Recombinant DNA technology (Immunological screening)
Intro sustainable energy
1. Sustainable Energy:
An Unbiased Review of Options
Session 1: Motivations for
Change
Brian Sowerby
Former Chief Research Scientist
CSIRO Minerals
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
2. Course Purpose
The course is aimed at equipping high school science,
technology and geography teachers to tackle the
complex issues of sustainable energy and climate
change.
The course aims to provide a balanced overview of the
various options required to provide energy in the future
while minimising environmental damage.
The focus of the course will be on providing technical
details on the various technologies and on conducting a
realistic evaluation of these technologies.
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
3. Course Structure
Session 1: Motivations for Change.
Why change our energy production and use?
Session 2: Energy Consumption.
Review our energy consumption now and in the future.
Session 3: Renewable Technologies.
Could we meet our energy demands using renewables such as wind, solar
(photovoltaic, thermal, biomass), hydroelectric, geothermal, wave and tide?
Session 4: Coal, Gas and Nuclear.
Can fossil fuels sustainably meet our energy demands and are low emission
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
technologies feasible?
What about nuclear energy?
Session 5: Future Energy Plans
Energy plans that add up
Session 6: Resources for Teachers
4. Key References
Primary sources of unbiased information, graphs, charts, etc
David MacKay, “Sustainable Energy – Without the Hot
Air”
ATSE (Australian Academy of Technological Sciences
and Engineering) publications, seminars, etc
IEA (International Energy Agency) publications
All above are available free on line
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
5. Session 1: Outline
Global energy situation
Motivations for Change
Energy resources
Energy security
Environmental impact
Climate Change
Carbon in the environment
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
6. Global Situation
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
Population Growth
7 billion in 2011 rising to 9 billion by 2050.
all aspiring to improved quality of life.
Market Economy
economic growth has delivered untold wealth & power -
to some!
but under current rules, it may damage the planet.
Poverty & Inequality
15% of world population enjoy 80% of world GDP.
43% live on less than $2 per day.
inequality in the developed world is increasing.
8. Primary Energy Consumption by Sector
in Australia, 2005-6 (Garnaut, 2008)
Note: Aluminium smelting uses about 15% of electricity production in Australia.
Aluminium mainly for export.
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
11. Scale of the Problem
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
A Few Statistics
Current oil consumption ~ 1000 barrels/second
China is building ~ Two 500 MW power plants/week
Renewables (solar, wind, biomass,…) account for less
than 1% of the world energy supply.
Australia emits about 560 million tonnes of CO2 per
year. Global emissions about 45,000 million tonnes.
Every person in Australia emits, on average, about
26 t CO2 /person/year.
12. Energy – Three Motivations for Change
1) Fossil Fuels are a Finite Resource
Possible that cheap oil and cheap gas will run out in our
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
lifetime
Fossil fuels are a valuable resource for manufacture of
plastics, etc
2) Security of Energy Supply
Availability and prices of supplies
Political stability of suppliers
Competition from growing economies
1) Environmental Impact of Energy Usage
Global climate change (CO2, CH4,…)
Urban/Region pollution (NOx, SOx, Particulates,…)
Water supply
13. Reason to Change 1: Declining Oil Discoveries
Source: http://www.energybulletin.net/node/41311
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
15. World Oil Production
Peak oil is the point in time when demand exceeds supply. International
Energy Agency (IEA) estimates a 2030 peak.
Source: IEA http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2010/key_graphs.pdf
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
16. Fossil Fuel Reserve-to-Production Ratios
Global reserve-to-production ratios (RPR) for each
resource is an indicator of the time remaining before
each resource is completely exhausted.
Fuel Unit Reserves Annual
Usage
(2005)
RPR
(years)
Oil Trillions
barrels
1.2-2 0.03 40-70
Coal Billions
tons
998 6 164
Natural
Gas
Quads 6370 108 59
Source: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/pdf/0484(2011).pdf
17. Australian Situation
Australia is currently doing
well out of energy,
consuming about one-third
of what it produces and
exporting the balance
(mainly in form of coal)
By 2030, Australia could be
importing 100 per cent of its
oil as its known domestic
reserves run out
ECOS magazine Issue 139
explores Australia’s energy
resource options http://
www.treasurer.gov.au/DisplayDocs.aspx?pageID
=&doc=speeches/2006/001.htm&min=
phc
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
18. Reason to Change 2: Energy Security
Threats to energy security include
political instability of some energy producing
countries,
manipulation of energy supplies,
competition over energy sources and
attacks on supply infrastructure.
Energy independence important because of the
limited supplies, uneven distribution, and rising
costs of fossil fuels.
Example: As a direct result of the 1973 oil crisis,
France initiated a nuclear power program aimed
at generating all of France's electricity from
nuclear power.
19. Reason for Change 3:
Climate Change
Caused in Part by
Increasing CO2
Sea level rise
Global temperature rise
Warming oceans
Shrinking ice sheets
Declining Arctic sea ice
Glacial retreat
Extreme events
Ocean acidification
20. Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
Debate
Wide range of views regarding a
possible future energy crisis, e.g.
Goodstein “Out of Gas” predicts an oil
crisis when production can’t meet
demand – perhaps as soon as 2020 or
2025.
Lomborg “The Skeptical
Environmentalist” (2001) - no energy
crisis – recently changed view – “Smart
Solutions to Climate Change” (2010)
Lovelock “The Revenge of Gaia” - too late
to establish sustainable development.
21. Climate Models
Climate models use
quantitative methods to
simulate the interactions of the
atmosphere, oceans, land &
ice.
All climate models take
account of incoming energy
(chiefly visible and short-wave
(near) infrared, as well as
outgoing energy as long wave
(far) infrared radiation from the
earth.
They all predict global
warming due to anthropogenic
increases in CO2
Source: http://
www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/futuretc.html
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
22. CO2 Concentrations in the Atmosphere
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
Source: MacKay, D. 2009
27. Ocean Temperatures
The best measure of global warming is ocean heat
content as it absorbs nearly 90 per cent of
additional heat trapped by greenhouse gases.
Ocean heat
content:Thick
blue line
Ocean surface
temperature:
Thick aqua line
Domingues, C.M., Church, J.A., White, N.J., Gleckler, P.J., Wijffels, S.E., Barker, P.M. and Dunn, J.R. (2008). Improved
estimates of upper-ocean warming and multi-decadal sea-level rise. Nature 453, doi:10.1038, pp. 1090–1094.
28. Observed and modeled Arctic sea-ice
extent (Source: IPCC)
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
30. Climate Changes in the Past
Ice ages have occurred in ~100,000 year
cycle for the past 700,000 years
Changes in the orbital cycles of the earth
(shape of orbit, tilt of earth, wobble) may
be a major cause of these ice ages.
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
31. Ice Core Data (Pettit et al, 1999)
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2011
32. Climate Change: Oceans
One major cause of regional climate variation is
ocean currents
Oceans huge heat capacity (~1000 x
atmosphere)
Oceans contain ~60 x carbon in atmosphere and
~20 x terrestial carbon
pH of ocean gradually increasing (by 0.1 since
1750)
Sea level variations by ~120 m in ice ages.
Since 1870 sea levels have risen ~200 mm
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
33. Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
Carbon:
Where is it?
Note:
1 tonne CO2 contains
0.27 tonnes of C
Source: MacKay, D. 2009
34. Carbon:
Where is it going?
Equilibration between CO2
in atmosphere and ocean surface
is rapid (~25 years to absorb half
added pulse from atmosphere)
However oceans circulate slowly
~1000 years for deep ocean water
Note carbon-14 from bomb tests in
60s and 70s has penetrated to depth
of only ~400m
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
Source: MacKay, D. 2009
35. References: Climate Change
Australian Academy of Science (2010), ‘The Science of Climate
Change: Questions and Answers’; http://
www.science.org.au/policy/climatechange.html
Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering
(ATSE), 32nd Annual Symposium, ‘Rising to the Challenge of
Climate Change’, Nov 2009.
http://www.atse.org.au/resource-centre/func-startdown/107/
The Copenhagen Diagnosis: Climate Science Report, http://
www.copenhagendiagnosis.org/
Royal Society (2010), ‘Climate Change: A Summary of the
Science’,
http://royalsociety.org/policy/publications/2010/climate-change-summary- ‘Seven Answers to Climate Contrarian Nonsense’ by John Rennie
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id
=seven-answers-to-climate-contrarian-nonsense&SID=mail&sc=
emailfriend
36. Some Climate Change Resources for Teachers
Australian Institute of Physics, Victoria Branch Education Committee,
Teacher Action on Climate Change, http://www.vicphysics.org/index.php?id
=145
CSIRO Carbonkids (Educational Service),
http://www.csiro.au/resources/CarbonKids-program.html
CSIRO CarbonKids: Unit of Work ‘Understanding Climate Change’, http://
www.csiro.au/files/files/pqnj.pdf
CSIRO Teacher Resources Overview, http://www.csiro.au/org/ps2m.html
American Association for the Advancement of Science, Global Climate
Change Resources http://www.aaas.org/news/press_room/climate_change/
‘Seven Answers to Climate Contrarian Nonsense’ by John Rennie
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id
=seven-answers-to-climate-contrarian-nonsense&SID=mail&sc=emailfriend
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
37. Australian Institute of Physics, Victoria Branch,
Teacher Action on Climate Change, http://
www.vicphysics.org/index.php?id=145
A series of papers and presentations on climate change:
Discussion paper on Climate Change
What's wrong with climate deniers
Climate Science - How do we decide
Countering Climate Confusion
The Physics of the Climate
An Introduction to the Science of the Climate
Science Teachers for Climate Awareness
The Science of Climate Change
Could Climate Sceptics be Right?
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
38. CSIRO Teacher Resources Overview,
http://www.csiro.au/org/ps2m.html
CarbonKids is an innovative educational program for
primary and middle schooling years that combines the
latest in environmental science with education in
sustainability. It provides a range of resources for both
primary and secondary school communities to better
understand climate change and encourage sustainability.
http://www.csiro.au/resources/CarbonKids-program.html
Document ‘Understanding Climate Change’, http://
www.csiro.au/files/files/pqnj.pdf
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012
39. Australia Institute, 2009. Nine modules on Teaching Climate
Change compiled by staff at The Australia Institute in conjunction
with high school teachers and university academics who work in
the field of climate change. http://
www.teachingclimatechange.com.au/
Module 1 The science of climate change
Module 2 The impacts of climate change
Module 3 Australia’s emissions
Module 4 International negotiations
Module 5 The ethics of climate change
Module 6 The economics of climate change
Module 7 Forms of energy generation
Module 8 Solutions to reduce Australia’s emissions
Module 9 Nuclear energy
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2011
40. Session 1: Summary
Three strong motivations to change from our high
dependence on fossil fuels as our energy source
Fossil Fuels are a Finite Resource
Environmental Impact of Energy Usage
Current global warming substantially arises from greenhouse
gas emissions from the burning of fossil fuels
Security of Energy Supply
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2011
41. Question for Discussion
Of the three motivations to change (finite
resources, climate change, energy security)
which do you think is the most important and
why
For individuals?
For Australia?
For the World?
Discuss in groups
Brian Sowerby, TTA Workshop, 2012