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Next Generation
Data Centers


Anil Vasudeva
Principal Analyst & President
anil@imexresearch.com
408-268-0800
                                                 IMEX
                                                 RESEARCH.COM
  ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                       IMEX
• Markets Drivers/Industry Dynamics
          Blades – An evolution from PC Servers to Supercomputers
          Major Applications – Access, HPC, NIC, TP
          4 Tiered Computing & Telecom Markets by Environment
          Incumbents vs. Startups

  • Market Segments – Mkt.Fcst./Shares/Channels
          Market Forecast, Migrations, Supply Chain, Channels, Price Erosion

  • Industry Issues/Technology Hurdles
          Stds./Midplane, Server Mgmt/DMTF, Fabric Choices
          Thermals, IP Acceleration

  • Futures Opportunities for Startups
          Complexity Reduction, Data Center Mgmt ,
          From Next Gen PCs to Clustered Supercomputers
          Interested Venture Capital
©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                               IMEX
Chaos in the Enterprise . . .
                                                                                                                   File transfers AIX to
                               Database extracts MVS                      FTP between Sun -                        HP/UX via Platinum
                               to SP2 via MQ Series 4.4                   NT                                       9.9
   Network
                            IBM3090-600J                                                 IBM RS6000
                                                                           TM   TM       AIX 4.1, 4.2, 4.3                        HP
                            MVS/ESA              Sun                                     DB2/6000                                 UX 10, 11.0, 11.2 MPE
 Server/OS                  IMS / ADABAS         Solaris 3.2, 3.4, 3.5                                                            Sybase 11.9, 12
                                                                            TM    TM
                                                 Oracle 7.5, 8.0
                                                                          Fujitsu
   Database                       IBM AS/400                              DS90UX                        Compaq
                                  OS/400                                  P/M                           ProLiant 2500,5500
                                                                                                        NT 3.5, 4.0 SQL
Application          CICS
                                  Batch            CAD/CAM                   Inventory                                                 PeopleSoft
                                                                                           Financials                   Lotus
                                                                E-commerce                                   Exchange   Notes
                                        OLTP
  Storage
                                           STK Silos                                                                                   Tape
                                                                         Legato to DLT
                   BU by FDR                           8mm Backup                                              Cheyenn
   Backup          Upstream                                                                  IBM               e to 4mm         HP
                                                                                             ADSM3490                           OmniBack

     Test

 Disaster             D/R plan (MF only)
 Recovery

   (1) Scales poorly (2) Difficult to manage (3) Reliability is questionable (4) Management costs out of control



        ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                                                                IMEX
Market Trends

 Data Center Automation Targets
                                                20-25%
       Servers
          Utilization                                                     80+%

                                        15-30
        Servers
  Servers/Admin                                                              500+
                                  1TB
        Storage
  Terabytes/DBA
                                                                            100TB

    Networks                                    50-100
Ntwk Ports/Admin                                                            500+

   System                                                HAL- 3 (99.9%)
 Availability
                                                                 HAL- 5 (99.999%)
 ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                             IMEX
Server Market Segmentation - Platforms



                                             Large SMP
                                             Parallel Sysplex
       Scale Up (Consolidated SMP Servers)




                                             Dynamic LPAR                 Rack Clusters
                                             SW Provisioning/VMWare       High Availability/
                                             IBM: i890/p690/z990          Hi Perform.Clusters
                                             SUN: SunFire 4800,12K        -Linux/AIX/Solaris Clusters
                                                                          - HPC Clusters
                                                                          DELL: PowerEdge 6650
                                                                          ORACLE: 9iRAC/PE6650


                                                                                          Blade Servers
                                                                                          High Density Rack Mount
                                                                                          -Highly Integrated Dense FF
                                                                                          -Rapid Deployment, Flex Architect.
                                                                                          -RLX: 300i, 800i, HP: 40b, p
                                                                                          -FUJITSU: BX300, DELL:1655
                                                                                          IBM: HS20,40,JS20 Sun:100 s,x



                                                                Scale Out (Clustered Blade Servers)

©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                                                          IMEX
3 Tier Computing Infrastructure
     Application
     End-Users
                                                        Uniform and ubiquitous physical
                                                         Connectivity – “Wire Once”
                                            Internet
                                                           Any user to any server via the
  Network Services:                                         Internet
    Web Servers,                                           Any server to any server via the LAN
      Firewalls,                                           Any sever to any storage via the SAN
   Load balancers
                                               LAN
                                                        Dynamic Logical Binding of…
                                                             …server network identify
Application Services:                                        …server OS version
Application Servers &                                        …server application assignment
  Database Servers                                           …application data volumes
                                               SAN      Resulting in
                                                           Application Mobility across servers
      Storage                                              Data mobility across storage

      ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                    IMEX
NexGen Architecture

                                                                Ethernet,
                                               Network Fabric   Wi-Fi.




                                                                    System Fabric
                         Management
                                                                                    Quadrics,
           SNMP,                                                                    Myrinet,
                           Fabric
            IETF/                                                                   InfiniBand,
             CIM,                                                                   Ethernet IP,
           SMI-S,                                                                   Ethernet IP w/TOE,
          SMASH.                                                                    Ethernet IP w/TOE+RDMA,
                                                                                    Microsoft Chimney



                                                                                    SCSI,
                                                                                    Fiber Channel,
                                                                                    iSCSI

                                                                                    ATA, SCSI,
                                                                                    SATA, SAS




©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                              IMEX
End to End Internet
                                                             HA, Secure Data Center

                                                             FC SAN IP SAN   NAS   NAS

                                                               IP Storage Network
                                                                   Web
                                                                             App
                                    Internet                       Web              DB
                             Edge              Core                Web
                                                                             App
                                               Optical
                                                                   Web
                                                                                    DB
                                                                   Web
                                                                             App
                                                                   Web

                                                                   Web
                                                                                    DB
                                                                             App
                                                                   Web

                                                              Edge    Applications Data Center
                                                         Directory Security Policy Management

                                                                 Software OS Platform

©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                    IMEX
Market Segments by Applications

                                                            OLTP
                           Transaction
  10 K                     Processing
                                                           eCommerce

                                                                    Data          DSS                   (RAID - 0, 3)
                                 (RAID - 1, 5, 6)
       1K                                                        Warehousing
       (Latency)




                                                                                  Visual DB
IOPs




   100                                                                     Scientific Computing       HPC
                                                                                                      HPC
                                                                                        Imaging
                              TPC
       10                                                                                    Audio             Streaming
                                                                                                               Streaming
                                                              HPC
                                                                                                     Video
          1
                   1                                   5              10                50            100               500
                       ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved

             *IOs per sesond for a required response time ( ms)
                                                                           MB/sec
                                                                                                            IMEX
TPC’s priority - High Availability & Syst Cost

                         z/390
              $10 M     Sysplex
        Avg.                                              S/390
                                                           S/390
        Syst                                   z/390      MVS
                                                           MVS
                                                          IBM
                                                           IBM
        Price
                                                          Propl
                                                           Propl
               $1 M                    Prop.
                                                               Sun-Solaris
                                                                Sun-Solaris
                                                               HP-UX
                                                                HP-UX
                                                       IBM
                                                        IBM    IBM-AIX
                                                                IBM-AIX
            $100 K        Clustered                            NCR-SVR4
                                                                NCR-SVR4       Bull
                                                                                Bull       Dell
                                                                                            Dell
                            UNIX               AS400                           Fujitsu
                                                                                Fujitsu    HP
                                                                                           HP
                                                                               IBM
                                                                                IBM        NEC
                                                                                            NEC
                                                                               Siemens
                                                                                Siemens    Stratus
                                                                                            Stratus
                                                              UNIX
                                   Cluster Win                         Win
              $10K                                                                     Linux
                                      Clustered Linux


                 0.1           1                 10                              100      Downtime
                                                                                          Hrs./Syst/Yr
             99.999%       99.99%              99.9%                           99.0%

                                                                              System Availability
©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                                         IMEX
HPC: Going from Academia to Wall St to Hollywood

                         High Performance                                             Entertainment
                         High Performance Commercial Bioinformatics Decision-Support Entertainment
                                           Commercial BioInformatics Decision
                                                                                     Audio/Video OnDemand
                            Computing
                            Computing     Visualization
                                           Visualization               Support Syst Audio/Video On Demand
                                                                        Systems
Data: IMEX Research & Panasas




                                100+ Teraflops                       Rendering (Texture & Polygons)   Data rate & capacity
                                Throughput =Research All rights Reserved Throughput = 1.2 GB/s
                                 ©2000-2005 IMEX 100 GB/s                                             Throughput : DSL/Cable
                                                                                                              IMEX
                                                                                                        ©2004--05 IMEX Research.com
Blades Servers - Infrastructure
                                                                         Management Modules Remote Mgmt+KVM over IP

                                          Midplane                              Networking: Gbit Ethernet Switches
                                           W/Connectors                                  Storage: IP NAS or FC SAN
                                          To Blades & Back
                                                                                         Switch
                                                                                             Cooling N+1Fans/Cooling Modules
                Processor Blades              Modules

                    (6-24 typically)                                                                 Power: N+1Power Supplies


      Blade
      Control
      Panel

     USB Ports,
    CD/Floppy I/F




                                                                                             ~ GbE Switch supports
                                                                                             Trunking/Port Aggregation
                                                                                             Flow Control
                                                                                Gbit         QoS Packet Prioritization
                                                                     Memory   Ethernet       SNMP/RMON
                                                             Systems             I/F
                                                  Micro-             DDR w                   IGMP/BOOTP/TFTP
                                                             Monitor
                                                Processors            ECC                    ……
                                                             Module
                                                                                    © 2003 Source:   IMEX Research




©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                                                               IMEX
Blades - TCO Savings & ROI
                              3 Year TCO Savings
                                                                           TCO Savings in..
                              Rack vs. Blade Servers
                                                                                           OPEX
                   100%                                                                               Staff/
                                                                                                     Support
                                                                           Maintenance/               25%
                   80%                                                      Downtime
                                                                               54%
                                                                                                      Facilities/
  % Contribution




                   60%                                                                                 Power
                                    67%           OPEX                                                  21%

                   40%
                                                                    46%                   CAPEX
                                                                                                  Networking
                                                                                                     19%
                   20%                                                        Servers
                                    33%                                        46%                       Storage
                                                CAPEX               25%                               Infrastructure
                                                                                                           13%
                    0%
                                1                                                                       SW
                          Rack Servers                     Blade2Servers                           Infrastructure
                                                                                                        22%
                     ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
Data: IMEX Research 2004                                                                              IMEX
Management – Blade Servers

                                                     Ultra-dense HW
                                                     • Density

                        20 %
                                                     • Power Consumption
                                               20%   • Cable Management




                                                     Management
                                                     • Platforms integration:
                                                             Hardware
                                                             Software

                                               80%
                                                             Network
                                                             Management
                                                     • Scalability
                        80 %




                                                     • Security
                                                     • Manageability
                                                     • Lowest TCO




©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                IMEX
Blade Server Management Software


                                                                           Automation

                                                Provisioning               Automatically Maintains
                                                                           Application Service
                                                                           Level Objectives


Virtualization                                  Provisions the Resources
                                                Required to Deliver a
                                                Business Service

Allocates, Monitors,
and Meters the Usage
of Pooled Resources




 ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                              IMEX
Blade Server Management Software



                                                               Enterprise Mgmt SW
                                                           (HPOV,IBM Tivoli, BMC Patrol,Sun MC..)



                                               Rack
                                                                      Rack Mgmt

                                               Chassis
                                                                   Chassis Mgmt
                                               Backplane
                                                                         Blade
                                                                         Mgmt
                                                 Blades




©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                              IMEX
Blades Management Architecture

                                                                         Chassis


                                                        Shared Modules
                                                                                          MC

                                                      Mgmt Srvr                            Mgmt Bus
                                         IP Bus



                                  MC                     MC               MC               MC                  MC              MC
                                   Chassis Mgmt Bl.


                                                         Compute Blade




                                                                                                               Compute Blade

                                                                                                                               Compute Blade
                                                                          Network Blade


                                                                                               Storage Blade




©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                                                                               IMEX
State of Interconnect Fabrics

     Latency/hop

       1 ms                           EHERNET - LAN/SAN/MAN/WAN
                          FE                          GbE              IB - CLUSTER
                                               ATM                IBM/SP               MPP
     100 us
                                               Servernet              Dolphin         SMP/NUMA
                                                                              T3E
                                                                      Myrinet    SGI
                                                   GbE                  Quadrics     Mellanox
                                                   w/TOE
       10 us                                                                      FJ/Synfinity
                                                                                         Synfinity-1
                                                   GbE                        10GbE
                                                   w/RDMA             Scali   w/RDMA



        1us
                    100 Mb/sec                              1Gb/sec                    10 Gb/sec
                                                     Bandwidth/link

©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                                       IMEX
Industry Standard Servers Market (x86 based)

                   12,000

                              Blades
                   10,000     Rackmounts
                              Pedestals
                    8,000
       Units (K)




                    6,000



                    4,000



                    2,000



                       0
                            2003        2004   2005   2006   2007   2008

©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                           IMEX
Blade Servers Market Opportunity

                                WW Blade Servers
                                Market Opportunity
                                       (cum 2004-2008)
               Factory Rev $B



                                Revenues ~ $24 Billion
                                Units ~ 9 Million




                                2003    2004     2005    2006   2007   2008

©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved             Data: IMEX Research 2005
                                                                                    IMEX
iSCSI on roadmap of storage vendors

                                    US Market - SBC & xTCA Revenues


                       800
                       700
      US Revenues $M




                       600                                          cPCI SBC
                             cPCI SBC
                       500   w Blades Impact
                       400
                       300
                       200
                                                                       xTCA Blades
                       100
                        0
                             1999


                                      2000


                                               2001


                                                      2002


                                                             2003


                                                                       2004


                                                                               2005


                                                                                      2006


                                                                                             2007
©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                             IMEX
IP Telecom Server Blades

                                     ATCA Server Blades Forecast

                        7,000
                                         Signaling
                        6,000
                                         Core
                                         Edge
                        5,000
                                         Access

                        4,000


                        3,000


                        2,000


                        1,000


                           -
                                      2004        2005   2006   2007   2008
©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                              IMEX
Blade Servers: Vendor Positioning Index
(As of Jan.2005 - See IMEX Blade Servers Report 2005 for new data & indexing metrics)
          Strategy (Potential)




                                                                                 IBM


                                    Fujitsu Siemens




                                 NEC                         Intel          HP
                                                  Dell




                                                                                       © 2003-05 IMEX Research
                                    Nexcom

                                  Tatung                              Egenera
                                           Sun

                                                         Verari
                                    Linux Networx
                                                 Appro            Rackable Sys
  ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved

                                                  Delivery (Success)                                             IMEX
Blade Servers – Low Cost Suppliesr?
                                    Mitac                Tatung




Hitachi

Tatungt

3Up Syst
          ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                         IMEX
Storage Market Requirements

                                            FC SAN,                                           Existing Deployed
                                     IP SAN (Block)                                           Storage Networks
                                     (FCP & FICON)                                            (Block and File)
                                                                 Enterprise




                                                                              Co lti-P ace
                                                                                              Scalability




                                                                               Mu nter
                                                                   Data




                                                                                nv rot
                                                                                &I
                                                                  Center




                                                                                  erg oc
FUNCTIONS




                            IP SAN
            COST




                                                                                      en ol
                                                                                       f
                   (Block or File)                                                            “SAN in a Can”




                                                                                         ce
                                                             Departmental Small
                           (iSCSI)                                                            (Block & File)
                                                              Medium Business
                                                                                              Simplified Use and
                                                                  (SMB/SME)
                           NAS                                                                Install
                            File                                 Workgroup
                        (NFS &                                                                 Low Cost
                          CIFS)                                                                Min. Features
                                                                                               Easy to Use
                                                            Desktop SOHO and Mobile
                                                                                               Self-Installable


                      Performance and capacity alone are no longer distinguishers
                          attributes between enterprise and distributed storage


             ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                                        IMEX
iSCSI on roadmap of storage vendors

              SAN                    iSCSI                NAS
             (Fibre
COST

                                        (IP)                  (IP)
            Channel)
            •iSCSI delivers low-cost Networked Storage
              –Higher availability,Increased usage
                                                                       High End
              –Centralized management,Storage functionality
                                                                       FC & iSCSI


                                           Mid-Tier
                                          FC & iSCSI
                                                      Mid-Tier
                                                     NAS & iSCSI



       Entry
  FC & iSCSI
                                                                     SERVICE LEVEL

©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                    IMEX
Enterprise Market is now cost conscious

                 100%

                  90%
                                                                      SATA
                  80%

                  70%

                  60%
                                                                 SAS
                  50%

                  40%

                  30%
                                                                 FC
                  20%

                  10%                     P_SCSI
                    0%
                      2003              2004       2005   2006         2007   2008


©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                     IMEX
The iSCSI SAN

  Client
Workstations
                                                          Client requests data from App Server
      LAN
                                                    Ethernet Header   IP      TCP     DATA       CRC
   Ethernet
   Switches


Application &
 DB Servers
 (iSCSI Initiator)                                      iSCSI-equipped App Server (“initiator”)
                                                     requests data from an iSCSI storage (“target”)
     SAN                                            Ethernet                                     CRC
                                                             IP TCP      iSCSI SCSI   DATA
     GigE                                           Header
   Switches

Storage Arrays
 (iSCSI Target)
                                                    To Other LANs,
                                                    Servers or IP SANs




     ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                                       IMEX
Ethernet - TCP + iSCSI Offload Engines

    Typical 1GbE NIC
                                                  File System                 File System




                                                                                                Host
        File System




                                                                                                SW
                                               Volume Manager               Volume Manager
    Volume Manager
                                               SCSI Device Driver          SCSI Device Driver
  SCSI Device Driver
              iSCSI                                  iSCSI                       iSCSI




                                                                                                Adapter
               TCP                                    TCP                         TCP

                 IP                                    IP                          IP

           Ethernet                                Ethernet                    Ethernet




                                                                Host CPU

                                                              HBA Firmware

                                                              HBA Hardware
©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                             IMEX
Future: IP Storage Management on a chip

                      Host Services Integration                                             Storage
                                                                                            Provisioning
File system monitoring                   Storage provisioning      Win, LINUX, Solaris      Layer


                        IP SAN Management
    Management                 Management of        MultiPath IO Supp        Security
                                                                                            IP SAN
     Console                    iSCSI HBAs            and Failover      (iSNS, CHAP, SRP)   Management
                                                                                            Layer
       Virtualization                   Mirroring      Snapshot          Fail-Over

                                 iSCSI Target Management                                    Appliance
             LVM, Error Handling, SCSI Daemon, API Interoperability
                                                                                            Service
                                                                                            Layer
                 HW Acceleration: TOE, iSCSI Offload, IPsec




©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                              IMEX
Go-to-market: Channels of Distribution
                                                                                        Industry Structure

                                         Manufacturers                                                 Channels of Distribution          Vertical Markets
                                                                                                                                                                    Medical
Disk & Tape Drives & Host Bus Adapters




                                                                                                                                 F1000     Telecom




                                                                                                                                                                    Govt.
                                                                          HA + Ntwk + System Mgmt SW
                                                                                                                                   &
                                                      Servers                                            OEM
   Components - Chips & Boards ...




                                           RAID                                                                                  Large                 ISPs




                                                                                                                                           Insurance
                                         Contllrs    Clusters




                                                                                                                                                          Finance



                                                                                                                                                                            Manufacturing
                                                                                                              Lg. Sys
                                          VIA IPC                                                            Integrator
                                                        SANs
                                                                                                                     VARS        Med

                                           Hubs
                                                        LANs
                                           NICs                                                                   Sml SI/VAR
                                                       WANs
                                         Switches
                                                                                                          Distributor     VADS
                                                  Internet                                                                       Sml
                                         Routers Backbone

                                 ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                                                                                          IMEX
Major Players in Infrastructure Convergence


Networks                                                  Storage




                                                Servers
 ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                            IMEX
Potential for Blades - Everywhere
                     xSP          IntrDet                                Enterprise
                            VPN

         IntrDet
                           WebServices         App.Servers
                                                             DBServers
                                                                                         IntrDet




Supplier/Partner
                                              ISP                                                  IntrDet




                         ISP       Internet                      ISP
                                              Core
                        Edge                  Optical
                                            Networking
                                                                ISP
                                              Access
                               ISP
                                              ISP
 Remote Office
                                                                                                   IntrDet




                                                                                      IntrDet


                                     Cable Modem
                                        56K    DSL
                                            MP3 VOD
 Wireless Cellular Research All rights Reserved
                                 Home Networks
       ©2000-2005 IMEX
                                                                                                       IMEX
Holy Grail - Future Intelligent IP Infrastructure

         Present Data Center Infrastructue                           Future Infrastructue



   Clients


           LAN                                      Ntwk
                                                    Mgmt WS


Application &                                                              Intelligent
 DB Servers                                                                  Uniform
                                                                            IP-based
                                                                         Infrastructure

                                                              Mgmt
           SAN                                     Storage     WS
                                                   Mgmt WS



    Storage
  Sub Systems




    ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                            IMEX
Emerging IP Based Infrastructure



                                 Servers                     Storage

                                                     IP
            Networks                           Infrastructure    Telecom

                                                Virtualization
                                                Provisioning
                                                 Automation




©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                           IMEX
Server Architectures: Competitive Technologies
              Price/Performance                                                                       Performance: SMP vs. Clustering
         Serial vs.Parallel Computing
                                                                                                                                        Multinode
                                                                                                                                        Clusters




                                                                                       Performance - tpc
                         SMP
                                                                                                                                             w/8 way
                                      MPP
                                                                                                                                             w/4 way
           Serial
Price




                                                                                                                                        16             32
            MF                                                                                                                   8
                                                                                                                                       N-way SMP
                                                                                                                            6
                                                                                                                        4


                                                                                                                    2


                                       Clustering                                                          i




                          Performance                                                                                           Number of Processors

                                                 Scalable Perf. vs. Availability
                                                  Scalable Performance




                                                                          MPP
                                                                                  Clustering

                                                                            SMP                                FT

                                                                         UniP
        ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                                      Availability
                                                                                                                                               IMEX
3 Tier Computing Architecture



                                                      Web       App
                                                                                                  SAN
                                                      Web                  DB




                                                                                Storage Network
                                                                                Storage Network
                                                      Web       App
       Internet                                                                                   SAN
                                                      Web
 Edge       Core                                                           DB
            Optical
                                                      Web
                                                                App
                                                                                                  NAS
                                                      Web
                                Caching, Proxy, FW
                                 Security, IDS, DNS   Web                  DB
                                 Load Balancing …               App
                                      Servers         Web                                         NAS

                                                Tier-1        Tier-2         Tier-3
                                           Edge Computing   Applications   Data Center



©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                             IMEX
WW IT Spending Levels Off …

                           Worldwide IT` Spending & Growth ($B)
     $B                                                                                     Average %
   1,400                                                                                          12
                                                                    IT Spending     IT Growth     10
   1,200
                                                                                                  8
   1,000
                                                                                                  6
     800                                                                                          4

     600                                                                                          2
                                                                                                  0
     400
                                                                                                  -2
     200
                                                                                                  -4
        0                                                                                         -6
               1999        2000        2001    2002   2003   2004    2005    2006   2007   2008




©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                           IMEX
WW Server Management Costs Rise

              WW Server Spending : Acquisition vs. Management
                                                                 Installed Base
Spending
                                                                    (M Units)
   ($B)
 200                                                                       35
 180
                                                                           30
 160
 140                                                                       25
 120                                                                       20
 100
  80                                                                       15
  60                                                                       10
  40
                                                                           5
  20
   0                                                                       0
       1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008




         New Server spending                   cost of m gm t. & adm in.   installed Base Server (M unit)




©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                               IMEX
Admin Cost % of Total Cost Increasing

TCO - Server Connections to FC SANs
       $40

       $35       $34K

       $30

       $25
                                               Acq. Cost
 $K




       $20

       $15       $13K
                                        Admin. Cost
       $10
                                                                          $6.5K
           $5
                                                                         $6K
      $-
                1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008




©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                   IMEX
HA End to End Internet                                           with Security Products

                     xSP          IntrDet                                Enterprise
                            VPN

         IntrDet
                           WebServices         App.Servers
                                                             DBServers
                                                                                           IntrDet




Supplier/Partner
                                              ISP                                                    IntrDet




                         ISP       Internet                      ISP
                                              Core
                        Edge                  Optical
                                            Networking
                                                                ISP
                                              Access
                               ISP
                                              ISP
 Remote Office
                                                                                                     IntrDet




                                                                                        IntrDet


                                     Cable Modem
                                        56K    DSL
                                            MP3 VOD
 Wireless Cellular Research All rights Reserved
                                 Home Networks
       ©2000-2005 IMEX
                                                                                                         IMEX
Corporate Data Usage




                                               Nearline
                                               Storage    IMEX
©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
Next Generation
Servers


Anil Vasudeva
Principal Analyst & President
anil@imexresearch.com
408-268-0800
                                                 IMEX
                                                 RESEARCH.COM
  ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                       IMEX
Servers - Competitive Price/Performance

                                 Competitive Analysis: tpmC vs. $/tpmC
              150,000
                                                                        Compaq     Dell      Fujitsu
                                                                        HP         IBM       Sun


                                      Average
              100,000
       tpmC




               50,000




                   0
                   $-               $50         $100   $150            $200      $250     $300         $350

                                                              $/tpmC



©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                             IMEX
Market Directions

     Market bifurcation in the near term (2005-2006)
     – Business Computer Market continue to migrate to Windows Servers
       2003 from UNIX & Mainframes (HE Computers >$250K ASP)
     – High Performance Computing (15% of market now to grow rapidly)
        initially the domain of Linux
     HPC will embrace Business Computing (2006-08)
     – Over time some applications such as Wall Street Financial
       OLAP/DSS, Health/Bioinformatics will migrate towards Business
       Computing
     Linux will take market share from Unix vs. Windows
      because of the similarities between between Linux & UNIX
      before it has any discernible impact on Windows 2003





     ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                        IMEX
Targeted Price/Performance

Measure                                           tpmC      Price $ $/tpmC
Best 5 ($/tpmC)                                208,779     977,149       5
All Itanium                                    188,816   1,053,964       6
All Average                                     60,341 $ 1,285,309 $   100
Sun Solaris                                     18,821   1,748,527     112
All IBM AIX                                     61,180   1,613,784     179
All Non Intel CPU                               44,850   1,798,298     186




©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                      IMEX
Positioning – HE Enterprise Servers
                                               Enterprise Servers
 Delivery Strategy                 Index Product                 IA-32/x ItaniuRISC Others
         3.4             2.5           8.5 HP NonStop                              x
         2.2             4.3           9.5 Bull Escala                       x
         4.3             2.2           9.5 FSC BS2000            x           x
         2.8             3.4           9.5 Bull GCOS                               x
         5.2             3.2         16.6 Unisys Clearpath       x                 x
         6.1             3.3         20.1 NCR                    x
         5.4             5.2         28.1 IBM iSeries                        x
         7.4             5.3         39.2 SunFire                            x
         5.2             7.6         39.5 Unisys Orion ES7000    x     x
         8.1             5.8         47.0 IBM zSeries                              x
         6.0             8.5         51.0 Fujitsu Prim epow er               x
         7.8             7.6         59.3 HP9K/Integrity               x     x
         9.1             6.9         62.8 IBM pSeries                        x


©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                  IMEX
Positioning - Midrange Servers
                                               Midrange Servers
         Delivery Strategy             Index Product                 IA-32/x ItaniuRISC Others
                1.7           2.8         4.8 Bull Escala                        x
                1.5           7.0        10.5 Egenera BladeFram e    x
                1.5           8.2        12.3 Bull NovaScale               x
                2.7           4.8        13.0 Bull Express           x
                4.6           3.1        14.3 IBM iSeries                        x
                2.2           7.4        16.3 Stratus ftServer       x
                5.3           4.1        21.7 IBM xSeries            x
                3.6           6.3        22.7 NEC Express            x     x
                4.7           6.0        28.2 Fujitsu Prim ergy      x     x
                4.0           8.3        33.2 Fujitsu Prim epow er               x
                5.9           6.2        36.6 Sunfire                            x
                6.8           5.5        37.4 IBM pSeries                        x
                4.6           8.2        37.7 Unisys Aries ES7000    x     x
                5.7           7.9        45.0 HP9K/Integrity               x     x
                8.7           6.0        52.2 Dell Pow erEdge        x     x
                8.2           7.2        59.0 HP ProLiant            x
                7.7           7.9        60.8 IBM xSeries            x     x
©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                            IMEX
$-
                                                              $10,000
                                                                        $20,000
                                                                                                          $30,000
                                                                                                                                            $40,000
                                                                                                                                                      $50,000
                                                                                                                                                                $60,000




                                                      IBM x366 4w Cranford




                                                                                  $19,770
                                                      3.66/1M Single Core




  ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                  IBM x365 4w Gallatin
                                                  3.0/4M Single Core
                                                                                                                    $29,980

                                                  Dell PE6850 4w Potomac
                                                                                                      $26,808

                                                  3.33/8M Single Core


                                                  HP DL580 G3 4w Potomac
                                                                                                                              $32,607




                                                  3.33/8M Single Core


                                                  HP DL585 4w Opteron
                                                  2.6GHz/1M Single core
                                                                                            $24,816
                                                                                                                                                                               ((4 socket - Single/Dual Core Configs)




                                                  HP DL585 4w Opteron
                                                  2.2GHz/2M Dual core
                                                                                                                          $31,416




                                                  Sun Fire V40z 4w Opteron
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Street Pricing - 4way / 8way Systems




                                                  2.2GHz/2M Dual core
                                                                                                                                        $37,244




                                                  HP rx4640 4w Itanium2
                                                  1.6/9M Single Core
                                                                                                                                                                          $61,820
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Dual Core leveraging 4way/8way Servers




IMEX
Niche Opportunities

Niche Market Opportunity Gaps

• Address OLTP Market Gap - Performance DB market
• Large Memory Needed to Address Performance DB &
  Business Intelligence Markets
• Leverage In-Memory DB (Oracle’s acquisition of Times Ten)
• Integrated 3-Tier Solution vs. Standalone SMPs
• Mix & Match IA-32 & IA-64
   - Investment Protection
   - Address Value & Performance Markets Concurrently
• Geo Load Balancer: BC & DR Markets Covered




 ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                              IMEX
Server Targets
                                            CUSTOMER
                                            Total Solutions
                                               Support




                                 TECHNOLOGY             PRICE
                                   DUAL/MULTI           $/tpmC
                                     CORE
                                    32/64-BIT                 INVESTMENT
                             HIGH                             PROTECTION
                          AVAILABILITY          Servers     32/64b Mix/Match
                                                            + Migration Tools
                               99.999%

                                                              OPEX
                                                              Power
                                     PERFORMANCE            Management
                                         In Memory DB
                                           Middleware




                                           Servers/Storage/Networking
                                               Products & Support
©2000-2005   IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                IMEX
Major markets in Cluster Volume Servers

   100.0%
                                                           Volume Servers (Bladed )
                                                           <$25K ASP
     80.0%


     60.0%                                            Volume Servers (Non-Bladed)
                                                      ASP <$25K

     40.0%
                            Midrange
                            ASP $25-250K
     20.0%


      0.0%
                  High End ASP >$250K
          2004                   2005          2006          2007        2008         2009



©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                      IMEX
IT Infrastructure, Sys.Mgmt & Applications




                                                                          Broad
                                                          CAD/




                                                                          Band
                         ERP




                                                 CRM
                                      SCM




                                                          CAM


                                                                  HPC




                                                                                   EAI
                                    Data                              High               Ntwk
             OS                                        Security
                                   Mgmt                             Availability         Mgmt
©2000-2005   IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                                IMEX
IT Spending by Vertical Markets

                               WW IT Spending by Vertical Industry

                                               Transportation
                                                    6%

                                                     Mfg-Com puter
                             Energy
                                                        Related      Education
                               6%
                                                          6%             2%
            Manufacturing                                            Telecom
                                                         Health
                10%                                                      1%
                                                          6%          Utilities
                                                                         2%     Defence
                Financial                                                          1%
                   11%                                                          Services
                                                          14%
                                                                     Media         2%
                                                                       2%

               Governm ent                                           Metals/Mining
                  12%                                  other              1%
                                                        9%
                                                                     Construction
                                  Retail Wholesale
                                                                         1%
                                         18%
                                                                     Misc
                                                                      1%




©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                           IMEX
Server Spending in Vertical Markets

                                                     WW Spending on Servers
    Retail Wholesale
         Financials
      Manufacturing
             Energy
      Transportation
Mid-Computer Related
              Health
            Telecom
             utilities
            Defense
           Services
             Media
        Government
          Education
       Metals/Mining
        Construction                                                              OLTP   DSS    HPC   Streaming
               Misc
          Hospitality

                         0     1000        2000       3000   4000   5000   6000     7000       8000   9000    10000



      ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                                      IMEX
Go-to-Market Startegies

Servers Market
Size & Growth ‘04-’05                               $1B+               Server Budget > $1.5 M
                                                10,229 Firms           Direct Sales to Large SI/EU
            $ 23.2 B                             Large                 Custom Solutions

               2.8 %                           Enterprise

                                               $100 M to $1B
                                                                                 Server Budget $50 K-$1.5 M
                                      Mid-Size Enterprise                        VAD/VAR facilitated by ITG
   $ 17.4 B                                     67,873 Firms     SI/             Express Solutions & Packages
      9.5 %
                                               $25M to $100 M
                                        Medium Business
                                               185,794 Firms
                                                                                       Server Budget $5K - $50K
$ 7.8 B                                         $1M to $25 M
                                                                                       Retail, Volume Resell, VARS
                                                                                       Standard SMB Products
 12.8 %                                   Small Business
                                               3,577,862 Firms



©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                                     IMEX
Technology Comparison

                                    SATA                     SAS              Fibre Channel

                                 Half-duplex            Full-duplex with         Full Duplex
                                                       Link Aggregation

Performance                1.5 Gb/s Introduction      3.0Gb/s Introduction         2.0Gb/s
                              3.0Gb/s in 2004/5        6.0Gb/s in 2006/7       4Gb/s in 2004/5
                            > 8m external cable       > 8m external cable     15m external cable


Connectivity                    One device               >128 devices            127 devices
                        (multiple devices with port       (16,384 max)
                                 multiplier)

                               No peer-to-peer            Peer-to-peer           Peer-to-peer

                              Single-port HDDs          Dual-port HDDs         Dual-port HDDs

 Availability                    Single-host             Multi-initiator        Multi-initiator


    Driver                 Software transparent       Software transparent   Software transparent

    Model                     with Parallel ATA        with Parallel SCSI     with Parallel SCSI


©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                       IMEX
Market Segments by Applications
                                              OLTP
               Transaction
   10 K        Processing
                                              eCommerce

                                                      Data            DSS                   (RAID - 0, 3)
                      (RAID - 1, 5, 6)
    1K                                             Warehousing
 IOPs                                                                 Visual DB
(Latency)

   100                                                         Scientific Computing
                                                                                          NIC
                                                                            Imaging
                   TP
    10                                                                           Audio            Streaming
                                                 HPC
                                                                                         Video
     1
          1                               5               10                50            100               500
     *IOs per sesond for a required response time ( ms)        MB/sec
          ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                                     IMEX
WW Server EU Revenues by OS

                           $70


                           $60
                                                                                  Other
                           $50                                                    OS390
              EU Rev. $B




                                                                                  OS400
                                                              UNIX
                           $40                                                    UNIX
                                                                                  Window s
                           $30                                                    Linux
                                                                                  Netw are
                           $20
                                                         Windows

                            $10
                                                                Linux
                           $-
                                2001   2002    2003   2004   2005   2006   2007

©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                             IMEX
WW High Availability Server Market

                                   WW HA Servers Market
                           $40

                           $35
                                                          Other
                           $30                       zSeries
               EU Rev $B




                           $25                 i-Series

                           $20
                                                                UNIX
                           $15

                           $10

                           $5                                 Window
                           $0                                                 Linux
                            2001       2002    2003   2004   2005   2006   2007

©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                      IMEX
Open System Shipments dominate
                                          Server OS Shipments - New Licenses

                                        10000

                                        9000

                                        8000

                                        7000                                  Linux
                                                                              (Paid)
                                        6000
                         Units (000s)




                                        5000

                                        4000                                  Win 2003
                                                        W2K
                                        3000           Server
                                                NT
                                        2000

                                        1000           UNIX Total

                                                                    NetWare
                                           0
                                               MF
                                           2000 2001     2002   2003   2004    2005    2006
©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                              IMEX
Interconnect Price/Performance Hierarchy

          High MB/s,
          Low Latency,
          Price/Port                              Quadrics


                                                  Myrinet

                                                 InfiniBand

                                      10 GbE w/ RDMA, TOE

                                               10 GbE w/ TOE

                                                  1 GbE
                                                               Market Size
                           Microsoft Chimney Software           2004-07

©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                 IMEX
iSCSI on roadmap of storage vendors

              SAN                    iSCSI                NAS
             (Fibre
COST

                                        (IP)                  (IP)
            Channel)
            •iSCSI delivers low-cost Networked Storage
              –Higher availability,Increased usage
                                                                       High End
              –Centralized management,Storage functionality
                                                                       FC & iSCSI


                                           Mid-Tier
                                          FC & iSCSI
                                                      Mid-Tier
                                                     NAS & iSCSI



       Entry
  FC & iSCSI
                                                                     SERVICE LEVEL

©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                    IMEX
Management – Blade Servers

                                                     Ultra-dense HW
                                                     • Density

                        20 %
                                                     • Power Consumption
                                               20%   • Cable Management




                                                     Management
                                                     • Platforms integration:
                                                             Hardware
                                                             Software

                                               80%
                                                             Network
                                                             Management
                                                     • Scalability
                        80 %




                                                     • Security
                                                     • Manageability
                                                     • Lowest TCO




©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                IMEX
Tiered Storage by Price/Performance

            Desktop PC                                  Servers          Large Enterprise
             Entry NAS                              Midline Storage        SAN & NAS
            Workstations                          Mainstream NAS/SAN




               PC          SAS                        SAS HBA/RAID                 FC RAID
             Chipset       HBA
  Drive
Interface         SATA            SAS                       SAS


Drive
Types                  5400 RPM                                10K RPM
                       7200 RPM                                15K RPM

        SATA Drive                                     SAS Drive                  FC Drive
                                                                                      Source:Maxtor


   ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                     IMEX
Unified Server & Storage Mgmt
                                        Enterprise Management
             HP/OV                 IBM/Tivoli         BMC/Patrol        CA/Unicenter             MS/MOM


                                          Systems Management
             Auto                Inventory         Distributed        Event            Exception
           Discovery               Mgmt               Tools         Notification       Reporting

           Capacity               Security            Matrix         Controls            Tools
          Management              Policies         Integration      Repository          Definition


            Auto            Performance          Workload         Topology         Performance       Provisioning
          Discovery         Management          Management       Management        Management          Manager
        Blades Syst             VM              Cluster Conf     Chargeback        File System         Policy
        Management          Management          Management       Management         Manager           Manager
           Patch             Partition          3rd Party SW     Oracle View        Exchange           Custom
         Automation         Management          Management       Management        Management        Reports Mgr


                         Server                                            Storage

©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                                              IMEX
Unified Mgmt Stack
                                Application Management
                                    Change & Configuration Suite
                                          Identity Manager
                                        Automation Manager
                                       Service Level Manager

                       Infrastructure Management
                                     System Manager
                             Blade System Management Suite
                                Virtual Server Management
                           Server & Storage Unified Management

                                Elements Management
                                          Standards/Interoperability
                             SNMP/SMI-S/WBEM/WMI/SMASH/SOAP/XML
                    Storage / Disk Arrays / Tape Products & Vendors
                HDS, IBM, Cisco, SunBrocade, EMC, McData, NetApp, qLogic,
                               Servers / Blades Products & Vendors
                                   IBM, HP, Sun, Fujitsu, NEC, Unisys, Intel
©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                               IMEX
Storage Mgmt Tools

• Console: Main console for open, heterogeneous SAN Mgmt
• Provisioning Wizard: Wizard to provision Hetero Host to Storage Arrays
• Charge Back Mgmt: Asset based Chargeback Mgmt
• Data Base Monitor: Oracle DB Availability & Performance Views
• EMail Monitor: Exchange Availability & Performance Views
• Enterprise SW Monitor: SAP Elements Availability & Performance Views
• Capacity Mgmt: Filesystem scanning for reclaiming wasted space
• One View: Consolidated reporting of multiple storage/server instances
• Report Template Designer: Custom Mgmt Console & Reports for infrastructure




   ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                   IMEX
Defense System
                                                                                                                         • launch readiness




                                                                                               Health Systems              4

     Time to                                                                                   • Emergency Syst
     Recover                                                                                   • Computer Dispatch
                                                                                               • Patient Monitoring
       from       System
      Failure        Cost
                                                                                               Navigation Syst                4

                                                                                               • Shipping, Satellites.
          -           to
                  eliminate
                                                                                               Reservation Syst                   4

                                                                                               • Air Travel
     (Fail-over    SPOFs                                                                       • Auto Rentals
       Time)
                                                                                               Banking Services                       4

                                                                 Manufacturing             3   • ATM Transactions
                                                                                               • EFT
                                                                 Utility Opns          3
                                                                                               Financial Srvcs            4

                                                                 Telecom 3                     • Securities Trading
                                               Messaging         • NumberPortability           Telecom 3
                                                                 • Customer Srvcs
                                               Systems     2                                   • Call Location
                                               • e-mail          Internet      3

                                               Retailing 2       • eCommerce
                                 Office Sys    • POS
                                 • HR 1
                                 • Shipping


    Availability                      99.0%            99.9%             99.99%                  99.999%                 99.9999%
    Availability Level               HAL- 2            HAL- 3            HAL- 4                   HAL- 5                  HAL- 6
    Downtime/yr.                    ~ 4 days           ~ 8 Hrs           ~ 1 Hr.                 ~ 5 mts.                     30 sec
    Time/Outage                      ~ 4 Hrs       ~ 30 mts.            ~ 5 mts.                  ~ 1 mt.                ~ 10 sec

   Outages/yr.                          24                16                12                         5                              3
©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                                                                          IMEX
Remote
                                                                       Intranet                 Replicated
                                                    Server                                      Cluster
                          Host                      Fault-             Cluster/
Disk                      Connect                   Tolerance          Apps                     Fault-
Fault-                                                                 Fault-Toleran            Tolerance
                          Fault-Tolern              • Shared Storage
Tolerance                                           • Shared                                    • Continuous Replicated
                          • Controller FO             Resources        • Cluster SW             • Remote Copy -
• RAID (Disk              • Hot Spare Disks         • Server FO        • Oracle OPS             • Synchronized
  Fail Over)              • Redundant Power         • AutoRecovery     • Databases                Data Mirroring
• Write Hole                Supplies & Fans         • Transaction        Replication            • Zonal Disaster
• Hot Swap - Disks        • Redundant NICs            Recovery         • Auto Restart Boot        Tolerant
• ECC Memory              • NIC Failover                               • Dedicated Monitoring   • Router Path
• Power Outage            • Hot Swap Cards                               Server                   Redundancy
• SNMP Alerts                                                          •Load Balancing


           Single Server                                 Local Server/Cluster                   Remote Cluster

                                         Single Site                                               Multi-site
                                          Systems Management

     ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                                           IMEX
System Cost vs. High Availability

                         z/390
              $10 M     Sysplex
        Avg.                                              S/390
                                                           S/390
        Syst                                   z/390      MVS
                                                           MVS
                                                          IBM
                                                           IBM
        Price
                                                          Propl
                                                           Propl
               $1 M                    Prop.
                                                               Sun-Solaris
                                                                Sun-Solaris
                                                               HP-UX
                                                                HP-UX
                                                       IBM
                                                        IBM    IBM-AIX
                                                                IBM-AIX
            $100 K        Clustered                            NCR-SVR4
                                                                NCR-SVR4       Bull
                                                                                Bull       Dell
                                                                                            Dell
                            UNIX               AS400                           Fujitsu
                                                                                Fujitsu    HP
                                                                                           HP
                                                                               IBM
                                                                                IBM        NEC
                                                                                            NEC
                                                                               Siemens
                                                                                Siemens    Stratus
                                                                                            Stratus
                                                              UNIX
                                   Cluster Win                         Win
              $10K                                                                     Linux
                                      Clustered Linux


                 0.1           1                 10                              100      Downtime
                                                                                          Hrs./Syst/Yr
             99.999%       99.99%              99.9%                           99.0%

                                                                              System Availability
©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
                                                                                                         IMEX
Next Generation Data Centers
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Next Generation Data Centers

  • 1. Next Generation Data Centers Anil Vasudeva Principal Analyst & President anil@imexresearch.com 408-268-0800 IMEX RESEARCH.COM ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 2. • Markets Drivers/Industry Dynamics Blades – An evolution from PC Servers to Supercomputers Major Applications – Access, HPC, NIC, TP 4 Tiered Computing & Telecom Markets by Environment Incumbents vs. Startups • Market Segments – Mkt.Fcst./Shares/Channels Market Forecast, Migrations, Supply Chain, Channels, Price Erosion • Industry Issues/Technology Hurdles Stds./Midplane, Server Mgmt/DMTF, Fabric Choices Thermals, IP Acceleration • Futures Opportunities for Startups Complexity Reduction, Data Center Mgmt , From Next Gen PCs to Clustered Supercomputers Interested Venture Capital ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 3. Chaos in the Enterprise . . . File transfers AIX to Database extracts MVS FTP between Sun - HP/UX via Platinum to SP2 via MQ Series 4.4 NT 9.9 Network IBM3090-600J IBM RS6000 TM TM AIX 4.1, 4.2, 4.3 HP MVS/ESA Sun DB2/6000 UX 10, 11.0, 11.2 MPE Server/OS IMS / ADABAS Solaris 3.2, 3.4, 3.5 Sybase 11.9, 12 TM TM Oracle 7.5, 8.0 Fujitsu Database IBM AS/400 DS90UX Compaq OS/400 P/M ProLiant 2500,5500 NT 3.5, 4.0 SQL Application CICS Batch CAD/CAM Inventory PeopleSoft Financials Lotus E-commerce Exchange Notes OLTP Storage STK Silos Tape Legato to DLT BU by FDR 8mm Backup Cheyenn Backup Upstream IBM e to 4mm HP ADSM3490 OmniBack Test Disaster D/R plan (MF only) Recovery (1) Scales poorly (2) Difficult to manage (3) Reliability is questionable (4) Management costs out of control ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 4. Market Trends Data Center Automation Targets 20-25% Servers Utilization 80+% 15-30 Servers Servers/Admin 500+ 1TB Storage Terabytes/DBA 100TB Networks 50-100 Ntwk Ports/Admin 500+ System HAL- 3 (99.9%) Availability HAL- 5 (99.999%) ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 5. Server Market Segmentation - Platforms Large SMP Parallel Sysplex Scale Up (Consolidated SMP Servers) Dynamic LPAR Rack Clusters SW Provisioning/VMWare High Availability/ IBM: i890/p690/z990 Hi Perform.Clusters SUN: SunFire 4800,12K -Linux/AIX/Solaris Clusters - HPC Clusters DELL: PowerEdge 6650 ORACLE: 9iRAC/PE6650 Blade Servers High Density Rack Mount -Highly Integrated Dense FF -Rapid Deployment, Flex Architect. -RLX: 300i, 800i, HP: 40b, p -FUJITSU: BX300, DELL:1655 IBM: HS20,40,JS20 Sun:100 s,x Scale Out (Clustered Blade Servers) ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 6. 3 Tier Computing Infrastructure Application End-Users  Uniform and ubiquitous physical Connectivity – “Wire Once” Internet  Any user to any server via the Network Services: Internet Web Servers,  Any server to any server via the LAN Firewalls,  Any sever to any storage via the SAN Load balancers LAN  Dynamic Logical Binding of…  …server network identify Application Services:  …server OS version Application Servers &  …server application assignment Database Servers  …application data volumes SAN  Resulting in  Application Mobility across servers Storage  Data mobility across storage ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 7. NexGen Architecture Ethernet, Network Fabric Wi-Fi. System Fabric Management Quadrics, SNMP, Myrinet, Fabric IETF/ InfiniBand, CIM, Ethernet IP, SMI-S, Ethernet IP w/TOE, SMASH. Ethernet IP w/TOE+RDMA, Microsoft Chimney SCSI, Fiber Channel, iSCSI ATA, SCSI, SATA, SAS ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 8. End to End Internet HA, Secure Data Center FC SAN IP SAN NAS NAS IP Storage Network Web App Internet Web DB Edge Core Web App Optical Web DB Web App Web Web DB App Web Edge Applications Data Center Directory Security Policy Management Software OS Platform ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 9. Market Segments by Applications OLTP Transaction 10 K Processing eCommerce Data DSS (RAID - 0, 3) (RAID - 1, 5, 6) 1K Warehousing (Latency) Visual DB IOPs 100 Scientific Computing HPC HPC Imaging TPC 10 Audio Streaming Streaming HPC Video 1 1 5 10 50 100 500 ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved *IOs per sesond for a required response time ( ms) MB/sec IMEX
  • 10. TPC’s priority - High Availability & Syst Cost z/390 $10 M Sysplex Avg. S/390 S/390 Syst z/390 MVS MVS IBM IBM Price Propl Propl $1 M Prop. Sun-Solaris Sun-Solaris HP-UX HP-UX IBM IBM IBM-AIX IBM-AIX $100 K Clustered NCR-SVR4 NCR-SVR4 Bull Bull Dell Dell UNIX AS400 Fujitsu Fujitsu HP HP IBM IBM NEC NEC Siemens Siemens Stratus Stratus UNIX Cluster Win Win $10K Linux Clustered Linux 0.1 1 10 100 Downtime Hrs./Syst/Yr 99.999% 99.99% 99.9% 99.0% System Availability ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 11. HPC: Going from Academia to Wall St to Hollywood High Performance Entertainment High Performance Commercial Bioinformatics Decision-Support Entertainment Commercial BioInformatics Decision Audio/Video OnDemand Computing Computing Visualization Visualization Support Syst Audio/Video On Demand Systems Data: IMEX Research & Panasas 100+ Teraflops Rendering (Texture & Polygons) Data rate & capacity Throughput =Research All rights Reserved Throughput = 1.2 GB/s ©2000-2005 IMEX 100 GB/s Throughput : DSL/Cable IMEX ©2004--05 IMEX Research.com
  • 12. Blades Servers - Infrastructure Management Modules Remote Mgmt+KVM over IP Midplane Networking: Gbit Ethernet Switches W/Connectors Storage: IP NAS or FC SAN To Blades & Back Switch Cooling N+1Fans/Cooling Modules Processor Blades Modules (6-24 typically) Power: N+1Power Supplies Blade Control Panel USB Ports, CD/Floppy I/F ~ GbE Switch supports Trunking/Port Aggregation Flow Control Gbit QoS Packet Prioritization Memory Ethernet SNMP/RMON Systems I/F Micro- DDR w IGMP/BOOTP/TFTP Monitor Processors ECC …… Module © 2003 Source: IMEX Research ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 13. Blades - TCO Savings & ROI 3 Year TCO Savings TCO Savings in.. Rack vs. Blade Servers OPEX 100% Staff/ Support Maintenance/ 25% 80% Downtime 54% Facilities/ % Contribution 60% Power 67% OPEX 21% 40% 46% CAPEX Networking 19% 20% Servers 33% 46% Storage CAPEX 25% Infrastructure 13% 0% 1 SW Rack Servers Blade2Servers Infrastructure 22% ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved Data: IMEX Research 2004 IMEX
  • 14. Management – Blade Servers Ultra-dense HW • Density 20 % • Power Consumption 20% • Cable Management Management • Platforms integration:  Hardware  Software 80%  Network  Management • Scalability 80 % • Security • Manageability • Lowest TCO ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 15. Blade Server Management Software Automation Provisioning Automatically Maintains Application Service Level Objectives Virtualization Provisions the Resources Required to Deliver a Business Service Allocates, Monitors, and Meters the Usage of Pooled Resources ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 16. Blade Server Management Software Enterprise Mgmt SW (HPOV,IBM Tivoli, BMC Patrol,Sun MC..) Rack Rack Mgmt Chassis Chassis Mgmt Backplane Blade Mgmt Blades ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 17. Blades Management Architecture Chassis Shared Modules MC Mgmt Srvr Mgmt Bus IP Bus MC MC MC MC MC MC Chassis Mgmt Bl. Compute Blade Compute Blade Compute Blade Network Blade Storage Blade ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 18. State of Interconnect Fabrics Latency/hop 1 ms EHERNET - LAN/SAN/MAN/WAN FE GbE IB - CLUSTER ATM IBM/SP MPP 100 us Servernet Dolphin SMP/NUMA T3E Myrinet SGI GbE Quadrics Mellanox w/TOE 10 us FJ/Synfinity Synfinity-1 GbE 10GbE w/RDMA Scali w/RDMA 1us 100 Mb/sec 1Gb/sec 10 Gb/sec Bandwidth/link ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 19. Industry Standard Servers Market (x86 based) 12,000 Blades 10,000 Rackmounts Pedestals 8,000 Units (K) 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 20. Blade Servers Market Opportunity WW Blade Servers Market Opportunity (cum 2004-2008) Factory Rev $B Revenues ~ $24 Billion Units ~ 9 Million 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved Data: IMEX Research 2005 IMEX
  • 21. iSCSI on roadmap of storage vendors US Market - SBC & xTCA Revenues 800 700 US Revenues $M 600 cPCI SBC cPCI SBC 500 w Blades Impact 400 300 200 xTCA Blades 100 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 22. IP Telecom Server Blades ATCA Server Blades Forecast 7,000 Signaling 6,000 Core Edge 5,000 Access 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 - 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 23. Blade Servers: Vendor Positioning Index (As of Jan.2005 - See IMEX Blade Servers Report 2005 for new data & indexing metrics) Strategy (Potential) IBM Fujitsu Siemens NEC Intel HP Dell © 2003-05 IMEX Research Nexcom Tatung Egenera Sun Verari Linux Networx Appro Rackable Sys ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved Delivery (Success) IMEX
  • 24. Blade Servers – Low Cost Suppliesr? Mitac Tatung Hitachi Tatungt 3Up Syst ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 25. Storage Market Requirements FC SAN, Existing Deployed IP SAN (Block) Storage Networks (FCP & FICON) (Block and File) Enterprise Co lti-P ace Scalability Mu nter Data nv rot &I Center erg oc FUNCTIONS IP SAN COST en ol f (Block or File) “SAN in a Can” ce Departmental Small (iSCSI) (Block & File) Medium Business Simplified Use and (SMB/SME) NAS Install File Workgroup (NFS & Low Cost CIFS) Min. Features Easy to Use Desktop SOHO and Mobile Self-Installable Performance and capacity alone are no longer distinguishers attributes between enterprise and distributed storage ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 26. iSCSI on roadmap of storage vendors SAN iSCSI NAS (Fibre COST (IP) (IP) Channel) •iSCSI delivers low-cost Networked Storage –Higher availability,Increased usage High End –Centralized management,Storage functionality FC & iSCSI Mid-Tier FC & iSCSI Mid-Tier NAS & iSCSI Entry FC & iSCSI SERVICE LEVEL ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 27. Enterprise Market is now cost conscious 100% 90% SATA 80% 70% 60% SAS 50% 40% 30% FC 20% 10% P_SCSI 0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 28. The iSCSI SAN Client Workstations Client requests data from App Server LAN Ethernet Header IP TCP DATA CRC Ethernet Switches Application & DB Servers (iSCSI Initiator) iSCSI-equipped App Server (“initiator”) requests data from an iSCSI storage (“target”) SAN Ethernet CRC IP TCP iSCSI SCSI DATA GigE Header Switches Storage Arrays (iSCSI Target) To Other LANs, Servers or IP SANs ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 29. Ethernet - TCP + iSCSI Offload Engines Typical 1GbE NIC File System File System Host File System SW Volume Manager Volume Manager Volume Manager SCSI Device Driver SCSI Device Driver SCSI Device Driver iSCSI iSCSI iSCSI Adapter TCP TCP TCP IP IP IP Ethernet Ethernet Ethernet Host CPU HBA Firmware HBA Hardware ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 30. Future: IP Storage Management on a chip Host Services Integration Storage Provisioning File system monitoring Storage provisioning Win, LINUX, Solaris Layer IP SAN Management Management Management of MultiPath IO Supp Security IP SAN Console iSCSI HBAs and Failover (iSNS, CHAP, SRP) Management Layer Virtualization Mirroring Snapshot Fail-Over iSCSI Target Management Appliance LVM, Error Handling, SCSI Daemon, API Interoperability Service Layer HW Acceleration: TOE, iSCSI Offload, IPsec ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 31. Go-to-market: Channels of Distribution Industry Structure Manufacturers Channels of Distribution Vertical Markets Medical Disk & Tape Drives & Host Bus Adapters F1000 Telecom Govt. HA + Ntwk + System Mgmt SW & Servers OEM Components - Chips & Boards ... RAID Large ISPs Insurance Contllrs Clusters Finance Manufacturing Lg. Sys VIA IPC Integrator SANs VARS Med Hubs LANs NICs Sml SI/VAR WANs Switches Distributor VADS Internet Sml Routers Backbone ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 32. Major Players in Infrastructure Convergence Networks Storage Servers ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 33. Potential for Blades - Everywhere xSP IntrDet Enterprise VPN IntrDet WebServices App.Servers DBServers IntrDet Supplier/Partner ISP IntrDet ISP Internet ISP Core Edge Optical Networking ISP Access ISP ISP Remote Office IntrDet IntrDet Cable Modem 56K DSL MP3 VOD Wireless Cellular Research All rights Reserved Home Networks ©2000-2005 IMEX IMEX
  • 34. Holy Grail - Future Intelligent IP Infrastructure Present Data Center Infrastructue Future Infrastructue Clients LAN Ntwk Mgmt WS Application & Intelligent DB Servers Uniform IP-based Infrastructure Mgmt SAN Storage WS Mgmt WS Storage Sub Systems ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 35. Emerging IP Based Infrastructure Servers Storage IP Networks Infrastructure Telecom Virtualization Provisioning Automation ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 36. Server Architectures: Competitive Technologies Price/Performance Performance: SMP vs. Clustering Serial vs.Parallel Computing Multinode Clusters Performance - tpc SMP w/8 way MPP w/4 way Serial Price 16 32 MF 8 N-way SMP 6 4 2 Clustering i Performance Number of Processors Scalable Perf. vs. Availability Scalable Performance MPP Clustering SMP FT UniP ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved Availability IMEX
  • 37. 3 Tier Computing Architecture Web App SAN Web DB Storage Network Storage Network Web App Internet SAN Web Edge Core DB Optical Web App NAS Web Caching, Proxy, FW Security, IDS, DNS Web DB Load Balancing … App Servers Web NAS Tier-1 Tier-2 Tier-3 Edge Computing Applications Data Center ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 38. WW IT Spending Levels Off … Worldwide IT` Spending & Growth ($B) $B Average % 1,400 12 IT Spending IT Growth 10 1,200 8 1,000 6 800 4 600 2 0 400 -2 200 -4 0 -6 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 39. WW Server Management Costs Rise WW Server Spending : Acquisition vs. Management Installed Base Spending (M Units) ($B) 200 35 180 30 160 140 25 120 20 100 80 15 60 10 40 5 20 0 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 New Server spending cost of m gm t. & adm in. installed Base Server (M unit) ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 40. Admin Cost % of Total Cost Increasing TCO - Server Connections to FC SANs $40 $35 $34K $30 $25 Acq. Cost $K $20 $15 $13K Admin. Cost $10 $6.5K $5 $6K $- 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 41. HA End to End Internet with Security Products xSP IntrDet Enterprise VPN IntrDet WebServices App.Servers DBServers IntrDet Supplier/Partner ISP IntrDet ISP Internet ISP Core Edge Optical Networking ISP Access ISP ISP Remote Office IntrDet IntrDet Cable Modem 56K DSL MP3 VOD Wireless Cellular Research All rights Reserved Home Networks ©2000-2005 IMEX IMEX
  • 42. Corporate Data Usage Nearline Storage IMEX ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
  • 43. Next Generation Servers Anil Vasudeva Principal Analyst & President anil@imexresearch.com 408-268-0800 IMEX RESEARCH.COM ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 44. Servers - Competitive Price/Performance Competitive Analysis: tpmC vs. $/tpmC 150,000 Compaq Dell Fujitsu HP IBM Sun Average 100,000 tpmC 50,000 0 $- $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $/tpmC ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 45. Market Directions  Market bifurcation in the near term (2005-2006)  – Business Computer Market continue to migrate to Windows Servers  2003 from UNIX & Mainframes (HE Computers >$250K ASP)  – High Performance Computing (15% of market now to grow rapidly)  initially the domain of Linux  HPC will embrace Business Computing (2006-08)  – Over time some applications such as Wall Street Financial  OLAP/DSS, Health/Bioinformatics will migrate towards Business  Computing  Linux will take market share from Unix vs. Windows  because of the similarities between between Linux & UNIX  before it has any discernible impact on Windows 2003  ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 46. Targeted Price/Performance Measure tpmC Price $ $/tpmC Best 5 ($/tpmC) 208,779 977,149 5 All Itanium 188,816 1,053,964 6 All Average 60,341 $ 1,285,309 $ 100 Sun Solaris 18,821 1,748,527 112 All IBM AIX 61,180 1,613,784 179 All Non Intel CPU 44,850 1,798,298 186 ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 47. Positioning – HE Enterprise Servers Enterprise Servers Delivery Strategy Index Product IA-32/x ItaniuRISC Others 3.4 2.5 8.5 HP NonStop x 2.2 4.3 9.5 Bull Escala x 4.3 2.2 9.5 FSC BS2000 x x 2.8 3.4 9.5 Bull GCOS x 5.2 3.2 16.6 Unisys Clearpath x x 6.1 3.3 20.1 NCR x 5.4 5.2 28.1 IBM iSeries x 7.4 5.3 39.2 SunFire x 5.2 7.6 39.5 Unisys Orion ES7000 x x 8.1 5.8 47.0 IBM zSeries x 6.0 8.5 51.0 Fujitsu Prim epow er x 7.8 7.6 59.3 HP9K/Integrity x x 9.1 6.9 62.8 IBM pSeries x ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 48. Positioning - Midrange Servers Midrange Servers Delivery Strategy Index Product IA-32/x ItaniuRISC Others 1.7 2.8 4.8 Bull Escala x 1.5 7.0 10.5 Egenera BladeFram e x 1.5 8.2 12.3 Bull NovaScale x 2.7 4.8 13.0 Bull Express x 4.6 3.1 14.3 IBM iSeries x 2.2 7.4 16.3 Stratus ftServer x 5.3 4.1 21.7 IBM xSeries x 3.6 6.3 22.7 NEC Express x x 4.7 6.0 28.2 Fujitsu Prim ergy x x 4.0 8.3 33.2 Fujitsu Prim epow er x 5.9 6.2 36.6 Sunfire x 6.8 5.5 37.4 IBM pSeries x 4.6 8.2 37.7 Unisys Aries ES7000 x x 5.7 7.9 45.0 HP9K/Integrity x x 8.7 6.0 52.2 Dell Pow erEdge x x 8.2 7.2 59.0 HP ProLiant x 7.7 7.9 60.8 IBM xSeries x x ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 49. $- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 IBM x366 4w Cranford $19,770 3.66/1M Single Core ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IBM x365 4w Gallatin 3.0/4M Single Core $29,980 Dell PE6850 4w Potomac $26,808 3.33/8M Single Core HP DL580 G3 4w Potomac $32,607 3.33/8M Single Core HP DL585 4w Opteron 2.6GHz/1M Single core $24,816 ((4 socket - Single/Dual Core Configs) HP DL585 4w Opteron 2.2GHz/2M Dual core $31,416 Sun Fire V40z 4w Opteron Street Pricing - 4way / 8way Systems 2.2GHz/2M Dual core $37,244 HP rx4640 4w Itanium2 1.6/9M Single Core $61,820 Dual Core leveraging 4way/8way Servers IMEX
  • 50. Niche Opportunities Niche Market Opportunity Gaps • Address OLTP Market Gap - Performance DB market • Large Memory Needed to Address Performance DB & Business Intelligence Markets • Leverage In-Memory DB (Oracle’s acquisition of Times Ten) • Integrated 3-Tier Solution vs. Standalone SMPs • Mix & Match IA-32 & IA-64 - Investment Protection - Address Value & Performance Markets Concurrently • Geo Load Balancer: BC & DR Markets Covered ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 51. Server Targets CUSTOMER Total Solutions Support TECHNOLOGY PRICE DUAL/MULTI $/tpmC CORE 32/64-BIT INVESTMENT HIGH PROTECTION AVAILABILITY Servers 32/64b Mix/Match + Migration Tools 99.999% OPEX Power PERFORMANCE Management In Memory DB Middleware Servers/Storage/Networking Products & Support ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 52. Major markets in Cluster Volume Servers 100.0% Volume Servers (Bladed ) <$25K ASP 80.0% 60.0% Volume Servers (Non-Bladed) ASP <$25K 40.0% Midrange ASP $25-250K 20.0% 0.0% High End ASP >$250K 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 53. IT Infrastructure, Sys.Mgmt & Applications Broad CAD/ Band ERP CRM SCM CAM HPC EAI Data High Ntwk OS Security Mgmt Availability Mgmt ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 54. IT Spending by Vertical Markets WW IT Spending by Vertical Industry Transportation 6% Mfg-Com puter Energy Related Education 6% 6% 2% Manufacturing Telecom Health 10% 1% 6% Utilities 2% Defence Financial 1% 11% Services 14% Media 2% 2% Governm ent Metals/Mining 12% other 1% 9% Construction Retail Wholesale 1% 18% Misc 1% ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 55. Server Spending in Vertical Markets WW Spending on Servers Retail Wholesale Financials Manufacturing Energy Transportation Mid-Computer Related Health Telecom utilities Defense Services Media Government Education Metals/Mining Construction OLTP DSS HPC Streaming Misc Hospitality 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 56. Go-to-Market Startegies Servers Market Size & Growth ‘04-’05 $1B+ Server Budget > $1.5 M 10,229 Firms Direct Sales to Large SI/EU $ 23.2 B Large Custom Solutions 2.8 % Enterprise $100 M to $1B Server Budget $50 K-$1.5 M Mid-Size Enterprise VAD/VAR facilitated by ITG $ 17.4 B 67,873 Firms SI/ Express Solutions & Packages 9.5 % $25M to $100 M Medium Business 185,794 Firms Server Budget $5K - $50K $ 7.8 B $1M to $25 M Retail, Volume Resell, VARS Standard SMB Products 12.8 % Small Business 3,577,862 Firms ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 57. Technology Comparison SATA SAS Fibre Channel Half-duplex Full-duplex with Full Duplex Link Aggregation Performance 1.5 Gb/s Introduction 3.0Gb/s Introduction 2.0Gb/s 3.0Gb/s in 2004/5 6.0Gb/s in 2006/7 4Gb/s in 2004/5 > 8m external cable > 8m external cable 15m external cable Connectivity One device >128 devices 127 devices (multiple devices with port (16,384 max) multiplier) No peer-to-peer Peer-to-peer Peer-to-peer Single-port HDDs Dual-port HDDs Dual-port HDDs Availability Single-host Multi-initiator Multi-initiator Driver Software transparent Software transparent Software transparent Model with Parallel ATA with Parallel SCSI with Parallel SCSI ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 58. Market Segments by Applications OLTP Transaction 10 K Processing eCommerce Data DSS (RAID - 0, 3) (RAID - 1, 5, 6) 1K Warehousing IOPs Visual DB (Latency) 100 Scientific Computing NIC Imaging TP 10 Audio Streaming HPC Video 1 1 5 10 50 100 500 *IOs per sesond for a required response time ( ms) MB/sec ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 59. WW Server EU Revenues by OS $70 $60 Other $50 OS390 EU Rev. $B OS400 UNIX $40 UNIX Window s $30 Linux Netw are $20 Windows $10 Linux $- 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 60. WW High Availability Server Market WW HA Servers Market $40 $35 Other $30 zSeries EU Rev $B $25 i-Series $20 UNIX $15 $10 $5 Window $0 Linux 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 61. Open System Shipments dominate Server OS Shipments - New Licenses 10000 9000 8000 7000 Linux (Paid) 6000 Units (000s) 5000 4000 Win 2003 W2K 3000 Server NT 2000 1000 UNIX Total NetWare 0 MF 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 62. Interconnect Price/Performance Hierarchy High MB/s, Low Latency, Price/Port Quadrics Myrinet InfiniBand 10 GbE w/ RDMA, TOE 10 GbE w/ TOE 1 GbE Market Size Microsoft Chimney Software 2004-07 ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 63. iSCSI on roadmap of storage vendors SAN iSCSI NAS (Fibre COST (IP) (IP) Channel) •iSCSI delivers low-cost Networked Storage –Higher availability,Increased usage High End –Centralized management,Storage functionality FC & iSCSI Mid-Tier FC & iSCSI Mid-Tier NAS & iSCSI Entry FC & iSCSI SERVICE LEVEL ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 64. Management – Blade Servers Ultra-dense HW • Density 20 % • Power Consumption 20% • Cable Management Management • Platforms integration:  Hardware  Software 80%  Network  Management • Scalability 80 % • Security • Manageability • Lowest TCO ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 65. Tiered Storage by Price/Performance Desktop PC Servers Large Enterprise Entry NAS Midline Storage SAN & NAS Workstations Mainstream NAS/SAN PC SAS SAS HBA/RAID FC RAID Chipset HBA Drive Interface SATA SAS SAS Drive Types 5400 RPM 10K RPM 7200 RPM 15K RPM SATA Drive SAS Drive FC Drive Source:Maxtor ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 66. Unified Server & Storage Mgmt Enterprise Management HP/OV IBM/Tivoli BMC/Patrol CA/Unicenter MS/MOM Systems Management Auto Inventory Distributed Event Exception Discovery Mgmt Tools Notification Reporting Capacity Security Matrix Controls Tools Management Policies Integration Repository Definition Auto Performance Workload Topology Performance Provisioning Discovery Management Management Management Management Manager Blades Syst VM Cluster Conf Chargeback File System Policy Management Management Management Management Manager Manager Patch Partition 3rd Party SW Oracle View Exchange Custom Automation Management Management Management Management Reports Mgr Server Storage ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 67. Unified Mgmt Stack Application Management Change & Configuration Suite Identity Manager Automation Manager Service Level Manager Infrastructure Management System Manager Blade System Management Suite Virtual Server Management Server & Storage Unified Management Elements Management Standards/Interoperability SNMP/SMI-S/WBEM/WMI/SMASH/SOAP/XML Storage / Disk Arrays / Tape Products & Vendors HDS, IBM, Cisco, SunBrocade, EMC, McData, NetApp, qLogic, Servers / Blades Products & Vendors IBM, HP, Sun, Fujitsu, NEC, Unisys, Intel ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 68. Storage Mgmt Tools • Console: Main console for open, heterogeneous SAN Mgmt • Provisioning Wizard: Wizard to provision Hetero Host to Storage Arrays • Charge Back Mgmt: Asset based Chargeback Mgmt • Data Base Monitor: Oracle DB Availability & Performance Views • EMail Monitor: Exchange Availability & Performance Views • Enterprise SW Monitor: SAP Elements Availability & Performance Views • Capacity Mgmt: Filesystem scanning for reclaiming wasted space • One View: Consolidated reporting of multiple storage/server instances • Report Template Designer: Custom Mgmt Console & Reports for infrastructure ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 69. Defense System • launch readiness Health Systems 4 Time to • Emergency Syst Recover • Computer Dispatch • Patient Monitoring from System Failure Cost Navigation Syst 4 • Shipping, Satellites. - to eliminate Reservation Syst 4 • Air Travel (Fail-over SPOFs • Auto Rentals Time) Banking Services 4 Manufacturing 3 • ATM Transactions • EFT Utility Opns 3 Financial Srvcs 4 Telecom 3 • Securities Trading Messaging • NumberPortability Telecom 3 • Customer Srvcs Systems 2 • Call Location • e-mail Internet 3 Retailing 2 • eCommerce Office Sys • POS • HR 1 • Shipping Availability 99.0% 99.9% 99.99% 99.999% 99.9999% Availability Level HAL- 2 HAL- 3 HAL- 4 HAL- 5 HAL- 6 Downtime/yr. ~ 4 days ~ 8 Hrs ~ 1 Hr. ~ 5 mts. 30 sec Time/Outage ~ 4 Hrs ~ 30 mts. ~ 5 mts. ~ 1 mt. ~ 10 sec Outages/yr. 24 16 12 5 3 ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 70. Remote Intranet Replicated Server Cluster Host Fault- Cluster/ Disk Connect Tolerance Apps Fault- Fault- Fault-Toleran Tolerance Fault-Tolern • Shared Storage Tolerance • Shared • Continuous Replicated • Controller FO Resources • Cluster SW • Remote Copy - • RAID (Disk • Hot Spare Disks • Server FO • Oracle OPS • Synchronized Fail Over) • Redundant Power • AutoRecovery • Databases Data Mirroring • Write Hole Supplies & Fans • Transaction Replication • Zonal Disaster • Hot Swap - Disks • Redundant NICs Recovery • Auto Restart Boot Tolerant • ECC Memory • NIC Failover • Dedicated Monitoring • Router Path • Power Outage • Hot Swap Cards Server Redundancy • SNMP Alerts •Load Balancing Single Server Local Server/Cluster Remote Cluster Single Site Multi-site Systems Management ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  • 71. System Cost vs. High Availability z/390 $10 M Sysplex Avg. S/390 S/390 Syst z/390 MVS MVS IBM IBM Price Propl Propl $1 M Prop. Sun-Solaris Sun-Solaris HP-UX HP-UX IBM IBM IBM-AIX IBM-AIX $100 K Clustered NCR-SVR4 NCR-SVR4 Bull Bull Dell Dell UNIX AS400 Fujitsu Fujitsu HP HP IBM IBM NEC NEC Siemens Siemens Stratus Stratus UNIX Cluster Win Win $10K Linux Clustered Linux 0.1 1 10 100 Downtime Hrs./Syst/Yr 99.999% 99.99% 99.9% 99.0% System Availability ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX