Presentation by Dr. James M. Vose to support the Adaptive Silviculture for Climate Change (ASCC) J.W. Jones Ecological Research Center Workshop held January 12-14, 2016

1. Climate Change for the Southern
Coastal Plain
James M. Vose
Center for Integrated Forest Science
USDA Forest Service
Southern Research Station

2. Today’s Talk….
• Overview and summary of potential changes
in climate for the coastal plain
• Discussion of direct and indirect effects
• Introduction to potential impacts and
vulnerabilities

3. Direct effects
o Warming
o Changing precipitation (amount and extremes)
o Elevated CO2
o Sea level rise
Indirect effects
o Fire
o Insects and pathogens
o Invasive species
Combined effects, stress complexes
Climate change effects on SE Coastal
Plain forests
Changing Forests…Enduring Values

4. Updated Climate Projections

5. Future climate
Temperature Precipitation
Changing Forests…Enduring Values
From Kunkel et al. (2013)

6. Temperature Precipitation
warmer wetter or drier

7. Changes are predicted to impact species….

8. ….and processes
Lockaby et al. 2011
less
more

9. Extremes may be
more important
than changes in
the mean
Climate Variability & Extremes

10. Drought severity will increase
Changing Forests…Enduring Values
From Burke et al. (2006)
…the “hotter drought” (Millar and Stephenson 2015)

11. Clark et al. 2016 (Chapter 4)
DROUGHT in the SE Coastal Plain

12. Projected Keetch-
Byram drought index,
based on temperature
and precipitation
changes for the end
of the 21st century
Orange-red colors
indicate areas with
highest fire potential
Projected wildfire potential
Changing Forests…Enduring Values
Data from Liu et al. (2010)
Winter
AutumnSummer
Spring

13. Insects and Pathogens
Kolb et al. (2016)

14. Invasives?

15. Interactions of multiple
stressors will accelerate
with higher temperature
and more droughts
Stress complexes for
upland and coastal
forests in the
southern U.S.
Stress complexes will be affected
by a warmer climate
Changing Forests…Enduring Values
From Don McKenzie

16. Understanding and Managing Forests
in the Face of Climate Change
Challenges:
• Responses to novel and extreme conditions
– Biological
– Physical
• Multiple, co-occurring stresses (complexes)

17. Impacts and Vulnerabilities
Forests are adapted to climate variation and
composition, structure, and function has been
shaped by historical and contemporary climate
and disturbance regimes
• varies among species and ecosystems
• management has and can shape resilience and
resistance

18. Impacts and Vulnerabilities
Forests in many areas in the eastern US are
changing in response to recent climate trends
and new disturbance regimes…
McEwan et al. 2011
• mesophication of eastern
hardwood forest
• altered vulnerability to future
climatic conditions
pine plantation
vs. hardwood
• more susceptible to threshold
responses?

19. Elliott and Vose 2011

21. (Klos et al. 2009)
Fig. 2. Mean annual mortality rates by drought class for the (a) pine, (b) oak, and (c) mesophytic species
groups. For each species group, the results of the least significant difference test are indicated with letter
designations shown above each bar. Significant differences were determined using a P value of 0.05.

22. Millar and Stephenson (2015)
How will SE Coastal Forest Ecosystems Respond to New Disturbance Regimes?

23. Can we manage forests to change thresholds or
keep ecosystem services once thresholds are
crossed?
Manage “mega-disturbance” occurrence?
Manage “mega-disturbance” impacts by….
Managing species?
Managing genetics?
Managing structure?
Clark et al. (2016)

24. Manage Impacts?

26. Conclusions
• Predicting climate futures are uncertain, but
most models predict hotter and drier – the
“hot drought”
• Forests are already being impacted by these
environmental conditions (lower growth;
higher mortality)
• It’s complicated – stresses are usually not
individual, but rather a combination of
stressors

27. Conclusions
• These stress complexes may create conditions
that “tip” forests to new states – these may be
undesirable
• Management intervention may be required to
change the tipping point and/or minimize
impacts on ecosystem services.