1. How to Build an Early
Warning System to Harness
Predictability and Win in the
Market
A Complimentary Webinar from Aurora WDC
12:00 Noon Eastern /// Wednesday 12 June 2013
~ featuring ~
Nat Brooks
The Intelligence Collaborative
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Arik Johnson
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2. Principal of Strategy Shapers LLC, Nat Brooks brings 25 years of Fortune 500
management experience to the work of helping clients create world class
market and competitive intelligence, and winning business strategies.
From 2005 to 2012 Nat built Procter & Gamble’s Competitive Intelligence
organization, which today is an 850 member global community of practice
responsible for competitive analysis, early warning, tech. intelligence and
strategic analysis. A recognized leader in competitive strategy in the
consumer packaged goods industry, Nat was a member of P&G’s prestigious
CFO Circle. Nat has also mentored competitive and market intelligence
leaders at firms such as Newell Rubbermaid, Cintas, Brown-Forman and
NatBrooks@strategyshapers.com
Pella Window. Nat’s affiliations include:
(513) 274-8527
•
•
•
•
Aurora WDC G2 Program
SCIP (Strategy & Competitive Intelligence Professionals)
The Conference Board’s Competitive Intelligence Council
Advisory Board Fuld-Gilad-Herring Academy of CI
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3. Questions, Commentary & Content
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4. Agenda
Early Warning - Beyond theory to
practical execution
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What
How-to
Examples of success
Harnessing the power of early warning
Discussion
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5. Is Early Warning Possible?
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6. Strategic Early Warning Concepts
Gilad / Shell / etc
Macro Environment
Change Drivers
Identify Risks
Complex … Important …
NOT always practical
Analyze Risks
Monitor
Indicators
Social
Response to Risks
Management Action
Political
Environmental
Strategy & Action
Technology
Economic
Signals &
Signposts
Global
Scenarios
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Focused
Scenarios
Alerts &
Reports
Industry Structure
Review
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7. 14 January 2014
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8. Strategic versus Tactical?
You have to win battles if you want
to choose future battlefields!
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9. Crystal Ball Roadmap
NetOps
Based on Company Goals/Motivations
DIRECTV
mosaics,
“Active”
Networks offer download of
1yr old shows
DIRECTV
interactive NFL,
Fantasy
Football
DIRECTV
music
juke box
Other
InterVideo
PC HD/BR
DVD App
EPG
Apple
STB w/DVD burner
2009: Unidir.
Cable Shutoff
Tivo
CableCARD
TBD
Google Online Video
Search
iTunes adds
music videos
Tivo
Tahiti
Sony PS3
2007
TBD
Google Video Search adds TV
iTunes Video Store
Yahoo buys iFilm
OpenCable
devices begin
shipping
Comcast
Tivo DVR
2006
MS
2005
Scientific Atlanta
guide searches
content on network
PC
Analog Cable
Shutoff
Comcast buys Real
CE ship
HD DVD,
BluRay
Guideworks VRN/
mosaic guide
(integrated IPG +VOD)
Comcast/Tivo
aggregates web video
DIRECTV
media center
ships
Comcast
begins digital
simulcast
Studios create new release
window for downloads
TBD
Google Video Search adds
Movies
Mac Mini Media Center, Video
iPod
Yahoo signs content deals
Crystal Ball Limitations
• Feel good about the “if” but not necessarily the “when”
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Probably has the correct general points
Probably has the time wrong
Alternate options possible
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2008
TBD

10. Where Early Warning Can Work?
 High(er) purchase frequency
 Frequent propositional changes
 Intense jockeying (high marketing &
promotion levels)
 High contract turnover & poaching
 Seasonality
 Other …
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11. Industry Structure ENABLES Early Warning
Consumer Packaged Goods Example
 Sold through retailers and distributors
 ‘Packaged’ … which entails supply chain
requirements / constraints
 Marketed heavily through mass media
 Promoted by limited and consistent methods
 Heavily reliant of “new and improved”
variants and claims
 BUT most categories are not terribly “new”
 Products, packages and ingredients often
regulated
 Others…
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12. Industry Structure ENABLES Early Warning
Consumer Packaged Goods Example
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13. Mgmt Disciplines ENABLE Early Warning
Low Cost, Low Defect, Repeatability …
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Lean
Six Sigma
Other TQ methods (IWS, TPM, etc.)
Stage Gate project management methods
ISO 9000 and other quality control methods
MRP and ERP systems and protocols
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14. Early Warning System Design
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CI/MI should lead
Multi-functional participation required
Works very well as a team activity
Defined output … a forecast
Output MUST be tied to company’s resource
allocation / planning process
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15. Early Warning System Design
> +12 Months
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Patents
Alliances /
agreements
Conference papers
Investments
Capital projects
Third party chatter
Recruiting efforts
Etc.
+9-12 Months
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Trademarks
Permits
Trade shows
Third party chatter
Official
announcements
Etc.
+6-9 Months
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Trademarks
Sales chatter
Registrations
Contracts
Allowances
Import/export
Etc.
Event(s)
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Detailed analysis
Likely next moves
Market impact
Etc.
Building from core Intelligence work
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Competitor profiles (e.g., battle cards)
Various pattern analyses
Supply chain analysis
Financial analysis
Etc., etc.
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16. Early Warning System Design
> +12 Months





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
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Patents
Alliances /
agreements
Conference papers
Investments
Capital projects
Third party chatter
Recruiting efforts
Etc.
+9-12 Months






Trademarks
Permits
Trade shows
Third party chatter
Official
announcements
Etc.
+6-9 Months







Trademarks
Sales chatter
Registrations
Contracts
Allowances
Import/export
Etc.
Event(s)




Detailed analysis
Likely next moves
Market impact
Etc.
Building from core Intelligence work





The Intelligence Collaborative
http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
Competitor profiles (e.g., battle cards)
Various pattern analyses
Supply chain analysis
Financial analysis
Etc., etc.
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17. Key Element: Innovation Signatures
 Innovation Signature – pinpoints the signposts that precede product introductions
2 October, 2006
12 June, 2007
R&D Partnership Signed New Plant Announced
12 December, 2007
Environmental Registration
20 January, 2008
Design Registration
6 August, 2008
Trademark Filing
Jul 1, 2006
4 May, 2007
Patent Publication
27 October, 2007
New Supplier Partnership
13 April, 2008
6 October, 2008
Plant Local News Article Test Market Starts
13 January, 2009
"Announced" to Analysts
Jul 1, 2009
31 March, 2009
Trade Announcement
Launches are Project Managed (e.g., through Stage-Gate Processes) and for
specific types of projects there is a “signature” trail of preceding events with
“signature” lead times – the data is out there for recent launches to build the
pattern!*
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18. Key Element: Launch Patterns
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19. Key Element: Supply Chain Mapping
Henkel Slovensko spol. Sr. o.
Brastislava, Nove Mesto nad Vahom
Slovakia
F&HC(MMSU): 0.7
Mkt Entry: 1990
Ownership: 100%
Local production: Persil, Perwoll, Palmex, Rex, Dato, Azur, Sil
Imports: Silan
Henkel Easti
Estonia
F&HC(MMSU): 0.1
Mkt Entry: NA
Ownership: 100%
Imports: Persil, Rex, Silan, Pur
*No local production
Henkel Latvia
Latvia
F&HC(MMSU): 0.1
Mkt Entry: NA
Ownership: NA
Imports: Persil,Rex, Silan,
Pur
*No local production
HENKEL Corporate Presence
Henkel Lithuania
Lithuania
F&HC(MMSU): 0.1
Mkt Entry: NA
Ownership: NA
Imports: Persil,Rex, Silan, Pur
*No local production
Henkel CR.Spol. Sro
Prague
Czech Rep
F&HC(MMSU): 1.0
Mkt Entry: 1994
Ownership: 100%
Imports: Persil, Palmex,
Rex, Dato, Azur, Sil, Silan
*No local production
No Local Production
Henkel Russia
Tosno, Engels, Perm
Russia
F&HC(MMSU): 10.2
Mkt Entry: 1992
Ownership: Era:95.5%, Engels:100%, Perm:84%
Local production: Persil, Losk, Deni, Permos
Henkel Magyarorszag. Kft
Budapest, Szolnock,
Korosladany, Vac, Barcs
Hungary
F&HC(MMSU): 2.3
Mkt Entry: 1987
Ownership: 100%
Local production: Persil,Tomi
Kristaly , Perwoll, Rex
Imports: Silan
Henkel Polska
Warsaw:Raciborcz
Poland
F&HC(MMSU): 2.8
Mkt Entry: 1991
Ownership: 98%
Local production: Persil, Perwoll, Rex,
Orion
Imports: Somat, Silan
Kiev
3rd Party Distributors
Kazakhstan
F&HC(MMSU): 0.2
Mkt Entry: 2000
Ownership: NA
Imports: Persil, Deny
*No local production
Henkel Slovenija d.o.o
Maribor
Slovenia
F&HC(MMSU): 0.7
Mkt Entry:1990
Ownership: 100%
Imports: Persil, Rex,
W.Reisse,Perwoll, Silan
*No local production
Henkel Croatia d.o.o.
Zagreb
Croatia
F&HC(MMSU):0.2
Mkt Entry: 1994
Ownership: 100%
Imports: Persil, Rex,
W.Reisse, Perwoll, Silan
*No local production
Local Production
Albania
Imports: W.Reisse, Dixan
*No local production
Henkel Rep Office Skopje
Sarajevo
Bosnia&Herzegovina
F&HC(MMSU): 0.1
Mkt Entry: NA
Ownership: NA
Imports: Persil, Rex,
W.Reisse, Silan
*No local production
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Henkel Jugoslabia
Belgrade
Serbia
F&HC(MMSU): 0.01
Mkt Entry:NA
Ownership: NA
Imports: Persil, Pril
*No local production
Turk Henkel
Izmir, Gebze
Turkey
F&HC(MMSU): 2.9
Mkt Entry: 1956
Ownership: 100%
Local production: Persil,
Tursil, Perwoll, Vernel
Imports: Fasa
Henkel Bulgaria
Sofia
Bulgaria
F&HC(MMSU):0.2
Mkt Entry: 1998
Ownership: NA
Imports: Persil, Rex, Dixan,
Silan, W.Reisse, Perwoll,
*No local production
Henkel Rumania
Bucharest
Romania
F&HC(MMSU): 0.7
Mkt Entry:1994
Ownership: 100%
Imports: Persil, Perwoll,
Rex
*No local production
Henkel UZHGORD
Uzhorod, Kiev
Ukraine
F&HC(MMSU): 0.1
Mkt Entry: 1999
Ownership: 100%
Local production: Persil,
Losk, Rex
Central Europe North
Central Europe South
Balkan Markets
Eastern Europe
Turkey/Cauc.
Central Asian Reps
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20. Critical Output: Accurate Forecasts
One company’s
experience…
 40 Teams in place
 20 Product
categories
 Semi-annual
forecasts
 80+% accuracy +/one quarter
 Expanding
beyond product
changes to
include
commercial
activities
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21. Harnessing the Power of Early Warning
What can you gain from knowing?
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Time to think
Time to prepare
Time to react
Time to pre-empt
Time to lead
Time to work on other stuff
Even time to RELAX!
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TIME =
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22. Harnessing the Power of Early Warning
REACT
Raise competitor’s
costs!
PRE-EMPT
Raise competitor’s
stakes!
LEAD
Change rules of
the game!
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23. Some Closing Thoughts …
Favor the Tactical … Enable the Strategic
 Goal: Create time and space to maneuver
 Always recommend next moves / maneuvers
 Early Warning requires other work products
(e.g., competitor analysis) and generates new
ones (e.g., war games)
 Early Warning could be your single most
important intelligence product!

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24. Thank you! Now how about a little Q&A?
NatBrooks@strategyshapers.com
(513) 274-8527
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