Public opinion landscape   health care - mar 26
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  • 1. The Public Opinion Landscape:Health CareMarch 26, 2012
  • 2. SUMMARY1. Two years since being signed into law, opinion on the health reform law remains divided • Views on the health reform law remain strongly partisan2. Most elements of the health reform law are viewed favorably with the exception of the individual mandate3. Most Americans consider the individual mandate unconstitutional • A substantial minority believes the law has been overturned by the Supreme Court 1
  • 3. Views on Reform 2
  • 4. TWO YEARS OF CLOSELY DIVIDED OPINION ON ACA As you may know, a health reform bill was signed into law in 2010. Given what you know about the health reform law, do you have a generally favorable or generally unfavorable opinion of it? 80% ACA signed into law on March 23, 2010 Favorable Unfavorable Don’t know/Refused 60% 50 50 51 48 49 48 46 45 46 46 44 44 44 43 44 43 44 43 44 43 42 42 41 41% 40% 43 42 43 42 40 41 41 40 40 41 41 41 42 42 42 41 41 42 40% 39 37 37 35 34 18 18 18 19 19 19% 20% 17 16 17 14 14 14 15 14 15 15 15 12 13 12 10 11 9 8 0% Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 2010 2011 2012 A recent CBS News/New York Times poll shows 47 percent of Americans disapprove of the Affordable Care Act, with 36 percent indicating they support the law. 3Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Polls
  • 5. A LASTING PARTISAN GAP ON ACA Percent who say they have a favorable opinion of the health reform law: ACA signed into law on March 23, 2010 Democrats Independents Republicans 80% 78 75 72 73 73 71 72 69 68 69 68 69 66 64 65 64 65 66% 60 62 64 62 64 60% 52 49 48 41 42 43 41 38 40 40% 40% 36 37 34 37 37 34 37 35 33 36 33 32 34 33 30 23 21 21 24 20 19 20% 16 15 17 16 16 13 12 12 11 12 14 11 9 11 12 12 12% 8 0% Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 2010 2011 2012 4Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Polls
  • 6. REPUBLICAN OPPOSITION MARKEDLY MORE INTENSE THAN DEMOCRATIC SUPPORT As you may know, a new health reform bill was signed into law early last year. Given what you know about the health reform law, do you have a generally favorable or generally unfavorable opinion of it? Total 18% 23% 11% 29% Democrats 34% 32% 6%6% Independents 15% 25% 13% 29% 4% 8% 15% 60% Republicans Very Favorable Somewhat Favorable Somewhat Unfavorable Very Unfavorable Note: DK/REF answers not shown. 5Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll, February 29 – March 5, 2012
  • 7. VAST MAJORITY HAVE HEARD MOSTLY NEGATIVE THINGS ABOUT THE LAW Have the things you’ve heard about this law recently been mainly (positive) or mainly (negative)? Mainly positive, 19% Mainly negative, 70% Mixed, 5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 6 Note: No opinion answers not shown.Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, March 7-10, 2012
  • 8. MOST AMERICANS FEEL THEY UNDERSTAND THE REFORMS THAT WERE PASSED BUT ONLY SOMEWHAT WELL; A QUARTER ADMITS THEY LACK UNDERSTANDING How well do you feel you understand the healthcare reforms that were passed by Congress in March of 2010? Feb-12 10% 18% 44% 12% 15% Apr-10 8% 20% 44% 17% 12% Extremely Well Very Well Somewhat Well Not Too Well Not Well At All Note: “Don’t know / Refused answers not 7 shown.Source: AP-GfK Poll, February, 16-20, 2012
  • 9. FEW HAVE FELT LAW’S EFFECT THOSE WHO HAVE CITE INCREASED ACCESS AND COST So far, would you say you and your family have So far, would you say you and your family personally benefitted from the health reform have been negatively affected by the health law, or not? reform law, or not? 21% 83% 14% 76% Yes Yes No No 4% 3% DK/REF DK/REF Most common benefit: Access to health care (39%) Most common negative: Cost (52%) 8Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Polls, February 29 – March 5, 2012
  • 10. MIXED FEELINGS ABOUT LAW’S IMPACT ON THE COUNTRY Do you think the country as a whole will be better off or worse off under the new health reform law, or don’t you think it will make much difference? The country as a whole 50% 40% 38% 36% 30% 20% 18% 10% 0% Better off Worse off Wont make much difference Note: “Depends” (vol.) and Don’t know / Refused answers not shown. 9Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Polls, February 29 – March 5, 2012
  • 11. ONLY A QUARTER OF AMERICANS BELIEVE THE LAW WILL MAKE THEIR FAMILY’S HEALTHCARE SITUATION BETTER; VIEWS ARE HIGHLY PARTISAN Now suppose all the provisions of the healthcare law go into effect in the next few years. In the long run, how do you think the healthcare law would affect your family’s healthcare situation? Would it make things better, not make much difference, or would it make things worse? All Americans 24% 34% 38% Democrats 40% 43% 12% Independents 26% 33% 35% Republicans 3% 25% 68% Make Better Not Much Difference Make Worse 10 Note: Don’t know / Refused answers not shown.Source: USA Today/Gallup Poll, February 20-21, 2012
  • 12. MORE PERCEIVE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF LAW THAN POSITIVE EFFECTS As of today, do you think the health care law has or has not done each of the following? YES, health care NO, health care law Don’t know/Refused law has done this has not done this Increased the federal budget deficit 54% 32% 15% Significantly increased the price of health insurance 49% 38% 12% Allowed many young adults under age 26 to obtain 47% 33% 19% health insurance coverage Caused many employers to drop health insurance coverage for their employees 44% 40% 16%Eliminated costs for preventive services such as blood 27% 51% 22% pressure screenings for people with health insurance Lowered prescription drug costs for seniors 26% 50% 24% 11Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Polls, February 29 – March 5, 2012
  • 13. Elements of the Law 12
  • 14. MOST ELEMENTS OF LAW VIEWED FAVORABLY BY MAJORITY OF PUBLIC Next, I’m going to read you several elements of the health reform law. As I read each one, please tell me whether you feel very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable about it. Very Somewhat Somewhat Very favorable favorable unfavorable unfavorableRequire easy-to-understand plan summaries 50% 29% 7% 11%Guaranteed issue 45 24 11 17Tax credits to small businesses 44 36 8 8Subsidy assistance to individuals 43 28 10 15No cost sharing for preventive services 42 27 15 13Health plan decision appeals 37 34 12 12Medicaid expansion 36 34 12 15Medical loss ratio 32 25 16 19Employer mandate/penalty for large employers 29 25 15 29Increase Medicare payroll tax on upper income 26 27 17 24Basic benefits package, defined by government 23 28 15 31Individual mandate/penalty 15 17 12 54Response wording abbreviated. Don’t know/Refused answers not shown. 13Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Polls, February 29 – March 5, 2012
  • 15. MOST POPULAR PROVISIONS AMONG LEAST WIDELY RECOGNIZED Percent who say they have a favorable opinion of each of the following and percent who say they are aware each is included in the health reform law: Percent with a favorable Percent who are aware view of provision provision is included in ACA 80% Tax credits to small businesses 49% 79% Require easy-to-understand plan summaries 49% 71% Health plan decision appeals 51% 69% No cost sharing for preventive services 37% 57% Medical loss ratio 35% 32% Individual mandate/penalty 64% 14Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Polls, February 29 – March 5, 2012
  • 16. AMERICANS OPPOSE THE INDIVIDUAL MANDATE Do you favor, oppose, or neither favor nor oppose a law... …that would require every American to have health insurance, or pay money to the government as a penalty if they do not, unless the person is very poor? Jan, 2011 Feb, 2012 59% 58% Oppose Oppose 31% 7% 34% 6% Favor Neither Favor Neither 15 Note: Don’t know / Refused answers not shown.Source: AP-GfK Poll, February 16-20, 2012
  • 17. BUT FAVOR THE EMPLOYER MANDATE Do you favor, oppose, or neither favor nor oppose a law... …requiring most medium-size and large companies to offer health insurance to their employees or pay money to the government as a penalty if they don’t? Jan, 2011 Feb, 2012 32% 32% Oppose Oppose 9% 60% 59% Neither Favor 6% Favor Neither 16 Note: Don’t know / Refused answers not shown.Source: AP-GfK Poll, February, 16-20, 2012
  • 18. Next Steps 17
  • 19. PLURALITY OF AMERICANS THINK LAW MAY NEED SMALL TWEAKS BUT WANT TO SEE HOW IT WORKS; OVER A THIRD WANT IT REPEALED Turning to the health care law passed last year, what is your opinion of the law? It should be repealed. It may need small modifications, but we should see how it works. It should be left alone. 50% 46% 40% 37% 30% Should be repealed See how it works 20% Should be left alone 11% 10% 0% 18Source: Bloomberg News Poll, March 8-11, 2012 Note: “Unsure” answers not shown.
  • 20. Constitutionality 19
  • 21. FOUR IN TEN ARE UNSURE WHETHER THE LAW HAS BEEN OVERTURNED BY THE SUPREME COURT OR MISTAKENLY BELIEVE IT HAS BEEN OVERTURNED As far as you know, which comes It has been overturned closest to describing by the Supreme Court 14% the current status of and is no longer law the health reform law that was passed in 58% 2010? 28% It is still the Don’t law of the know/ Refused land 20Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Polls, February 29 – March 5, 2012
  • 22. MOST AMERICANS BELIEVE THE INDIVIDUAL MANDATE IS UNCONSTITUTIONAL As you may know, the Supreme Court will hear arguments next month concerning a requirement in the healthcare law that every American must buy health insurance or pay a fine. Regardless of whether you favor or oppose the law, do you think this requirement is constitutional or unconstitutional? All Americans 20% 72% Democrats 37% 56% Independents 21% 70% Republicans 6% 94% Think healthcare law is a good thing 38% 54% Think healthcare law is a bad thing 4% 94% Constitutional Unconstitutional 21Source: USA Today/Gallup Poll, February 20-21, 2012 Note: Don’t know / Refused answers not shown.
  • 23. AS HEALTH CARE LAW’S TRIAL APPROACHES, PLURALITY OF AMERICANS SAY DITCH ENTIRE LAW The U.S. Supreme Court will hear arguments about the health care law later this month. Of these three options, which would you prefer to have the Supreme Court do: 1) uphold the entire law, 2) throw out the part of the law that requires individuals to have coverage and keep the rest of the law, or 3) throw out the entire law? 42% 26% 25% 7% Uphold the law Throw out the Throw out the whole No opinion mandate law 22Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, March 7-10, 2012
  • 24. IF SUPREME COURT RULES AGAINST ACA, SIX IN TEN WANT LAWMAKERS TO KEEP WORKING ON PROPOSALS If the Supreme Court rules that the health care law is unconstitutional, do you think lawmakers should focus on developing new proposals to improve Americans’ access to affordable health care, or should they stop talking about health care and focus on other national problems? All Americans 60% 34% Democrats 72% 25% Independents 57% 35% Republicans 52% 43% Focus on developing new proposals to improve Stop talking about health care and focus on Americans’ access to affordable health care other national problems 23Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Polls, February 29 – March 5, 2012
  • 25. The Players 24
  • 26. MAJORITY CONTINUE TO DISAPPROVE OF OBAMA’S HANDLING OF HEALTH CARE Obama Job Approval – Health Care As of March 24 OPPOSE: 50% FAVOR: 42% President Obama signs health care reform bill into law on March 23, 2010Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of March 24, 2012
  • 27. DEMOCRATS SEEN AS BETTER ON HEALTHCARE THAN REPUBLICANS And which party could Both do a better job of Republican Democratic Neither DK/Ref Equally [DEALING WITH Party Party (vol.) (vol.) (vol.) HEALTHCARE]? Mar 7-11, 2012 35% 49% 1% 7% 8% Sep 22-Oct 4, 2011 38% 49% 3% 4% 6% Mar 30-Apr 3, 2011 40% 42% 6% 5% 7% Oct 13-18, 2010 32% 39% 5% 11% 13% Aug 25-Sep 6, 2010 36% 45% 5% 7% 6% 26Source: Pew Research Center For The People & The Press, March 7-11, 2012
  • 28. GPG ResearchGPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative andquantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform messagedevelopment and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitorcritical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex health care topics withdiverse audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniquesto uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’messaging and strategy.For more information about this presentation or to find out moreabout GPG’s research capabilities contact: Susan Kannel (skannel@gpgdc.com) I Chris Gallup (cgallup@gpgdc.com) 27