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How to Build a Strategic Early Warning System
1. The Intelligence Collaborative
http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
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How to Build a Strategic
Early Warning System
A Complimentary Webinar from Aurora WDC
12:00 Noon Eastern /// Wednesday 14 May 2014
~ featuring ~
Arjan Singh Michel Bernaiche
2. The Intelligence Collaborative
http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
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Arjan Singh
Arjan Singh has a unique 360-degree view on the world of strategy and
competitive intelligence where he has educated many people in an
academic setting, consulted to major companies around the world and
worked industry side as a practitioner.
Arjan Singh is a well-known strategy and competitive intelligence
professional. His areas of interest include developing early warning
systems to proactively inform the strategy development and execution
& developing transparent strategy and CI process and content that
enable companies to make quicker and more informed decisions.
Arjan Singh is a lecturer of Strategy at the University of California, Irvine
where he teaches strategy and competitive intelligence to the MBA
program.
The Intelligence Collaborative is the online learning and networking
community powered by Aurora WDC, our clients, partners and other friends
and dedicated to exploring how to apply intelligence methods to solve real-
world business problems.
Apply for a free 30-day trial membership at http://IntelCollab.com or learn
more about Aurora at http://AuroraWDC.com – see you next time!
3. The Intelligence Collaborative
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Questions, Commentary & Content
4. HOW TO BUILD A
STRATEGIC EARLY
WARNING SYSTEM
14th May 2014
Arjan Singh
5. COMPETITIVE
INTELLIGENCE -
DEFINITION
CI provides actionable intelligence to
support decision making across an
enterprise.
The aim of CI is to align the organization
on the risks and opportunities to our
current and future business.
(C) 2014 ARJAN SINGH 5
7. STRATEGIC EARLY WARNING
ENABLES DECISION
FLEXIBILITY
• Early warning intelligence
can proactively increase
information certainty
• Doing so gives a company’s
management more
confidence and more time to
act to on likely future
developments
• The conversation changes
from ‘what does this mean’
to ‘which options should we
pursue proactively?’
Events
Lo
w
Hi
gh Decision
maker
flexibilit
y or
opportu
nity
Certainty of
information
(Accuracy)
Ti
me
(C) 2014 ARJAN SINGH 7
8. KEY BUILDING BLOCKS OF A
STRATEGIC EARLY WARNING
SYSTEM
(C) 2014 ARJAN SINGH
Timelines
Focus Process
8
9. TIMELINES: STRATEGIC
PLANNING TIME HORIZONS
VARY BY COMPANY AND
INDUSTRY
Planning Horizon (Years)
1 2 3
1 2 3 54
1 2 3 54 6
Tech
Pharma
Energy
• Tangible strategic plans
• Execution steps &
responsibilities
• Directional Strategy
7 8 9 10
(C) 2014 ARJAN SINGH 9
10. 1 2 3 54Pharma
Sales Marketing
Senior
Managemen
t
(C) 2014 ARJAN SINGH 10
TIMELINES: HOW FAR IN
THE FUTURE ARE THE
INTERNAL STAKEHOLDERS
THINKING?
11. TIMELINES: HOW FAR IN THE
FUTURE ARE THE INTERNAL
STAKEHOLDERS THINKING?
1 2 3 54Pharma
Sales Marketing
Senior
Managemen
t
Strategic CITactical CI
(C) 2014 ARJAN SINGH 11
12. HOW FAR IN FRONT OF
THE BUSINESS DO YOU
NEED TO YOUR EWS TO
FOCUS ON TO MAKE
TANGIBLE IMPACT?
1 2 3 54Pharma
Company
Sales Marketing
Senior
Managemen
t
10
(C) 2014 ARJAN SINGH
SEWS
12
13. HOW TO DEFINE THE FOCUS
OF A STRATEGIC EARLY
WARNING SYSTEM
(C) 2014 ARJAN SINGH
Scenarios
Issues
Strategy
•Define future
industry / world
scenarios
•Track Indicators of
change
•Senior
stakeholders
identify issues ‘top
of mind’
•Track issues
•Articulate Key Long
term strategies
•Track Assumptions
Guiding Principles
•‘Make it land in
your business’
•Delivery of analysis
that is close to
business issues
and timelines
13
14. PROCESS: BUILDING THE
“STRATEGIC EARLY WARNING
SYSTEM”
Indicators
Identification
and
Categorization
Early Warning
Testing and
Trial
Ongoing Early
Warning
System
Operation
January – April February – June July – December
•Define warning
system scope
•Corporate?
•BU?
•Product?
•Other?
•Generate
opportunity and
threat
scenarios/hypo
theses
•Develop
indicators
•Assess multi-
source
information
quality
•Design and trial
early warning
alerts
•Determine
dissemination
•Solicit feedback
•Ongoing
information
monitoring
against
indicators
•Analysis,
judgments,
implications,
and
recommendatio
ns
•Publish early
warning alerts(C) 2014 ARJAN SINGH 14
15. ROBUST DATASETS ARE
CRITICAL FOR EFFECTIVE
SEWS
(C) 2014 ARJAN SINGH
Four future scenarios and
relative location of
“Today”
Various Datasets
are analyzed and
organized by key
indicators / 15
16. EARLY WARNING ALERTS –
SCENARIO BASED APPROACH
(C) 2014 ARJAN SINGH
Monthly Data
analyzed and
organized by
key indicators
Supporting
datasets
Four future
scenarios and
relative
location of
“Today”
16
17. EARLY WARNING ALERTS –
ISSUES AND IMPACT ON
STRATEGY
Why is this Alert
important
How important
is it in context
of strategy
What are the
strategic
implications for
each BU
What are the
key details
behind this
Alert
(C) 2014 ARJAN SINGH 17
18. The Intelligence Collaborative
http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab
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Thank you! Now how
about a little Q&A?
Email: arjans@uci.edu
Arjan Singh
The Intelligence Collaborative is the online learning and networking
community powered by Aurora WDC, our clients, partners and other friends
and dedicated to exploring how to apply intelligence methods to solve real-
world business problems.
Apply for a free 30-day trial membership at http://IntelCollab.com or learn
more about Aurora at http://AuroraWDC.com – see you next time!
