Next GenerationData CentersAnil VasudevaPrincipal Analyst & Presidentanil@imexresearch.com408-268-0800                    ...
• Markets Drivers/Industry Dynamics          Blades – An evolution from PC Servers to Supercomputers          Major Applic...
Chaos in the Enterprise . . .                                                                                             ...
Market Trends Data Center Automation Targets                                                20-25%       Servers          ...
Server Market Segmentation - Platforms                                             Large SMP                              ...
3 Tier Computing Infrastructure     Application     End-Users                                                        Unif...
NexGen Architecture                                                                Ethernet,                              ...
End to End Internet                                                             HA, Secure Data Center                    ...
Market Segments by Applications                                                            OLTP                           ...
TPC’s priority - High Availability & Syst Cost                         z/390              $10 M     Sysplex        Avg.   ...
HPC: Going from Academia to Wall St to Hollywood                         High Performance                                 ...
Blades Servers - Infrastructure                                                                         Management Modules...
Blades - TCO Savings & ROI                              3 Year TCO Savings                                                ...
Management – Blade Servers                                                     Ultra-dense HW                             ...
Blade Server Management Software                                                                           Automation     ...
Blade Server Management Software                                                               Enterprise Mgmt SW         ...
Blades Management Architecture                                                                         Chassis            ...
State of Interconnect Fabrics     Latency/hop       1 ms                           EHERNET - LAN/SAN/MAN/WAN              ...
Industry Standard Servers Market (x86 based)                   12,000                              Blades                 ...
Blade Servers Market Opportunity                                WW Blade Servers                                Market Opp...
iSCSI on roadmap of storage vendors                                    US Market - SBC & xTCA Revenues                    ...
IP Telecom Server Blades                                     ATCA Server Blades Forecast                        7,000     ...
Blade Servers: Vendor Positioning Index(As of Jan.2005 - See IMEX Blade Servers Report 2005 for new data & indexing metric...
Blade Servers – Low Cost Suppliesr?                                    Mitac                TatungHitachiTatungt3Up Syst  ...
Storage Market Requirements                                            FC SAN,                                           E...
iSCSI on roadmap of storage vendors              SAN                    iSCSI                NAS             (FibreCOST   ...
Enterprise Market is now cost conscious                 100%                  90%                                         ...
The iSCSI SAN  ClientWorkstations                                                          Client requests data from App S...
Ethernet - TCP + iSCSI Offload Engines    Typical 1GbE NIC                                                  File System   ...
Future: IP Storage Management on a chip                      Host Services Integration                                    ...
Go-to-market: Channels of Distribution                                                                                    ...
Major Players in Infrastructure ConvergenceNetworks                                                  Storage              ...
Potential for Blades - Everywhere                     xSP          IntrDet                                Enterprise      ...
Holy Grail - Future Intelligent IP Infrastructure         Present Data Center Infrastructue                           Futu...
Emerging IP Based Infrastructure                                 Servers                     Storage                      ...
Server Architectures: Competitive Technologies              Price/Performance                                             ...
3 Tier Computing Architecture                                                      Web       App                          ...
WW IT Spending Levels Off …                           Worldwide IT` Spending & Growth ($B)     $B                         ...
WW Server Management Costs Rise              WW Server Spending : Acquisition vs. Management                              ...
Admin Cost % of Total Cost IncreasingTCO - Server Connections to FC SANs       $40       $35       $34K       $30       $2...
HA End to End Internet                                           with Security Products                     xSP          I...
Corporate Data Usage                                               Nearline                                               ...
Next GenerationServersAnil VasudevaPrincipal Analyst & Presidentanil@imexresearch.com408-268-0800                         ...
Servers - Competitive Price/Performance                                 Competitive Analysis: tpmC vs. $/tpmC             ...
Market Directions     Market bifurcation in the near term (2005-2006)     – Business Computer Market continue to migrat...
Targeted Price/PerformanceMeasure                                           tpmC      Price $ $/tpmCBest 5 ($/tpmC)       ...
Positioning – HE Enterprise Servers                                               Enterprise Servers Delivery Strategy    ...
Positioning - Midrange Servers                                               Midrange Servers         Delivery Strategy   ...
$-                                                              $10,000                                                   ...
Niche OpportunitiesNiche Market Opportunity Gaps• Address OLTP Market Gap - Performance DB market• Large Memory Needed to ...
Server Targets                                            CUSTOMER                                            Total Soluti...
Major markets in Cluster Volume Servers   100.0%                                                           Volume Servers ...
IT Infrastructure, Sys.Mgmt & Applications                                                                          Broad ...
IT Spending by Vertical Markets                               WW IT Spending by Vertical Industry                         ...
Server Spending in Vertical Markets                                                     WW Spending on Servers    Retail W...
Go-to-Market StartegiesServers MarketSize & Growth ‘04-’05                               $1B+               Server Budget ...
Technology Comparison                                    SATA                     SAS              Fibre Channel          ...
Market Segments by Applications                                              OLTP               Transaction   10 K        ...
WW Server EU Revenues by OS                           $70                           $60                                   ...
WW High Availability Server Market                                   WW HA Servers Market                           $40   ...
Open System Shipments dominate                                          Server OS Shipments - New Licenses                ...
Interconnect Price/Performance Hierarchy          High MB/s,          Low Latency,          Price/Port                    ...
iSCSI on roadmap of storage vendors              SAN                    iSCSI                NAS             (FibreCOST   ...
Management – Blade Servers                                                     Ultra-dense HW                             ...
Tiered Storage by Price/Performance            Desktop PC                                  Servers          Large Enterpri...
Unified Server & Storage Mgmt                                        Enterprise Management             HP/OV              ...
Unified Mgmt Stack                                Application Management                                    Change & Confi...
Storage Mgmt Tools• Console: Main console for open, heterogeneous SAN Mgmt• Provisioning Wizard: Wizard to provision Heter...
Defense System                                                                                                            ...
Remote                                                                       Intranet                 Replicated          ...
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Next Generation Data Centers

  1. 1. Next GenerationData CentersAnil VasudevaPrincipal Analyst & Presidentanil@imexresearch.com408-268-0800 IMEX RESEARCH.COM ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  2. 2. • Markets Drivers/Industry Dynamics Blades – An evolution from PC Servers to Supercomputers Major Applications – Access, HPC, NIC, TP 4 Tiered Computing & Telecom Markets by Environment Incumbents vs. Startups • Market Segments – Mkt.Fcst./Shares/Channels Market Forecast, Migrations, Supply Chain, Channels, Price Erosion • Industry Issues/Technology Hurdles Stds./Midplane, Server Mgmt/DMTF, Fabric Choices Thermals, IP Acceleration • Futures Opportunities for Startups Complexity Reduction, Data Center Mgmt , From Next Gen PCs to Clustered Supercomputers Interested Venture Capital©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  3. 3. Chaos in the Enterprise . . . File transfers AIX to Database extracts MVS FTP between Sun - HP/UX via Platinum to SP2 via MQ Series 4.4 NT 9.9 Network IBM3090-600J IBM RS6000 TM TM AIX 4.1, 4.2, 4.3 HP MVS/ESA Sun DB2/6000 UX 10, 11.0, 11.2 MPE Server/OS IMS / ADABAS Solaris 3.2, 3.4, 3.5 Sybase 11.9, 12 TM TM Oracle 7.5, 8.0 Fujitsu Database IBM AS/400 DS90UX Compaq OS/400 P/M ProLiant 2500,5500 NT 3.5, 4.0 SQLApplication CICS Batch CAD/CAM Inventory PeopleSoft Financials Lotus E-commerce Exchange Notes OLTP Storage STK Silos Tape Legato to DLT BU by FDR 8mm Backup Cheyenn Backup Upstream IBM e to 4mm HP ADSM3490 OmniBack Test Disaster D/R plan (MF only) Recovery (1) Scales poorly (2) Difficult to manage (3) Reliability is questionable (4) Management costs out of control ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  4. 4. Market Trends Data Center Automation Targets 20-25% Servers Utilization 80+% 15-30 Servers Servers/Admin 500+ 1TB Storage Terabytes/DBA 100TB Networks 50-100Ntwk Ports/Admin 500+ System HAL- 3 (99.9%) Availability HAL- 5 (99.999%) ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  5. 5. Server Market Segmentation - Platforms Large SMP Parallel Sysplex Scale Up (Consolidated SMP Servers) Dynamic LPAR Rack Clusters SW Provisioning/VMWare High Availability/ IBM: i890/p690/z990 Hi Perform.Clusters SUN: SunFire 4800,12K -Linux/AIX/Solaris Clusters - HPC Clusters DELL: PowerEdge 6650 ORACLE: 9iRAC/PE6650 Blade Servers High Density Rack Mount -Highly Integrated Dense FF -Rapid Deployment, Flex Architect. -RLX: 300i, 800i, HP: 40b, p -FUJITSU: BX300, DELL:1655 IBM: HS20,40,JS20 Sun:100 s,x Scale Out (Clustered Blade Servers)©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  6. 6. 3 Tier Computing Infrastructure Application End-Users  Uniform and ubiquitous physical Connectivity – “Wire Once” Internet  Any user to any server via the Network Services: Internet Web Servers,  Any server to any server via the LAN Firewalls,  Any sever to any storage via the SAN Load balancers LAN  Dynamic Logical Binding of…  …server network identifyApplication Services:  …server OS versionApplication Servers &  …server application assignment Database Servers  …application data volumes SAN  Resulting in  Application Mobility across servers Storage  Data mobility across storage ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  7. 7. NexGen Architecture Ethernet, Network Fabric Wi-Fi. System Fabric Management Quadrics, SNMP, Myrinet, Fabric IETF/ InfiniBand, CIM, Ethernet IP, SMI-S, Ethernet IP w/TOE, SMASH. Ethernet IP w/TOE+RDMA, Microsoft Chimney SCSI, Fiber Channel, iSCSI ATA, SCSI, SATA, SAS©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  8. 8. End to End Internet HA, Secure Data Center FC SAN IP SAN NAS NAS IP Storage Network Web App Internet Web DB Edge Core Web App Optical Web DB Web App Web Web DB App Web Edge Applications Data Center Directory Security Policy Management Software OS Platform©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  9. 9. Market Segments by Applications OLTP Transaction 10 K Processing eCommerce Data DSS (RAID - 0, 3) (RAID - 1, 5, 6) 1K Warehousing (Latency) Visual DBIOPs 100 Scientific Computing HPC HPC Imaging TPC 10 Audio Streaming Streaming HPC Video 1 1 5 10 50 100 500 ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved *IOs per sesond for a required response time ( ms) MB/sec IMEX
  10. 10. TPC’s priority - High Availability & Syst Cost z/390 $10 M Sysplex Avg. S/390 S/390 Syst z/390 MVS MVS IBM IBM Price Propl Propl $1 M Prop. Sun-Solaris Sun-Solaris HP-UX HP-UX IBM IBM IBM-AIX IBM-AIX $100 K Clustered NCR-SVR4 NCR-SVR4 Bull Bull Dell Dell UNIX AS400 Fujitsu Fujitsu HP HP IBM IBM NEC NEC Siemens Siemens Stratus Stratus UNIX Cluster Win Win $10K Linux Clustered Linux 0.1 1 10 100 Downtime Hrs./Syst/Yr 99.999% 99.99% 99.9% 99.0% System Availability©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  11. 11. HPC: Going from Academia to Wall St to Hollywood High Performance Entertainment High Performance Commercial Bioinformatics Decision-Support Entertainment Commercial BioInformatics Decision Audio/Video OnDemand Computing Computing Visualization Visualization Support Syst Audio/Video On Demand SystemsData: IMEX Research & Panasas 100+ Teraflops Rendering (Texture & Polygons) Data rate & capacity Throughput =Research All rights Reserved Throughput = 1.2 GB/s ©2000-2005 IMEX 100 GB/s Throughput : DSL/Cable IMEX ©2004--05 IMEX Research.com
  12. 12. Blades Servers - Infrastructure Management Modules Remote Mgmt+KVM over IP Midplane Networking: Gbit Ethernet Switches W/Connectors Storage: IP NAS or FC SAN To Blades & Back Switch Cooling N+1Fans/Cooling Modules Processor Blades Modules (6-24 typically) Power: N+1Power Supplies Blade Control Panel USB Ports, CD/Floppy I/F ~ GbE Switch supports Trunking/Port Aggregation Flow Control Gbit QoS Packet Prioritization Memory Ethernet SNMP/RMON Systems I/F Micro- DDR w IGMP/BOOTP/TFTP Monitor Processors ECC …… Module © 2003 Source: IMEX Research©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  13. 13. Blades - TCO Savings & ROI 3 Year TCO Savings TCO Savings in.. Rack vs. Blade Servers OPEX 100% Staff/ Support Maintenance/ 25% 80% Downtime 54% Facilities/ % Contribution 60% Power 67% OPEX 21% 40% 46% CAPEX Networking 19% 20% Servers 33% 46% Storage CAPEX 25% Infrastructure 13% 0% 1 SW Rack Servers Blade2Servers Infrastructure 22% ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights ReservedData: IMEX Research 2004 IMEX
  14. 14. Management – Blade Servers Ultra-dense HW • Density 20 % • Power Consumption 20% • Cable Management Management • Platforms integration:  Hardware  Software 80%  Network  Management • Scalability 80 % • Security • Manageability • Lowest TCO©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  15. 15. Blade Server Management Software Automation Provisioning Automatically Maintains Application Service Level ObjectivesVirtualization Provisions the Resources Required to Deliver a Business ServiceAllocates, Monitors,and Meters the Usageof Pooled Resources ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  16. 16. Blade Server Management Software Enterprise Mgmt SW (HPOV,IBM Tivoli, BMC Patrol,Sun MC..) Rack Rack Mgmt Chassis Chassis Mgmt Backplane Blade Mgmt Blades©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  17. 17. Blades Management Architecture Chassis Shared Modules MC Mgmt Srvr Mgmt Bus IP Bus MC MC MC MC MC MC Chassis Mgmt Bl. Compute Blade Compute Blade Compute Blade Network Blade Storage Blade©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  18. 18. State of Interconnect Fabrics Latency/hop 1 ms EHERNET - LAN/SAN/MAN/WAN FE GbE IB - CLUSTER ATM IBM/SP MPP 100 us Servernet Dolphin SMP/NUMA T3E Myrinet SGI GbE Quadrics Mellanox w/TOE 10 us FJ/Synfinity Synfinity-1 GbE 10GbE w/RDMA Scali w/RDMA 1us 100 Mb/sec 1Gb/sec 10 Gb/sec Bandwidth/link©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  19. 19. Industry Standard Servers Market (x86 based) 12,000 Blades 10,000 Rackmounts Pedestals 8,000 Units (K) 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  20. 20. Blade Servers Market Opportunity WW Blade Servers Market Opportunity (cum 2004-2008) Factory Rev $B Revenues ~ $24 Billion Units ~ 9 Million 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved Data: IMEX Research 2005 IMEX
  21. 21. iSCSI on roadmap of storage vendors US Market - SBC & xTCA Revenues 800 700 US Revenues $M 600 cPCI SBC cPCI SBC 500 w Blades Impact 400 300 200 xTCA Blades 100 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  22. 22. IP Telecom Server Blades ATCA Server Blades Forecast 7,000 Signaling 6,000 Core Edge 5,000 Access 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 - 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  23. 23. Blade Servers: Vendor Positioning Index(As of Jan.2005 - See IMEX Blade Servers Report 2005 for new data & indexing metrics) Strategy (Potential) IBM Fujitsu Siemens NEC Intel HP Dell © 2003-05 IMEX Research Nexcom Tatung Egenera Sun Verari Linux Networx Appro Rackable Sys ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved Delivery (Success) IMEX
  24. 24. Blade Servers – Low Cost Suppliesr? Mitac TatungHitachiTatungt3Up Syst ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  25. 25. Storage Market Requirements FC SAN, Existing Deployed IP SAN (Block) Storage Networks (FCP & FICON) (Block and File) Enterprise Co lti-P ace Scalability Mu nter Data nv rot &I Center erg ocFUNCTIONS IP SAN COST en ol f (Block or File) “SAN in a Can” ce Departmental Small (iSCSI) (Block & File) Medium Business Simplified Use and (SMB/SME) NAS Install File Workgroup (NFS & Low Cost CIFS) Min. Features Easy to Use Desktop SOHO and Mobile Self-Installable Performance and capacity alone are no longer distinguishers attributes between enterprise and distributed storage ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  26. 26. iSCSI on roadmap of storage vendors SAN iSCSI NAS (FibreCOST (IP) (IP) Channel) •iSCSI delivers low-cost Networked Storage –Higher availability,Increased usage High End –Centralized management,Storage functionality FC & iSCSI Mid-Tier FC & iSCSI Mid-Tier NAS & iSCSI Entry FC & iSCSI SERVICE LEVEL©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  27. 27. Enterprise Market is now cost conscious 100% 90% SATA 80% 70% 60% SAS 50% 40% 30% FC 20% 10% P_SCSI 0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  28. 28. The iSCSI SAN ClientWorkstations Client requests data from App Server LAN Ethernet Header IP TCP DATA CRC Ethernet SwitchesApplication & DB Servers (iSCSI Initiator) iSCSI-equipped App Server (“initiator”) requests data from an iSCSI storage (“target”) SAN Ethernet CRC IP TCP iSCSI SCSI DATA GigE Header SwitchesStorage Arrays (iSCSI Target) To Other LANs, Servers or IP SANs ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  29. 29. Ethernet - TCP + iSCSI Offload Engines Typical 1GbE NIC File System File System Host File System SW Volume Manager Volume Manager Volume Manager SCSI Device Driver SCSI Device Driver SCSI Device Driver iSCSI iSCSI iSCSI Adapter TCP TCP TCP IP IP IP Ethernet Ethernet Ethernet Host CPU HBA Firmware HBA Hardware©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  30. 30. Future: IP Storage Management on a chip Host Services Integration Storage ProvisioningFile system monitoring Storage provisioning Win, LINUX, Solaris Layer IP SAN Management Management Management of MultiPath IO Supp Security IP SAN Console iSCSI HBAs and Failover (iSNS, CHAP, SRP) Management Layer Virtualization Mirroring Snapshot Fail-Over iSCSI Target Management Appliance LVM, Error Handling, SCSI Daemon, API Interoperability Service Layer HW Acceleration: TOE, iSCSI Offload, IPsec©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  31. 31. Go-to-market: Channels of Distribution Industry Structure Manufacturers Channels of Distribution Vertical Markets MedicalDisk & Tape Drives & Host Bus Adapters F1000 Telecom Govt. HA + Ntwk + System Mgmt SW & Servers OEM Components - Chips & Boards ... RAID Large ISPs Insurance Contllrs Clusters Finance Manufacturing Lg. Sys VIA IPC Integrator SANs VARS Med Hubs LANs NICs Sml SI/VAR WANs Switches Distributor VADS Internet Sml Routers Backbone ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  32. 32. Major Players in Infrastructure ConvergenceNetworks Storage Servers ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  33. 33. Potential for Blades - Everywhere xSP IntrDet Enterprise VPN IntrDet WebServices App.Servers DBServers IntrDetSupplier/Partner ISP IntrDet ISP Internet ISP Core Edge Optical Networking ISP Access ISP ISP Remote Office IntrDet IntrDet Cable Modem 56K DSL MP3 VOD Wireless Cellular Research All rights Reserved Home Networks ©2000-2005 IMEX IMEX
  34. 34. Holy Grail - Future Intelligent IP Infrastructure Present Data Center Infrastructue Future Infrastructue Clients LAN Ntwk Mgmt WSApplication & Intelligent DB Servers Uniform IP-based Infrastructure Mgmt SAN Storage WS Mgmt WS Storage Sub Systems ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  35. 35. Emerging IP Based Infrastructure Servers Storage IP Networks Infrastructure Telecom Virtualization Provisioning Automation©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  36. 36. Server Architectures: Competitive Technologies Price/Performance Performance: SMP vs. Clustering Serial vs.Parallel Computing Multinode Clusters Performance - tpc SMP w/8 way MPP w/4 way SerialPrice 16 32 MF 8 N-way SMP 6 4 2 Clustering i Performance Number of Processors Scalable Perf. vs. Availability Scalable Performance MPP Clustering SMP FT UniP ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved Availability IMEX
  37. 37. 3 Tier Computing Architecture Web App SAN Web DB Storage Network Storage Network Web App Internet SAN Web Edge Core DB Optical Web App NAS Web Caching, Proxy, FW Security, IDS, DNS Web DB Load Balancing … App Servers Web NAS Tier-1 Tier-2 Tier-3 Edge Computing Applications Data Center©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  38. 38. WW IT Spending Levels Off … Worldwide IT` Spending & Growth ($B) $B Average % 1,400 12 IT Spending IT Growth 10 1,200 8 1,000 6 800 4 600 2 0 400 -2 200 -4 0 -6 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  39. 39. WW Server Management Costs Rise WW Server Spending : Acquisition vs. Management Installed BaseSpending (M Units) ($B) 200 35 180 30 160 140 25 120 20 100 80 15 60 10 40 5 20 0 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 New Server spending cost of m gm t. & adm in. installed Base Server (M unit)©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  40. 40. Admin Cost % of Total Cost IncreasingTCO - Server Connections to FC SANs $40 $35 $34K $30 $25 Acq. Cost $K $20 $15 $13K Admin. Cost $10 $6.5K $5 $6K $- 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  41. 41. HA End to End Internet with Security Products xSP IntrDet Enterprise VPN IntrDet WebServices App.Servers DBServers IntrDetSupplier/Partner ISP IntrDet ISP Internet ISP Core Edge Optical Networking ISP Access ISP ISP Remote Office IntrDet IntrDet Cable Modem 56K DSL MP3 VOD Wireless Cellular Research All rights Reserved Home Networks ©2000-2005 IMEX IMEX
  42. 42. Corporate Data Usage Nearline Storage IMEX©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved
  43. 43. Next GenerationServersAnil VasudevaPrincipal Analyst & Presidentanil@imexresearch.com408-268-0800 IMEX RESEARCH.COM ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  44. 44. Servers - Competitive Price/Performance Competitive Analysis: tpmC vs. $/tpmC 150,000 Compaq Dell Fujitsu HP IBM Sun Average 100,000 tpmC 50,000 0 $- $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $/tpmC©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  45. 45. Market Directions Market bifurcation in the near term (2005-2006) – Business Computer Market continue to migrate to Windows Servers 2003 from UNIX & Mainframes (HE Computers >$250K ASP) – High Performance Computing (15% of market now to grow rapidly) initially the domain of Linux HPC will embrace Business Computing (2006-08) – Over time some applications such as Wall Street Financial OLAP/DSS, Health/Bioinformatics will migrate towards Business Computing Linux will take market share from Unix vs. Windows because of the similarities between between Linux & UNIX before it has any discernible impact on Windows 2003 ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  46. 46. Targeted Price/PerformanceMeasure tpmC Price $ $/tpmCBest 5 ($/tpmC) 208,779 977,149 5All Itanium 188,816 1,053,964 6All Average 60,341 $ 1,285,309 $ 100Sun Solaris 18,821 1,748,527 112All IBM AIX 61,180 1,613,784 179All Non Intel CPU 44,850 1,798,298 186©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  47. 47. Positioning – HE Enterprise Servers Enterprise Servers Delivery Strategy Index Product IA-32/x ItaniuRISC Others 3.4 2.5 8.5 HP NonStop x 2.2 4.3 9.5 Bull Escala x 4.3 2.2 9.5 FSC BS2000 x x 2.8 3.4 9.5 Bull GCOS x 5.2 3.2 16.6 Unisys Clearpath x x 6.1 3.3 20.1 NCR x 5.4 5.2 28.1 IBM iSeries x 7.4 5.3 39.2 SunFire x 5.2 7.6 39.5 Unisys Orion ES7000 x x 8.1 5.8 47.0 IBM zSeries x 6.0 8.5 51.0 Fujitsu Prim epow er x 7.8 7.6 59.3 HP9K/Integrity x x 9.1 6.9 62.8 IBM pSeries x©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  48. 48. Positioning - Midrange Servers Midrange Servers Delivery Strategy Index Product IA-32/x ItaniuRISC Others 1.7 2.8 4.8 Bull Escala x 1.5 7.0 10.5 Egenera BladeFram e x 1.5 8.2 12.3 Bull NovaScale x 2.7 4.8 13.0 Bull Express x 4.6 3.1 14.3 IBM iSeries x 2.2 7.4 16.3 Stratus ftServer x 5.3 4.1 21.7 IBM xSeries x 3.6 6.3 22.7 NEC Express x x 4.7 6.0 28.2 Fujitsu Prim ergy x x 4.0 8.3 33.2 Fujitsu Prim epow er x 5.9 6.2 36.6 Sunfire x 6.8 5.5 37.4 IBM pSeries x 4.6 8.2 37.7 Unisys Aries ES7000 x x 5.7 7.9 45.0 HP9K/Integrity x x 8.7 6.0 52.2 Dell Pow erEdge x x 8.2 7.2 59.0 HP ProLiant x 7.7 7.9 60.8 IBM xSeries x x©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  49. 49. $- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 IBM x366 4w Cranford $19,770 3.66/1M Single Core ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IBM x365 4w Gallatin 3.0/4M Single Core $29,980 Dell PE6850 4w Potomac $26,808 3.33/8M Single Core HP DL580 G3 4w Potomac $32,607 3.33/8M Single Core HP DL585 4w Opteron 2.6GHz/1M Single core $24,816 ((4 socket - Single/Dual Core Configs) HP DL585 4w Opteron 2.2GHz/2M Dual core $31,416 Sun Fire V40z 4w Opteron Street Pricing - 4way / 8way Systems 2.2GHz/2M Dual core $37,244 HP rx4640 4w Itanium2 1.6/9M Single Core $61,820 Dual Core leveraging 4way/8way ServersIMEX
  50. 50. Niche OpportunitiesNiche Market Opportunity Gaps• Address OLTP Market Gap - Performance DB market• Large Memory Needed to Address Performance DB & Business Intelligence Markets• Leverage In-Memory DB (Oracle’s acquisition of Times Ten)• Integrated 3-Tier Solution vs. Standalone SMPs• Mix & Match IA-32 & IA-64 - Investment Protection - Address Value & Performance Markets Concurrently• Geo Load Balancer: BC & DR Markets Covered ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  51. 51. Server Targets CUSTOMER Total Solutions Support TECHNOLOGY PRICE DUAL/MULTI $/tpmC CORE 32/64-BIT INVESTMENT HIGH PROTECTION AVAILABILITY Servers 32/64b Mix/Match + Migration Tools 99.999% OPEX Power PERFORMANCE Management In Memory DB Middleware Servers/Storage/Networking Products & Support©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  52. 52. Major markets in Cluster Volume Servers 100.0% Volume Servers (Bladed ) <$25K ASP 80.0% 60.0% Volume Servers (Non-Bladed) ASP <$25K 40.0% Midrange ASP $25-250K 20.0% 0.0% High End ASP >$250K 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  53. 53. IT Infrastructure, Sys.Mgmt & Applications Broad CAD/ Band ERP CRM SCM CAM HPC EAI Data High Ntwk OS Security Mgmt Availability Mgmt©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  54. 54. IT Spending by Vertical Markets WW IT Spending by Vertical Industry Transportation 6% Mfg-Com puter Energy Related Education 6% 6% 2% Manufacturing Telecom Health 10% 1% 6% Utilities 2% Defence Financial 1% 11% Services 14% Media 2% 2% Governm ent Metals/Mining 12% other 1% 9% Construction Retail Wholesale 1% 18% Misc 1%©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  55. 55. Server Spending in Vertical Markets WW Spending on Servers Retail Wholesale Financials Manufacturing Energy TransportationMid-Computer Related Health Telecom utilities Defense Services Media Government Education Metals/Mining Construction OLTP DSS HPC Streaming Misc Hospitality 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  56. 56. Go-to-Market StartegiesServers MarketSize & Growth ‘04-’05 $1B+ Server Budget > $1.5 M 10,229 Firms Direct Sales to Large SI/EU $ 23.2 B Large Custom Solutions 2.8 % Enterprise $100 M to $1B Server Budget $50 K-$1.5 M Mid-Size Enterprise VAD/VAR facilitated by ITG $ 17.4 B 67,873 Firms SI/ Express Solutions & Packages 9.5 % $25M to $100 M Medium Business 185,794 Firms Server Budget $5K - $50K$ 7.8 B $1M to $25 M Retail, Volume Resell, VARS Standard SMB Products 12.8 % Small Business 3,577,862 Firms©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  57. 57. Technology Comparison SATA SAS Fibre Channel Half-duplex Full-duplex with Full Duplex Link AggregationPerformance 1.5 Gb/s Introduction 3.0Gb/s Introduction 2.0Gb/s 3.0Gb/s in 2004/5 6.0Gb/s in 2006/7 4Gb/s in 2004/5 > 8m external cable > 8m external cable 15m external cableConnectivity One device >128 devices 127 devices (multiple devices with port (16,384 max) multiplier) No peer-to-peer Peer-to-peer Peer-to-peer Single-port HDDs Dual-port HDDs Dual-port HDDs Availability Single-host Multi-initiator Multi-initiator Driver Software transparent Software transparent Software transparent Model with Parallel ATA with Parallel SCSI with Parallel SCSI©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  58. 58. Market Segments by Applications OLTP Transaction 10 K Processing eCommerce Data DSS (RAID - 0, 3) (RAID - 1, 5, 6) 1K Warehousing IOPs Visual DB(Latency) 100 Scientific Computing NIC Imaging TP 10 Audio Streaming HPC Video 1 1 5 10 50 100 500 *IOs per sesond for a required response time ( ms) MB/sec ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  59. 59. WW Server EU Revenues by OS $70 $60 Other $50 OS390 EU Rev. $B OS400 UNIX $40 UNIX Window s $30 Linux Netw are $20 Windows $10 Linux $- 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  60. 60. WW High Availability Server Market WW HA Servers Market $40 $35 Other $30 zSeries EU Rev $B $25 i-Series $20 UNIX $15 $10 $5 Window $0 Linux 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  61. 61. Open System Shipments dominate Server OS Shipments - New Licenses 10000 9000 8000 7000 Linux (Paid) 6000 Units (000s) 5000 4000 Win 2003 W2K 3000 Server NT 2000 1000 UNIX Total NetWare 0 MF 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  62. 62. Interconnect Price/Performance Hierarchy High MB/s, Low Latency, Price/Port Quadrics Myrinet InfiniBand 10 GbE w/ RDMA, TOE 10 GbE w/ TOE 1 GbE Market Size Microsoft Chimney Software 2004-07©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  63. 63. iSCSI on roadmap of storage vendors SAN iSCSI NAS (FibreCOST (IP) (IP) Channel) •iSCSI delivers low-cost Networked Storage –Higher availability,Increased usage High End –Centralized management,Storage functionality FC & iSCSI Mid-Tier FC & iSCSI Mid-Tier NAS & iSCSI Entry FC & iSCSI SERVICE LEVEL©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  64. 64. Management – Blade Servers Ultra-dense HW • Density 20 % • Power Consumption 20% • Cable Management Management • Platforms integration:  Hardware  Software 80%  Network  Management • Scalability 80 % • Security • Manageability • Lowest TCO©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  65. 65. Tiered Storage by Price/Performance Desktop PC Servers Large Enterprise Entry NAS Midline Storage SAN & NAS Workstations Mainstream NAS/SAN PC SAS SAS HBA/RAID FC RAID Chipset HBA DriveInterface SATA SAS SASDriveTypes 5400 RPM 10K RPM 7200 RPM 15K RPM SATA Drive SAS Drive FC Drive Source:Maxtor ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  66. 66. Unified Server & Storage Mgmt Enterprise Management HP/OV IBM/Tivoli BMC/Patrol CA/Unicenter MS/MOM Systems Management Auto Inventory Distributed Event Exception Discovery Mgmt Tools Notification Reporting Capacity Security Matrix Controls Tools Management Policies Integration Repository Definition Auto Performance Workload Topology Performance Provisioning Discovery Management Management Management Management Manager Blades Syst VM Cluster Conf Chargeback File System Policy Management Management Management Management Manager Manager Patch Partition 3rd Party SW Oracle View Exchange Custom Automation Management Management Management Management Reports Mgr Server Storage©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  67. 67. Unified Mgmt Stack Application Management Change & Configuration Suite Identity Manager Automation Manager Service Level Manager Infrastructure Management System Manager Blade System Management Suite Virtual Server Management Server & Storage Unified Management Elements Management Standards/Interoperability SNMP/SMI-S/WBEM/WMI/SMASH/SOAP/XML Storage / Disk Arrays / Tape Products & Vendors HDS, IBM, Cisco, SunBrocade, EMC, McData, NetApp, qLogic, Servers / Blades Products & Vendors IBM, HP, Sun, Fujitsu, NEC, Unisys, Intel©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  68. 68. Storage Mgmt Tools• Console: Main console for open, heterogeneous SAN Mgmt• Provisioning Wizard: Wizard to provision Hetero Host to Storage Arrays• Charge Back Mgmt: Asset based Chargeback Mgmt• Data Base Monitor: Oracle DB Availability & Performance Views• EMail Monitor: Exchange Availability & Performance Views• Enterprise SW Monitor: SAP Elements Availability & Performance Views• Capacity Mgmt: Filesystem scanning for reclaiming wasted space• One View: Consolidated reporting of multiple storage/server instances• Report Template Designer: Custom Mgmt Console & Reports for infrastructure ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  69. 69. Defense System • launch readiness Health Systems 4 Time to • Emergency Syst Recover • Computer Dispatch • Patient Monitoring from System Failure Cost Navigation Syst 4 • Shipping, Satellites. - to eliminate Reservation Syst 4 • Air Travel (Fail-over SPOFs • Auto Rentals Time) Banking Services 4 Manufacturing 3 • ATM Transactions • EFT Utility Opns 3 Financial Srvcs 4 Telecom 3 • Securities Trading Messaging • NumberPortability Telecom 3 • Customer Srvcs Systems 2 • Call Location • e-mail Internet 3 Retailing 2 • eCommerce Office Sys • POS • HR 1 • Shipping Availability 99.0% 99.9% 99.99% 99.999% 99.9999% Availability Level HAL- 2 HAL- 3 HAL- 4 HAL- 5 HAL- 6 Downtime/yr. ~ 4 days ~ 8 Hrs ~ 1 Hr. ~ 5 mts. 30 sec Time/Outage ~ 4 Hrs ~ 30 mts. ~ 5 mts. ~ 1 mt. ~ 10 sec Outages/yr. 24 16 12 5 3©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX
  70. 70. Remote Intranet Replicated Server Cluster Host Fault- Cluster/Disk Connect Tolerance Apps Fault-Fault- Fault-Toleran Tolerance Fault-Tolern • Shared StorageTolerance • Shared • Continuous Replicated • Controller FO Resources • Cluster SW • Remote Copy -• RAID (Disk • Hot Spare Disks • Server FO • Oracle OPS • Synchronized Fail Over) • Redundant Power • AutoRecovery • Databases Data Mirroring• Write Hole Supplies & Fans • Transaction Replication • Zonal Disaster• Hot Swap - Disks • Redundant NICs Recovery • Auto Restart Boot Tolerant• ECC Memory • NIC Failover • Dedicated Monitoring • Router Path• Power Outage • Hot Swap Cards Server Redundancy• SNMP Alerts •Load Balancing Single Server Local Server/Cluster Remote Cluster Single Site Multi-site Systems Management ©2000-2005 IMEX Research All rights Reserved IMEX

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