The Food and Water
Paradox
Colin Chartres
International Water Management Institute
Photo Davidvan Cakenberghe/IWMI
Photo: :Tom van Cakenberghe/IWMI
Tom Brazier/IWMI
Water for a food-secure world
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The Global Food and Water Paradox
Feeding c.2 billion more people
with less water for agriculture than we have now
in an era of climate change
• Two key drivers:
– Growing population, and
– Growing wealth
• Climate Change creating
uncertainty
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How has IWMI contributed?
A journey through time
and into the future
recognizing the
contribution of past and
present staff and partners
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Demography, Global GDP and Water Withdrawals
1900 - 2000
• Population increase about 3.6 times
• Water withdrawals increased 6.8 times
• GDP increased 19 times , about 3% per year (constant
prices, IMF)
GDP
Total
Agriculture
Industry
Municipal
Pop.
Acknowledgements to Jan Lundqvist, SIWI
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Poverty and Population
Population
growth,dietary
change and
poverty and
malnutrition
will be key
drivers with
Courtesy of Stan Wood, IFPRI
respect to
agriculture Pop. m Pop. m Growth
2009 2050
Africa 1010 1998 98%
Asia 4121 5231 27%
Europe 732 691 - 5%
LA and Caribbean 582 729 25%
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Drivers paint a pessimistic picture even
without climate change
• Food production to increase by 70% by 2050 (World Food
Summit, Rome)
• Additional water required under BaU up to 6000 km3
(Comprehensive Assessment 2007) - from where?
• CC may reduce potential yields in SSA and SA by 30%
by 2030 (Lobell et al, Science, 2008)
• Temperature increase may reduce yields of corn, soya
beans and cotton by 30 – 46% in the US in a century
(Schlenker & Roberts, PNAS, 2009)
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The Green Revolution was fuelled by fertilizer
and irrigation, but at a cost
2.5 320
World Bank lending for
irrigation 280
2.0
Irrigated Area
240
?
200
1.5
160
Food price index
1.0
120
Living Planet Index
Freshwater Species 80
0.5
40
0 0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
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The River Basin approach
• IWMI work stressed that irrigation has to be considered in a
basin context and that other competing uses and the
environment need to be considered.
• This highlighted the significance of the IWRM approach that
had been emerging for decades.
• Studies demonstrated that some basins were rapidly “closing”
due to over extraction of water
• Water stress indicator
Areas in red are where environmental water requirements may not be met
under current usage (Smakhtin et al. 2004)
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Where does all the water go?
Thanks to David Molden
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Water Scarcity in 2000
From the Comprehensive Assessment of Water
Management in Agriculture, 2007
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More Crop Per Drop
From the Comprehensive Assessment of Water
Management in Agriculture, 2007
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Global Water Withdrawals:
historical and projected (after Peter Gleick)
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Approx. 2000 water
withdrawals
n.b. consumptive demand is less than water withdrawals due to irrigation
inefficiency
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Climate change impacts
• SRESA2 (A2) and SRESB1 (B1) IPCC scenarios show no clear trend in the total
rainfall;
• Potential evapotranspiration (PET), which is dependent upon the
temperature, increases, with sharper increase after 2040
• By 2050, for the irrigated area, the gap between PET and effective rainfall will be
about 17% higher than the baseline for the A2 climate change scenario whereas it
will be about 14% higher for B1 climate change scenario.
• This will put extra stress on demand for irrigation water.
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How can we respond to the paradox?
• Improving irrigation efficiency and water
productivity
• Building resilience in terms of storage
• Recycling and reuse
• Industrial and urban efficiency
• Water reform –
policy, governance, institutions and
regulation
• Reducing food waste
• Enhancing supply chains for the benefit of
farmers, consumers and environment
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Increase Productivity
6000
 more crop per drop in
5000 irrigated and rainfed
systems
Cereal Production per Area (Kg/ha)
Arab World
4000
Sub-Saharan Africa (developing only)
Burkina Faso
Bangladesh
3000
India
Pakistan
2000 China
Vietnam
Thailand
1000 Brazil
Colombia
0
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200
Area (Km2) Thousands
Courtesy Simon Cook
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Participatory Irrigation Management(PIM)/Water
Users Associations – its all about
people, institutions and governance
• Irrigation Management Transfer (IMT)
served as the cornerstone of the
IWMI, research agenda for nearly a
decade.
• PIM is now the paradigm for irrigation
management, but there is emerging
evidence that schemes are failing when
financial support is withdrawn.
• The trend in South Asia from
government canal schemes to individual
boreholes has created anarchy and a
major groundwater management Region Success Failure
headache. S Asia 18 20
• How do we reinvigorate PIM? E Asia 7 2
SE Asia 12 24
C Asia 4 14

Wastewater Reuse
Can we develop effective business
models that promote safe recycling
and reuse?
Courtesy Pay Drechsel
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Sustainable intensification – the coming
challenge across many scales
• Closing the actual vs potential yield gap (on farm
issue)
• Twice the yield off half the area? (on-farm issue)
• Capitalizing on natural infrastructure (national
policy issue)
• Recognizing the value of ecosystem services
(river basin/regional level issue)
• The water-food-energy-environment nexus
(national-transboundary issue)
Water for a food-secure world
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Sustainable intensification – the coming
challenge across many scales
• Closing the actual vs potential yield gap (on farm
issue)
• Twice the yield off half the area? (on-farm issue)
• Capitalizing on natural infrastructure (national
policy issue)
• Recognizing the value of ecosystem services
(river basin/regional level issue)
• The water-food-energy-environment nexus
(national-transboundary issue)
Water for a food-secure world
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What does sustainable intensification mean?
• Minimal off-site movement of pollutants
• Maintaining downstream flows and water quality
• Utilizing natural infrastructure for water
storage, flood prevention
• Maintaining habitat for pollinators and conserving
biodiversity, forest cover and grasslands
• Sequestering carbon to improve
soils and mitigate climate change
• Maximizing energy efficiency,
minimizing water consumption,
resource reuse.
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Hot spots
Many developing countries with high population growth
and currently low agricultural productivity e.g.
• India where water demand is forecast to exceed supply by 50%
in 2030 and where the dry west has high productivity and the wet
east, lower productivity
• Pakistan, where “feudal” land tenure and water scarcity are
compounded by a predicted population increase from 169m
• to 295m in 2050
• Sub-Saharan Africa where yields continue to stagnate in the face
of a predicted 98% population increase
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Conclusions
• Food and water security issues are still
daunting in the developing world
• Business as usual paradigms have to
be replaced
• Sustainable intensification is the way
forward, but will require significant
investment in R&D, capacity
building, land and water reform
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Conclusions
If we combine these
approaches with reduction
of food waste we can feed 2
billion more people without
significantly increasing
agriculture’s footprint
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