What do the opinion polls tell us and what does it mean for politics?

What do the opinion polls tell us and
what does it mean for politics?
Contacts: Bobby.Duffy@ipsos.com 020 7347 3000
#showmethedata

What do the opinion polls tell us and
what does it mean for politics?
Bobby Duffy, MD Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute
Bobby.Duffy@ipsos.com
@BobbyIpsosMORI

4September’s poll showed a curbing of enthusiasm
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Conservative lead = -10
All giving a voting
intention:
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
30%
40%
10%
10%
10%
Base 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th -9h September 2013, all certain to vote = 545
Labour
Conservative
Lib Dem
UKIP
Other
All certain to vote:
34%
37%
10%
11%
8%

5
Labour are holding on to most of 2010 voters
Still Con/Lab/LD, not certain to vote
Base: 8,091 GB adults 18+, January-August 2013
Voted Tory
in 2010
Voted LD
in 2010
Voted Labour
in 2010
Still Con/Lab/LD and certain to vote
Not Con/Lab/LD any more
49%
20%
31%
59%23%
18%
26%
13%61%

6
Not winning over many Tories…
Still Con, not certain to vote
Voted Tory
in 2010
Still Con and certain to vote Not Con any more
49%
20%
13%
5%
2%
11%
Other
Lib Dems
UKIP
Labour

7
Relying heavily on Lib Dem switchers
Still LD, not certain to vote
Voted LD
in 2010
Still LD and certain to vote Not LD any more
26%
13%
29%
7%
5%
20%
Other
UKIP
Conservatives
Labour

8
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
Can tell us about the issues...
The economy
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
May
1997
May
1998
May
1999
May
2000
May
2001
May
2002
May
2003
May
2004
May
2005
May
2006
May
2007
May
2008
May
2009
May
2010
May
2011
May
2012

9
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over
the next 12 months?
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month
But big increases in economic optimism recently
Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index =
% improve minus % get worse

10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Mar-90
Sep-90
Mar-91
Sep-91
Mar-92
Sep-92
Mar-93
Sep-93
Mar-94
Sep-94
Mar-95
Sep-95
Mar-96
Sep-96
Mar-97
Sep-97
Mar-98
Sep-98
Mar-99
Sep-99
Mar-00
Sep-00
Mar-01
Sep-01
Mar-02
Sep-02
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
Mar-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Best party on economy
Which party do you think has the best policies on the economy, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal
Democrats or some other party?
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
38%
20%
5%

11
What do you think are the two most important issues facing your country/you
are facing at the moment?
But need to look at what worries people
personally…
Base: c. 1,300 Source: Standard Eurobarometer 79 , Spring 2013
0
10
20
30
40
50
0 10 20 30 40
Rising prices/inflation
Unemployment
ImmigrationEconomic situation
Crime
Health and social securityPensions
Education system
Taxation
Housing
Terrorism
Environment
Most important issue for my country
Most important issue for me
personally

12
Much closer on this…
Do you think you and your family would be better off under a Conservative government or a
Labour government, or do you think it would make no difference?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th September 2013
22%
52%
23%
2%
Conservative
government
Labour
government
Make no
difference
Don’t know

But real value of opinion
polls much more than this

1. Learn more about
future from looking back
– changing generations…

Version 1 | Internal Use Only© Ipsos MORI
All data points represent > 200 responses Source: British Social Attitudes
Do you think of yourself as a supporter of any one political party?
Support for political parties is declining...
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
83 84 85 86 87 89 90 91 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
% Yes

Do you think of yourself as a supporter of any one political party?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers (1945-65) Generation x (1966-1979) Generation y (1980-2000)
% yes
...driven by rock solid generational pattern

“How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?”
Massive shift in generational voting patterns...
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
% Conservative

... Labour very different
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
% Labour

Just not true…
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Conservative Labour Liberal Democrat
Generation YGeneral elections
Lower sense of duty to vote: turnout vital,
sense of something at stake vital to that

Where have pre-war gone?
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
% Undecided
Largest increase in UKIP vote
76% of pre-war voted 2010
49% of generation Y....

2. Look
internationally - is
lack of political
engagement a
British disease?

“Do you feel closer to a particular party than all other parties?”
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
% “yes”
UK
We have widest dispersal between oldest and
youngest on connection to parties…

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
% “Yes”
Germany
Compare Germany…

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
% “Yes”
Sweden
Sweden very different pattern…

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
% “Yes”
Ireland
Irish brought together by rejection of all parties…

3. Remind us of our many
misperceptions…

© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
….including on immigration…
Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75, *British Social Attitudes
Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013 ; *Detailed country of birth and nationality analysis from the 2011 Census of England
and Wales, (May 2013) ONS. **Immigration Statistics, January to March 2013, (May 2013) Home Office.
What percentage of the
United Kingdom
population do you
think are immigrants to
this country (i.e. not
born in the UK)?
13
31
Actual
Average estimate
Top two answers why think higher:
we don’t believe you, illegal
immigration not counted…

© Ipsos MORI / King’s College London
NOT saying people stupid…
Can influence estimates – if incentivised, we get more
accurate…
“Mythbusting” alone unlikely to work: need clear narrative
and emotional appeal too
…because we have “motivated reasoning” on these
things: both “accuracy” and “directional” goals…
… “Emotional innumeracy”: we’re wrong because we’re
worried, as well as being worried because wrong…

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
The Sun Daily Mail Daily Mirror
Daily Telegraph Daily Star Daily Express
The Times The Guardian The Independent & I Newspaper
Other None
Most important issue: Race relations/immigration/immigrants
Key benefit of opinion polls: remind us to be wary of our own
perspective…
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index, 1996-2012
47ppt
range

Thank you
Bobby.Duffy@ipsos.com

What do the opinion polls tell us and what does it mean for politics?

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