis contingent valuation multicriteria mapping Q method gaming techniques open space technology assessment constructive technology assessment interactive diagrams panel studies social indicators technometricscontent analysis social experiment experimental economics randomised control trials remote sensing interactive visualisation interactive modelling agent-based modelling paricipatory backcasting needs analysis road- mapping ethno- methodology situational activism action research biography counter- factuals co-word analysis participatory theatre RESEARCH METHODS social multicriteria analysis stakeholder negotiation innovation histories concurrent evidence evidentiary presumptions systems histories` precautionary appraisal critical accounting do-it-yourself juries influence mapping post-normal science resilience analysis alternatives assessment critical triangulation cross-frame analysis power tools imaginaries analysis deliberative polling diversity mapping co-operative research collaborative design arts catalyst community art participatory rural appraisal study groups capabilities assessment planning cells sensitivity analysis key: analytic / interactive method costbenefit analysis ecological footprint
- 33. INPUTS (aspects taken into account within practice of research or appraisal) problems, options, pros / cons, issues, uncertainties, perspectives INPUTS (things that are taken into account) Pro blems, options, pros / cons, issues, uncertainties, perspectives narrow broad closing down opening up expert / analytic participatory / deliberative OUTPUTS (aspects that are conveyed outwards into wider discourse) ’Plural conditional’ conclusions… … if X then A … if Y then B … Rigour in Nexus-Focused Methodologies Combining reflexivity about framing and reflection about error in informing policy and politics
- 34. narrow broad closing down opening up expert / analytic participatory / deliberative decision analysis INPUTS OUTPUTS sustainability safety impacts Rigour in Nexus-Focused Methodologies Combining reflexivity about framing and reflection about error in informing policy and politics
- 35. narrow broad closing down opening up expert / analytic participatory / deliberative citizen’s juries INPUTS OUTPUTS Rigour in Nexus-Focused Methodologies Combining reflexivity about framing and reflection about error in informing policy and politics
- 36. narrow broad closing down opening up expert / analytic participatory / deliberative citizen’s juries participatory appraisal q-method scientometric mapping open space multicriteria mapping extended foresight citizen’s juries decision analysis stakeholder negotiation participatory sensitivity analysis cost-benefit analysis risk assessment interactive modelling structured interviews participant observation multi-site ethnographic- methods citizen’s juries consensus conference open hearings concurrent evidence critical narratives intervention futures PIPA plural photovoice system histories innovation histories INPUTS OUTPUTS Rigour in Nexus-Focused Methodologies Combining reflexivity about framing and reflection about error in informing policy and politics
- 37. spot-the- narrative narrow broad closing down opening up expert / analytic participatory / deliberative citizen’s juries decision analysis participatory rural appraisal stakeholder negotiation q-method sensitivity analysis deliberative mapping scientometric mapping open space cost-benefit analysis risk assessmen t interactive modelling structured interviews narrative-based participant observation multi-site ethnographic- methods citizen’s juries consensus conference open hearings dissenting opinions multi-criteria mapping extended foresight stakeholder negotiation cost-benefit analysis risk assessment INPUTS OUTPUTS Power Closes Down Nexus Research and Appraisal Pressure to command authority, foster trust, secure acceptance, manage blame
- 38. expert / analytic participatory / deliberative Challenges for Research and Appraisal Reflexively means actively balancing bias in conventional appraisal narrow broad closing down opening up participatory appraisal q-method open space multicriteria mapping participatory sensitivity analysis intervention futures PIPA plural photovoice system histories innovation histories INPUTS OUTPUTS
- 39. narrow broad closing down opening up expert / analytic participatory / deliberative Power Closes Down Research and Appraisal A responsibility for neutrality means independent innovation research and policy appraisal should deliberately counter pressures for closure MONODISCIPLINARITY eg: Q-method comes out of social psychology INPUTS OUTPUTS
- 40. narrow broad closing down opening up expert / analytic participatory / deliberative Power Closes Down Research and Appraisal A responsibility for neutrality means independent innovation research and policy appraisal should deliberately counter pressures for closure MONODISCIPLINARITY - enquiry is structured by community practices - institutionalised as “normal science” within paradigm - authority through self-confident coherence eg: in Q-method analysis is subject to particular assumptions and conventions INPUTS OUTPUTS
- 41. MONODISCIPLINARITY - enquiry is structured by community practices - institutionalised as “normal science” within paradigm - authority through self-confident coherence Participatory methods can also be monodisciplinary eg: participatory panel follows particular rules narrow broad closing down opening up expert / analytic participatory / deliberative Power Closes Down Research and Appraisal A responsibility for neutrality means independent innovation research and policy appraisal should deliberately counter pressures for closure INPUTS OUTPUTS
- 42. narrow broad closing down opening up expert / analytic participatory / deliberative Power Closes Down Research and Appraisal A responsibility for neutrality means independent innovation research and policy appraisal should deliberately counter pressures for closure CROSS-DISCIPLINARITY - task- and context-specific - allows cross-critique and triangulation - authority through juxtaposition eg: participatory panel provides complement to discourse analysis INPUTS OUTPUTS
- 43. MULTIDISCIPLINARITY - enquiry structured hierarchically - impressive scope, reassuring applicability - authority through integration eg: integrated assessment global panels narrow broad closing down opening up expert / analytic participatory / deliberative Power Closes Down Research and Appraisal A responsibility for neutrality means independent innovation research and policy appraisal should deliberately counter pressures for closure INPUTS OUTPUTS
- 44. INTERDISCIPLINARITY - enquiry structured by collaboration - attention targeted on focal problem - authority thro’ fidelity in addressing complexity eg: collaborative networks multiple partnerships narrow broad closing down opening up expert / analytic participatory / deliberative Power Closes Down Research and Appraisal A responsibility for neutrality means independent innovation research and policy appraisal should deliberately counter pressures for closure INPUTS OUTPUTS
- 45. TRANSDISCIPLINARITY - enquiry reflects wider extant framings - flexible to divergent contexts - authority thro’ salience and legitimacy eg: co-designed with stakeholders narrow broad closing down opening up expert / analytic participatory / deliberative Power Closes Down Research and Appraisal A responsibility for neutrality means independent innovation research and policy appraisal should deliberately counter pressures for closure INPUTS OUTPUTS
- 46. Mapping Perspectives for Deliberation Multicriteria Mapping ‘opens up’ politics and power in expertise Analysis of 12 UK government GM advisors (2001)
- 47. Mapping Perspectives for Deliberation Multicriteria Mapping ‘opens up’ politics and power in expertise Analysis of 12 UK government GM advisors (2001) organics low input intensive GM 1 GM 2 GM 3 organics low input intensive GM 1 GM 2 GM 3
- 48. UK Government ecology chair organics low input intensive GM 1 GM 2 GM 3 organics low input intensive GM 1 GM 2 GM 3 UK Government safety chair GM industry research executive Green NGO scientist Acknowledging assumptions, values, uncertainties ‘plural & conditional’ approach is rigorous & democratic … if A, then x; … if B, then y Multicriteria Mapping ‘opens up’ politics and power in expertise Mapping Perspectives for Deliberation
