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Weekly Market Report
Weekly Market Report
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Weekly Market Report

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  • 1. Page 1 of 5 Market Review and Outlook QE Index and Volume The Qatar Exchange (QE) Index lost 414.12 points, or 4.31%, during the week, to close at 9,204.92 points. Market capitalization decreased by 4.01% to reach QR505.4 billion (bn) as compared to QR526.5bn at the end of the previous week. Of the 42 listed companies, 2 companies ended the week higher, 39 fell and 1 remain unchanged. Dlala Brokerage & Investments Holding Company (DBIS) was the best performing stock with a gain of 5.66%; the stock is down 34.53% year-to-date (YTD). Gulf International Services (GISS) was the top decliner, down 7.92%; the stock is still up 47.33% YTD. Investors continue to keep a close eye on cues from the US Fed. According to the latest US Federal Reserve report, the US economy has expanded at a modest-to-moderate pace between early July and late-August. The Beige Book report pointed to a firming up of residential real estate activity, which confirms this year's rebound in the US housing market. This improving scenario could lead to a gradual tapering, which could impact flows to emerging markets, in our view. In fact, the IMF believes advanced economies, led by the US, will increasingly drive global growth, while emerging countries are at risk of a slowdown due to tighter US monetary policy. However, with advanced economies picking up speed, the IMF said it still expected global growth to accelerate in 2014 over this year, helped by highly accommodative monetary conditions. Geo-political issues continue to dampen investor sentiment in the GCC markets. Dubai‟s benchmark index (DFMGI) was the worst performer, declining by 7.4% week-on-week (WoW). The index is still the best performing index in the region, up 44.0% YTD. The second worst performing market was Kuwait, declining by 5.4% WoW. Other regional indices also declined in the range of 0.6% to 5.3% during the week. Going forward, we maintain our view that in the absence of any near-term fundamental catalysts, we expect the regional markets to increasingly focus on the regional geo-political situation. Trading value during the week decreased by 37.48% to reach QR1.5bn vs. QR2.4bn in the prior week. The Banks & Financial Services sector led the trading value during the week, accounting for 39.55% of the total equity trading value. Trading volume also decreased by 33.92% to reach 37.2 million (mn) shares vs. 56.2mn shares in the prior week. The number of transactions fell by 26.33% to reach 20,208 transactions versus 27,429 transactions in the prior week. The Banks & Financial Services sector led the trading volume, accounting for 36.52% of the total. Foreign institutions remained bearish for the week with net selling of QR59.4mn versus net selling QR173.8mn in the prior week. Non-Qatari individuals were net buyers of QR2.5mn versus net selling QR42.8mn in the prior week. Finally, local institutions were net buyers of QR96.6mn versus QR102.3mn the week before. Market Indicators Week ended Sep 05, 2013 Week ended Aug 29, 2013 Chg. % Value Traded (QR mn) 1,470.2 2,351.6 (37.5) Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) 505,406.3 526,501.3 (4.0) Volume (mn) 37.2 56.2 (33.9) Number of Transactions 20,208 27,429 (26.3) Companies Traded 42 42 0.0 Market Breadth 2:39 3:39 – Market Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Total Return 13,151.72 (4.3) (4.3) 16.3 All Share Index 2,326.49 (4.0) (4.0) 15.5 Banks/Financial Svcs. 2,258.41 (3.8) (3.8) 15.9 Industrials 2,954.80 (4.1) (4.1) 12.5 Transportation 1,693.72 (3.9) (3.9) 26.4 Real Estate 1,653.13 (3.7) (3.7) 2.6 Insurance 2,201.08 (1.5) (1.5) 12.1 Telecoms 1,350.18 (6.0) (6.0) 26.8 Consumer 5,595.45 (4.7) (4.7) 19.8 Al Rayan Islamic Index 2,641.13 (3.8) (3.8) 6.1 Market Indices Weekly Index Performance Regional Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Weekly Exchange Traded Value ($ mn) Exchange Mkt. Cap. ($ mn) TTM P/E** P/B** Dividend Yield Qatar (QE)* 9,204.92 (4.3) (4.3) 10.1 403.78 138,835.1 11.6 1.6 5.0 Dubai 2,337.17 (7.4) (7.4) 44.0 1,264.54 59,585.80 13.6 0.9 3.8 Abu Dhabi 3,537.61 (5.3) (5.3) 34.5 419.92 103,513.9 10.0 1.3 5.1 Saudi Arabia 7,634.30 (1.7) (1.7) 12.2 7,993.77 406,529.5# 15.9 2.0 3.8 Kuwait 7,217.96 (5.4) (5.4) 21.6 451.31 106,691.4 17.2 1.1 4.0 Oman 6,413.34 (4.2) (4.2) 11.3 139.82 22,585.3 10.6 1.6 4.0 Bahrain 1,180.77 (0.6) (0.6) 10.8 28.93 21,660.2 8.3 0.8 4.0 Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any) ( # Data as of Sep. 04, 2013) 9,667.58 9,618.26 9,536.12 9,356.32 9,204.92 0 4,500,000 9,000,000 8,900 9,350 9,800 1-Sep 2-Sep 3-Sep 4-Sep 5-Sep Volume QE Index (0.6%) (1.7%) (4.2%) (4.3%) (5.3%) (5.4%) (7.4%)(8.0%) (6.0%) (4.0%) (2.0%) 0.0% Bahrain SaudiArabia Oman Qatar AbuDhabi Kuwait Dubai
  • 2. Page 2 of 5 News Economic News  Qatar leads growth in Gulf projects with 1.3% value gain – According to a report released by MEED, Qatar has led Gulf Projects‟ Index growth with the value of schemes planned or underway climbing 1.3% in the week up to August 27, 2013. The report added that Qatar‟s performance was supported by the launch of five new projects worth $600mn and revision of a construction project worth $2.4bn. The Gulf Projects‟ Index recorded a growth of 0.1% (to $3.1tn) in the period under review, following a rise in four of the six GCC region projects markets. (Gulf-Times.com)  EC Harris: Qatar has 4th highest asset wealth per head – According to the Global Built Asset Wealth Index published by EC Harris, Qatar has the fourth highest built asset wealth per person in the world with an estimated per capita wealth of $143,000. During 2011-2012, the rate of growth in built asset wealth per capita stood at 8.4%, which is the highest growth in the world. The index illustrates how Qatar compares with 30 other countries that collectively represent 82% of the global GDP. The Index also revealed the total built asset wealth among these countries stood at $193tn - equivalent to almost three times the GDP of these countries ($68tn). (Peninsula Qatar) Market & Corporate News  Qatar banking sector can meet $100bn projects boom – According to a report by MEED, Qatar's banking sector, the fastest growing in the world in the past decade, is ready to rise to the challenge of financing a $100bn boom in the country‟s projects industry until 2022. (Qatar Tribune)  QNB Group grabs top spot among GCC's 10 fastest growing global banks – According to a report released by the QNB Group, the group leads the top 10 GCC banks that are among the fastest growing across the globe. QNB Group's assets totaled $118bn in June 2013, up 30% over June 2012. QNB Group is the only Qatari bank in the list of top 10 GCC banks. QNB Group‟s asset growth was driven by the strategic acquisition of NSGB in Egypt and higher international stakes. At the end of 2012, 79% of QNB Group‟s assets were in Qatar. The report said the top ten GCC banks are likely to remain well insulated from the current turmoil in emerging markets as their growth is underpinned by strong economic fundamentals in the region. (Gulf-Times.com)  Barwa Bank management team update – Barwa Bank has announced a series of changes to its leadership team. The changes include the promotion of Khalid Al Ahbabi as the General Manager, Wholesale & Business Banking and Hussain Al Abdulla as the General Manager, Personal Banking & Wealth Management; a new role for Keith Bradley as Group Chief Operating Officer & General Manager International; as well as the appointment of Nasser Mohamad Al Hajiri as Chief Administrative Officer. (Peninsula Qatar)  QP to develop Mesaieed infrastructure – Qatar Petroleum (QP) is working on the development of Mesaieed Industrial City through a comprehensive plan over a 25-year period. The project includes a number of road works and expansion of residential areas. The development plan covers the renovation of the Al-Ajfa heritage village and setting up a sports club, besides two civil defense stations and a public service complex. Further, bridges will be built to protect oil & gas pipelines passing under the road. Recently, 40 kilometers of streets in the residential area were overhauled at a cost of QR800mn. (Gulf-Times.com)  GWCS sign agreement with QAFAC for chemical warehousing and record management services – Gulf Warehousing Company (GWCS) has signed an agreement with Qatar Fuel Additives Company (QAFAC), whereby GWCS is contracted to handle QAFAC's offsite storage of chemicals and general cargo. The agreement also includes scope for document storage and records management services. The term of the agreement is three years and type of agreement is a call- off agreement. The estimated value of the agreement is QR6mn during the full three-year period. (QE)  VFQS adds three more countries to Passport Service – Vodafone Qatar (VFQS) has added three new countries - France, the US and Switzerland to its Vodafone Passport Service, a roaming plan that can be added for free to the company‟s existing Postpaid Gold Plan. From now, VFQS postpaid customers can enjoy a standard roaming rate of QR0.75 per minute/SMS/MB while roaming in these countries. This is a massive reduction to the regular rates that a customer would pay while roaming. (Bloomberg)  ORDS to become global leader in fiber services – Ooredoo (ORDS) is positioning itself as the leader in providing fiber services in the developing world as the company sees new opportunities in emerging markets. ORDS said it is pursuing a first-mover advantage in countries that are seeking the economic benefits delivered by improved broadband infrastructure, which include job creation, increased household income and permanent increases in GDP. (Gulf-Times.com)  Expansion of Al Ruwais port to be completed by end-2013 – The expansion and development works of the QR1bn Al Ruwais Port project is set to be completed by the end-2013. (Peninsula Qatar)  Kahramaa park to open in mid-2014 – Qatar General Electricity & Water Corporation‟s (Kahramaa) Awareness Park is set to open in mid-2014. The park in Al Thumama was announced as part of a national campaign for rationalization of water and electricity consumption. It will feature a number of facilities, including an auditorium where documentary films on energy rationalization will be screened. (Gulf-Times.com)  Muntajat to lead its global marketing from Hague office – Qatar Chemical & Petrochemical Marketing and Distribution Company (Muntajat) has chosen The Hague in the Netherlands as the location for Muntajat Besloten Vennoot (Muntajat BV), its international marketing company. The Netherlands Foreign Investment Agency (NFIA) and the West Holland Foreign Investment Agency (WFIA) advised & assisted Muntajat in its location decision. Muntajat has the mandate to export Qatar‟s 10mn tons of chemicals and petrochemicals to worldwide markets. (Gulf-Times.com)  Ezdan’s QR1.5bn Shamal Compound open for home- seekers – Ezdan Holding Group has launched its “Shamal Compound” on Al Shamal Road in Doha, which includes a large number of residential units ranging from villas and apartments to a four-star hotel. Ezdan Holding Group CEO Ali Mohammed Al Obaidli said the QR1.5bn Shamal Compound project is spread over an area of 115,000 square meters, which is now open for those interested in renting the housing units. The complex includes 183 luxury villas, 170 apartments and a four- star hotel with 220 rooms. (Qatar Tribune)
  • 3. Page 3 of 5 Qatar Exchange Top Gainers Top Decliners Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million) Most Active Shares by Volume (Million) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) 5.7% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% Dlala Holding Qatar Industrial Manufacturing Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution -7.9% -7.1% -7.1% -6.6% -6.5% -9.0% -6.0% -3.0% 0.0% Gulf International Services Medicare Group Al Meera Consumer Goods Ooredoo United Development 228.4 173.6 85.5 83.3 79.5 0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 Industries Qatar QNB Group United Development Masraf Al Rayan Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) 4.2 4.1 3.5 2.9 2.4 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) United Development Al Khaliji Bank Masraf Al Rayan Vodafone Qatar 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Buy Sell 41.58% 44.28% 21.00% 14.43% 16.87% 16.70% 20.55% 24.59% Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Non-Qatari Individuals Non-Qatari Institutions 920 550 863 607 57 (57) (200) - 200 400 600 800 1,000 Qatari Non-Qatari Net Investment Total Sold Total Bought
  • 4. Page 4 of 5 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QE INDEX Source: Bloomberg The QE Index witnessed another week of sustained selling pressure and showed no signs of recovery, declining around 415 points for the second consecutive week. The index lost around 906 points in the last two weeks, indicating significant weakness. Moreover, the index penetrated important support levels of the 55-day moving average (current at 9,579.27) and psychological levels of (9,500.0, 9,400.0, 9,300.0), signifying this downmove is likely to continue for a long time. This is a bad sign for the bulls as bears have taken full charge of the current trend. We believe, the index may continue to witness additional selling pressure over the coming week and test the support level at 9,100.0, followed by 9,000.0. If the index slides below the important psychological support of 9,000.0 (first time since May, 2013), it will create a prolonged gloomy scenario in the market. On the flip side, the index needs to move above the resistance of 9,290.0 (January 2011 high) on a closing basis, in order to change this bearish trend, which seems difficult looking at the current scenario. If the index breaks through this level, it could test higher levels at around 9,400.0 and 9,500.0. Meanwhile, both momentum indicators are in a downtrend mode with no signs of immediate trend reversal, thus supporting our bearish stance. DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend. Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The „body‟ of the chart is portion between the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the „shadow‟. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis. Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal. Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal.
  • 5. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui Head of Research Head of Trading Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa QNB Financial Services SPC Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 PO Box 24025, Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 5 of 5 Source: Bloomberg Company Name Price (Sep 05) % Change 5- Day % Change Monthly Market Cap. QR Million TTM P/E P/B Div. Yield Qatar National Bank 160.50 (4.18) (4.18) 112,307 12.5 2.4 3.7 Qatar Islamic Bank 66.70 (4.44) (4.44) 15,761 14.0 1.4 5.6 Commercial Bank of Qatar 66.30 (3.07) (3.07) 16,406 8.1 1.2 9.0 Doha Bank 50.60 (5.77) (5.77) 13,074 8.7 1.5 8.2 Al Ahli Bank 52.00 (5.45) (5.45) 6,608 12.8 2.0 5.7 Qatar International Islamic Bank 54.60 (1.62) (1.62) 8,265 11.7 1.7 6.4 Masraf Al Rayan 28.05 (2.94) (2.94) 21,038 13.1 2.2 3.6 Al Khaliji Bank 17.90 (3.19) (3.19) 6,444 11.9 1.2 5.6 National Leasing 32.70 (4.39) (4.39) 1,618 9.5 1.2 6.1 Dlala Holding 20.35 5.66 5.66 452 N/M 2.1 N/A Qatar & Oman Investment 12.31 (1.12) (1.12) 388 20.2 1.2 4.1 Islamic Holding Group 37.00 (4.64) (4.64) 148 23.6 2.8 3.0 Banking and Financial Services 202,506 Zad Holding 62.20 (1.27) (1.27) 814 8.7 1.1 6.4 Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices 14.30 (0.69) (0.69) 165 N/M 0.9 N/A Salam International Investment 12.07 (3.29) (3.29) 1,380 22.9 0.9 5.8 Medicare Group 44.55 (7.09) (7.09) 1,254 21.1 1.6 4.0 Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution 49.10 0.00 0.00 280 29.7 2.1 4.1 Qatar Fuel 270.00 (4.56) (4.56) 17,542 15.4 3.1 3.7 Qatar Meat and Livestock 49.50 (6.07) (6.07) 891 13.6 3.9 8.1 Al Meera Consumer Goods 122.20 (7.07) (7.07) 2,444 16.0 2.0 6.5 Consumer Goods and Services 24,769 Qatar Industrial Manufacturing 49.00 1.87 1.87 1,940 11.4 1.5 6.1 Qatar National Cement 101.00 (1.17) (1.17) 4,959 11.4 2.1 5.9 Industries Qatar 146.00 (4.89) (4.89) 88,330 9.8 2.9 5.3 Qatari Investors Group 26.65 (4.99) (4.99) 3,313 16.6 1.6 2.8 Qatar Electricity and Water 153.10 (3.10) (3.10) 15,310 10.7 2.9 4.8 Mannai Corp. 83.20 (0.95) (0.95) 3,796 8.8 1.7 5.7 Aamal 14.30 (2.05) (2.05) 8,580 13.4 1.3 N/A Gulf International Services 44.20 (7.92) (7.92) 6,571 11.7 2.4 3.4 Industrials 132,800 Qatar Insurance 59.50 (0.83) (0.83) 7,642 9.2 1.6 3.4 Doha Insurance 25.00 (3.85) (3.85) 644 11.7 1.3 3.6 Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance 51.00 (0.58) (0.58) 2,940 3.5 0.9 1.7 Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance 38.20 (5.68) (5.68) 652 13.7 1.2 2.2 Qatar Islamic Insurance 54.00 (5.92) (5.92) 810 13.7 3.1 6.5 Insurance 12,687 United Development 20.02 (6.45) (6.45) 6,751 8.9 0.6 5.0 Barwa Real Estate 24.00 (2.04) (2.04) 9,339 15.5 0.7 6.3 Ezdan Real Estate 17.18 (1.49) (1.49) 45,570 N/M 1.6 0.8 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development 11.26 (0.62) (0.62) 1,126 16.9 1.0 5.3 Real Estate 62,786 Qatar Telecom 129.90 (6.55) (6.55) 41,610 12.4 1.6 3.8 Vodafone Qatar 8.81 (2.33) (2.33) 7,448 N/M 1.2 N/A Telecoms 49,058 Qatar Navigation (Milaha) 76.10 (2.44) (2.44) 8,715 9.0 0.7 4.9 Gulf Warehousing 39.20 (1.38) (1.38) 1,864 19.3 2.5 N/A Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) 18.25 (5.39) (5.39) 10,220 13.6 3.2 5.5 Transportation 20,800 Qatar Exchange 505,406

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