Jim Brulte - 2012 election Unlike Any Other


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Jim Brulte - 2012 election Unlike Any Other

  1. 1. 2012 - An Election Unlike Any We Have Ever Experienced<br />A Presentation Prepared for the<br />California Contract Cities Association<br />Saturday, October 15, 2011<br />By Senator Jim Brulte (Ret.)<br />
  2. 2. Redistricting<br />This will be the first time since 1992 that legislators and members of Congress will be running in districts NOT drawn by politicians<br />Populations shifts will result in consolidation of districts in the Bay Area and creation of districts in the Central Valley and Inland Empire<br />Many members will be running in significantly redrawn districts (In 1992, then Assemblyman Jim Brulte’s district was divided into 5 different Assembly districts and he ran in a new district almost 80% of which he had not represented before)<br />
  3. 3. Redistricting Criteria (Priority Order)<br />Comply with the state and federal Voting Rights Act prohibiting discrimination in voting procedures and practices<br />Be geographically contiguous<br />Respect boundaries of cities, counties, neighborhoods and other communities of interest<br />Be geographically compact<br />Be “nested”– i.e., two Assembly districts nested within each Senate district; 10 Senate districts nested in each Board of Equalization district<br />Not consider any advantage or disadvantage to incumbents, candidates or parties <br />
  4. 4. Turnout<br />A Presidential Primary has a huge impact on voter turnout<br />In 2008, the February stand-alone Presidential Primary had a voter turnout of 57.71%<br />In the June 2008 Congressional/Legislative Primary, turnout was only 28.22%<br />The Governor and Legislature have consolidated the Presidential and Congressional/Legislative primaries to June 5, 2012  <br />
  5. 5. Safe Seats<br />Based upon the historical standard of “safe” verses “competitive” districts, there will likely be a few more competitive legislative and congressional districts<br />That said, given that the top two vote-getters regardless of political party run off in the November General Election, the historical notion of “safe” districts now no longer applies<br />If 5 GOP candidates and 2 Dem candidates run in a primary in a so called “safe” GOP seat, it is possible that the top two vote-getters would be Democrats <br />Given that the top two vote-getters regardless of party run off in the November General Election, many GOP and Dem incumbents can no longer consider their seats “safe”<br />
  6. 6. 1998 Open Primary<br />In open primaries, voters of all political parties tend to migrate to where the “battle” is: for example, in the 1998 open primary, GOP candidates in the 5th AD garnered over 67% of the vote even though the GOP registration was only 38.5% <br />If the “Top Two” had been in place in 1998, 5th Assembly District GOP Nominee Dave Cox would have run against another Republican in November<br />Current Senate President Pro-Tem Darrell Steinberg ran for the Assembly in 1998. Instead of being the DEM nominee, he too would have run off against a member of his own political party<br />Under the new Prop 14 rules, candidates do not need to identify their party affiliation…in fact GOP candidates can even state a preference for the Democratic Party or vice versa<br />
  7. 7. Local GOP Fundraising More Important<br />With Passage of Prop 25 (Majority Vote for State Budgets) there is some evidence the Sacramento political/special interests are providing fewer contributions to GOP legislators<br />If two GOP incumbents are running for the same legislative seat, this will have a chilling effect on “Third House” contributions<br />Local fundraising is less important to Democrats because they control the state Legislature and with control comes significant special interest money<br />Because failing to run a campaign in the primary could be a career-ender, many candidates will need to raise much more money each election cycle<br />
  8. 8. Independent Redistricting Creates an Opportunity for both the GOP and DEMS<br />While many GOP legislators, donors and activists, believe a “fair” redistricting presents a GREAT opportunity, there is also a HUGE potential downside risk for the GOP as well<br />If the Democratic Party’s consistently overwhelming financial advantage is not countered at the legislative level, it is possible that Democrats obtain a two- thirds majority in one or both houses of the state Legislature in 2012<br />Because the national GOP controls the US House of Representatives, they should have at least financial parity if not an outright financial advantage<br />
  9. 9. Labor Could Play a Very Influential Role in the GOP “Primary” Process<br />With Prop 14 (Open Primary) as established law, California labor unions are now talking seriously about significantly participating in GOP primaries<br />If labor does engage is a serious way, this will have very far reaching ramifications for elections and for legislative decision-making<br />When the business community (e.g., JobsPAC) gets involved in a Democratic Party primary election, unions, trial lawyers and environmentalists mount a counter effort<br />As of today, there is no identifiable GOP funding operation to counter labor involvement in “GOP” primaries<br />
  10. 10. Minority Growth Currently Endangering Republicans Everywhere<br />Latinos and Asian Americans now constitute an absolute majority of Californians<br />Latinos grew by 28% between 2000 and 2010, Asians by 31%<br />Latinos alone now constitute an absolute majority of Californians under 18<br />16 counties gained between 30.1-40% in Latino population, and another seven between 20.1-30%<br />By 2040, Latinos will comprise an absolute majority-52% of Californians<br />
  11. 11. The Changing California Electorate: Whites Decline, Latinos Rise<br />In 1994, when then Governor Pete Wilson won re-election, white voters constituted 82% of the electorate; Latino voters were only 8%<br />By 2006, whites made up 75%, and Latinos 12%<br />In 2010, whites were 62%, Latinos 22%. This is why Meg Whitman could carry the white vote and still lose the state by 13 points.<br />
  12. 12. Average Republican % of the Vote<br />Presidential and Governor’s Races<br />1994-2010<br />Latinos: 25.3%<br />Asian Americans: 37.7%<br />It is a numerical certainty that Republicans cannot continue to receive these percentages of the vote among the fastest growing voter groups, and ever expect to win statewide elections in the future.<br />
  13. 13. 1992<br />2011<br /><ul><li>Democrats 49%
  14. 14. Republicans 37%
  15. 15. Independent (DTS) 10%
  16. 16. Democrats 44%
  17. 17. Republicans 30.9%
  18. 18. Independents(NPP) 20.4%</li></ul>Party Registration– 1992-2011<br />
  19. 19. For More Information<br />Jim Brulte, Principal<br />California Strategies<br />4254 Foxborough Drive<br />Fontana, CA 92336<br />(909) 646-7525 (O)<br />(909) 646-7522 (F)<br />(916) 919-3097 (C)<br />(909) 922-5039 (H)<br />SenatorJim31@aol.com<br />