Wall Street on 4G Investment<br />Jim Baker, Managing Partner<br />Xenventure<br />
Jim Baker<br />Managing Partner<br />jim@xenventure.com<br /><ul><li>Unbiased, vendor-independent wireless consulting
Market analysis, technical design, and systems implementation
Strategic seed capital financing for small, fast-growth companies
Currently project managing Wi-Fi/4G pilot on Silicon Valley light rail</li></li></ul><li>Fact #1 – 2011 will be the breako...
Sprint/Clearwire expands 4G WiMAX in LA, San Francisco, NYC</li></li></ul><li>Fact #1 – 2011 will be the breakout year for...
Sprint/Clearwire expands 4G WiMAX in LA, San Francisco, NYC
AT&T and T-Mobile pressured into ‘creative’ HSPA marketing campaigns</li></li></ul><li>Fact #1 – 2011 will be the breakout...
Sprint/Clearwire expands 4G WiMAX in LA, San Francisco, NYC
AT&T and T-Mobile pressured into ‘creative’ HSPA marketing campaigns
LightSquared plans hybrid LTE/satellite network by year end</li></li></ul><li>Fact #1 – 2011 will be the breakout year for...
A Tale of Two Carriers<br />
Wall Street Outlook – Verizon (NYSE:VZ)<br />31%<br />Last 12 months<br /><ul><li>Verizon had to upgrade its network to 4G...
Success (or not) of CDMA iPhone will be of greatest concern to investors
CEO Seidenberg says 4G may replace DSL</li></li></ul><li>Wall Street Outlook – Clearwire (NASDAQ:CLWR)<br />62%<br />Last ...
“The hope that 4G wireless networks would help the industry is fading” [Barron’s]
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  • 4 gwe baker

    1. 1. Wall Street on 4G Investment<br />Jim Baker, Managing Partner<br />Xenventure<br />
    2. 2. Jim Baker<br />Managing Partner<br />jim@xenventure.com<br /><ul><li>Unbiased, vendor-independent wireless consulting
    3. 3. Market analysis, technical design, and systems implementation
    4. 4. Strategic seed capital financing for small, fast-growth companies
    5. 5. Currently project managing Wi-Fi/4G pilot on Silicon Valley light rail</li></li></ul><li>Fact #1 – 2011 will be the breakout year for 4G<br /><ul><li>Verizon launched 4G LTE in 38+ markets in December</li></li></ul><li>Fact #1 – 2011 will be the breakout year for 4G<br /><ul><li>Verizon launched 4G LTE in 38+ markets in December
    6. 6. Sprint/Clearwire expands 4G WiMAX in LA, San Francisco, NYC</li></li></ul><li>Fact #1 – 2011 will be the breakout year for 4G<br /><ul><li>Verizon launched 4G LTE in 38+ markets in December
    7. 7. Sprint/Clearwire expands 4G WiMAX in LA, San Francisco, NYC
    8. 8. AT&T and T-Mobile pressured into ‘creative’ HSPA marketing campaigns</li></li></ul><li>Fact #1 – 2011 will be the breakout year for 4G<br /><ul><li>Verizon launched 4G LTE in 38+ markets in December
    9. 9. Sprint/Clearwire expands 4G WiMAX in LA, San Francisco, NYC
    10. 10. AT&T and T-Mobile pressured into ‘creative’ HSPA marketing campaigns
    11. 11. LightSquared plans hybrid LTE/satellite network by year end</li></li></ul><li>Fact #1 – 2011 will be the breakout year for 4G<br />San Jose, California – 7.5Mbps down, 900Kbps up<br />Clear 4G WiMAX, consumer subscription<br />
    12. 12. A Tale of Two Carriers<br />
    13. 13. Wall Street Outlook – Verizon (NYSE:VZ)<br />31%<br />Last 12 months<br /><ul><li>Verizon had to upgrade its network to 4G as 3G EV-DO was so dated
    14. 14. Success (or not) of CDMA iPhone will be of greatest concern to investors
    15. 15. CEO Seidenberg says 4G may replace DSL</li></li></ul><li>Wall Street Outlook – Clearwire (NASDAQ:CLWR)<br />62%<br />Last 12 months<br /><ul><li>Clearwire’s outlook is looking extremely poor, hobbled by a bad 4G retail strategy
    16. 16. “The hope that 4G wireless networks would help the industry is fading” [Barron’s]
    17. 17. Questions remain over Clearwire’s ability to raise finance for network build</li></li></ul><li>Fact #2 – Apps will drive 4G subscriber uptake<br /><ul><li>Devices get smarter – GPS, video & still cameras
    18. 18. Media-heavy apps need faster networks
    19. 19. Consumer desire for media will drive 4G adoption
    20. 20. 4G delivers bandwidth, QoS, improved architecture</li></li></ul><li>Fact #2 – Apps will drive 4G subscriber uptake<br />4G bandwidth demand over next five years<br />
    21. 21. Fact #2 – Apps will drive 4G subscriber uptake<br />“Google's strategic initiatives in 2011[are] all about mobile.<br />First, we must focus on developing the underlying fast networks<br />(generally called LTE)…which will usher in new and creative applications,<br />mostly entertainment and social, for these phone platforms.”<br />Eric Schmidt<br />Chairman & CEO, Google<br />Harvard Business Review<br />
    22. 22. Fact #3 – Investment is a crapshoot<br /><ul><li>Carriers having 4G does not mean they’re a good investment
    23. 23. New 4G entrants are private, and relying on non-Wall Street funds
    24. 24. App sector is dominated by small, agile, private companies
    25. 25. Funding comes from small groups of super-angels and Silicon Valley VCs
    26. 26. Very hard to get in on early rounds in hot start-ups
    27. 27. Many are acquired way before a public offering and Wall Street</li></ul>“Does ‘4G’ mean it’s four times gooder ?” My seven year old son<br />
    28. 28. Take Away<br />Valued at $3.7 billion<br />Valued at $87 billion<br />Valued at $15 billion<br />
    29. 29. Take Away<br />Valued at $3.7 billion<br />Valued at $87 billion<br />Valued at $15 billion<br />Valued at the price of a house<br />

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