The Food and Water Paradox - Dr Colin Chartres

The Food and Water Paradox Colin ChartresInternational Water Management Institute Photo Davidvan Cakenberghe/IWMI Photo: :Tom van Cakenberghe/IWMI Tom Brazier/IWMI Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

The Global Food and Water Paradox Feeding c.2 billion more peoplewith less water for agriculture than we have now in an era of climate change• Two key drivers: – Growing population, and – Growing wealth• Climate Change creating uncertainty Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

How has IWMI contributed?A journey through timeand into the futurerecognizing thecontribution of past andpresent staff and partners Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

Demography, Global GDP and Water Withdrawals 1900 - 2000 • Population increase about 3.6 times • Water withdrawals increased 6.8 times • GDP increased 19 times , about 3% per year (constant prices, IMF) GDP Total Agriculture Industry Municipal Pop. Acknowledgements to Jan Lundqvist, SIWI Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

Poverty and PopulationPopulationgrowth,dietarychange andpoverty andmalnutritionwill be keydrivers with Courtesy of Stan Wood, IFPRIrespect toagriculture Pop. m Pop. m Growth 2009 2050 Africa 1010 1998 98% Asia 4121 5231 27% Europe 732 691 - 5% LA and Caribbean 582 729 25% Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

Drivers paint a pessimistic picture even without climate change• Food production to increase by 70% by 2050 (World Food Summit, Rome)• Additional water required under BaU up to 6000 km3 (Comprehensive Assessment 2007) - from where?• CC may reduce potential yields in SSA and SA by 30% by 2030 (Lobell et al, Science, 2008)• Temperature increase may reduce yields of corn, soya beans and cotton by 30 – 46% in the US in a century (Schlenker & Roberts, PNAS, 2009) Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

The Green Revolution was fuelled by fertilizer and irrigation, but at a cost 2.5 320 World Bank lending for irrigation 280 2.0 Irrigated Area 240 ? 200 1.5 160 Food price index 1.0 120 Living Planet Index Freshwater Species 80 0.5 40 0 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

The River Basin approach• IWMI work stressed that irrigation has to be considered in a basin context and that other competing uses and the environment need to be considered.• This highlighted the significance of the IWRM approach that had been emerging for decades.• Studies demonstrated that some basins were rapidly “closing” due to over extraction of water• Water stress indicator Areas in red are where environmental water requirements may not be met under current usage (Smakhtin et al. 2004) Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

Where does all the water go? Thanks to David Molden Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

Water Scarcity in 2000From the Comprehensive Assessment of WaterManagement in Agriculture, 2007 Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

More Crop Per DropFrom the Comprehensive Assessment of WaterManagement in Agriculture, 2007 Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

Global Water Withdrawals:historical and projected (after Peter Gleick) Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

Approx. 2000 water withdrawalsn.b. consumptive demand is less than water withdrawals due to irrigationinefficiency Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

Climate change impacts• SRESA2 (A2) and SRESB1 (B1) IPCC scenarios show no clear trend in the total rainfall;• Potential evapotranspiration (PET), which is dependent upon the temperature, increases, with sharper increase after 2040• By 2050, for the irrigated area, the gap between PET and effective rainfall will be about 17% higher than the baseline for the A2 climate change scenario whereas it will be about 14% higher for B1 climate change scenario.• This will put extra stress on demand for irrigation water. Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

How can we respond to the paradox? • Improving irrigation efficiency and water productivity • Building resilience in terms of storage • Recycling and reuse • Industrial and urban efficiency • Water reform – policy, governance, institutions and regulation • Reducing food waste • Enhancing supply chains for the benefit of farmers, consumers and environment Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

Increase Productivity 6000  more crop per drop in 5000 irrigated and rainfed systemsCereal Production per Area (Kg/ha) Arab World 4000 Sub-Saharan Africa (developing only) Burkina Faso Bangladesh 3000 India Pakistan 2000 China Vietnam Thailand 1000 Brazil Colombia 0 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 Area (Km2) Thousands Courtesy Simon Cook Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

Participatory Irrigation Management(PIM)/Water Users Associations – its all about people, institutions and governance• Irrigation Management Transfer (IMT) served as the cornerstone of the IWMI, research agenda for nearly a decade.• PIM is now the paradigm for irrigation management, but there is emerging evidence that schemes are failing when financial support is withdrawn.• The trend in South Asia from government canal schemes to individual boreholes has created anarchy and a major groundwater management Region Success Failure headache. S Asia 18 20• How do we reinvigorate PIM? E Asia 7 2 SE Asia 12 24 C Asia 4 14

Wastewater ReuseCan we develop effective businessmodels that promote safe recyclingand reuse? Courtesy Pay Drechsel Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

Sustainable intensification – the coming challenge across many scales• Closing the actual vs potential yield gap (on farm issue)• Twice the yield off half the area? (on-farm issue)• Capitalizing on natural infrastructure (national policy issue)• Recognizing the value of ecosystem services (river basin/regional level issue)• The water-food-energy-environment nexus (national-transboundary issue) Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

What does sustainable intensification mean?• Minimal off-site movement of pollutants• Maintaining downstream flows and water quality• Utilizing natural infrastructure for water storage, flood prevention• Maintaining habitat for pollinators and conserving biodiversity, forest cover and grasslands• Sequestering carbon to improve soils and mitigate climate change• Maximizing energy efficiency, minimizing water consumption, resource reuse. Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

Hot spotsMany developing countries with high population growthand currently low agricultural productivity e.g.• India where water demand is forecast to exceed supply by 50% in 2030 and where the dry west has high productivity and the wet east, lower productivity• Pakistan, where “feudal” land tenure and water scarcity are compounded by a predicted population increase from 169m• to 295m in 2050• Sub-Saharan Africa where yields continue to stagnate in the face of a predicted 98% population increase Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

Conclusions• Food and water security issues are still daunting in the developing world• Business as usual paradigms have to be replaced• Sustainable intensification is the way forward, but will require significant investment in R&D, capacity building, land and water reform Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

ConclusionsIf we combine theseapproaches with reductionof food waste we can feed 2billion more people withoutsignificantly increasingagriculture’s footprint Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org

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The Food and Water Paradox - Dr Colin Chartres

by International Water Management Institute (IWMI) on Aug 28, 2012

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