2. UNIT 3A: OUTLINE: KEY CONCEPTS
KEY CONCEPTS
Open, closed and invisible primaries
The caucus system
The balanced ticket
Candidate and issue centred campaigns
Momentum
Soft and hard money
Negative campaigning
Insider and outsider candidates
Fixed terms
Swing states
3. OUTLINE: KEY IDEAS
Answering questions on this topic requires
knowledge of:
The main characteristics of presidential and
congressional elections and campaigns.
The main influences on their outcomes.
Candidate selection and nomination through the
primary and caucus system and the role of the
national nominating conventions
Debates concerning the workings and outcomes of
the Electoral College and its impact on campaigns
4. OUTLINE: KEY IDEAS
Answering questions on this topic requires
knowledge of:
The significance of money as a factor in electoral
success.
The impact of the media on campaigns and candidates
Direct democracy at State level through the use of
referendums
Initiatives, propositions and recall elections, and
debates concerning their use
Comparisons with the UK electoral process to illustrate
arguments
5. US Elections
Cornerstone of a liberal democracy is the holding of
regular, fair elections.
The right of citizens to be represented and to vote
was entrenched in the Constitution of the USA (with
the exception of women who had to wait well over a
century for that right).
As other groups such as ex-slaves and Native
Americans became citizens, they too were offered the
right to vote.
Probable that USA offers more elected posts than
any country in world, approx over 80,000.
6. US Elections
The average voter in the US is assaulted with a
seemingly non-stop barrage of available voting
opportunities.
These range from the President, through Congress to
a wide variety of state and local elections.
We cant look at them all here, and you are not
required to understand too many. While we will start
with the most well known – the contest for
Presidency – remember that examiners like us to
show that we understand that elections take place at
other levels.
7. US Elections
The average voter in the US is assaulted with a
seemingly non-stop barrage of available voting
opportunities.
These range from the President, through Congress to
a wide variety of state and local elections.
We cant look at them all here, and you are not
required to understand too many. While we will start
with the most well known – the contest for
Presidency – remember that examiners like us to
show that we understand that elections take place at
other levels.
8. Electing the President – Every Four Years
Pre-
primaries
Primary elections and
caucuses
National
nominating
conventions
General
election
Voting day Electoral
count
Inauguratio
n of the
president
At least one
year before
the Primaries
January
Super-
Tuesday
February
August/Sep
September
to
November
Tuesday after
the first
Monday in
November
January
6th
(usually)
January 20th
9. The Importance of ‘Pre-Primaries’
If federal elections have become ‘non-stop’, nothing
shows this better than so called pre- or invisible
primaries.
Their importance has been recognised recently,
whereby presidential candidates effectively begin
their campaigns up to four years before general
elections.
This is particularly true of candidates who are not
incumbent Presidents, or not familiar to the public,
and they take every media opportunity to be known.
10. The Importance of ‘Pre-Primaries’
The crucial factor about these is that the candidates who
have entered the primaries as favourites in public
opinion polls have in nearly all cases gone on to win their
party’s nomination.
As a result, this throws some doubt on the worth of
primaries.
As we will see, this pattern did not happen for 2008, but
there were many special factors about these elections.
These ‘invisible’ primaries can greatly increase the length
and cost of presidential elections.
By 2003, GW Bush had spent over $2 million prior to
official primary elections that began in January 2004.
11. The 2007 Pre-Primaries (invisible)
All records for electoral finances were beaten in
remarkable elections of 2008.
Dubbed the ‘longest Presidential race in history’
Front runners were emerging long before the elections
began in 2008.
Clinton, Romney and Obama had already raised over
$20 million in the first three months of 2007.
Quickly evident that 2008 race would become most
expensive to date.
Most candidates had declared intention to campaign well
before the first primary elections in January of that year.
12. The 2007 Pre-Primaries (invisible)
As we said, pre-primaries usually provide us with
clues as to the result of the following Primary
Elections.
The Republican candidate leading at the outset of the
election year has tended to end up as the Party’s
nominee at the Party Convention.
The same has usually been true of the Democrat
Party, although not invariably.
By July 2007 Clinton (D) and Giuliani (R) were
leading their contests at 38% and 30% in polls.
13. The 2007 Pre-Primaries (invisible)
McCain trailed in third place at this stage on 14%, a
steady drop from just two months before.
His funds were running low and chances looked slim
The relatively unknown Obama came second in the
Democratic polls on 25% with John Edwards coming
in third on 16%.
All this indicates just how important pre-primaries
have become. Candidates were using this time to sort
themselves out.
14. The 2007 Pre-Primaries (invisible)
They were jostling for the top slots in January 2008.
IN both parties, the position was to change significantly
as the Pre-Primaries and Primaries unfolded.
By October 2007, several names were being mentioned
as ‘favourites’
Democrats – Clinton, Obama, Edwards
Republicans – Giuliani, Thompson, Romney.
Other polls now began to mention McCain as a possible
Unusually by Jan, neither party had a clear front runner,
and this had effect of raising public interest.
15. 2007 Pre Primaries – Early Issues
Clinton meant that others had to make a real effort
to attract the votes of women.
Allowed candidates like Huckabee (Republican) and
Obama (Democrat) to become better known to
voting public
New records set for fundraising which worried many
who saw this as anti-democratic.
16. 2011 Pre-Primaries
By Feb 2011, nearly 80 candidates had declared
themselves as presidential candidates for 2012
US media was soon full of speculation as to which
Republican candidates would challenge Obama
By Feb, it was also reported that Tea Party
supporters were taking over Republican Party
organisation in crucial primary of New Hampshire.
Sarah Palin was a leading figure in speculation at
this time.
17. 2011 Pre-Primaries
After disastrous results in 2010 midterms, Obama
was now focusing his strategy more on problems of
the economy.
What follows from about Jan to Aug in the election
year is the period when the candidates for the two
main parties are selected.
It used to be that this would be done by state party
conventions, effectively private meetings, but now
the choice is made either through primary elections
or, in a few states, caucuses.
