As technology speeds up we are all having to raise our game to cope with the onset of new and complex problems that inevitably need a fast fix. The old ways and methods certainly served us well, but they are increasingly putting us at risk, and it is now very often the case that: ‘Simple thinking and simple solutions no longer work’ So in my new role as a Visiting Professor at the University of Suffolk in Ipswich UK I am turning my mind to how we should educate and train our young engineers and budding managers for a future dominated by non-linearity and chaos born of increasing complexity (in the math sense). In this slide set I have tabulated some of the many problems that we now face along with our own very human limitations. These are complemented by a series of suggestions and approaches that are proven, and about to be augmented by AI, sophisticated computer modelling, and decision support. If problems are simple, complicated and essentially linear, we generally have all the techniques and solutions to hand, but if they are complex and non-linear, we are almost always flying blind and have to apply new ways of thinking to achieve success. We have no generalised solutions to non-linear problems, but occasionally we have point, or limited domain solutions, that are unique to a given situation. Unfortunately, classical mathematics is of limited use here and we have to resort to computational power. This is the first in a library off presentations being prepared for the UoS

1. C r i t i c a l T h i n k i n g
For Engineers
& Managers
P e t e r C o c h r a n e
cochrane.org.uk
ca-global.biz
Beyond the linear and simple
May 2017

2. o u r f o r m a l e d u c at i o n
Is all about the known the well understood
“What we can model and characterise
forms the bedrock of our most
basic understandings founded
on the strongest of scientific
principals - tried & tested
results over millennia”
It is the best formula our species
has derived - and responsible for
all human progress - all other
routes lead to belief systems -
witchcraft and general ignorance
“Whilst it is quite acceptable for the mathematicians,
physicists (et al) to declare that a problem cannot be solved -
we ENGINEERS enjoy no such luxury - we always have to get
an answer”

3. a u n i v e r s e o f t h e u n k n o w n
How much does our formal education prepare us for this ?
“As a young student coming into
industry I thought I knew and
understood a lot and I was well
prepared to tackle anything”
“I quickly realised that this was
not the case and my real education
was just about to start - and I am
still a student”
Where we are educated
What we understand well
Where we can solve problems
A mostly linear & well behaved space
What we know we know
What we know we don’t know
What we don’t know we don’t know
What we don’t know
What we know
Unknown ??? =

4. N o n l i n e a r u n i v e r s e
We have no generally applicable solutions
Our mathematics is limited to ‘Order 5’ at best
Our visualisation only extends to ~ 4 dimensions
Our simultaneous variable tracking is generally <7
Our linear problem sets are mostly bounded and trivial
Our non- linear problem sets mostly unbounded & complex
Our simultaneous variable tracking capability is generally <7
Sheer computing power and modelling dominate
Point solutions abound and we have to avoid misuse
The non-linear domain demands new approaches/thinking

5. t h e e n g i n e e r i n g t o o l b o x
Finding workable solutions can be really challenging
- Does a solution already exist?
- Has anyone else tackled the problem before?
- Do scientific/engineering papers report similar problem sets
- Apply basic analysis exploiting results of paper/people search
- Apply advanced analysis/modelling on the basis of the previous step
If none of the above works, then:
- Ask - what might a reasonable solution set be?
- Apply iteration starting from a best estimate/guess
- Conduct detailed experiments to gather data points
- Iterate toward a workable solution

6. d e c i s i o n T I M E
Fail fast and adapt even faster
In the face of incomplete data and/
or information - and facing a big
d e c i s i o n d e a d l i n e - m a k e a
decision and adapt rapidly to the
outcome…ie best guess followed by
iterations..
“ E v o l u t i o n f a v o u r s t h e m o s t
adaptable and not the strongest or
the smartest”

7. s i m p l e s y s t e m s
Generally within the grasp of a single mind
α
Output ≈ Input (Energy)
Directly related/predictable
Can be conceived, designed and (sometimes)
built by a single person

8. C O M P L i c at e d s y s t e m s
Generally beyond the grasp of a single mind
Output ≈ Input (Energy)
Directly related/predictable
Might be conceived by a single person, but
(nearly always) designed and built by a team

9. C O M P L E X s y s t e m s
Generally demands far more than human minds
Output ≈ Input (Energy or State)
Not directly related/predictable
Individual components may be simple, linear, well
behaved, conceived, designed and (sometimes)
built by a single person, BUT the sum of the parts
can and exhibit unexpected and unpredictable
behaviours
Medical conditions
Teleco Networks
Weather systems
Financial systems
Mobile networks
Political systems
Mobile networks
Power grids
Internet
Conflict
Warfare
IoT
BMOD
Strokes
Missiles
Rockets
Flooding
Tsunamis
Landslides
Earthquakes
Crime waves
F1 racing cars
Fighter aircraft
++++++

10. No top down design
Impossible to specify
Impossible to design
Difficult to model
Easy/Hard to realise
Easy/Hard to control
Easy/Hard to operate
Unpredictable
Evolves + Adaps
Always Changing
Unstable/Stable
Emergent behaviours
Beyond human grasp and abilities
Established wisdoms do not apply
Mathematics no longer works
No general laws
C O M P L E X i t y
Governs the universe and all life
Only ever Evolves/Grows/Builds
from small to big
simple to complex
And NEVER the converse

11. s p r e a d M o d e
Biological & man made commonality
Virus
Meme
Desease
Malware

12. AXIOM...still not understood by many...
Taking an interest in every system known to mankind pays dividends in
providing us with insights and challenging concepts and occasionally ,
really useful results...
..and we no longer design, deploy and operate our systems in
isolation...we live in a world of natural and unnatural
systems... evolved and designed...
...and the way they connect coexist and interact is important
especially when life dependency and mission critical issues
are at stake !

13. Only we design & optimise - evolution rests at good enough
“We often appear use vastly complex solutions to
achieve incredibly simple outcomes…whilst Mother
Nature mostly seems to do the converse”
B I G D i f f e r e n c e s
“Mother Nature cannot do what we do,
but then she is still confounding us”

14. Only goes for ‘good enough’ and optimises nothing
She conceals her underlying complexity at
every level of her constructs and activity...
M o t h e r N a t u r e
Her systems are resilient or they rapidly die
out..
The over optimisation of
companies and organisations
in a fast evolving field
leads to their certain demise

15. Defining ‘good enough’ is not always trivial
and is generally the biggest challenge !
~80% of the need satisfied by ~20% of
the effort….and then often destroyed/
devalued by specification creep….
P e r f e c t i o n
The enemy of good enough
Just because we can add something extra
does not mean we should….we have to
think in terms of the value to be realised…

16. Analogue dominant
Digital spreading fast
Hybrid Analogue//Digital ubiquitous
What we know advancing rapidly
Our understanding mathematically limited
Made by mankind we all die without them
Made by machine we all die without them
Our species survival depends upon good systems
Our planets survival depends upon good systems
Machine intelligence overtaking us in many areas
Symbiosis necessary man machine partnerships
Challenges formidable but interesting
G e n e r a l i t i e s
The technology/engineering status quo

17. Stored information growth
1986
I can’t draw a
dot small
enough!!
.
1996
0.001ZB
2006
0.13ZB
2016
13ZB
Impossible to read everything professional for >50 years
ZetaByte = 1021 ExaB = 1018 PetaB = 1015 TeraB = 1012
Prognosis: IoT small data distributed
storage may exceed the
internet

18. >20M texts available
<3M selected for analysis
Argument abstracted pro - con
No human resource can
do this !

19. THE BOX
In, out, or new ?
You can think
inside the box
OR You can create
an entirely
new box !
You can think
outside the box

20. DIVERSITY
Mostly essential
Capable people of differing
ethnics groups; social, education
industry experiences; with a wide
range of discipline differences
and diverse modes of thinking
Proven AI engines, modelling and
visualisation tools are useful
augmentations to help/overcome
the limitations of human thinking
It is never too late to stop
everything, abandon a given path
and start again
Search out and identify all those
who may be able to help you and
form a (real/virtual) team

21. STATUS QUO
Breaking new ground
“If it your problem were simple,
someone would have solved it a
long time ago”
“Be prepared to consider and
employ the radical, the new,
and even the crazy”

22. PENUMBRA/Thoughts
Your chance to ask questions and discuss
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May 2017