The dual challenge: doubling
yields in the face of water
scarcity and climate change
Dr David Molden
IWMI
Water for a food-secure worldWater for a food-secure world
About IWMI
IWMI is one of 15 research centers supported by the
...
Water Scarcity 2000
1/3 of the world’s population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity
More People – 6.5 to 9 billion people by
2050
More calories & more meat, fish, milk
More food production – need to double ...
Climate Change
Mitigation is about gases.
Adaptation is about water.
Some areas will be wetter, others drier
Source: Arnell, 2003 – IWMI, FAO, ADB report on revitalizing irrigation.
Water Scarcity and Climate Change
Some areas wetter, some areas drier
Water for a food-secure world
Hydrological Modeling (SWAT)
Rainfall-Runoff simulation to determine impacts of CC on flow r...
Variability in Precipitation
Thornton et al 2006
likely to increase with climate change
- Costs 1/3rd of growth potential
- Occurs as prolonged dry spells, drought and floods
Impact of rainfall variability on G...
Growth in Yields
United States
China
Latin America
Sub-Saharan Africa
IPCC – yields in SSA will decline by 50%
because of ...
Solutions
Water
Management
Around 70% of the
world’s under-nourished
live in rural areas where
non-agricultural
livelihood options are
limited.
Get w...
But need to re-think water storage: role of groundwater and
soil moisture.
And beyond: insurance, local trade, …
Cubicmete...
Water for a food-secure world
Physical Water Storage Continuum
Growing Enough Food
With Water Scarcity and
Climate Change
David Molden
Irrigation
potential
developed:
Egypt,
Morocco,
Somalia, South
Africa > 75%
Botswana,
Sudan,
Zimbabwe,
Madagascar,
Mali, M...
Upgrade Water Management in Rainfed
Landscapes
Even if large scale irrigated area doubles, the
contribution to food produc...
Consider A Range of Agricultural Water
Management Options
Fish, Livestock, Crops,
Ecosystem Services
A range of options
Water sources in Krishna basin
Krishna river basin
24 major reservoirs
6100 small reservoirs
High groun...
Water for a food-secure world
Map source: Survey Dept.
For Water Security
Storage is the best
“No regret” option!
Water for a food-secure worldWater for a food-secure world
Doubling Yields
water + more
• Access to technology, seeds, fer...
FAO - SSA 245 Million 58% are rural
poor
AWM Team - SSA 279 Million 65% are poor
AWM Team -
India
220 Million 90% are poor...
If this is so good, why doesn’t it happen?
It is happening….
Small Reservoirs
Multiple-use systems
integrating domestic water, irrigation, fisheries, livestock,
industries – provide income, nutrition ...
Groundwater – offers
opportunities for the
rural poor.
Needs:
1) Better information
on availability
1) Access to
technolog...
A groundwater revolution in SSA: Benefits with little cost?
Groundwater is under-
utilized in Sub-
Saharan Africa
Cultivat...
Water for a food-secure world
It is happening….
But not fast enough!
Why doesn’t it happen faster?
• Missed opportunities:
–AWM falls between institutional cracks
–Failure to focus on women
•...
What will it take?
• Continuous learning from a range of
knowledge and experience
• A new and significantly increased capa...
Water for a food-secure world
Thank You !
“Anyone who can solve the problems of water will
be worthy of two Nobel Prizes –...
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The dual challenge: doubling yields in the face of water scarcity and climate change - Dr David Molden, IWMI

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The dual challenge: doubling yields in the face of water scarcity and climate change - Dr David Molden, IWMI

  1. 1. The dual challenge: doubling yields in the face of water scarcity and climate change Dr David Molden IWMI
  2. 2. Water for a food-secure worldWater for a food-secure world About IWMI IWMI is one of 15 research centers supported by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). Mission: To improve the management of land and water resources for food, livelihoods and the environment. Where we work: Headquarters: Colombo, Sri Lanka In Africa : Ghana, Southern Africa, Ethiopia In Asia: India, Pakistan, Nepal, Laos, Vietnam, Central Asia, Syria
  3. 3. Water Scarcity 2000 1/3 of the world’s population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity
  4. 4. More People – 6.5 to 9 billion people by 2050 More calories & more meat, fish, milk More food production – need to double grain production by 2050 More water for food – if practices don’t change, double water needs This equation doesn’t work – something has to change Will there be enough water? More people – 6.5 to 9 billion people by 2050 More calories & more meat, fish, milk More food production – need to double grain production by 2050 More water for food – if practices don’t change, water needs for agriculture will double Something has to change
  5. 5. Climate Change Mitigation is about gases. Adaptation is about water.
  6. 6. Some areas will be wetter, others drier Source: Arnell, 2003 – IWMI, FAO, ADB report on revitalizing irrigation.
  7. 7. Water Scarcity and Climate Change Some areas wetter, some areas drier
  8. 8. Water for a food-secure world Hydrological Modeling (SWAT) Rainfall-Runoff simulation to determine impacts of CC on flow regimes and groundwater recharge Rainfall Evapotranspiration Runoff Results – one scenario (A1B), one sub-catchment in the Volta
  9. 9. Variability in Precipitation Thornton et al 2006 likely to increase with climate change
  10. 10. - Costs 1/3rd of growth potential - Occurs as prolonged dry spells, drought and floods Impact of rainfall variability on GDP and Agricultural GDP growth -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 year % -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 rainfall variability GDP growth Ag GDP growth Unmitigated rainfall and hydrological variability Source: World Bank, 2006. A Country Water Resources Assistance Strategy for Ethiopia
  11. 11. Growth in Yields United States China Latin America Sub-Saharan Africa IPCC – yields in SSA will decline by 50% because of climate change It is possible to more than double yields in SSA in spite of climate change.
  12. 12. Solutions Water Management
  13. 13. Around 70% of the world’s under-nourished live in rural areas where non-agricultural livelihood options are limited. Get water to poor people, use it better Improve and Safeguard Water Access Access to Technologies
  14. 14. But need to re-think water storage: role of groundwater and soil moisture. And beyond: insurance, local trade, … Cubicmeterspercapita Water Storage Mitigates Climate Variability 4 43 746 1287 1406 2486 3255 4729 6150 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Kenya Ethiopia South Africa Thailand Laos China Brazil Australia North America Source:WorldBankdatafromICOLD
  15. 15. Water for a food-secure world Physical Water Storage Continuum
  16. 16. Growing Enough Food With Water Scarcity and Climate Change David Molden
  17. 17. Irrigation potential developed: Egypt, Morocco, Somalia, South Africa > 75% Botswana, Sudan, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Mali, Malawi, Uganda 50-75% Rest < 50% % Irrigated Land INDIA: ~50 SSA: 5
  18. 18. Upgrade Water Management in Rainfed Landscapes Even if large scale irrigated area doubles, the contribution to food production for SSA from irrigation would change from 5 to 11%. Rainfed land has the highest potential for poverty reduction and water productivity gains.
  19. 19. Consider A Range of Agricultural Water Management Options Fish, Livestock, Crops, Ecosystem Services
  20. 20. A range of options Water sources in Krishna basin Krishna river basin 24 major reservoirs 6100 small reservoirs High groundwater use
  21. 21. Water for a food-secure world Map source: Survey Dept. For Water Security Storage is the best “No regret” option!
  22. 22. Water for a food-secure worldWater for a food-secure world Doubling Yields water + more • Access to technology, seeds, fertilizers? • Is there enough money or credit to buy them? • Are markets available to sell? • Financially viable? • Water and land resources available? • Is it sustainable – financial, ecological? • Supportive policies? • “Mind mobilization” Matsepo Khumbane
  23. 23. FAO - SSA 245 Million 58% are rural poor AWM Team - SSA 279 Million 65% are poor AWM Team - India 220 Million 90% are poor Who could benefit from Agricultural Water Management Solutions? From Scoping Study for Agricultural Water Management Solutions Project
  24. 24. If this is so good, why doesn’t it happen?
  25. 25. It is happening….
  26. 26. Small Reservoirs
  27. 27. Multiple-use systems integrating domestic water, irrigation, fisheries, livestock, industries – provide income, nutrition and health benefits, and improve water productivity health labour saving, gender resilient food and income…. ..from livestock ..from fish ..from enterprise ..from crops
  28. 28. Groundwater – offers opportunities for the rural poor. Needs: 1) Better information on availability 1) Access to technologies 2) promote sustainable use IDE rope pump, Ethiopia
  29. 29. A groundwater revolution in SSA: Benefits with little cost? Groundwater is under- utilized in Sub- Saharan Africa Cultivatedareaas%ofcellarea In Asia groundwater is often the only water available
  30. 30. Water for a food-secure world It is happening…. But not fast enough!
  31. 31. Why doesn’t it happen faster? • Missed opportunities: –AWM falls between institutional cracks –Failure to focus on women • Water focus is on drinking water, hydropower, large irrigation • Its not just about technologies, but about markets, institutions, capacity
  32. 32. What will it take? • Continuous learning from a range of knowledge and experience • A new and significantly increased capacity • Crafting solutions, paying attention to context • Adapting technologies and institutions • Engaging public, policy makers & investors • You…..
  33. 33. Water for a food-secure world Thank You ! “Anyone who can solve the problems of water will be worthy of two Nobel Prizes – one for peace and one for science” John F Kennedy

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